Curated by THEOUTPOST
On Mon, 23 Sept, 4:03 PM UTC
13 Sources
[1]
Janus Henderson Global Real Estate Fund Q2 2024 Commentary
Not all Funds and Share classes may be available. Please consult your financial professional. Global equities rose to record highs in the second quarter, as the European Central Bank (ECB) became the first major central bank to cut interest rates, boosting hopes of similar moves elsewhere. Signs of cooling inflation in the U.S. and continued excitement about artificial intelligence underpinned the gains. However, political uncertainty returned to Europe with both the UK prime minister and French president calling snap elections. Global listed property underperformed broader equity markets, as a flat return for U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) was insufficient to offset broad-based weakness in Asia and parts of Europe. Japan showed notable weakness, and Hong Kong and China also lagged. Retail landlords and highly leveraged companies bore the brunt of this underperformance as retail sales slowed. France's decision to call a snap election caused French property stocks to fall sharply at quarter end. The UK, whose election result was anticipated well in advance, proved to be a bright spot. Spanish property stocks also performed strongly. The performance of U.S. REITs was muted during the quarter. Sector performance diverged notably, with lodging, industrial, and office all underperforming, posting negative double-digit returns in the case of lodging and industrials, the latter on the back of weak demand trends as tenants work through excess space taken during the pandemic. By contrast, apartments and healthcare performed well, as did storage landlords following an encouraging spring leasing season, suggesting the heavy pricing discounts offered over the past year may be starting to stabilize. Among the top individual contributors to relative performance during the quarter were multi-family REIT UDR (UDR) and healthcare REITs Sabra (SBRA) and Welltower (WELL). UDR saw better sequential rent growth driven by renewal pricing while also benefiting from a lower turnover rate relative to peers in the sector. Both Sabra and Welltower continue to gain from senior housing fundamentals that remain strong and moderating expense pressures as labor availability has improved. Conversely, Mexican industrial property company Vesta detracted from performance following the surprise results of the Mexican election in which the Morena party won a supermajority in both houses, heightening fears of undemocratic constitutional changes; this drove the overall Mexican equity market lower. Due to a lack of meaningful positive news in its U.S. West Coast markets, Kilroy Realty (KRC) detracted. Elsewhere, it was again a challenging quarter for U.S. industrial REITs, with First Industrial (FR) detracting from performance, although our positioning within the sector added value. During the quarter, we initiated a relative-value-driven change in our exposure within the storage space, selling Extra Space Storage (EXR) following a period of strong outperformance and adding one of its larger peers, which we believe could benefit as pricing discipline returns to the industry. Real estate markets face headwinds from a slowing economy and increasingly restrictive financial conditions. Against this backdrop, the importance of management, asset, and balance sheet quality is once again paramount. Within the sector, real estate fundamentals are likely to reflect ongoing divergence across different property types in the years ahead, driven by the themes of changing demographics, digitization, sustainability, and the convenience lifestyle. In our view, therefore, it remains crucial to be selective. While the direct property market is taking time to adjust to the challenging macroeconomic landscape, the listed market has reacted already, resulting in shares trading at historically wide discounts to previous asset values and reflecting a highly uncertain environment. This may overlook the attractive, reliable, and growing income streams that many real estate companies can generate for investors, as well as their ongoing access to capital. We think these characteristics could reward investors with current income and growth over time. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[2]
Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Growth Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
As we await the economic landing, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. Global Multi-Asset Growth Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. An allocation to equities detracted from relative performance. The portfolio averaged an overweight in U.S. shares. This exposure dampened relative performance, partly because of exposure to mid- and small-cap growth stocks that underperformed large caps in an uneven market rally. The portfolio averaged an underweight in international equities. These holdings contributed moderately to relative performance. Fixed income investments contributed to relative performance. This was largely due to a significant underweight in unhedged international sovereigns, which declined over the period. A portfolio overweight in U.S. fixed income was also beneficial. The portfolio's equity and fixed income exposures during the period averaged 83.62% and 13.81%, respectively. The global economy and financial markets entered 2024 in a fragile state. Expectations for a dovish policy pivot were pushing up valuations across asset classes, disregarding the risk posed by sticky inflation. Fast forward several months, and underneath noisy market reactions to nearly every data release are signals of a still resilient economy. But with uncertain timing on central bank policy, geopolitical headwinds, and many notable elections this year, investors are in a holding pattern. As we await the economic landing, now may be the opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. While services inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like, the U.S. central bank believes enough progress has been made that it will likely commence rate cuts in the second half of the year. From a risk perspective, U.S. wage growth could continue fueling services inflation. Exacerbating the situation is a possible end of goods disinflation, which could further delay cuts. Earlier this year, we expressed caution about rich stock valuations, which briefly subsided as investors sold equities and dialed back their most dovish scenarios in the wake of successive hot inflation readings. Since that retreat, equities have retraced their earlier ascent as economic resilience has dominated inflation as the more important theme. Technology has led the recent rally and become more expensive based on some metrics, yet in our view still has a strong and extended upward trajectory. However, exposure to the right names within the sector will be key. We believe opportunities remain in emerging markets, global small- and mid-cap companies, Europe, and sectors like real estate and healthcare. All look relatively cheap while potentially offering earnings growth, which is starting to broaden out. