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[1]
Musk looks past Tesla sales slump, says 80% of value will come from Optimus
Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted that Optimus robots, which have yet to hit the market, will eventually make up more than three-quarters of his automaker's value. In a post on X on Monday, Musk wrote, "~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus." In mid-2024, Musk predicted that Optimus robots would someday turn Tesla into a $25 trillion company, which was equal to more than half of the entire value of the S&P 500 at the time of his comment. With Tesla in the midst of a multi-quarter sales slump due to competition from lower-cost Chinese competitors, an aging lineup of electric vehicles and Musk's incendiary political rhetoric and involvement with the Trump administration, the world's richest person has been trying to convince Wall Street to look to the future. For Tesla, that dream revolves around a world filled with robotaxis and humanoid robots, powered by artificial intelligence. "It is important to note that Tesla is by far the best in the world at real-world AI," Musk said in the company's second-quarter conference call with analysts in July. The problem for Tesla is that it's behind in those key markets.
[2]
Musk Stakes Tesla Future on One Major Gamble
In a striking shift of narrative, Elon Musk has declared that Tesla’s future valuation will derive 80% from its Optimus humanoid robots, not its electric vehicle business. This declaration, made in tandem with the release of Tesla’s “Master Plan Part  IV,†shifts the spotlight firmly to robotics and AI as the company’s aspirational core. Optimus has morphed from a speculative experiment into Tesla’s defining strategic centerpiece. Musk envisions deploying “thousands†of robots in factories by year-end, with production ramping to 1 million units annually by 2030 and estimates the value of each robot to be between $20,000 and $30,000. This pivot comes amid a marked slowdown in Tesla’s core business. Global EV deliveries have declined approximately 13% in the first half of 2025, prompting Musk to lean into robotics as a futuristic counterweight. “My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long-term value will be Optimus,†he said at the firm’s shareholder meeting in June. Now that we know that majority might mean as high as 80% of that value, Wall Street has some thoughts. Tesla stock modestly rose 1.4% following the announcement, outperforming the broader market. One driver of optimism may have been Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff praising Musk’s AI push after visiting Tesla’s robot facility. Still, many analysts and investors remain upbeat. UBS, Wedbush, and Cantor Fitzgerald all wrote in notes to investors that they see promise in Tesla’s AI and robotics ventures, especially robotaxis and future Optimus lines, though near-term fundamentals remain weak. Plus, despite investor jitters and an 8% stock drop after the earnings release, analysts such as Wedbush’s Dan Ives and Benchmark’s Mikey Legg retain bullish long-term outlooks. They point to Tesla’s liquidity and AI ambitions as foundations for future growth, even amid short-term volatility. Goldman Sachs went so far as to write in a report last year that humanoid robots could “become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones.†However, skepticism runs deep. Several Tesla investors highlighted concerns about declining EV sales and political distractions undermining Tesla’s core operations, and questioned whether Musk’s pivot to robotics is masking deeper structural issues. Even with that worry, many Tesla backers say that when Musk left briefly, the company couldn't maintain the same kind of value, with out without robots. ""A lot of the share price is tied to the love of Elon and having robots do everything for us. But when he left, it was a house of cards," James McRitchie, a private Tesla investor, told Reuters. "I think the same is probably true of Tesla. It's a good company, but it could be a much better company and it's over-valued." Neutral marketplace voices point to Tesla's worst sales dip in years, with investors split. Analysts at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have trimmed forecasts, warning that the payoff from game-changing AI and robotics may be years away. Supporters argue that Optimus represents unprecedented optionality. A column in The Washington Post suggests humanoid robots could unlock productivity gains comparable to the advent of smartphones, potentially reshaping economies. Rivals like Amazon appear unconvinced. Despite operating over 750,000 industrial robots in its warehouses, the e-commerce giant remains focused on non-humanoid automation, hinting at differing philosophies on robotics deployment. Tesla’s declaration might be the boldest yet in Musk’s long history of audacious proclamations. Framing Optimus as the engine of 80% of its market value signals a decisive shift away from legacy auto manufacturing toward robotics and physical AI. The biggest question still remains: When will these robots make any money? Without a clear commercial roadmap, realistic development timelines, or evidence that humanoid robotics can scale profitably, investors could grow wary. The contrast between Tesla’s vision and Amazon’s pragmatism on robotics highlights a broader divergence in industrial strategy. As Optimus moves from manifesto to market reality, Tesla must answer whether its bold robot-first thesis can deliver, or if it might join the ranks of overpromised tech dreams unfulfilled.
