Dell's AI-Driven Growth: A Deep Dive into the Tech Giant's Transformation

Dell: Blockbuster AI Growth, Don't Worry About Margins (NYSE:DELL)

While risks include supply chain delays and allegations of circumventing U.S. export restrictions, Dell's management has plans to mitigate these concerns. Dell (NYSE:DELL) shares have drifted downward over the last three months since I last wrote on the server-PC giant due to growing investor concerns after the last quarter provided commentary on the company's AI server margins. While the tech company actually outperformed revenue expectations in that quarter, their AI-powered servers saw a notable margin compression due to Nvidia's strong pricing power for their GPUs. Initially, this limited Dell's ability to charge premium prices for their AI servers, and has resulted in far lower margins on these key products that are part of the AI transformation. I think we're set to see them make these margins back on other services. The stock reached a peak of $179.70 earlier this year but has since pulled back to below $110, this is after a notable rally from the August low (mid-80s range). However, even with the street's margin pessimism, I think the company can still see shares recover, taking key wins in a seriously competitive market. Given this, despite the stock sell-off since I last wrote about them, I still think Dell is a strong buy. Since I last wrote about Dell in June, their shares have declined by 17.22% (including dividends) from the price at publication. Like any bull on Dell, I'm bummed to see the market punishing the stock like this, but I'm happy shares have rebounded from the August lows. Driving this, I think the company's recent quarter was much more impressive after demonstrating strong momentum, especially within their AI infrastructure. Revenue from AI-optimized servers surged 23% sequentially, contributing to a record $7.7 billion in server and networking revenue, which increased by 80% YoY. I think this most recent quarter allowed the company to really show their ability to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-powered servers, even if margins stay a little compressed for now. It suggests that Dell is firing on all cylinders, and their investments in the AI sector are paying off. As we see them grab more market share in AI servers, their services division should pick up over the long run. In my opinion, Dell's current situation presents a rare disconnect between stock price and business performance. Despite a decline in their stock from its highs earlier this year, the company really is financially stronger than it was six months ago. I think investors are now looking at a healthier and more valuable business trading at a lower price point, which makes this a strong opportunity. Buying stronger companies at lower valuations seems like a good strategy, and I'm writing this follow-up to highlight why Dell is in a better position today, even compared to their already strong standing earlier this year. Over the last 12 months (and becoming especially clear over the last 6 months) Dell has been able to snag some key wins for their AI servers with major players like Tesla (TSLA) now splitting their order book with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Dell. Tesla began moving contracts to Dell this year to diversify their suppliers. According to Evercore's analysis, key customers such as CoreWeave and companies associated with Elon Musk are now dual-sourcing their production across both Dell and SMCI. Evercore believes that Dell's advantage over SMCI is their expertise in: Engineering support, management, maintenance, and financial services. - Evercore Analysis No wonder why, in the most recent quarter, Dell's management reported that: Backlog was $3.8 billion, and our [AI-server] pipeline has grown to several multiples of our backlog - Earnings Press Release In FY Q2 2025, Dell reported revenue of $25.0 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase. Their diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.17, up 86% from the same period last year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.89, marking a 9% increase. This was driven by strong growth in their Infrastructure Solutions Group, which saw record revenue of $11.6 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, with servers and networking revenue surging by 80%. Revenue beat expectations by $903.32 million and non-GAAP EPS beat by $0.18. In their earnings call, COO Jeff Clarke noted: We executed well in Q2, and I'm really proud of our team and our performance. Revenue was $25 billion, up 9%, with another record for our servers and networking business. Diluted EPS was $1.89, up 9%, and cash-flow from operations was $1.3 billion. Our AI momentum accelerated in Q2 and our results and outlook demonstrate that we are uniquely positioned to help customers leverage the benefits of artificial intelligence - Q2 Earnings call In terms of AI server performance, he added: We are also excited about the emerging sovereign AI opportunity, which plays to our strengths given our position with governments around the world. We shipped $3.1 billion of AI servers in Q2. As we exited the quarter, our AI server backlog remains healthy at $3.8 billion. Most exciting, our AI server pipeline expanded across both Tier-2 CSPs and enterprise customers again in Q2, and now has grown to several multiples of our backlog. As we begin the second-half of the year, we have optimized our sales coverage to better focus on AI opportunities across CSPs, and both large and small customer segments and geographies - Earnings call In essence, Dell is firing on all the right cylinders to pick up key wins with their AI servers. As I mentioned in my last report, this should be a "foot in the door" approach for Dell as they use their AI servers to later upsell services and other comprehensive support like Evercore was mentioning. In essence, I think Dell's