Global Market Volatility: Stocks Fall, Yen Rises Amid Economic Uncertainty

Global stocks fall and yen rises as volatility reigns

European shares fell and U.S. stock futures slipped on Thursday after turbulent sessions in Asia and on Wall Street, as investors struggled to find their footing in a wild week for markets. The yen and U.S. bonds rose as traders waited for U.S. weekly jobless claims data, which has taken on extra significance after weak employment numbers helped spark Monday's market rout. Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 index fell 0.9% after climbing 1.5% on Wednesday. Germany's DAX index was down 0.6% and Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1%. Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 were down 0.2%. The index fell 0.8% the previous day, having given up gains of as much as 1.7% in morning trading. "When you have a volatility shock like this, and you have a degree of unwind in certain positions, you're very prone to sudden reversals and also a degree of uneasiness as the adjustment continues," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "I would be surprised if we just went back to everything being fine." Japan's Nikkei share index swung from early losses of as much as 2.5% to gains of 0.8% before finishing 0.7% lower. Weak U.S. jobs data last week has combined with a dramatic rally in the Japanese yen and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble to send stocks tumbling. The S&P 500 slumped 3% on Monday and sits 2.8% lower for the week - although it still remains around 9% higher for the year. YEN BOUNCES AROUND Japan's yen rebounded somewhat on Thursday, adding to investor unease, after dropping around 1.6% on Wednesday. The dollar was last down 0.3% at 146.26 yen. The yen has surged 11% since hitting a 38-year low in July, helped by intervention from authorities, a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike, and the U.S. jobs slowdown that has weighed on the dollar. The rally has forced investors to dramatically unwind carry trades, where they borrow cheaply in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies to invest in higher yielding assets, and helped trigger a 12% plunge in Japanese stocks on Monday. Deputy BOJ Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday played down the chance of another near-term hike, but minutes released on Thursday revealed a hawkish slant among the board. The U.S. dollar index was little changed on Thursday at 103.12, after hitting an eight-month low of 102.69 on Monday. The euro and the pound were also flat. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down 6 basis points (bps) at 3.909%, after rising on Wednesday following a weak debt auction. It is down 9 bps for the week after hitting its lowest since June 2023 on Monday as traders fled to safe-haven assets and ramped up their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Yields move inversely to prices. "The rates (government bonds) market to my mind has overshot even more than the equity market," said Carl Hammer, global head of asset allocation at SEB. Hammer said markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts from central banks. "When I look at most of the growth metrics that we follow, I am not overly concerned," he said. Traders on Thursday expected around 110 bps of interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET) could shift those expectations. Crude oil dipped slightly after rising the previous day when data showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $78.06 a barrel. It hit an eight-month low of $75.05 a barrel on Monday. (Reporting by Harry Robertson in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo Editing Gareth Jones, Kirsten Donovan)

Global stocks drop and yen rises as volatility reigns

European stocks fell and U.S. futures slipped on Thursday after turbulent sessions in Asia and on Wall Street, as investors struggled to find their footing in a wild week for markets. The yen and U.S. bonds rose as traders waited for U.S. weekly jobless claims data, which has taken on extra significance after weak employment numbers helped spark Monday's Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 index fell 1% in early trading after climbing 1.5% on Wednesday. Germany's DAX index was down 0.6% and Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1.1%. Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 were down 0.4%. The index fell 0.8% the previous day, having given up gains of as much as 1.7% in morning trading. like this, and you have a degree of unwind in certain positions, you're very prone to sudden reversals and also a degree of uneasiness as the adjustment continues," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "I would be surprised if we just went back to everything being fine." Japan's Nikkei share index swung from early losses of as much as 2.5% and gains of 0.8% before finishing 0.7% lower. last week has combined with a dramatic rally in the Japanese yen and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble to send stocks tumbling. The S&P 500 tumbled 3% on Monday and sits 2.8% lower for the week - although it remains around 9% higher for the year. Japan's yen rebounded somewhat on Thursday, adding to investor unease, after dropping around 1.6% on Wednesday. The dollar was last down 0.6% at 145.76 yen. The yen has surged 11% since hitting a 38-year low in July, helped by , and a U.S. jobs slowdown that has weighed on the dollar. The rally has forced investors to dramatically unwind carry trades , where they borrow cheaply in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies to invest in higher yielding assets such as bonds and tech stocks, and helped trigger a 12% plunge in Japanese stocks on Monday. Deputy BOJ Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday played down the chance of another near-term hike, but minutes released on Thursday revealed a hawkish slant among the board. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.2% at 102.93, after hitting an eight-month low of 102.69 on Monday. The euro and the pound ticked higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down 6 basis points (bps) at 3.909%, after rising on Wednesday following a weak debt auction. It is down 9 bps for the week after hitting its lowest since June 2023 on Monday as traders fled to safe-haven assets and ramped up their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Yields move inversely to prices. "During recent volatility episodes... the promise or pricing of aggressive Fed rate cuts has proven to be as effective as actual rate cuts, via the loosening in financial conditions," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at trading platform IG. Traders on Thursday expected around 110 bps of cuts from the Fed this year. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET) could shift those expectations. Crude oil was flat after rising the previous day when data showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures added 0.1% to $78.42 a barrel. It hit an eight-month low of $75.05 a barrel on Monday. (Reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Gareth Jones)