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries will have to find a balance between the positive implications of potential Fed cuts this year and the negative implications posed nascent weakness in the labor market accelerating. Sovereign prospects look better in Europe, with easing wage growth in the UK and progress on inflation and flagging growth likely to encourage the ECB to continue taking action. We remain cautious on U.S. investment-grade credit as narrow spreads make them particularly sensitive to the same duration risks Treasuries face. In contrast, outside fixed income's core, an extended cycle should support certain quality high-yield issuers globally, although spreads are nearing historically tight levels compared to the relative margin of safety offered by many securitized markets. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
[3]
Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Aggressive Growth Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
As we await the economic landing, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. Global Multi-Asset Aggressive Growth Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. The Fund averaged an underweight position in U.S. equities. These U.S.-based equity investments detracted from relative performance, partly because of exposure to mid- and small- cap growth stocks that underperformed large caps in an uneven market rally. The portfolio averaged an overweight in international equities. These holdings contributed moderately to relative performance. The portfolio's equity and fixed income exposures during the period averaged 97.63% and 0.00%, respectively. The global economy and financial markets entered 2024 in a fragile state. Expectations for a dovish policy pivot were pushing up valuations across asset classes, disregarding the risk posed by sticky inflation. Fast forward several months, and underneath noisy market reactions to nearly every data release are signals of a still resilient economy. But with uncertain timing on central bank policy, geopolitical headwinds, and many notable elections this year, investors are in a holding pattern. As we await the economic landing, now may be the opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. While services inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like, the U.S. central bank believes enough progress has been made that it will likely commence rate cuts in the second half of the year. From a risk perspective, U.S. wage growth could continue fueling services inflation. Exacerbating the situation is a possible end of goods disinflation, which could further delay cuts. Earlier this year, we expressed caution about rich stock valuations, which briefly subsided as investors sold equities and dialed back their most dovish scenarios in the wake of successive hot inflation readings. Since that retreat, equities have retraced their earlier ascent as economic resilience has dominated inflation as the more important theme. Technology has led the recent rally and become more expensive based on some metrics, yet in our view still has a strong and extended upward trajectory. However, exposure to the right names within the sector will be key. We believe opportunities remain in emerging markets, global small- and mid-cap companies, Europe, and sectors like real estate and healthcare. All look relatively cheap while potentially offering earnings growth, which is starting to broaden out. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries will have to find a balance between the positive implications of potential Fed cuts this year and the negative implications posed nascent weakness in the labor market accelerating. Sovereign prospects look better in Europe, with easing wage growth in the UK and progress on inflation and flagging growth likely to encourage the ECB to continue taking action. We remain cautious on U.S. investment-grade credit as narrow spreads make them particularly sensitive to the same duration risks Treasuries face. In contrast, outside fixed income's core, an extended cycle should support certain quality high-yield issuers globally, although spreads are nearing historically tight levels compared to the relative margin of safety offered by many securitized markets. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[4]
Janus Henderson Global Equity Income Fund Q2 2024 Commentary
Not all Funds and Share classes may be available. Please consult your financial professional. Global markets rose during the second quarter. April began on a subdued note with escalating concerns over persistent inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, and Brent crude oil prices rose above $92/bbl, receding as tensions did not escalate further. Markets rebounded in May, with indices like the S&P 500 (SP500, SPX) and STOXX Europe 600 reaching new highs. Market sentiment was improved by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell suggesting that rates hikes are unlikely at this stage. By June, attention shifted toward rate reductions, with the European Central Bank implementing its first post-pandemic rate cut and the Bank of Canada following suit. This marked a turning point, with four G10 central banks reducing rates within the year. Despite the Fed maintaining rates in the second quarter, a slowdown in the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, reported in June, reinforced expectations for future Fed rate cuts. Throughout the period, sovereign bonds faced headwinds, partly due to market anticipation of a slower cycle of rate reductions. Political events regained prominence in June with the European Parliamentary elections and President Macron's announcement of a snap legislative election in France, causing a significant sell-off in French assets and a notable widening of the Franco-German 10-year spread, reminiscent of the sovereign debt crisis. The quarter highlighted a stark contrast between the performance of U.S. mega-cap stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7," and other market segments that showed relative weakness. This disparity was mirrored in the performance of assets, with metals like silver, platinum, and copper achieving significant gains, while French assets, European sovereign bonds, the Japanese Yen, and certain agricultural commodities experienced notable declines. During the quarter, the portfolio's underweight exposure to the information technology sector was detrimental to relative returns. Not holding low/no dividend-yielding technology companies detracted from performance, as these firms benefited from ongoing excitement about