[3]
Musk: 80% of Tesla value will be Optimus robots
Why it matters: Tesla's vehicle deliveries have been falling worldwide, but Musk has been pointing investors to the company's shift to AI and automation, including humanoids and self-driving taxis. Driving the news: Musk made the prediction on his social media platform X, shortly after Tesla published its fourth "master plan," a corporate manifesto that laid out a gauzy goal of "sustainable abundance" based on the expansion of AI and robotics. * The vague corporate update triggered plenty of questions from Musk followers, and Musk acknowledged the lack of specifics, saying more details would follow. What they're saying: Master Plan Part 4 is "nothing more than a smorgasbord of AI promises about its humanoid robot, which can't even serve popcorn," wrote Fred Lambert, editor-in-chief of Electrek, a popular EV website. * "Tesla is lost as a company," he wrote. "This is a bunch of utopic nonsense, complete with AI 'abundance' buzzwords that Grok could have easily written," a reference to Musk's AI chatbot. The intrigue: Not everyone's so negative on Tesla's roadmap. Musk's prediction came a few days after longtime Tesla bulls at Ark Invest said the robotaxi business alone could represent 90% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2029. * Ark believes Tesla robotaxis -- now operating in Austin, Texas, albeit with a human operator on board -- will overtake Waymo and capture a significant share of what it projects is a $10 trillion global market. Where it stands: About three-quarters of Tesla's revenue today comes from automotive sales -- essentially just two models, the 3 and Y. * The remainder comes from energy generation and storage or services. * Another reliable source of revenue -- selling regulatory credits to other carmakers -- is drying up under the Trump administration's less strident emissions rules. The bottom line: Innovation is what built Tesla, and with EV momentum faltering, Musk needs to convince investors he's got more ideas up his sleeve.
[4]
As EV sales continue to plummet, Elon Musk says Optimus robots will make up 80% of Tesla's value, despite production delays
Elon Musk's lofty vision for Tesla includes less attention on electric vehicles and a doubling-down on its autonomous robots, even as production for the bots have hit numerous snags. The Tesla CEO said on Monday 80% of Tesla's value would someday come from Optimus robots, the humanoid bot Musk's company introduced in 2021 intended to eliminate dangerous and menial factory tasks. Musk's forecast of the bots' success came shortly after Tesla revealed its "Master Plan Part IV" on Monday, outlining Tesla's goals for the future. "This next chapter in Tesla's story will help create a world we've only just begun to imagine and will do so at a scale that we have yet to see," the plan said. "We are building the products and services that bring AI into the physical world." Investments in adding embedded intelligence to specialized bots has been top of mind for tech leaders. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has similarly singled out "physical AI" as the final iteration of AI's four-part evolution, recently introducing a $3,499 developer kit for robot "brains" that begins shipping this month. Musk's emphasis on Optimus robots as the future of Tesla is signalling a similar agenda, according to one analyst. "Elon is not alone in seeing the big future of robotics and physical AI," Kevin Cook, senior stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, told Fortune. "He's been obviously training his Tesla cars for 15 years with AI systems, and so it's only natural for him to move into other autonomous machines." Shifting gears has not been easy for Tesla. The Optimus robots were initially greeted with skepticism from analysts and have continued to encounter obstacles. At the beginning of the year, Musk predicted Tesla would manufacture thousands of Optimus bots in 2025 and said the project could generate more than $10 trillion in revenue in the long-term. In April, however, Musk told investors production of the machines was hobbled by President Donald Trump's trade disputes with China, which hardened export controls on rare-earth materials necessary to build the motors inside Tesla's bots. Milan Kovac, who oversaw Tesla's Optimus development, stepped down from his role in