Elon Musk Bets Tesla's Future on Optimus Robots Amid EV Sales Slump

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

11 Sources

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Elon Musk predicts that 80% of Tesla's value will come from Optimus robots, shifting focus from electric vehicles to AI and robotics amid declining car sales and increasing competition.

Tesla's Bold Pivot to Robotics

In a striking shift of strategy, Elon Musk has declared that 80% of Tesla's future value will derive from its Optimus humanoid robots, not its electric vehicle business

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. This announcement comes as Tesla faces a multi-quarter sales slump in its core EV business, prompting Musk to redirect investor attention towards a future dominated by robotics and artificial intelligence

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The Optimus Vision

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

Musk envisions deploying "thousands" of Optimus robots in factories by year-end, with production ramping up to 1 million units annually by 2030

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. The estimated value of each robot is projected to be between $20,000 and $30,000

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. This ambitious plan is part of Tesla's "Master Plan Part IV," which outlines a goal of "sustainable abundance" based on the expansion of AI and robotics

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Market Reaction and Analyst Perspectives

Tesla's stock modestly rose 1.4% following the announcement, outperforming the broader market

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. Some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's AI and robotics ventures, with UBS, Wedbush, and Cantor Fitzgerald seeing promise in future Optimus lines and robotaxis

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. Goldman Sachs even suggested that humanoid robots could become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones

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Challenges and Skepticism

However, Tesla's pivot to robotics has been met with significant skepticism. The Optimus project has encountered production delays, partly due to trade disputes with China affecting the supply of rare-earth materials

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. Milan Kovac, who oversaw Tesla's Optimus development, stepped down from his role in June

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Competition in the Robotics Sector

Source: Axios

Source: Axios

Tesla faces stiff competition in the humanoid robot market. Companies like Figure AI have raised substantial funding, with a potential $1.5 billion round valuing it near $40 billion

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. K-Scale Labs has developed a bot priced at $9,000 per unit, less than half of Optimus' projected starting price

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. Chinese manufacturers are also making significant strides, with industrial robot sales nearly doubling from 2017 to 2024

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Tesla's EV Business Decline

Tesla's increased focus on robotics comes as its EV sales continue to plummet. The company reported a 13% global sales decline in the first half of 2025, with deliveries in the European Union plunging 40% in July

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. This decline is attributed to competition from lower-cost Chinese competitors, an aging lineup of electric vehicles, and controversies surrounding Musk's political rhetoric

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Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

The Road Ahead

As Tesla shifts its focus from electric vehicles to robotics and AI, the company faces the challenge of delivering on its ambitious promises. While some analysts see potential in this pivot, others warn that the payoff from game-changing AI and robotics may be years away

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. The success of Optimus will depend on Tesla's ability to overcome production challenges, compete in an increasingly crowded market, and convince investors of the long-term value of its robotics vision.

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