AI. Holdings within the semiconductor sector also underperformed after a period of strength during the first four months of the year. In utilities, negative stock selection impacted relative results. Driven by stock selection, materials was the portfolio's best-performing sector on a relative basis. British mining company Anglo American (OTCQX:AAUKF) benefited from rising iron ore and copper prices, and the share price rallied further on the news that the company had received an unsolicited bid at a premium to its share price. Although the proposed acquisition failed and the shares pulled back from their highs, the position ended the quarter with positive returns. Stock selection in the energy sector also was beneficial on a relative basis. Falling inflation should allow central banks more maneuverability in the event of an economic slowdown, which is certainly good news. So far, the global economy has coped well, with interest rates higher than many commentators expected. Long-term structural trends, such as technological innovation, decarbonization, and supply chain security, are driving an increase in capital spending across a range of industries, while the narrow breadth in the market presents opportunities for investors to identify those busineses with better earnings momentum than currently forecast. This is where we are focusing our attention in the second half of 2024. We remain confident that the companies held in the portfolio can navigate the current conditions well, aided by strong balance sheets and cash-generating abilities. Shareholder returns remain positive, both in terms of dividends and share buybacks, which suggests that management teams echo our confidence in the long-term outlooks for their companies. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[5]
Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Moderate Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
As we await the economic landing, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. Global Multi-Asset Moderate Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. An overweight allocation to U.S. equities detracted from relative performance. This was partly because of exposure to mid- and small-cap growth stocks that underperformed large caps in an uneven market rally. The portfolio held a slight underweight in international equities. These holdings contributed moderately to relative performance. Fixed income investments contributed to the portfolio's relative performance. This was largely due to a significant underweight in unhedged international sovereigns, which declined over the period. A portfolio in U.S. fixed income was also beneficial. Over the period, the portfolio's equity and fixed income exposures averaged 64.20% and 33.27%, respectively. The global economy and financial markets entered 2024 in a fragile state. Expectations for a dovish policy pivot were pushing up valuations across asset classes, disregarding the risk posed by sticky inflation. Fast forward several months, and underneath noisy market reactions to nearly every data release are signals of a still resilient economy. But with uncertain timing on central bank policy, geopolitical headwinds, and many notable elections this year, investors are in a holding pattern. As we await the economic landing, now may be the opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. While services inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like, the U.S. central bank believes enough progress has been made that it will likely commence rate cuts in the second half of the year. From a risk perspective, U.S. wage growth could continue fueling services inflation. Exacerbating the situation is a possible end of goods disinflation, which could further delay cuts. Earlier this year, we expressed caution about rich stock valuations, which briefly subsided as investors sold equities and dialed back their most dovish scenarios in the wake of successive hot inflation readings. Since that retreat, equities have retraced their earlier ascent as economic resilience has dominated inflation as the more important theme. Technology has led the recent rally and become more expensive based on some metrics, yet in our view still has a strong and extended upward trajectory. However, exposure to the right names within the sector will be key. We believe opportunities remain in emerging markets, global small- and mid-cap companies, Europe, and sectors like real estate and healthcare. All look relatively cheap while potentially offering earnings growth, which is starting to broaden out. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries will have to find a balance between the positive implications of potential Fed cuts this year and the negative implications posed nascent weakness in the labor market accelerating. Sovereign prospects look better in Europe, with easing wage growth in the UK and progress on inflation and flagging growth likely to encourage the ECB to continue taking action. We remain cautious on U.S. investment-grade credit as narrow spreads make them particularly sensitive to the same duration risks Treasuries face. In contrast, outside fixed income's core, an extended cycle should support certain quality high-yield issuers globally, although spreads are nearing historically tight levels compared to the relative margin of safety offered by many securitized markets. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[6]
Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Conservative Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
As we await the economic landing, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. Global Multi-Asset Conservative Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. An overweight allocation to U.S. equities detracted from relative performance. This was partly because of exposure to mid- and small-cap growth stocks that underperformed large caps in an uneven market rally. The portfolio held a slight underweight in international equities. These holdings contributed moderately to relative performance. Fixed income investments contributed to relative performance. This was largely due to a significant underweight in unhedged international sovereigns, which declined over the period. A portfolio overweight in U.S. fixed income was also beneficial. The portfolio's equity and fixed income exposures during the period averaged 44.25% and 53.19%, respectively. The global economy and financial markets entered 2024 in a fragile state. Expectations for a dovish policy pivot were pushing up valuations across asset classes, disregarding the risk posed by sticky inflation. Fast forward several months, and underneath noisy market reactions to nearly every data release are signals of a still resilient economy. But with uncertain timing on central bank policy, geopolitical headwinds, and many notable elections this year, investors are in a holding