BigBear.ai: Rising Defense AI Stock Sparks Investor Interest Amid Growth Challenges

BigBear.ai's big question: Can a $1.9 billion company turn small investors into millionaires?

BigBear.ai stock: is this government-focused AI player really worth your money?- BigBear.ai stock has caught attention in the artificial intelligence investment world thanks to its pure-play position in the AI sector and its close ties with government contracts. With a modest market cap of $1.9 billion and a concentration on defense and public sector services, the company seems positioned for growth. But is BigBear.ai the millionaire-making stock investors are hoping for? While some major contracts and rising backlog offer promise, its slow revenue growth and high customer concentration raise key questions about its long-term upside. As of July 2, 2025, BigBear.ai stock (BBAI) is trading at $7.65, marking a notable upswing in investor interest. The day's trading session saw the stock reach highs of $7.83 and lows around $6.46, with over 218 million shares exchanged -- a massive spike in volume. This comes after an earlier 25% price jump this week and a 10% rally in early June, driven by new military-tech partnerships and bullish sentiment around AI in national defense. Year-to-date, BBAI is up more than 40%, positioning it as one of the more volatile but talked-about AI stocks of the moment. Let's break it down: for BigBear.ai to make you a millionaire from a $10,000 investment, the stock needs to grow 100 times in value. That's a steep ask for any company -- especially one with BigBear.ai's current numbers. As of now, BigBear.ai has a market valuation of about $1.9 billion. Reaching a 100x return would require a market cap of nearly $190 billion, something that seems far-fetched given its slow momentum. Despite being in a hot industry like AI, BigBear.ai only managed 5% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching $34.8 million in the quarter. By comparison, companies like Palantir Technologies, which also focuses heavily on government contracts, saw 45% growth in U.S. government revenue, totaling $373 million in the same quarter. That's a big gap -- and a clear sign that BigBear.ai has work to do. A big part of the momentum comes from BigBear.ai's expanding footprint in defense-related AI technology. The company is involved in Project Linchpin -- a Department of Defense initiative to integrate artificial intelligence into U.S. Army systems -- and has contracts with major players like L3Harris. According to the company's Q1 results: These numbers reflect BigBear.ai's growing demand in the defense sector, even if some analysts expected higher revenue guidance closer to $194M. One of the biggest risks for BigBear.ai stock is its high customer concentration. In 2024, 52% of its revenue came from just four clients, most of which are unnamed government departments. That's risky. If one of those clients cuts back on spending or switches vendors, it could create serious financial instability. Still, not all hope is lost. BigBear.ai recently landed a five-year, $165 million contract with the U.S. Army to work on the Global Force Information Management-Objective Environment project. This contract alone brings in about $33 million annually, which is significant when total revenue over the last 12 months was $160 million. That deal is a solid win, but the company needs more of them -- and fast. In the fast-paced world of artificial intelligence, 5% annual growth is hard to get excited about. Investors expect AI companies to scale quickly, especially given the current surge in AI adoption. BigBear.ai's slow growth has made many investors skeptical, especially when better-known companies like Palantir are delivering near double-digit or higher growth consistently. There is some hope on the horizon: BigBear.ai's contract backlog grew 30% year-over-year to $385 million. This means the company is winning new deals -- it just hasn't started generating revenue from many of them yet. The real question is when (or if) those deals will start converting into actual income. One argument in favor of BigBear.ai stock is its valuation. The stock trades at around 11 times sales, which is on the lower end for a software-focused AI company. Many AI stocks trade at 10 to 20 times sales, but those usually come with higher growth rates. So, while the valuation may appear low, it's important to ask why. If BigBear.ai starts to deliver faster revenue growth -- say in the double digits -- it could justify a higher valuation and deliver strong returns. But until that happens, the low price might just reflect the company's uncertain outlook. Given the current performance, many analysts believe there are better opportunities than BigBear.ai right now. According to Motley Fool, BigBear.ai didn't make the cut in their list of the 10 best stocks to buy now. While that doesn't mean it's a bad stock, it suggests there may be other companies with stronger growth, better diversification, or more robust business models. BigBear.ai could still prove its doubters wrong -- especially if it keeps landing large-scale government contracts. But for now, it's a stock with more questions than answers. Despite the buzz, BigBear.ai isn't without its issues. While the company's strong defense AI contracts are a huge plus, the real concern lies in execution -- can BigBear.ai deliver consistent, scalable growth? BigBear.ai stock (NYSE: BBAI) is often in the spotlight among artificial intelligence investments, thanks to its pure-play approach in AI and strong focus on government contracts. With a relatively small market cap of $1.9 billion, it doesn't take massive growth for the stock to double or triple in value. But for it to truly be a millionaire-maker investment? That's where the story gets complicated. BigBear.ai operates in a promising industry and has a unique niche in government-focused AI solutions. However, it faces low revenue growth, high customer dependence, and stiff competition from bigger players like Palantir. While the recent U.S. Army contract is a strong signal of trust in its capabilities, it will need more wins -- and much faster growth -- to become a true millionaire-maker stock. Investors looking at BigBear.ai stock should weigh the upside carefully against the risks. Until the company proves it can consistently grow revenue and diversify its customer base, it may be more of a speculative bet than a solid investment. Q1. Is BigBear.ai stock a good long-term investment? BigBear.ai stock has potential but needs stronger growth to be reliable long-term. Q2. What makes BigBear.ai different from other AI stocks? BigBear.ai focuses mainly on government AI contracts, unlike many commercial-focused AI firms.