June. Tesla's increased focus on growing the company outside its EV production comes as car sales continue to plummet, with deliveries in the European Union plunging 40% in July. The company reported a 13% global sales decline in the first half of 2025, on pace for a second consecutive year of dwindling sales. Tesla did not respond to Fortune's request for comment. While Tesla has yet to deliver on the promises of its Optimus project, the sector of humanoid robots has become increasingly crowded. Morgan Stanley research predicted in May the humanoid market would reach $5 trillion by 2050, with the possibility of 1 billion bots being in use in a quarter century's time. Figure AI, an American humanoid-robot company, has raised more than $700 since its 2022 founding, including from Jeff Bezos's Bezos Expeditions investment firm, Intel Capital, Microsoft, and Nvidia. In February, Reuters reported the startup's potential $1.5 billion funding round would put it at a valuation near $40 billion. The California-based K-Scale Labs has developed a bot priced at $9,000 per unit, less than half of Optimus' projected starting price. "[Musk] has got so much competition now with robots," Cook said. "There are dozens and dozens of small startups doing this for cheaper and open source -- and then big players too, like Figure -- so he's got his work cut out for him." There's even more competition overseas. According to an August report from HSBC Qianhai, China's industrial robot sales have nearly doubled from 2017 to 2024, from 150,000 to about 300,000 units. China also emphasized open-source development that could help it garner good will in the sector and make production cheaper. "As one of the most advanced and high-profile humanoid robot makers, Tesla's production guidance was taken by the market as a benchmark for understanding how much progress is being made to manufacture humanoid robots at scale," the HSBC report said. "Still, we believe the market might have overlooked progress made by Chinese humanoid robot suppliers, where commercialisation is speeding up compared to overseas peers."
[5]
Elon Musk makes bold claim about Tesla's humanoid robot
Tesla is suffering a global downturn in sales in the face of tough competition from China and public unease over the political controversies of its polarizing CEO, Elon Musk, among other reasons. That places the electric-car maker in a sticky situation, though Musk said this week that he sees a way out. Recommended Videos In a post on X on Tuesday, the Tesla chief said he believes that around "80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus," referring to the company's humanoid robot. He didn't put a time frame on it, but with the bipedal bot still under development, it could be years before AI-powered Optimus secures meaningful deployment at a large scale. Musk's comment came around the same time that Tesla shared its "Master Plan Part IV" in a post on X on Tuesday. "We are building the products and services that bring AI into the physical world," Tesla said in the post. "We have been working tirelessly for nearly two decades to create the foundation for this technological renaissance through the development of electric vehicles, energy products, and humanoid robots." It added: "Optimus ... is changing not only the perception of labor itself but its availability and capability. Jobs and tasks that are particularly monotonous or dangerous can now be accomplished by other means. In this way, Optimus's mission is to give people back more time to do what they love." Musk envisages the robot being used in industrial settings like factories, and wants to deploy thousands of them to work alongside human workers at Tesla manufacturing plants. He's also spoken of Optimus becoming a home helper, suggesting it could one day "babysit your kid, walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks." And presumably make your dinner, too. But it won't be cheap. Musk said last year that when the robot is produced at scale, it could cost somewhere between $20,000 and $30,000. When it comes to humanoid robots, Tesla faces tough competition from a slew of companies building similar machines. We've already seen impressive displays from robots by the likes of Boston Dynamics, Unitree, Figure, and Robotera, so Tesla clearly has its work cut out if it's going to make a success of Optimus.