pattern. As we await the economic landing, now may be the opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. While services inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like, the U.S. central bank believes enough progress has been made that it will likely commence rate cuts in the second half of the year. From a risk perspective, U.S. wage growth could continue fueling services inflation. Exacerbating the situation is a possible end of goods disinflation, which could further delay cuts. Earlier this year, we expressed caution about rich stock valuations, which briefly subsided as investors sold equities and dialed back their most dovish scenarios in the wake of successive hot inflation readings. Since that retreat, equities have retraced their earlier ascent as economic resilience has dominated inflation as the more important theme. Technology has led the recent rally and become more expensive based on some metrics, yet in our view still has a strong and extended upward trajectory. However, exposure to the right names within the sector will be key. We believe opportunities remain in emerging markets, global small- and mid-cap companies, Europe, and sectors like real estate and healthcare. All look relatively cheap while potentially offering earnings growth, which is starting to broaden out. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries will have to find a balance between the positive implications of potential Fed cuts this year and the negative implications posed nascent weakness in the labor market accelerating. Sovereign prospects look better in Europe, with easing wage growth in the UK and progress on inflation and flagging growth likely to encourage the ECB to continue taking action. We remain cautious on U.S. investment-grade credit as narrow spreads make them particularly sensitive to the same duration risks Treasuries face. In contrast, outside fixed income's core, an extended cycle should support certain quality high-yield issuers globally, although spreads are nearing historically tight levels compared to the relative margin of safety offered by many securitized markets. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[7]
Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Capital Preservation Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
As we await the economic landing, we believe it is an opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. Global Multi-Asset Capital Preservation Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. The portfolio held a slight underweight in U.S. equities. These U.S. equity investments detracted from relative performance. This was partly because of exposure to mid- and small-cap growth stocks that underperformed large caps in an uneven market rally. The portfolio averaged a small overweight in international equities. These holdings modestly contributed to relative performance. The impact of the portfolio's fixed income investments was mixed. An average overweight in international sovereigns detracted over the period, while an underweight position in U.S. fixed income contributed. The portfolio's equity and fixed income exposures during the period averaged 22.36% and 75.36%, respectively. The global economy and financial markets entered 2024 in a fragile state. Expectations for a dovish policy pivot were pushing up valuations across asset classes, disregarding the risk posed by sticky inflation. Fast forward several months, and underneath noisy market reactions to nearly every data release are signals of a still resilient economy. But with uncertain timing on central bank policy, geopolitical headwinds, and many notable elections this year, investors are in a holding pattern. As we await the economic landing, now may be the opportune time for investors to judiciously increase risk to benefit from a cycle extension. While services inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like, the U.S. central bank believes enough progress has been made that it will likely commence rate cuts in the second half of the year. From a risk perspective, U.S. wage growth could continue fueling services inflation. Exacerbating the situation is a possible end of goods disinflation, which could further delay cuts. Earlier this year, we expressed caution about rich stock valuations, which briefly subsided as investors sold equities and dialed back their most dovish scenarios in the wake of successive hot inflation readings. Since that retreat, equities have retraced their earlier ascent as economic resilience has dominated inflation as the more important theme. Technology has led the recent rally and become more expensive based on some metrics, yet in our view still has a strong and extended upward trajectory. However, exposure to the right names within the sector will be key. We believe opportunities remain in emerging markets, global small- and mid-cap companies, Europe, and sectors like real estate and healthcare. All look relatively cheap while potentially offering earnings growth, which is starting to broaden out. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries will have to find a balance between the positive implications of potential Fed cuts this year and the negative implications posed nascent weakness in the labor market accelerating. Sovereign prospects look better in Europe, with easing wage growth in the UK and progress on inflation and flagging growth likely to encourage the ECB to continue taking action. We remain cautious on U.S. investment-grade credit as narrow spreads make them particularly sensitive to the same duration risks Treasuries face. In contrast, outside fixed income's core, an extended cycle should support certain quality high-yield issuers globally, although spreads are nearing historically tight levels compared to the relative margin of safety offered by many securitized markets. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[8]
Janus Henderson Global Adaptive Capital Growth Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