Is This Defense AI Stock The Next Palantir? - BigBear.ai Hldgs (NYSE:BBAI), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR)

Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR has become synonymous with defense-grade artificial intelligence, anchored by its government contracts, profitable growth and recent S&P 500 inclusion. But another name is now sparking serious interest: BigBear.ai Holdings Inc BBAI. BigBear.ai's Big Moment BigBear.ai surged 2.2% on Thursday to $7.73, with trading volume skyrocketing 306% -- over 201 million shares. The stock is up over 14% over the past five trading days. Its AI platform VANE just featured in the U.S. Army's Project Convergence Capstone 5, and a fresh $165 million defense contract adds to its $384.9 million backlog. Read Also: BigBear.AI Stock Is Trending Again: What's Driving The Recent Momentum? Social media buzz, including comparisons to Palantir, suggests momentum is building among retail traders, especially given BigBear.ai's lower valuation. David Vs. Goliath ... With A Catch BigBear.ai's fundamentals are still in build mode. It posted a $8 million net loss last quarter and 52% of its revenue came from just four clients. But its P/S ratio of 12x is a fraction of Palantir's eye-popping 107x (per Benzinga Pro data) -- an appealing metric for value-oriented investors. Palantir, on the other hand, reported $105 million in net income in the first quarter, up 83% year-over-year. Its platforms, Gotham and Foundry, are widely used across defense and commercial sectors. Yet valuation risk looms: a P/E of 584x and tariff uncertainty could slow growth. Technical Setup: BigBear.ai Riding Momentum, While Palantir Sails Through Chart created using Benzinga Pro BigBear.ai is riding a momentum wave rising above all key moving averages, as traders appear bullish on the stock. The stock is pressing against resistance at $8.50 with support near $7.50. RSI (relative strength index) is at 77.89, technically overbought but showing strength and supported by a positive MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) reading of 0.97. Word of caution around volatility, as beta at 3.05, is high. Chart created using Benzinga Pro Palantir trades around $138, above key moving averages but with volatility and pullback below short-term moving averages seen recently. Long-term remains strongly bullish with the 200-day average trading below the current price level. A neutral RSI at 55.35 and positive MACD at 2.60 lend further support. The Verdict For long-term investors, Palantir remains the established leader. But for those willing to take on more risk, BigBear.ai is shaping up to be a compelling upstart in the AI defense space. With the July 9 tariff decision looming, both stocks could see catalysts -- one from strength, the other from speculation. Read Next: Greed Mode On: Why Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir And Bitcoin Plays Could Rip Photo: Shutterstock BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings Inc$7.49-3.36%Stock Score Locked: Want to See it? Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock - anytime. Reveal Full ScoreEdge RankingsMomentum98.97GrowthNot AvailableQualityNot AvailableValue15.87Price TrendShortMediumLongOverviewPLTRPalantir Technologies Inc$137.912.64%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

BigBear.AI Stock Is Trending Again: What's Driving The Recent Momentum? - BigBear.ai Hldgs (NYSE:BBAI)