strategy of leading their sales relationships with AI servers at clients' data farms and then upselling related data center services, is working. While I originally covered this in May in my last write up, what's interesting is that the market is only now just starting to price this in. Dell's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly below the sector median. Their forward non-GAAP P/E ratio stands at 13.89, a 39.77% discount compared to the sector median of 23.06. I really think this presents a key opportunity for investors, especially considering Dell's better position in the AI and server markets. What's neat about this is that, arguably, Dell has a much more robust growth profile and pipeline than the median stock in the Information Technology sector given their exposure to AI servers (and the corresponding service contracts). Yet shares trade below the sector median. This looks like a classic mispricing. On this same note, Dell's forward price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio is 1.12, also below the sector median of 1.82, in this case coming in at a notable 38.51% discount. Here, the market is implying they are discounting Dell's ability to earn over the next 12 months and think that their real EPS numbers will come in below current expectations (expectations will be revised down). Yet, weirdly, market expectations are running contrary to Wall Street analyst expectations, with a 3:1 ratio of upward EPS estimate revisions over the last 3 months. Even now, I believe estimates are conservative. Dell has a strong potential to grab market share, particularly as they continue to expand their AI server and networking businesses. I agree with Evercore that as they expand their comprehensive AI offering, they should be able to grab some more key wins even as the market expands. Already their EPS growth is already coming in strong, sporting a 110.76% year-over-year increase over the last 12 months even as the AI server trends are increasing. I really think, given Dell's strong growth potential and really robust pipeline, their forward P/E ratio should be trading at about the sector median. This would place their forward non-GAAP P/E at roughly 23.06. If we saw the PC-server giant converge on just a sector median valuation multiple, we could see shares move up roughly 66% from current levels, not including dividends. According to some reports, Dell's servers were involved in supplying Nvidia (NVDA) chips to Chinese entities despite the U.S. expanding its key AI technology sales ban to China late last year. Chinese research institutions, including universities and government-affiliated centers, have allegedly managed to acquire advanced Nvidia AI chips when the chips were put in servers manufactured by Dell and other suppliers. While these sales are not illegal in China itself, they appear to circumvent key U.S. regulations on high-tech technology exports. Simultaneously, Dell is also facing a drop-off in their AI server build projections for the rest of 2024 due to shipment delays, particularly linked to Nvidia's Blackwell chip. While they were originally projected to produce 48,000 units of the PowerEdge 9680/9680L AI servers, the estimate has been cut to 37,000-38,000 units, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. This is really attributed to delays in the delivery of the Blackwell chips that are used in Dell's AI server production. This is not indicative of demand. Even with both of these problems, I still believe that Dell can manage these risks. While the delayed Blackwell chip is definitely posing challenges, what's nice is that Dell has the flexibility to mitigate this by integrating AMD (AMD) chips into their AI server builds if the customers desire. They actually alluded to this on their earnings call. Dell's PowerEdge servers already use AMD EPYC processors to maintain performance and energy efficiency for demanding AI workloads. I believe this can support the company in managing the delays in Nvidia chip shipments by giving their customers key alternatives. And while some reports have accused Dell of shipping (intentionally or unintentionally) banned AI products to Chinese entities, Dell has explicitly stated they have seen no evidence of their servers equipped with restricted chips being shipped to China after U.S. embargoes were implemented. A spokesperson for Dell confirmed: If we become aware of a distributor or reseller that is not complying with these obligations, we take appropriate actions, including termination of our relationship. - Dell Spokesperson In my opinion, I think there is no direct evidence supporting allegations of Dell intentionally violating export restrictions. I can't say for sure if their tech was not smuggled into China illegally, but these actions have a much lower impact on Dell in terms of regulatory actions and fines. In essence, I don't think the company has a lot of risk here. Dell's shares have declined since June over margin concerns on their AI servers, driven by Nvidia's strong pricing power. However, the most recent quarter from late last month showed that the company remains a strong beneficiary of AI infrastructure growth, with revenue from AI-optimized servers surging by 23% in the most recent quarter. Their strategy is comprehensive, as Evercore noted. I think Dell is poised to capture more market share in the coming quarters. While there are risks surrounding margin pressure and supply chain delays due to the Blackwell chip delay, I believe the company is prepared for them with their ability to offer AMD as an alternative. They can be nimble, which, I think, is key. In my opinion, Dell remains a strong buy despite short-term risks and supply chain disruptions. The ongoing AI revolution presents an opportune moment for the company to expand and solidify its leadership in this key market. I really think they are getting a lot of the upside from the AI boom, with a far lower risk profile.