[6]
Elon Musk's New Robot Demo Is Astonishingly Bad
Hot off of proudly announcing that he had replaced 4,000 people with AI at his company, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff posted a video of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, calling it a "productivity game-changer." However, going by the 52-second clip, the carmaker has a long way to go until it can successfully have AI-powered bipedal robots replace human jobs. Is this really what will make up a whopping 80 percent of Tesla's value, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised in a tweet earlier this week? In an apparent effort to shift the company's priorities from slumping car sales, the mercurial entrepreneur has doubled down on AI and its humanoid robot in an apparent effort to stop investors from running for the hills. But Benioff's latest demo leaves a lot to be desired, suggesting the company is still a long way out from realizing Musk's goal of having the robot catapult Tesla's market value to a dubiously high $25 trillion, let alone complete the most basic of human tasks. "Hey Optimus, do you know where I can get a Coke?" Benioff asked the golden, life-sized robot. "Sorry, I don't..." Optimus answered, before cutting itself off, "...have real-time info, but I can take you to the kitchen if you want to check for a Coke there." After the pair talked over each other for a bit, Optimus finally lurched into action, awkwardly waddling down the aisle of a nondescript office environment. "I think we need to give it a bit more room," Musk could be heard saying off-camera. "Right now, it's kind of paranoid about space." "It'll be able to walk a lot faster, too," he added, in an apparent attempt to reassure Benioff as the robot slowly lumbered down the carpeted hallway. Ahead of plunging sales and abysmal quarterly earnings, Musk promised in January that "things are really going to go ballistic next year," promising to produce 100,000 Optimus robots a month by then. But in July, The Information reported that the company had fallen far behind in its efforts to ramp up production, failing to keep up with its own stated goal of building 5,000 Optimus robots this year. The company is also reportedly facing severe bottlenecks that are slowing down production, as well as technical problems related to Optimus' hands. In fact, the hands of the Optimus robot in Benioff's video don't appear to have any degree of dexterity, closely resembling the appendages of a mannequin. In June, Milan Kovac, the head of engineering for the Optimus robot program, abruptly left the company, stating that he was looking to spend more time with his family. As Tesla continues to struggle with its humanoid robot, the competition is heating up fast. Manufacturers, particularly in China, are figuratively and literally running circles around their US-based counterparts. While Benioff suggests that an Optimus robot will cost anywhere up to half a million dollars, Chinese robot company Unitree is already selling a bipedal alternative for a mere $16,000 -- which can do a lot more than vaguely pointing out where the kitchen is.
[7]
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff hails Tesla's Optimus robot as a 'productivity game-changer,' in video showing what it can and can't do
"Elon's Tesla Optimus is here! Dawn of the physical Agentforce revolution, tackling human work for $200K-$500K. Productivity game-changer!" Benioff wrote on X, adding a personal note: "Congrats @elonmusk, and thank you for always being so kind to me!" The tweet was accompanied by a video showing Benioff interacting directly with one of Tesla's humanoid robots at the company's California facility. The casual exchange captured in the video offers a glimpse into the current capabilities, and limitations, of Tesla's Optimus. When Benioff asks, "Hey, Optimus. What are you doing there?" the robot responds, "Just chilling, ready to help." The conversation continues with Benioff requesting directions to find a Coke, to which Optimus replies, "Sorry, I don't have real-time info, but I can take you to the kitchen if you want to check for a Coke there." As they prepare to walk together, someone off-camera notes, "We need to give it a bit more room. Right now, it's kind of paranoid about space. And it'll be able to walk