Recession and inflation risks have subsided, but we are closely monitoring elevated political and fiscal policy factors that may impact risk assets. Global Adaptive Capital Growth Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Global market performance was mixed as investors weighed signs of moderating inflation against increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points in June, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England left rates unchanged. U.S. stocks were strong positive performers, as excitement around artificial intelligence drove a narrow rally led by large-cap equities. Non-U.S. equities lagged U.S. shares. U.S. bonds rose moderately on hopes for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. Fixed-income investments declined outside of the U.S., reflecting divergence in monetary policies. Political uncertainty also raised risk premiums. Favorable results within the portfolio's fixed-income allocation were due to a zero weighting in international bonds. Non-U.S. issuance underperformed U.S. fixed income during the period. A lack of exposure to U.S. fixed income detracted slightly. The portfolio averaged an overweight position in U.S. equities. Part of that overweight was in small-cap stocks, which have appeared attractive based on forward-looking tail risk estimates derived from option market prices. This exposure detracted from relative performance amid an uneven equity market rally. An overweight allocation to international equities was a moderate positive contributor, however. The portfolio's equity and fixed-income exposures during the period averaged 97.60% and 0.00%, respectively. Inflation largely remains higher than 2.0% target levels in many countries, but the recent disinflationary trend shows that monetary policy is yielding its desired effects (helped by supply issues resolving). And it is doing so without crippling growth, thus keeping the "soft to no landing" thesis intact. Central bank success in fighting inflation has been nothing but remarkable given that history is fraught with examples of policy errors, which today have been avoided with adept scrutiny and data-driven responses. Normalization of monetary policy is likely sooner rather than later. Consistent with the macro backdrop, we estimate the expected risk profile for global equities - based on the market prices of equity options - to be skewed more positively than average levels. But, this attractiveness has fallen from the highs of earlier this year. We believe the road ahead may not be as significantly rewarding, but it is still rewarding. Further support of equity attractiveness is that downside risks remain muted. We see greater attractiveness to non-U.S. markets compared to U.S. stocks. In our view, fixed-income and commodity attractiveness is greater than average, as well. Overall, across asset classes, attractiveness abounds, reflecting a "soft landing" narrative, but not one void of risk. While recession and inflation risks have subsided, a newfound risk - political uncertainty - has quickly emerged. It has rapidly accelerated in the U.S. as the election season serves up a series of meaningful developments. Similarly, across the Atlantic, political risk is front and center. The "snap" election in France has led to gridlock with neither the left nor right securing a majority. Both European equities and bond markets have been dragged down over fiscal policy concerns. Importantly, corporate Europe does not have the strong AI tailwind that the U.S. enjoys. According to academic research, the political risk premium is one of the most attractive risk premiums to bear. In our view, the reward embedded in the premium can be high once uncertainty dissipates. The options market currently shares this view. This is most clearly seen in the asymmetric pricing of risk on French assets, where political uncertainty is arguably the greatest. As the busy global election season continues to unfold and the effects of restrictive monetary policy are further felt on economic growth, we will vigilantly monitor the myriad risks present in the market and be prepared to adjust our relatively sanguine outlook for major asset classes accordingly. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[9]
Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Fund Q2 2024 Commentary
Not all Funds and Share classes may be available. Please consult your financial professional. The U.S. fixed income market registered a slight quarterly gain, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returning 0.07%. High-yield corporates and securitized credit sectors outperformed comparable-maturity Treasuries. A couple of sticky inflation prints and continued economic resilience drove yields higher early in the quarter, as investors were forced to reconsider the expected pace of rate cuts forecasted for 2024. In the back half of the quarter, yields retraced their earlier losses as inflation returned to its downward trend, and the Fed continued to signal that they would start cutting rates in 2024. While jobs growth remained healthy, other economic data showed signs that the labor market is coming back into better balance and that economic growth is cooling. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury (US10Y) ended the quarter at 4.40% relative to 4.20% at the end of March. Corporate investment-grade credit spreads widened marginally to 94 basis points (bps), while high-yield credit spreads also ended the quarter slightly wider at 309 bps. Our outperformance during the quarter was driven by our sector allocation decisions. Specifically, our overweight allocations to securitized credit and high-yield corporates contributed, as did security selection within investment-grade corporates. Our overweight to securitized credit drove our outperformance, and we have maintained that exposure. We did trim our allocation to agency mortgage-backed securities ('MBS') over the quarter, though we remain overweight MBS risk. Despite corporate spreads widening slightly during the quarter, they remain near their historical tight levels - a sign that the corporate credit market has firmly embraced the soft landing. High yield outperformed investment-grade corporates and Treasuries on the back of strong fundamentals and favorable demand-supply dynamics. We increased our allocation to high yield during the quarter, as we were able to identify attractively priced assets in the new issue market. Incoming economic data, earnings, and strong technicals continue to support a favorable outlook for the sector. With respect to yield curve positioning, we entered the period with a modest duration overweight and actively managed duration throughout the quarter. We closed out the period with a small duration overweight, as we believe rates are likely to fall in 2024 due to declining inflation. We also like the defensive characteristics of higher-duration exposure in the event the economy cools more quickly than expected. Thematically, growth in technology sectors fueled by artificial intelligence has driven strong demand for data center infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing facilities. We have strategically acquired asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds to gain exposure to these sectors, and we continue to seek out attractive investment opportunities in the space. As we look toward the latter half of 2024, market participants are grappling with questions of when and by how much the Fed will cut rates. The central bank remains committed to its data-dependent stance, and as a result, rates markets continue to fluctuate with each relevant data release. Presently, expectations are for one to two rate cuts in 2024. While economic growth, jobs growth, and corporate earnings have been