Dell Technologies: A Deep Value AI Stock

The main risk for Dell is a potential slowdown in its server business, which could impact overall profitability. Dell (NYSE:DELL) reported better than expected earnings for its second fiscal quarter last week that were driven by strong demand for AI-oriented servers. As a hardware maker, Dell benefits from increased demand for artificial intelligence-capable IT products, which has resulted in high-single digit top line growth in the last quarter. Dell also raised its guidance for FY 2025 amid strong business tailwinds, especially in the Infrastructure Solutions Group. In my opinion, Dell is a tech dinosaur with an attractive valuation. I also expect a new round of EPS upside revisions following the company's second fiscal quarter earnings release last week. Dell reported higher than expected revenue and earnings in the second fiscal quarter on August 29, 2024: the hardware maker reported adjusted earnings of $1.89 adjusted, compared to an average prediction of $1.71 per-share. Revenues came in at $25.03B, beating the consensus projection by $903M. The main reason for Dell's strong second-quarter earnings sheet as well as raised earnings/revenue guidance for FY 2025 was sizzling demand for its AI-optimized servers. Dell reported 9% year-over-year growth in its consolidated top line last week, as well as a significant (+85% Y/Y) surge in net income. Dell's business consists of two major business parts: the Client Solutions Group and the Infrastructure Solutions Group. The first deals with desktop PCs, notebooks, monitors, projectors and software products, while the second includes servers, storage and cyber technology products (essentially Dell's Data Center business). The real action for Dell happens in the Infrastructure Solutions Group, which is benefiting from all the momentum in the Data Center market. A key driver for growth here are servers that have been specifically optimized in order to handle AI workloads. As is the case with Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which is seeing surging demand for AI servers as well, the Data Center business is on fire. Dell's Infrastructure Solutions Group crushed it in the second-quarter as server sales surged 80% year-over-year and reached $11.6B. Infrastructure Solutions Group is now the second-largest segment for Dell in terms of revenue contribution. This segment generated 47% of consolidated revenue in Q2'25 compared against a top line share of 37% in the year-earlier period. Server orders are the single biggest revenue growth driver for Dell at the moment and with companies ramping up their spending, the IT hardware maker is set for a multi-year run-way in terms of top line growth in ISG. Dell obviously benefits from the spending binge in the AI industry, especially in Data Centers where large corporations are spending billions of dollars to establish an infrastructure that can handle demanding AI workloads. The AI infrastructure market is set for secular (not cyclical) growth in the coming years as companies need AI-optimized hardware and software to roll out artificial intelligence products ranging from digital assistants to their own, proprietary large language models. The AI infrastructure market is expected to grow from $47.2B in FY 2024 to $421.4B by the end of FY 2033, which calculates to a compound annual growth rate of 28%. In my opinion, Dell is well-positioned with its Infrastructure Solutions Group to take advantage of this expected, broad-based upgrading of the IT infrastructure base. Due to favorable business tailwinds in the Infrastructure Solutions Group, Dell raised its outlook for FY 2025 revenue and earnings: the hardware maker increased its revenue guidance to a range of $95.5-98.5B compared to $93.5-97.5B in Q1'24. The non-GAAP earnings guidance for FY 2025 now is $7.80 +/- $0.25, showing a raise of $0.15/share Q/Q. Dell has made a name for itself in the competitive PC market, and the company has gradually ventured out over time and moved into the server market. Shares, however, are not excessively valued, in my opinion, which means Dell has an opportunity for multiplier expansion if it continues to execute well in the server market. Dell is currently valued at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12X, which is almost a pitiful multiplier given the company's 80% increase in server revenues in the second-quarter. In the market for computers and AI servers, Dell competes against companies like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) as well as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE). Dell is currently trading at a forward (FY 2026) P/E ratio of 11.8X, implying an earnings yield of 8.5%. This ratio is 44% above the company's three-year average P/E ratio, but the technology company's shares are still very reasonably valued here. Given the strong Q2'25 earnings report last week, I expect a number of EPS upside revisions going forward. Super Micro Computer, which is dealing with the fall-out from a recent short-seller report (a buying opportunity, in my opinion), is trading at a 10.0X P/E ratio, but shares have been considerably more expensive earlier this year. The average P/E ratio for SMCI in the last year was 17.0X. In the context of the latest Hindenburg Research report for SMCI, I see Dell as a lower-risk alternative to Super Micro Computer. In my opinion, Dell could easily trade at a 15X P/E ratio if the momentum in the server and networking business proves to be sustainable... which I believe to be the case given