Global stocks drop and yen rises as volatility reigns

Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 index fell 1% in early trading after climbing 1.5% on Wednesday. Germany's DAX index was down 0.6% and Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1.1%. Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 were down 0.4%. The index fell 0.8% the previous day, having given up gains of as much as 1.7% in morning trading. "When you have a volatility shock like this, and you have a degree of unwind in certain positions, you're very prone to sudden reversals and also a degree of uneasiness as the adjustment continues," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "I would be surprised if we just went back to everything being fine." Japan's Nikkei share index swung from early losses of as much as 2.5% and gains of 0.8% before finishing 0.7% lower. Weak U.S. jobs data last week has combined with a dramatic rally in the Japanese yen and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble to send stocks tumbling. The S&P 500 tumbled 3% on Monday and sits 2.8% lower for the week - although it remains around 9% higher for the year. Japan's yen rebounded somewhat on Thursday, adding to investor unease, after dropping around 1.6% on Wednesday. The dollar was last down 0.6% at 145.76 yen. The yen has surged 11% since hitting a 38-year low in July, helped by intervention from authorities, a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike, and a U.S. jobs slowdown that has weighed on the dollar. The rally has forced investors to dramatically unwind carry trades, where they borrow cheaply in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies to invest in higher yielding assets such as bonds and tech stocks, and helped trigger a 12% plunge in Japanese stocks on Monday. Deputy BOJ Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday played down the chance of another near-term hike, but minutes released on Thursday revealed a hawkish slant among the board. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.2% at 102.93, after hitting an eight-month low of 102.69 on Monday. The euro and the pound ticked higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down 6 basis points (bps) at 3.909%, after rising on Wednesday following a weak debt auction. It is down 9 bps for the week after hitting its lowest since June 2023 on Monday as traders fled to safe-haven assets and ramped up their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Yields move inversely to prices. "During recent volatility episodes... the promise or pricing of aggressive Fed rate cuts has proven to be as effective as actual rate cuts, via the loosening in financial conditions," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at trading platform IG. Traders on Thursday expected around 110 bps of cuts from the Fed this year. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET) could shift those expectations. Crude oil was flat after rising the previous day when data showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures added 0.1% to $78.42 a barrel. It hit an eight-month low of $75.05 a barrel on Monday. (Reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Gareth Jones)