robust, we are starting to see some softening in the economy and the labor market. We do not believe this is cause for investor concern. Rather, we see the slowing of the economy as the key to bringing inflation back to target, ultimately unlocking rate cuts. Simply put, the economy appears to be slowly slowing, but not stalling. We still believe we are at the beginning of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. While the start date and cadence may be open questions, the fact that the Fed is shifting cycles is positive for fixed income markets in the long run, both from a returns and diversification perspective. We acknowledge that corporate spreads are tight versus historical metrics, but the favorable macroeconomic environment, coupled with strong technicals and fundamentals, continues to support these valuation levels. We are closely monitoring valuations in light of the economic landscape and are ready to adjust as required should conditions change. Additionally, we seek to find attractive opportunities in the primary issue market and in securitized credit sectors, which look cheap versus corporates on a relative value basis. Overall, we favor an overweight to both credit spread risk and interest rate risk, as corporates and consumers remain largely resilient and the Fed readies itself for rate cuts. We expect that the recent strong demand for the fixed income asset class could continue and potentially accelerate once the Fed starts cutting rates, as investors aim to lock in attractive yields and benefit from the diversification that bonds may bring to multi-asset portfolios. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[10]
Janus Henderson Forty Fund Q2 2024 Commentary
Not all Funds and Share classes may be available. Please consult your financial professional. Following a very strong first quarter, the Russell 1000 Growth Index continued gains in the second quarter. Inflation moderated but remained above central bank target levels. This led to uncertainty over the timing of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, the 10-year Treasury bond (US10Y) yield retreated off April highs as investors grew more hopeful that slower economic growth and easing core inflation could lead the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming months. The market advance was relatively narrow, driven by mega-cap technology stocks with artificial intelligence exposure. That said, first-quarter earnings and guidance for the second quarter were broadly solid and supportive of market gains. While economic news was generally positive, there were signs that higher living costs were putting a strain on consumer spending. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), a top contributor to relative performance, is the world's largest foundry manufacturer of semiconductors. TSMC controls over 60% of its global market and is a major fabricator of graphics processing units (GPUs) - including Nvidia's - that are integral to the AI buildout. The stock rose on TSMC's increased revenue outlook as demand soared for Nvidia's H100 and B100 GPUs. We believe TSMC has a long runway of growth, supported by its technology leadership in manufacturing and packaging, and we are constructive on the company's opportunity to optimize pricing. Howmet Aerospace (HWM), a manufacturer of specialized aircraft components, was another top contributor to relative performance. The stock experienced a notable performance boost after beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year guidance. The company benefited from a resurgence in air travel, pushing commercial aerospace sales up by 23%. Despite the potential sales impact from Boeing's 737 MAX production challenges, the extended operation of existing airline fleets could lead to heightened demand for spare parts, offsetting concerns. Real estate analytics company CoStar (CSGP) detracted from performance. Higher interest rates have created headwinds for the company's core commercial real estate market. A lack of growth in its brokerage customer base has led to lower demand for CoStar's products in the near term. Further, the company has significantly invested in growing its residential segment with various offerings, but this pivot has recently reduced profitability amid a slowdown in that area. Workday (WDAY), another detractor, develops and sells subscription- based enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The stock declined after the company reduced full-year guidance for subscription revenue growth. The company closed fewer deals than expected in the first quarter, while its revenues per deal declined as corporate customers reduced headcount. On a positive note, Workday reported better-than-anticipated margins in the first quarter and announced plans to launch an AI-powered marketplace. Going forward, we will continue to monitor the challenging software spending environment stemming from a shift in IT budget spending toward AI. At the year's midpoint, U.S. equity returns have shown strength, bolstered by optimism around AI, declining inflation, healthy employment, and less hawkish commentary from the Fed. Furthermore, infrastructure investment, including both AI-related data center projects and government-funded initiatives, is fueling economic growth, with non-residential construction demand remaining particularly strong. While recognizing these reasons for optimism, we continue to approach the market with a balanced perspective and are monitoring for signs of an economic or consumer slowdown. Consumer spending remains fairly healthy, but we are starting to see pockets of normalization, predominantly in lower-income segments. We are closely watching the employment market for signs of weakening, but for now, unemployment levels remain below historical averages, and year-over-year wage growth still exceeds inflation levels. Market returns continue to be driven by the largest constituents. The second quarter represented the third- largest quarterly outperformance differential between the market-cap-weighted and the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index (SP500, SPX) since 1989.1 Combined with similar results in the first quarter, market concentration has increased so far in 2024. In the Russell 1000 Growth Index, about 60% of the index weight is now concentrated in the nine largest companies and about 75% in the top 25. While we continue to own many of these large stocks, we are increasingly finding attractive investment ideas outside of the largest names in the index. We believe a less top-heavy portfolio could benefit relative performance if we see a broadening market. While we continue to monitor macroeconomic and market trends, our primary focus remains on evaluating companies' business models as bottom-up fundamental investors. We look for competitively advantaged companies in healthy, growing end markets that have the ability to thrive regardless of the economic backdrop. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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Janus Henderson European Focus Fund Q2 2024 Commentary