the considerable ramp in AI spending that we are seeing right now. Long-term projections also indicate that growth in AI spending, in the hardware and software markets, is of a secular nature, and is not cyclical. A 15X P/E ratio implies a fair value of ~$141 per-share (based off of a consensus EPS estimate of $9.37 for Dell's next fiscal year). The biggest opportunity, but also the greatest risk for Dell, is the company's burgeoning server business. Here, Dell is seeing the most significant growth burst and the biggest spending tailwinds. Therefore, what would change my mind about Dell is if the hardware maker were to see a decrease in server and networking orders and if the server segment were to contribute a lower share of revenues going forward. Dell may not grow as quickly as Nvidia (NVDA) or AMD (AMD), but the company is seeing escalating demand for its AI-oriented servers, nonetheless, and the company has real growth potential here. Dell's biggest advantage is that the potential for accelerating server revenue growth is not priced into the company's shares yet, in my opinion. With an 11.8X P/E ratio, based off of FY 2026 earnings, I don't believe investors are paying an outrageous multiplier here. Dell also raised its forecast for revenue and earnings, indicating that spending on AI products in the hardware market is going to remain high. As a result, I see an attractive risk profile for shares of AI and consider Dell to be an alternative to Super Micro Computer.

3 Must-See Quotes From Dell Management Point to Monster Growth Next Year | The Motley Fool

One "old tech" stock that has emerged as a genuine artificial intelligence player this year is Dell Technologies (DELL -4.13%). Dell, of course, started as a personal computer giant, after founder Michael Dell began constructing PCs out of his dorm room and selling them directly to consumers. Fast-forward to today, and Dell has become one of the biggest enterprise and personal computer vendors, as well as the largest branded enterprise server company after buying server giant EMC in 2016. As a result of enthusiasm for new AI servers, the stock is up 52.8% this year. But on the recent earnings release, management gave three big reasons why Dell should see strong growth continuing into 2025. Dell had sold off after its first quarter earnings report back in May, as analysts came to doubt the margins it was getting on its AI servers. But Dell's AI-optimized servers achieved sequentially improved margins, and operating margins for the overall server business improved from 8% to 11%. That should have allayed investor fears, as should management's commentary about future demand. Some investors have wondered how long the AI spending boom can last, but Dell said there was really no letup in demand on that front. Dell made $3.2 billion in AI-optimized servers out of $7.7 billion in server and networking revenue in Q2, up 23% sequentially. And while Dell noted its AI server backlog was "only" $3.8 billion, up only 19% sequentially from Q2 and showing a potential deceleration, management noted demand continued to increase, with a potential pipeline that is "multiples" of the current backlog. While skeptics may note that a pipeline isn't in fact the same as firm orders, management hinted this was probably a supply issue, not a demand issue: Deployments and scheduled deliveries to customers is what we have to manage through again -- much of this is very complex deployments: readiness of a data center, readiness of power, readiness of a cooling; if its direct liquid cooling, the ability to have water in data center. And all of that infrastructure has to be put in place and coordinated with the delivery of a GPU in a server. And that's what we're working through. There's clearly opportunities that we're working across our customer set of what technologies they want to deploy. ... Again, I try to reinforce, five-quarter pipeline is multiples of the backlog. There's demand out there. CEO Jeff Clarke also noted many enterprises are still in the "early stages" of AI deployment. So there doesn't appear to be any change in the high demand for AI. Not only are artificial intelligence-optimized servers taking off, but traditional servers are also in the early stages of a rebound. As much attention as AI gets, traditional servers still made up the majority of Dell's server and networking segment last quarter, not to mention the company's storage business. Dell noted its traditional server portfolio had grown sequentially for five straight quarters, posting three straight quarters of year-over-year growth, as that subsegment slowly comes out of its longest downturn ever. But there could be much more growth in traditional servers. This is for a couple reasons. First, traditional servers underwent their longest downturn ever over the past two years. This is because one, there was a hangover from the torrid pandemic-era growth seen in 2020 and 2021. Then, when things began to recover, AI took off, meaning IT managers had to devote most of their budgets to new AI servers and hold off on refreshing traditional servers. But that can only last so long. The installed base is now old, and most of all, new server designs take up less space in the data center, making more room for AI machines and the power those AI machines need. Clarke noted: [I]f I was to look at a 14G, a product we shipped four-plus years ago to a 16G that we ship today, our product today has 2.5 times to 3 times more cores in it. It's 25% to 35% more power-efficient and a single 16G server