a lot faster, too." You can watch the full exchange below: Tesla shares are holding steady at around $333 as of Thursday morning, but they're up over 22% over the last six months. On Tuesday, Musk shared Tesla's so-called "Master Plan Part IV," which positions Optimus as central to the company's future: The CEO claims "about 80% of Tesla's value will eventually come from Optimus," a projection that would value the robot program at roughly $20 trillion based on Tesla's current market capitalization. Musk set ambitious targets early in the year, predicting Tesla would manufacture thousands of Optimus units in 2025 and projecting the project could eventually generate more than $10 trillion in revenue. However, production plans encountered significant headwinds when China implemented export restrictions on rare-earth materials essential for the robots' movement. During Tesla's April earnings call, Musk explained a magnet issue was disrupting production timelines, noting that China required assurances the rare-earth magnets would not be used for military purposes, adding that Tesla was working with Beijing to secure the necessary export licenses. Optimus' production challenges deepened in June when Milan Kovac, who had overseen Tesla's Optimus development since 2022, stepped down to spend more time with family. The projected price range for Tesla's Optimus robot is between $15,000 and $30,000 at launch, with most recent updates suggesting the initial consumer models will be priced around $18,999 to $20,000, depending on features and configuration. Elon Musk and Tesla have publicly targeted keeping the price "under $20,000" for the base version, though more advanced or customized units could cost more. While Musk's rhetoric remains ambitious, the practical reality of bringing Optimus to market tells a more complex story. Tesla initially targeted producing 5,000 units by the end of 2025, but has manufactured only hundreds of prototypes so far. And with Kovac, the project's original head, out, the program is now undergoing significant redesign under the leadership of Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's AI software vice president. Technical challenges continue to plague the project. According to The Information, engineers have reportedly run into issues with joints overheating, limited battery life, difficulties achieving human-like dexterity in the robot's hands, and overall efficiency. Tesla has reportedly stockpiled mostly complete robot bodies that are still missing critical components like hands and forearms, while production of these intricate parts lags behind. Meanwhile, current Optimus prototypes deployed in Tesla's own battery workshops are apparently operating at less than half the efficiency of human workers. The company paused parts procurement in June to redesign core systems, with suppliers indicating the fixes could take months. For Benioff, the Optimus endorsement aligns with his broader transformation of Salesforce into what he calls an "agentic" enterprise. Under his leadership, the company has deployed AI agents extensively, reducing its customer support workforce from 9,000 to 5,000 employees while maintaining service levels. This experience with digital labor gives weight to his assessment of physical robots as the next frontier. "I'm not just managing human beings -- I'm also managing agents, an entirely new type of digital labor," Benioff said at the Salesforce 2.0 event last December. His vision extends beyond software to encompass robots as "physical manifestations of agents," positioning companies like Tesla at the forefront of what could potentially be a trillion-dollar market opportunity. While Musk has increasingly positioned Tesla as an AI and robotics company rather than a traditional automaker, skeptics point to Tesla's history of ambitious timelines that have consistently been pushed back -- I mean, just look at this list. Many of Musk's previous promises remain unfulfilled. That said, the stakes for Optimus are enormous. If successful, Optimus could revitalize Tesla and revolutionize manufacturing, caregiving, and countless other industries while justifying Tesla's premium valuation. If production challenges persist, it risks becoming another example of Musk's tendency to overpromise on breakthrough technologies.