Not all Funds and Share classes may be available. Please consult your financial professional. Amid upgraded economic growth expectations for 2024 that saw a broadening of the equity market rally, sentiment was positive toward European equities at the start of the second quarter. Positive sentiment persisted when the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its first interest rate cut since 2019, lowering its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Equities reversed course in June, as French President Macron announced a snap legislative election, sparking investor fears that the far-right or far-left parties would leap ahead significantly and implement fiscally damaging policies. June also saw signs of weakness in global macroeconomic indicators, raising doubts about near-term economic momentum. During the quarter, European beneficiaries of artificial intelligence once again led the way. Within the portfolio, semiconductor stocks ASM International (OTCQX:ASMIY) and Infineon Technologies (OTCQX:IFNNY) were among the top contributors to relative performance. We met both management teams during the quarter, with each confirming the strong momentum in AI- related orders. The prior semiconductor sector downswing was the second-longest on record, so perhaps there is a good chance that this present cycle upswing can also overshoot historic averages. The top detractor on a relative basis was Renk Group AG (OTCPK:RNKGF), a provider of military vehicle mobility solutions, which, along with other European Union defense holdings, was vulnerable to a rotation of sentiment after a very strong six months. Our projections for government spending only gain in conviction with the research we have carried out in the space. Danish multinational brewer Carlsberg (OTCPK:CABGY) also detracted, following the company's bid for a leading UK soft-drink distributor. As we type these lines, the first parliamentary election results from France are just in. They suggest a lack of a clear majority in Parliament and likely open a period of uncertainty over France's political direction. While the specter of a far-right majority has been averted, the far left fared a lot better than expected. It is not a cohesive group, but some members of the alliance admittedly have economically quite disastrous policy targets. It stands to hope that the more centrist parties can break the leftist alliance and find a way to work together in parliament. Otherwise, we could perhaps experience a breakdown in the Franco-German cooperation that is so crucial in holding the EU together and shaping it well. This would be a new level of crisis, very different from the experiences of the past when a strong and solid European core was dealing with troubles at the periphery. This could hit Europe at the core. Just how the ECB would react is entirely unclear in our view. Another concern that is reflecting in equity markets is the probability of a U.S. recession. There has been a clear focus on recent weaker U.S. economic growth and labor market data. In our view, however, the risks here are less pronounced. We think the chances for a soft or no landing are still decent. Inventory destocking over the last two years should also have built up a safety cushion against a deep recession, given many of the global production chains are already undersupplying the rate of demand. Further deep inventory adjustments seem unlikely. Finally, against the backdrop of a softening labor market and receding inflation, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts should rise significantly, a positive for equity markets. Political uncertainty remains high, while the developed market economies are probably just strong enough to work themselves out of this very long stretch of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) below-50 reading (indicating market contraction). The leading Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders over Inventory series is encouraging. More monetary help seems on the nearer-term horizon. Against this background of likely volatility that possibly could be beneficial for equities, we continue to feel good about our opportunity set at this half- year mark for 2024. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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Janus Henderson Concentrated Growth Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
While monitoring signs of economic weakness, we remain optimistic and are increasingly finding attractive growth opportunities outside top index names as market concentration rises. Concentrated Growth Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Following a very strong first quarter, the Russell 1000 Growth Index continued gains in the second quarter. Inflation moderated but remained above central bank target levels. This led to uncertainty over the timing of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, the 10-year Treasury bond (US10Y) yield retreated off April highs as investors grew more hopeful that slower economic growth and easing core inflation could lead the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming months. The market advance was relatively narrow, driven by mega-cap technology stocks with artificial intelligence exposure. That said, first-quarter earnings and guidance for the second quarter were broadly solid and supportive of market gains. While economic news was generally positive, there were signs that higher living costs were putting a strain on consumer spending. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), a top contributor to relative performance, is the world's largest foundry manufacturer of semiconductors. TSMC controls over 60% of its global market and is a major fabricator of graphics processing units (GPUs) - including Nvidia's (NVDA) - that are integral to the AI buildout. The stock rose on TSMC's increased revenue outlook as demand soared for Nvidia's H100 and B100 GPUs. We believe TSMC has a long runway of growth, supported by its technology leadership in manufacturing and packaging, and we are constructive on the company's opportunity to optimize pricing. Howmet Aerospace (HWM), a manufacturer of specialized aircraft components, was another top contributor to relative performance. The stock experienced a notable performance boost after beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year guidance. The company benefited from a resurgence in air travel, pushing commercial aerospace sales up by 23%. Despite the potential sales impact from Boeing's 737 MAX production challenges, the extended operation of existing airline fleets could lead to heightened demand for spare parts, offsetting concerns. Real