AI's Climate Impact: Energy Consumption vs. Potential Benefits

Why the climate promises of AI sound a lot like carbon offsets

The finding echoes a point that prominent figures in the AI sector have made as well to justify, at least implicitly, the gigawatts' worth of electricity demand that new data centers are placing on regional grid systems across the world. Notably, in an essay last year, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote that AI will deliver "astounding triumphs," such as "fixing the climate," while offering the world "nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy." There are reasonable arguments to suggest that AI tools may eventually help reduce emissions, as the IEA report underscores. But what we know for sure is that they're driving up energy demand and emissions today -- especially in the regional pockets where data centers are clustering. So far, these facilities, which generally run around the clock, are substantially powered through natural-gas turbines, which produce significant levels of planet-warming emissions. Electricity demands are rising so fast that developers are proposing to build new gas plants and convert retired coal plants to supply the buzzy industry. The other thing we know is that there are better, cleaner ways of powering these facilities already, including geothermal plants, nuclear reactors, hydroelectric power, and wind or solar projects coupled with significant amounts of battery storage. The trade-off is that these facilities may cost more to build or operate, or take longer to get up and running. There's something familiar about the suggestion that it's okay to build data centers that run on fossil fuels today because AI tools will help the world drive down emissions eventually. It recalls the purported promise of carbon credits: that it's fine for a company to carry on polluting at its headquarters or plants, so long as it's also funding, say, the planting of trees that will suck up a commensurate level of carbon dioxide. Unfortunately, we've seen again and again that such programs often overstate any climate benefits, doing little to alter the balance of what's going into or coming out of the atmosphere. But in the case of what we might call "AI offsets," the potential to overstate the gains may be greater, because the promised benefits wouldn't meaningfully accrue for years or decades. Plus, there's no market or regulatory mechanism to hold the industry accountable if it ends up building huge data centers that drive up emissions but never delivers on these climate claims. The IEA report outlines instances where industries are already using AI in ways that could help drive down emissions, including detecting methane leaks in oil and gas infrastructure, making power plants and manufacturing facilities more efficient, and reducing energy consumption in buildings. AI has also shown early promise in materials discovery, helping to speed up the development of novel battery electrolytes. Some hope the technology could deliver advances in solar materials, nuclear power, or other clean energy technologies and improve climate science, extreme weather forecasting, and disaster response, as other studies have noted.

Fears of AI speeding up climate change "overstated": new report

Why it matters: Weighing AI's electricity thirst against ways it can help cut emissions is a wild card in the global energy and carbon future. Driving the news: The International Energy Agency just dropped a detailed analysis of the AI-energy-climate nexus. Some major findings... Stunning stat: "A typical AI-focused data centre consumes as much electricity as 100,000 households, but the largest ones under construction today will consume 20 times as much." The intrigue: IEA doesn't really see AI as a climate devil or savior. Reality check: Nobody really knows the future energy mix, AI's climate benefits, the data center growth path and more. The word "bubble" is surfacing. The bottom line: "The widespread adoption of existing AI applications could lead to emissions reductions that are far larger than emissions from data centres -- but also far smaller than what is needed to address climate change," IEA finds.

Tech 24 - Are claims that AI is accelerating climate change 'overstated'?

One concern around artificial intelligence is its voracious appetite for energy. Electricity demand for data centres specialised in AI will quadruple in the next five years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. But as for claims that AI is accelerating climate change through carbon emissions, the report calls them "overstated". Will this transformative technology guzzle so much gas and coal that it has a devastating impact on our planet? Or will it bring about efficiencies and innovations that allow us to reduce our emissions? Or could some efficiency increases, for instance in the oil and gas sector, actually lead to more emissions? There is no simple answer, but we thought it would be a good idea to ask one of the lead authors of the report at the International Energy Agency, Thomas Spencer. He spoke to us on Tech 24.