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Elon Musk Predicts 80% Of Tesla's Value Will Be In Optimus, Promises More Master Plan IV Specifics As EV Giant Pushes Towards AI - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla Inc. TSLA CEO Elon Musk says that the automaker will provide additional details and specifics of the company's Master Plan IV amid the EV giant's artificial intelligence push. Tesla's '80% Value' In Optimus Taking to the social media platform X on Tuesday, Musk made a bold prediction in a response to influencer Whole Mars Catalog's post, which speculated on Tesla's approach to Master Plan IV. "What are the steps to achieve Master Plan Part 4? Scale FSD and Optimus, I guess right," the post said. Musk added his response, saying that the two technologies were the "biggest factors" of the plan. "~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus," Musk said in the post. Additional Master Plan IV Details Separately, Musk also responded to influencer Dave Lee, who suggested the company's Master Plan IV was just an intro. "The real master plan ought to have more specifics," he said. Musk added his response, promising additional details regarding the Master Plan IV in the coming days. "Fair enough. Will add more specifics," Musk said in the post. Master Plan IV's AI Push, EVs In The Background The news comes as Tesla recently announced the company's fourth iteration of the Master Plan, which details the automaker's roadmap for the near future and lays out targets it hopes to achieve. The company is betting on software breakthroughs and robotics as the future, with EVs, the company's main product thus far, being pushed to the background, as the plan had minimal mention of new vehicles in the pipeline. Tesla's Unknown Compact Model, Dwindling Sales Meanwhile, an unknown compact Tesla vehicle was spotted at the EV giant's Giga Texas factory, sparking rumors about a possible compact entry into the automaker's lineup. This coincides with dwindling sales for Tesla, which saw a dramatic decline in markets like Europe, where the company's sales fell by over 40.2%, signaling persisting woes for Musk's company. Model 3 China Price Cut Amid Stiff Competition Elsewhere, Tesla also slashed the price of its Model 3 Long Range in China as it grapples with falling sales in the country with stiff competition from the likes of Xpeng Inc. XPEV, which recently released the P7 Sedan with a price of $30,000 in China. Tesla scores well on Momentum and Growth metrics, while offering satisfactory Quality, but poor Value. For more such insights, sign up for Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings today! Check out more of Benzinga's Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link. Read Next: Toyota Sales Rise In July For 7th Month In A Row Amid Strong North American Demand -- China Sales Surge Despite EV Price War Photo courtesy: Shutterstock TSLATesla Inc$331.35-0.75%Stock Score Locked: Edge Members Only Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock - anytime. Unlock RankingsEdge RankingsMomentum87.41Growth74.93Quality49.71Value9.74Price TrendShortMediumLongOverviewXPEVXPeng Inc$20.91-0.52%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
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Musk shifts Tesla's future toward humanoid robots
The latest news on the United States. It started with cars... Now, Elon Musk is asking investors to look past Tesla's weakening car sales and instead focus on the company's humanoid robot project, Optimus. In a post on X on Monday, the CEO suggested that most of Tesla's future value will come from these machines, which are still in development but envisioned as multipurpose helpers, from factory work to home care. "~80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus." While Tesla faces pressure from cheaper Chinese electric vehicles, Musk continues to argue that the company's expertise in real-world AI will give it an edge. For now, Optimus remains a promise, but one Musk insists will define Tesla's next chapter.
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Elon Musk Says 80% Of Tesla's Value Lies In Robots While China's UBTech Scores Record Deal, JPMorgan Sees Beijing Firms Leading The Humanoid Boom - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), BYD (OTC:BYDDY)
Tesla Inc. TSLA CEO Elon Musk doubled down on his robotics vision on Tuesday, predicting that the company's Optimus humanoid robots will eventually represent approximately 80% of Tesla's total value. The bold forecast comes as Chinese robotics firm UBTech secured a record-breaking $35 million contract for its Walker S2 humanoid robots -- the largest single order for humanoid robots globally. JPMorgan Identifies Chinese Leaders in Humanoid Race JPMorgan analysts highlighted the accelerating commercialization of humanoid robotics in a Thursday research note, identifying Chinese companies as primary beneficiaries of the emerging market, according to CNBC. The investment bank maintained overweight ratings on four Chinese firms: UBTech, Sanhua Intelligent, Leader Drive and Hengli Hydraulic. "2025 has marked a turning point for the humanoid robot industry, as order volumes and contract values have grown sharply," JPMorgan's infrastructure team wrote, according to the report, noting the shift from R&D to actual delivery capabilities. See Also: Sam Altman Warns Of AI Bot Surge On Elon Musk's X, Revives 'Dead