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On Thu, 19 Sept, 4:07 PM UTC
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India to emerge 3rd largest economy by FY31: S&P Global
India is set to become the third largest economy and transition to the upper-middle-income category by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal. While India posted GDP growth of 8.2 per cent last fiscal, exceeding the government's earlier estimate of 7.3 per cent, sustained reforms are crucial for India's economic momentum to continue, said S&P Global report "India Forward: Emerging Perspectives" released on Thursday. S&P Global expects India's real GDP to grow 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal year, moderating from a high base in fiscal 2023-24. India needs continued reforms directed towards improving business transactions and logistics, boosting private sector investment and reducing reliance on public capital. Abhishek Tomar, Chief Data Officer, S&P Global Market Intelligence, said India's medium-term prospects are healthy and filled with opportunities in multiple sectors including trade, agriculture, and AI, likely structural reforms and growing energy demands. India is poised for growth, and with a young and dynamic workforce well-positioned to shape the global economic landscape, he said. Trade benefits To maximise trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, said the report. India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels balancing energy security with its energy transition plans. Agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it said. S&P Global has forecasted a dynamic and competitive Indian equity market, bolstered by strong growth prospects and improved regulation. Goods and services tax collections reached at an all-time monthly high of ₹2.1 lakh crore in April and remained healthy in May and June. The increase in new export orders for goods and services will complement buoyant domestic demand in India and drive expansion in total sales and business activity. Qualitative data from the PMI surveys also reveal new business gains for manufacturers and service providers globally. SHARE Copy linkEmailFacebookTwitterTelegramLinkedInWhatsAppReddit Published on September 19, 2024
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India is set to become the third-largest economy by 2030-31 with projected annual growth of 6.7%, according to S&P Global
The S&P Global India Research Chapter's inaugural study finds: India has emerged as the fastest-growing large economy at an 8.2% growth rate in FY 2024The growing domestic energy demand will require balance with investments in sustainable technologiesInfrastructure development and geopolitical strategies will play an important role in maximizing trade benefits S&P Global today published its first edition of "India Forward: Emerging Perspectives", emphasizing India's projection as a leading global economy. The report highlights that India is on track to become the third-largest economy by fiscal 2030-31, driven by a robust projected annual growth rate of 6.7%. This follows an impressive GDP growth of 8.2% in the fiscal year 2024, significantly exceeding the government's earlier estimate of 7.3%. Abhishek Tomar, Head- S&P Global India Leadership Council and Chief Data Officer for S&P Global Market Intelligence said, "India's medium-term prospects are healthy and filled with opportunities in multiple sectors including trade, agriculture, and AI, likely structural reforms and growing energy demands. India is poised for growth, and with a young and dynamic workforce well-positioned to shape the global economic landscape." Key highlights include: Economy & Capital Markets: India is the fastest-growing large economy, with an 8.2% growth rate in FY 2024, surpassing earlier estimates. Continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting private sector investment, and reducing reliance on public capital. The equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation. Foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated.Geopolitical Strategy & Trade: To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline. Nearly 90% of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports.Energy and Agriculture: India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels balancing energy security with its energy transition plans. Agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability.AI and Digitalization: Leveraging AI can boost economic growth, with opportunities for public- private partnerships to replicate the success of India's digital infrastructure. "India Forward" is prepared by S&P Global and CRISIL's cross-divisional India Research Chapter, an initiative of the S&P Global India Leadership Council. This Chapter provides distinct thought leadership on India by combining local expertise, global perspectives and its full suite of capabilities. Download the "India Forward: Emerging Perspectives" here. About S&P Global S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
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India to become third-largest economy by 2030-31, says S&P Global
Abhishek Tomar, head, S&P Global India Leadership Council, and chief data officer for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, "India's medium-term prospects are healthy and filled with opportunities in multiple sectors, including trade, agriculture, and AI, likely structural reforms, and growing energy demands. India is poised for growth, and with a young and dynamic workforce, it is well-positioned to shape the global economic landscape."
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S&P Global forecasts India's rise to the third-largest economy by 2030-31, with projected annual growth of 6-7%. The report highlights India's economic potential, driven by reforms, demographics, and digital infrastructure.
India is on track to become the world's third-largest economy by fiscal year 2030-31, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings. The credit rating agency projects that India will maintain a robust annual GDP growth rate of 6.7% through this decade, outpacing many global economies 1.
Several key factors contribute to India's economic expansion:
Reforms and Policies: The government's focus on economic reforms and pro-growth policies has created a favorable environment for sustained development 2.
Demographic Dividend: India's young and growing workforce is expected to fuel economic growth and consumption 1.
Digital Infrastructure: The rapid expansion of digital infrastructure and technology adoption is enhancing productivity and creating new economic opportunities 2.
S&P Global's report provides specific projections for India's economic growth:
While the outlook is positive, India faces several challenges:
Income Inequality: Addressing the widening gap between rich and poor remains a significant concern 2.
Infrastructure Development: Continued investment in physical and social infrastructure is crucial for sustained growth 1.
Global Economic Factors: External factors such as geopolitical tensions and global economic slowdowns could impact India's growth trajectory 3.
India's economic rise is expected to have significant implications for the global economy:
As India continues its economic ascent, the world watches with keen interest, recognizing the potential for new partnerships and collaborations in the evolving global economic landscape.
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India's Economic Survey 2023-24 presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, projecting 6.5-7% GDP growth. It highlights challenges, emphasizes job creation, and outlines strategies for achieving developed nation status by 2047.
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India's Economic Survey 2023-24 projects GDP growth of 6.5-7% for FY25, sparking debate among industry leaders and experts. While some view it as conservative, others see it as a realistic forecast amid global uncertainties.
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India's Chief Economic Advisor, V. Anantha Nageswaran, cautions that the rise of artificial intelligence could decelerate growth in the country's Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector, potentially affecting services exports.
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India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal highlights the country's attractiveness for global investors, citing economic growth, safety, and currency stability as key factors.
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India's latest GDP numbers show robust growth, but experts caution against using these figures to predict future economic trends. The article explores the complexities of economic forecasting and the factors influencing India's growth trajectory.
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