BigBear.ai Inc BBAI shares are up more than 32% over the past week despite a pullback on Monday. Here's what you need to know. What To Know: BigBear.ai shares have been rallying in recent weeks. The stock gained momentum last week after the company announced its participation in Project Convergence - Capstone 5 (PC-C5), an experiment allowing multinational forces to test Next Generation Command Control systems. BigBear.ai noted that its Virtual Anticipation Network (VANE) platform allowed multinational forces to identify emerging threats and gain situational awareness in the tests. Shares also got a boost after HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Scott Buck highlighted strong business momentum in a note, maintaining BigBear.ai with a Buy rating and raising the price target from $6 to $9. The HC Wainwright & Co. analyst said the momentum in BigBear.ai stock is being fueled by new customers and contracts paired with strong secular AI defense and security trends. Buck noted that the company had a total backlog of $384.9 million at the end of the first quarter. "Revenue growth expectations, double-digit in 2026, are supported by the company's $384.9M backlog as of 1Q25, as well as early and encouraging signs that the company's products are resonating across key growth verticals," the analyst said. The recent business momentum, including deployments of biometric software and strategic partnerships in the UAE and with Analogic, has given Buck "greater confidence" in the company's ability to deliver strong revenue growth. "In addition, recent balance sheet improvements provide flexibility and could allow the business to pursue accretive M&A, accelerating revenue growth and timeline to more consistent profitability," the HC Wainwright & Co. analyst said. The $9 target from HC Wainwright & Co is the Street-high price target, according to Benzinga analyst data. BigBear.ai has a Street-low target of $3 and an average rating of Overweight. BBAI Price Action: BigBear.ai shares were down 4.9% at $7.37 at the time of publication Monday, according to Benzinga Pro. Read Next: Oracle Offers Deep Discounts To US Government On AI, Cloud And Database Tools: Report Photo: PJ McDonnell/Shutterstock.com BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings Inc$7.41-4.33%Stock Score Locked: Want to See it? Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock - anytime. Reveal Full ScoreEdge RankingsMomentum98.97GrowthNot AvailableQualityNot AvailableValue15.87Price TrendShortMediumLongOverviewMarket News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Is Soaring This Week: What's Going On? - BigBear.ai Hldgs (NYSE:BBAI)

Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings Inc BBAI are continuing their volatile surge Thursday, propelled by a potent mix of new defense contracts, a favorable analyst rating and market pressure from high short interest. What To Know: The artificial intelligence firm this week announced its successful use of its VANE platform in Project Convergence - Capstone 5, a multinational defense experiment that showcased the technology's ability to give forces situational awareness. Following this, HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and raised its price target from $6 to $9. Analyst Scott Buck cited the company's strong business momentum, a growing backlog valued at $384.9 million and positive trends for AI in the defense sector. Fueling the stock's sharp rise is a significant short interest, with about 35% of the company's available shares being sold short. This has made BBAI a candidate for a short squeeze, where rising prices force short sellers to buy back shares, further accelerating the stock's upward climb. Other recent developments include the deployment of its biometric passenger software in major U.S. airports and a strategic partnership to expand into the United Arab Emirates. However, some investors could remain cautious, recalling a similar squeeze in February that was followed by a 60% crash in the stock's value. Benzinga Edge Rankings: According to Benzinga's Edge stock rankings, BigBear.ai shows exceptional price momentum with a score of 98.78, reflecting the stock's powerful recent trend. However, the company scores very low on value with a rating of 15.84, suggesting it may be considered overvalued at its current price. Growth and quality metrics were not available. Price Action: According to data from Benzinga Pro, BBAI shares are trading higher by 1.73% to $7.699 Thursday morning. Shares are now higher by 106% over the trailing month. BBAI has a 52-week high of $10.36 and a 52-week low of $1.16. Read Also: Stock Of The Day: Short Squeeze In BigBear.ai? How To Buy BBAI Stock Besides going to a brokerage platform to purchase a share - or fractional share - of stock, you can also gain access to shares either by buying an exchange traded fund (ETF) that holds the stock itself, or by allocating yourself to a strategy in your 401(k) that would seek to acquire shares in a mutual fund or other instrument. For example, in BigBear.ai's case, it is in the Information Technology sector. An ETF will likely hold shares in many liquid and large companies that help track that sector, allowing an investor to gain exposure to the trends within that segment. Image: Shutterstock BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings Inc $7.641.12% Stock Score Locked: Want to See it? Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock - anytime. Reveal Full Score Edge Rankings Momentum 98.78 Growth Not Available Quality Not Available Value 15.84 Price Trend Short Medium Long Overview Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Is Up 55% Over The Past Week: What's Going On? - BigBear.ai Hldgs (NYSE:BBAI)