Internet' Fears As Feud With xAI Escalates Tesla's AI Pivot Amid Declining EV Sales Musk's robotics emphasis coincides with Tesla's struggling vehicle sales. European deliveries plummeted 40.2% in July, while Chinese rival BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY surged 225% in the same period. Tesla responded with price cuts on its Model 3 Long Range in China and introduced $0 down leases for used vehicles in the U.S. Investment firm Gerber Kawasaki's Ross Gerber questioned Tesla's robotics strategy, posting on X: "If they won't buy his cars. Why would they buy a huge robot for their home from him?" Master Plan IV Prioritizes Robotics Over EVs Tesla's newly released Master Plan IV reflects the company's strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence and robotics, with minimal mention of new vehicle development. The humanoid robotics market is attracting significant investment, with Musk's AI company xAI reportedly investing over $40 billion in its Memphis data center to support the Colossus 1 supercomputer training the Grok AI model. Read Next: Elon Musk's xAI Hit By CFO Exit, Adding To Wave Of Leadership Departures: Report Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Around the World Photos via Shutterstock.com BYDDYBYD Co Ltd$13.29-4.04%OverviewTSLATesla Inc$339.261.55%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
[11]
Tesla Master Plan IV: Elon Musk's Bold Shift to AI and Robotics
Elon Musk's Tesla Master Plan IV Places Optimus Humanoid Robot at Center Stage Tesla is shifting its focus from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence and robotics, with the release of its Tesla Master Plan IV. CEO Elon Musk envisions a world where AI-enabled devices and robots complete both everyday and risky jobs in the pursuit of "sustainable abundance." Musk has also stated that the Tesla Optimus Robot project will generate approximately 80% of the company's future value, emphasizing the extent to which it is banking on the future of robotics.
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Elon Musk predicts that 80% of Tesla's value will come from Optimus robots, shifting focus from electric vehicles to AI and robotics amid declining car sales and increasing competition.
In a striking shift of strategy, Elon Musk has declared that 80% of Tesla's future value will derive from its Optimus humanoid robots, not its electric vehicle business
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. This announcement comes as Tesla faces a multi-quarter sales slump in its core EV business, prompting Musk to redirect investor attention towards a future dominated by robotics and artificial intelligence2
.Source: CNBC
Musk envisions deploying "thousands" of Optimus robots in factories by year-end, with production ramping up to 1 million units annually by 2030
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. The estimated value of each robot is projected to be between $20,000 and $30,0005
. This ambitious plan is part of Tesla's "Master Plan Part IV," which outlines a goal of "sustainable abundance" based on the expansion of AI and robotics3
.Tesla's stock modestly rose 1.4% following the announcement, outperforming the broader market
2
. Some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's AI and robotics ventures, with UBS, Wedbush, and Cantor Fitzgerald seeing promise in future Optimus lines and robotaxis2
. Goldman Sachs even suggested that humanoid robots could become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones2
.However, Tesla's pivot to robotics has been met with significant skepticism. The Optimus project has encountered production delays, partly due to trade disputes with China affecting the supply of rare-earth materials
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. Milan Kovac, who oversaw Tesla's Optimus development, stepped down from his role in June4
.Source: Axios
Tesla faces stiff competition in the humanoid robot market. Companies like Figure AI have raised substantial funding, with a potential $1.5 billion round valuing it near $40 billion
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. K-Scale Labs has developed a bot priced at $9,000 per unit, less than half of Optimus' projected starting price4
. Chinese manufacturers are also making significant strides, with industrial robot sales nearly doubling from 2017 to 20244
.Related Stories
Tesla's increased focus on robotics comes as its EV sales continue to plummet. The company reported a 13% global sales decline in the first half of 2025, with deliveries in the European Union plunging 40% in July
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. This decline is attributed to competition from lower-cost Chinese competitors, an aging lineup of electric vehicles, and controversies surrounding Musk's political rhetoric1
.Source: Benzinga
As Tesla shifts its focus from electric vehicles to robotics and AI, the company faces the challenge of delivering on its ambitious promises. While some analysts see potential in this pivot, others warn that the payoff from game-changing AI and robotics may be years away
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. The success of Optimus will depend on Tesla's ability to overcome production challenges, compete in an increasingly crowded market, and convince investors of the long-term value of its robotics vision.Summarized by
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