China Develops AI System to Detect Nuclear Warheads, Potentially Reshaping Arms Control

China's AI tech detects nukes from decoys, sparking security concern

Representative image: The second stage of the DF-5B, disassembled for transport. Chinese scientists have allegedly developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system that can tell the difference between real nuclear warheads and fake ones (decoys). This is the first time in the world that AI has been used for this kind of arms control task. The research for this system was published in April by the China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE). China's position in the global nuclear disarmament talks has stalled currently, but this discovery could help the government improve its position on this subject.

AI vs Nukes: How China's new tech could shake up global arms control

Chinese researchers have achieved a groundbreaking feat by developing an AI system capable of distinguishing genuine nuclear warheads from decoys. This marks the world's first AI-driven verification tool for arms control, potentially enhancing China's position in international nuclear disarmament negotiations. The system addresses challenges related to sensitive data, military concerns, and skepticism towards traditional verification methods.Chinese researchers have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) system capable of distinguishing genuine nuclear warheads from decoys, marking the world's first AI-driven verification tool for arms control, according to a report by the South China Morning Post (SCMP). The breakthrough, detailed in a peer-reviewed paper published in April by scientists at the China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE), aims to enhance China's position in stalled international nuclear disarmament negotiations while sparking wider discussion about AI's role in managing weapons of mass destruction, the report said. The project, based on a verification protocol co-proposed by Chinese and American scientists over a decade ago, faced three major challenges: training the AI with sensitive nuclear data (including real warhead specifications), assuring Chinese military officials that the system would not compromise classified information, and convincing skeptical nations -- particularly the United States -- to move beyond Cold War-era verification methods. As of now, only the first hurdle has been fully addressed, the report added. The CIAE researchers lso acknowledged in their paper published in Atomic Energy Science and Technology that, "Due to the classified nature of nuclear warheads and component designs, specific data cannot be disclosed here." This underscores the tension between scientific transparency and necessary secrecy in nuclear arms control. Named the "Verification Technical Scheme for Deep Learning Algorithm Based on Interactive Zero Knowledge Protocol," the AI system employs a multi-stage approach combining cryptography and nuclear physics. Using Monte Carlo simulations, researchers created millions of virtual nuclear components -- some containing weapons-grade uranium and others disguised with lead or low-enriched materials -- to train a deep learning network on neutron flux patterns. The AI demonstrated extremely high accuracy in identifying authentic warheads, the report said. To prevent direct access to sensitive weapon designs, a 400-hole polythene wall was placed between the inspection apparatus and the warhead, scrambling neutron signals to mask detailed geometry while allowing radiation signatures through. Repeated randomized inspections can reduce the risk of deception to nearly zero. The core innovation lies in verifying a warhead's chain-reaction capability -- critical for a nuclear weapon -- without exposing design details. The AI operates blind to engineering specifics yet can authenticate warheads using obscured radiation data. CIAE, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), is a pivotal research center in China's nuclear weapons program. Notably, nuclear physicist Yu Min from CIAE pioneered advancements in miniaturizing China's nuclear arsenal, earning the title "Father of China's Hydrogen Bomb." This technological revelation comes amid stalled US-China nuclear arms talks. While former US President Donald Trump sought renewed dialogue, China has resisted citing its smaller arsenal (estimated 600 warheads vs. America's 3,748) and distrust of traditional verification methods. The CIAE team emphasized, "In nuclear warhead component verification for arms control, it is critical to ensure that sensitive weapon design information is not acquired by inspectors while maintaining verification effectiveness." They noted that current systems -- used by Britain, the US, and Russia -- rely on complex information barriers, which pose challenges including mutual trust issues and vulnerabilities to electronic breaches. To ensure trust and transparency, the researchers propose that the AI system be jointly developed, trained, and verified by both inspecting and inspected parties, with the software sealed before use.