Global stocks fall and yen rises as volatility reigns

Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 were down 0.2%. The index fell 0.8% the previous day, having given up gains of as much as 1.7% in morning trading. "When you have a volatility shock like this, and you have a degree of unwind in certain positions, you're very prone to sudden reversals and also a degree of uneasiness as the adjustment continues," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "I would be surprised if we just went back to everything being fine." Japan's Nikkei share index swung from early losses of as much as 2.5% to gains of 0.8% before finishing 0.7% lower. Weak U.S. jobs data last week has combined with a dramatic rally in the Japanese yen and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble to send stocks tumbling. The S&P 500 slumped 3% on Monday and sits 2.8% lower for the week - although it still remains around 9% higher for the year. YEN BOUNCES AROUND Japan's yen rebounded somewhat on Thursday, adding to investor unease, after dropping around 1.6% on Wednesday. The dollar was last down 0.3% at 146.26 yen. The yen has surged 11% since hitting a 38-year low in July, helped by intervention from authorities, a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike, and the U.S. jobs slowdown that has weighed on the dollar. The rally has forced investors to dramatically unwind carry trades, where they borrow cheaply in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies to invest in higher yielding assets, and helped trigger a 12% plunge in Japanese stocks on Monday. Deputy BOJ Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday played down the chance of another near-term hike, but minutes released on Thursday revealed a hawkish slant among the board. The U.S. dollar index was little changed on Thursday at 103.12, after hitting an eight-month low of 102.69 on Monday. The euro and the pound were also flat. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down 6 basis points (bps) at 3.909%, after rising on Wednesday following a weak debt auction. It is down 9 bps for the week after hitting its lowest since June 2023 on Monday as traders fled to safe-haven assets and ramped up their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Yields move inversely to prices. "The rates (government bonds) market to my mind has overshot even more than the equity market," said Carl Hammer, global head of asset allocation at SEB. Hammer said markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts from central banks. "When I look at most of the growth metrics that we follow, I am not overly concerned," he said. Traders on Thursday expected around 110 bps of interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET) could shift those expectations. Crude oil dipped slightly after rising the previous day when data showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $78.06 a barrel. It hit an eight-month low of $75.05 a barrel on Monday. (Reporting by Harry Robertson in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in TokyoEditing Gareth Jones, Kirsten Donovan)

European stocks dip but U.S. futures rise as data calms nerves

European shares fell on Thursday following stormy sessions in Asia and on Wall Street, but U.S. stocks were set to rise after data on jobless claims was stronger than expected. The yen rallied in the European morning session but reversed course to sit lower after the data as a turbulent week in global markets continued. U.S. figures showed there were 233,000 initial jobless claims last week, below the 240,000 expected by economists and down from 250,000 the week before. The data has taken on extra significance after weak employment numbers helped spark Monday's market rout. Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 index was last down 0.4%, after standing 0.8% lower before the data and climbing 1.5% on Wednesday. Germany's DAX index was down 0.2% and Britain's FTSE 100 0.7% lower. Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 were up 0.7%, having sat 0.1% higher before the figures. The index fell 0.8% the previous day, giving up gains of as much as 1.7% in morning trading. Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, said the jobless claims figures were somewhat opaque. "It is difficult to read a significant message in this data," he said. "At least the latest number remains on par with the previous one, without inverting the trend of rising weekly jobless claims." The dollar rose against the yen after the figures and was last up 0.3% at 147.10, following a 1.6% rally on Wednesday. The dollar index was last up 0.3% at 103.39, up from an eight-month low of 102.69 on Monday. Yields on 10-year U.S. government debt abruptly reversed course to stand 2 basis points (bps) higher at 3.989%. STORMY WEATHER Weak U.S. jobs data last week combined with a dramatic rally in the Japanese yen and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble to send stocks tumbling this week. The S&P 500 slumped 3% on Monday and sits 2.8% lower for the week - although it still remains around 9% higher for the year. Analysts said they expected markets to continue to swing in the coming days and weeks. "When you have a volatility shock like this, and you have a degree of unwind in certain positions, you're very prone to sudden reversals and also a degree of uneasiness as the adjustment continues," said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo. "I would be surprised if we just went back to everything being fine." Investors are keeping a close eye on the yen in particular, which has been at the heart of the storm. The yen has surged 11% since hitting a 38-year low in July, helped by intervention from authorities, a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike, and the U.S. jobs slowdown that has weighed on the dollar. The rally has forced investors to dramatically unwind carry trades, where they borrow cheaply in Japan to buy dollars and other currencies to invest in higher yielding assets, and helped trigger a 12% plunge in Japanese stocks on Monday. Traders on Thursday slightly reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, pricing in 105 bps of cuts by December from 110 bps beforehand. Crude oil rose again after climbing the previous day when data showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $78.49 a barrel. It hit an eight-month low of $75.05 a barrel on Monday. (Reporting by Harry Robertson Editing Gareth Jones, Kirsten Donovan and Sharon Singleton)