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc BBAI shares are continuing their volatile surge Wednesday, fueled by a combination of new defense contracts, an analyst upgrade and high short interest. What To Know: On Tuesday, the artificial intelligence firm announced its successful participation in Project Convergence - Capstone 5, a multinational defense experiment. The company's VANE platform was utilized to help forces gain situational awareness and identify emerging threats, demonstrating the real-world application of its AI technology. This development prompted HC Wainwright & Co. to reiterate a Buy rating on Tuesday, raising its price target from $6 to $9. Analyst Scott Buck cited strong business momentum, a growing backlog of $384.9 million and favorable trends in AI for defense and security. The positive news compounds momentum from Monday, where shares soared partly due to a substantial 44.85% short interest, making it a candidate for a short squeeze. Earlier in June, BigBear.ai also announced the deployment of its biometric passenger processing software at major U.S. airports like JFK and LAX, a result of its Pangiam acquisition. The company is also expanding internationally, forging a strategic partnership with Easy Lease PJSC to enter the United Arab Emirates market, marking a significant step in its global growth strategy. Price Action: According to data from Benzinga Pro, BBAI shares are trading higher by 13.8% to $7.57 Wednesday morning. The stock is now higher by some 55% over the trailing five sessions. BBAI has a 52-week high of $10.36 and a 52-week low of $1.16. Read Also: BigBear.ai Deploys Enhanced Passenger Processing Biometric Technology at Major Ports of Entry, including U.S. and International Airports How To Buy BBAI Stock By now you're likely curious about how to participate in the market for BigBear.ai - be it to purchase shares, or even attempt to bet against the company. Buying shares is typically done through a brokerage account. You can find a list of possible trading platforms here. Many will allow you to buy "fractional shares," which allows you to own portions of stock without buying an entire share. In the case of BigBear.ai, which is trading at $7.46 as of publishing time, $100 would buy you 13.4 shares of stock. If you're looking to bet against a company, the process is more complex. You'll need access to an options trading platform, or a broker who will allow you to "go short" a share of stock by lending you the shares to sell. The process of shorting a stock can be found at this resource. Otherwise, if your broker allows you to trade options, you can either buy a put option, or sell a call option at a strike price above where shares are currently trading - either way it allows you to profit off of the share price decline. Image: Shutterstock BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings Inc$7.5713.8%Stock Score Locked: Want to See it? Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock - anytime. Reveal Full ScoreEdge RankingsMomentum98.55GrowthNot AvailableQualityNot AvailableValue16.49Price TrendShortMediumLongOverviewMarket News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

Why BigBear.ai Stock Is Skyrocketing Again Today | The Motley Fool

BigBear.ai (BBAI 13.61%) stock is rocketing higher again in Wednesday's trading. The company's share price was up 14.7% as of 1:30 p.m. ET. At the same point in the day's trading, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The rally for defense artificial intelligence (AI) stocks is continuing in today's trading, and BigBear.ai is seeing bullish momentum in conjunction with the trend. The stock may also be benefiting from recently published analyst coverage. BigBear.ai stock has seen big gains as investors have piled into AI stocks with significant exposure to the defense industry. Its share price is now up 82% over the last month and 70% year to date. After sell-offs in yesterday's trading, tech sector valuations are moving higher again. President Donald Trump's announcement that a trade deal with Vietnam has been made is helping to push stocks higher. A report from ADP showing that the private sector unexpectedly lost 33,000 jobs last month is also helping to support expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. BigBear.ai may also be continuing to climb today thanks to recent analyst coverage and recent demonstrations for some of its AI software. In a note published yesterday, H.C. Wainwright reiterated a buy rating on the stock and raised its one-year price target from $6 per share to $9 per share. The price target still suggests upside of roughly 21% even with today's rally. H.C. Wainwright expects that the company's share price will continue to climb as the business moves toward management's targets for better performance in the second half of the year. Expectations for the stock have risen dramatically as the defense AI trade has come into vogue, but the business has a lot of proving to do after posting sales growth of just 5% last quarter.

Is BigBear.ai Stock a Buy Now?