can replace three to five 14G servers in a rack. Consolidation is going to occur because that space and power is needed. Finally, while AI and servers are getting the attention, Dell's original PC business is still relevant, making up over half the company's second-quarter revenue and 37% of operating income. Although Dell's computing segment was only flat year over year, it could post impressive growth toward the end of this year and in 2025. Like traditional servers, the PC market crashed post-pandemic, and remained low as budgets were constrained by high interest rates and a focus on AI. Clarke noted on the call there are several dynamics conspiring for a big PC rebound. One, the pandemic-era PC installed base is old. Two, new AI PCs with neural processing engines are just hitting the market, which should make IT managers want to upgrade soon. Finally, Microsoft will end its support for Windows 10 in October 2025, forcing many IT managers to upgrade. Clarke noted on PCs: [A]s the refresh takes longer to start, history suggests it snaps back faster because the Windows 10 end-of-life date is not moving. So we have a Windows 10 end-of-life date. We have an aging installed base of machines bought during the COVID era, all mounting to be refreshed with exciting new products built around AI, and more AI applications are coming. For those looking to assemble the AI portion of your portfolio, Dell could be a name to add. It has a more reasonable valuation than some of the high-flying semiconductor names, at just 15 times next year's earnings estimates. But with AI servers continuing to be in high demand and traditional servers and PCs due for a rebound, look for this "old tech" standby to potentially beat those 2025 earnings estimates handily.

2 AI Stocks You'll Regret Not Buying Before 2025 | The Motley Fool

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is continuing to spread across the economy. Statista projects the AI market to explode to $826 billion by 2030. Consistent with that estimate, the growth from the following companies shows that the demand for AI hardware and software is not slowing. This could be a great time to buy these AI stocks that are currently trading almost 40% below their 52-week high. Dell (DELL -4.13%) is more than a PC brand. It is also a leading supplier of servers and storage systems, and this is fueling solid growth for Dell, as companies are buying AI-optimized servers like there's no tomorrow. Revenue from Dell's infrastructure group totals almost half of the business and grew 38% year over year last quarter. Management is seeing more organizations buying AI products every quarter, which signals a strong upward trajectory in the infrastructure business that isn't slowing down anytime soon. Most importantly, Dell is not just selling a server. It offers a complete package of networking and storage services to go with its cutting-edge liquid cooled servers. Dell tunes all these systems to deliver optimal performance for the customer, which reflects a business that offers excellent customer support. This is why more customers are turning to Dell amid a competitive server market -- a market the company estimates at $174 billion when including additional services it offers. The negative for Dell is the PC business. Revenue from the client solutions group was down 4% year over year, which is offsetting a lot of the growth Dell is seeing in infrastructure. But the PC business could pick up in the next few years, as there are a lot of older PCs that will need to upgrade to handle processor-hungry AI applications. Wall Street analysts expect Dell's adjusted earnings per share to grow at an annualized rate of 12% over the next several years. Against those estimates, the stock's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 is a bargain and raises the chance that the stock will rebound and trade at a higher valuation by this time next year. C3.ai (AI 0.47%) is a leader in providing AI applications that help organizations save a lot of time in managing supply chains and gaining important insights from their data to make better decisions. Revenue growth has accelerated to 20% year-over-year in the most recent quarter. Businesses across several industries are showing interest in C3.ai's generative AI applications. Prospective customers across 15 industries piloted the company's product over the past year, which is opening up new markets for the company. C3.ai has valuable sales channels through the major cloud service providers, such as Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. Its 12-month qualified pipeline through these partners grew 63% year over year last quarter, which shows that C3.ai's strong growth won't be slowing down anytime soon. Management expects revenue to continue accelerating through the end of fiscal 2025 (which ends in April). Wall Street is currently expecting revenue to increase from $383 million this year to $546 million by fiscal 2027. The negative is that the business is not profitable yet. However, because C3.ai generates more than 90% of its revenue from subscriptions, it should post a healthy margin over the long term. In fact, the company's free cash flow was $18 million last quarter and increased significantly over the last year. The stock is down 19% this year, which could set up a great buying opportunity. C3.ai's guidance is pointing to more momentum in signing deals. As the company reports more solid top-line growth with improving free cash flow, the stock will likely be trading higher by this time next year.