BigBear.ai (BBAI 13.68%), a developer of AI modules for edge networks, has been a volatile investment over the past three and a half years. It went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Dec. 7, 2021. Its stock opened at $9.84 on the first day and eventually closed at a record high of $12.69 on April 13, 2022. But by Dec. 29, 2022, it had sunk to its lowest post-merger closing price of $0.63 per share. Like many other SPAC-backed start-ups, BigBear.ai overpromised and underdelivered. Prior to its merger, it claimed it could triple its revenue from $182 million in 2021 to $550 million in 2024. But in reality, its revenue grew from just $146 million in 2021 to $158 million in 2024. However, BigBear.ai's stock now trades at about $6.30 per share -- so a $1,000 investment at its post-merger low would be worth around $10,000 today. Let's see why this little AI stock bounced back, and whether or not it's still worth buying. What happened to BigBear.ai after its market debut? BigBear.ai develops three AI modules (Observe, Orient, and Dominate) that ingest data, identify trends, and predict future outcomes. Its modules can be plugged into edge networks, which intercept and process data faster than origin servers. It shares that data with bigger analytics companies like Palantir Technologies. That business model sounded promising, but BigBear.ai's growth stalled out as it struggled with tough macro headwinds, intense competition, and the bankruptcy of its top customer, Virgin Orbit. Its CEO, Reggie Brothers, who took the helm in 2020, stepped down in late 2022. Brothers' successor, Mandy Long, abandoned the company's original pre-merger forecasts, cut costs to stabilize its cash flow, and orchestrated its all-stock takeover of the AI vision firm Pangiam to expand its ecosystem and boost its revenue. This January, Pangiam's co-founder and CEO, Kevin McAleenan, succeeded Long as BigBear.ai's new CEO. Why did the bulls rush back to BigBear.ai? In 2024, BigBear.ai's revenue rose, its gross margin expanded, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved. Those improvements can be attributed to Long's cost-cutting efforts and its inclusion of Pangiam's higher-margin revenue. Data source: BigBear.ai. In the first quarter of 2025, BigBear.ai's revenue rose 5% year over year to $34.8 million, and its gross margin rose 20 basis points to 21.3%. But its adjusted EBITDA declined from negative $1.6 million to negative $7 million as it integrated Pangiam, ramped up its R&D spending, and dealt with the delayed funding of its government contracts. For the full year, BigBear.ai expects its revenue to rise 1%-14% to $160 million-$180 million with an adjusted EBITDA in the "negative single digit millions." That matches analysts' expectations for $168 million in revenue (6% growth) and a negative adjusted EBITDA of $7 million. With an enterprise value of $1.98 billion, it doesn't seem like a bargain at 12 times this year's sales. However, it impressed the bulls with the size of its backlog, which grew 30% year over year to $385 million in the first quarter of 2025 as it secured more government contracts. Those contracts include new digital ID and biometrics initiatives for the DHS, a modernization project for the U.S. military's Orion Decision Support Platform (DSP), and new supply chain projects. So as long as BigBear.ai can fulfill its existing orders and keep attracting more government and commercial clients, it should continue expanding. In 2026, analysts expect its revenue to rise 12% as its adjusted EBITDA turns positive for the full year. But is it the right time to buy BigBear.ai? BigBear.ai's growing backlog, the increased usage of its biometrics tools, and its expanding gross margins all suggest its business is stabilizing. Yet it's also more than doubled its number of shares since its market debut with its secondary offerings, its takeover of Pangiam, and its stock-based compensation -- and that dilution should persist for the foreseeable future. Its insiders also sold nearly 30 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months. That chilly insider sentiment could limit its upside potential. A few green shoots are certainly appearing for BigBear.ai, but I don't think it will break out of its niche anytime soon. Its stock might be driven higher by the near-term news about the usage of its biometrics at airports and other ports of entry, but it's still not a compelling long-term buy.

Why BigBear.ai's Impressive Backlog Comes With a Big Asterisk | The Motley Fool

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI 13.61%) has been a popular artificial intelligence (AI) stock for retail investors over the past year. During that time frame, the stock has risen by more than 370% (returns as of June 27). The company has been securing contracts and adding to its backlog. While its results haven't looked all that impressive, growth investors have often pointed to the backlog as a sign of the strong demand for its AI-powered solutions, which include cybersecurity, predictive intelligence, and digital identity management. Although that backlog has been growing, here's why you may want to take a closer look at it before buying the stock. BigBear's backlog is an estimate of how much the dollar value of its contracts is worth, of which it hasn't yet done the work. It can give investors a good indication of future growth opportunities and just how much business it is winning. Here's a breakdown of BigBear's backlog from its most recent quarterly filing, which was for the period ended March 31. Source: Company filings. Figures in thousands. The total backlog was just under $385 million. However, the bulk of that was unexercised options. Between priced and unpriced amounts, that totals nearly $295 million, or 77% of the company's entire backlog. Unexercised options relate to the company's "existing contracts if our customer elects to exercise all of the options available in the contract." As the name suggests, these are options based on the customer's discretion. Another significant line item is the unfunded backlog. This represents contract values "for which funding has not been appropriated or otherwise authorized." The funded backlog is the item that represents contracts where "funding is appropriated or otherwise authorized." This is the most solid and secure backlog, but it unfortunately accounts for just 5% of the total. The majority of the company's revenue and contracts are also from federal government contracts. Not only can this involve a lengthy approval process, but that also means federal budgets will inevitably play a big role in determining just how much of BigBear's backlog, particularly to do with unexercised options and underfunded amounts, will be realized. While it's a great sign that BigBear.ai is securing government contracts and adding to its backlog, relying on that may not be a good idea for investors, as it may not end up materializing or resulting in strong future growth. BigBear's growth has been limited in recent years. The company's revenue in 2024 totaled $158 million and rose by just 2%. And the year before that, its top line was flat. The company is anticipating a better year for 2025, with revenue ranging from $160 million to $180 million. The top end of that guidance would imply a growth rate of 14%, but that still isn't terribly exciting for an AI stock. And the worst-case scenario could see its growth rate remain in the low single digits. Then there's also the issue of its mounting losses. Over the trailing 12 months, BigBear.ai has incurred a loss of around $230 million. Based on fundamentals, its operations simply haven't looked impressive. BigBear is sometimes seen as the next Palantir Technologies, a top data analytics company involved with AI, which has secured many government contracts. But BigBear isn't profitable, growth has been lackluster, and its future is much more doubtful than Palantir's. The danger investors can make is in assuming that BigBear will follow a trajectory similar to Palantir's. The reality is that BigBear is a far riskier stock to own. While Palantir may be overvalued, BigBear is not only overvalued, but it's also highly unprofitable, and hasn't shown much growth. It may be tempting to want to buy BigBear shares in the hope the AI stock becomes the next Palantir, but for investors, the safest option may be to hold off on BigBear. This is a highly risky business that still has a lot to prove.

Why BigBear.ai Stock Skyrocketed 63.2% Last Month, and Has Kept Surging in July

BigBear.ai stock surged in June as macroeconomic indicators aligned to support a bullish rally for the market and investors poured into defense-focused artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The company's share price also got a big boost from positive analyst coverage. Bullish conditions aligned for BigBear.ai stock last month Investors bid up growth stocks last month, as comments from key Federal Reserve officials increasingly pointed to the possibility that the central bank will cut interest rates in July. Economic data along some key fronts suggested the Fed may be gearing up to deliver more rate cuts than previously anticipated this year, and some lessening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also helped support a rally for the broader market that added to gains for BigBear.ai stock. There were also some business-specific developments that helped support gains in the software specialist's valuation last month. The company announced new partnerships with Easy Lease PJSC and Vigilix Technology to accelerate the development and deployment of AI-based technologies, and a partnership with machine-vision specialist Analogic for threat detection at airports. BigBear.ai also announced that biometric identification stations from its Pangiam division had been deployed at major international airports. Why has BigBear.ai stock kept rallying in July? Despite some volatility, BigBear.ai stock has continued to see strong gains in July. As of this writing, the company's share price has risen 15.5% in the month and has benefited from positive analyst coverage and ongoing excitement surrounding defense AI opportunities. In new coverage published July 1, H.C. Wainwright maintained a buy rating on BigBear.ai and raised its one-year price target on the stock from $6 to $9 per share. The investment firm's analysts expect that winning new customers and landing expanded deals with clients already using its services will pave the way for the stock's rally to continue. As of this writing, hitting H.C. Wainwright's target of $9 per share would mean additional stock price gains of roughly 15%. Following recent gains, BigBear.ai stock is now up roughly 73% across 2025's trading -- but it's also still down 21% from its peak across the stretch. While the company's valuation has been surging and business performance is expected to pick up in this year's second half, speculative excitement has played a significant role in powering the run-up for the stock. BigBear.ai still has big upside potential if the business effectively capitalizes on rising demand for AI-powered defense software, but the company also still has a lot of proving to do.