estate analytics company CoStar (CSGP) detracted from performance. Higher interest rates have created headwinds for the company's core commercial real estate market. A lack of growth in its brokerage customer base has led to lower demand for CoStar's products in the near term. Further, the company has significantly invested in growing its residential segment with various offerings, but this pivot has recently reduced profitability amid a slowdown in that area. Workday (WDAY), another detractor, develops and sells subscription- based enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The stock declined after the company reduced full-year guidance for subscription revenue growth. The company closed fewer deals than expected in the first quarter, while its revenues per deal declined as corporate customers reduced headcount. On a positive note, Workday reported better-than-anticipated margins in the first quarter and announced plans to launch an AI-powered marketplace. Going forward, we will continue to monitor the challenging software spending environment stemming from a shift in IT budget spending toward AI. At the year's midpoint, U.S. equity returns have shown strength, bolstered by optimism around AI, declining inflation, healthy employment, and less hawkish commentary from the Fed. Furthermore, infrastructure investment, including both AI-related data center projects and government-funded initiatives, is fueling economic growth, with non-residential construction demand remaining particularly strong. While recognizing these reasons for optimism, we continue to approach the market with a balanced perspective and are monitoring for signs of an economic or consumer slowdown. Consumer spending remains fairly healthy, but we are starting to see pockets of normalization, predominantly in lower-income segments. We are closely watching the employment market for signs of weakening, but for now, unemployment levels remain below historical averages, and year-over-year wage growth still exceeds inflation levels. Market returns continue to be driven by the largest constituents. The second quarter represented the third-largest quarterly outperformance differential between the market-cap-weighted and the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index (SP500, SPX) since 1989.1 Combined with similar results in the first quarter, market concentration has increased so far in 2024. In the Russell 1000 Growth Index, about 60% of the index weight is now concentrated in the nine largest companies and about 75% in the top 25. While we continue to own many of these large stocks, we are increasingly finding attractive investment ideas outside of the largest names in the index. We believe a less top-heavy portfolio could benefit relative performance if we see a broadening market. While we continue to monitor macroeconomic and market trends, our primary focus remains on evaluating companies' business models as bottom-up fundamental investors. We look for competitively advantaged companies in healthy, growing end markets that have the ability to thrive regardless of the economic backdrop. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
[13]
Janus Henderson Concentrated All Cap Growth Managed Account Q2 2024 Commentary
While monitoring signs of economic weakness, we remain optimistic and are increasingly finding attractive growth opportunities outside top index names as market concentration rises. Concentrated All Cap Growth Managed Account Performance - USD (%) (as of 06/30/24) Following a very strong first quarter, the Russell 3000 Growth Index continued gains in the second quarter. Inflation moderated but remained above central bank target levels. This led to uncertainty over the timing of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, the 10-year Treasury bond yield retreated off April highs as investors grew more hopeful that slower economic growth and easing core inflation could lead the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming months. The market advance was relatively narrow, driven by mega-cap technology stocks with artificial intelligence exposure. That said, first-quarter earnings and guidance for the second quarter were broadly solid and supportive of market gains. While economic news was generally positive, there were signs that higher living costs were putting a strain on consumer spending. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), a top contributor to relative performance, is the world's largest foundry manufacturer of semiconductors. TSMC controls over 60% of its global market and is a major fabricator of graphics processing units (GPUs) - including Nvidia's (NVDA) - that are integral to the AI buildout. The stock rose on TSMC's increased revenue outlook as demand soared for Nvidia's H100 and B100 GPUs. We believe TSMC has a long runway of growth, supported by its technology leadership in manufacturing and packaging, and we are constructive on the company's opportunity to optimize pricing. Howmet Aerospace (HWM), a manufacturer of specialized aircraft components, was another top contributor to relative performance. The stock experienced a notable performance boost after beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year guidance. The company benefited from a resurgence in air travel, pushing commercial aerospace sales up by 23%. Despite the potential sales impact from Boeing's 737 MAX production challenges, the extended operation of existing airline fleets could lead to heightened demand for spare parts, offsetting concerns. Real estate analytics company CoStar (CSGP) detracted from performance. Higher interest rates have created headwinds for the company's core commercial real estate market. A lack of growth in its brokerage customer base has led to lower demand for CoStar's products in the near term. Further, the company has significantly invested in growing its residential segment with various offerings, but this pivot has recently reduced profitability amid a slowdown in that area. Workday (WDAY) another detractor, develops and sells subscription- based enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The stock declined after the company reduced full-year guidance for subscription revenue growth. The company closed fewer deals than expected in the first quarter, while its revenues per deal declined as corporate customers reduced headcount. On a positive note, Workday reported better-than-anticipated margins in the first quarter and announced plans to launch an AI-powered marketplace. Going forward, we will continue to monitor the challenging software spending environment stemming from a shift in IT budget spending toward AI. At the year's midpoint, U.S. equity returns have shown strength, bolstered by optimism around AI, declining inflation, healthy employment, and less hawkish commentary from the Fed. Furthermore, infrastructure investment, including both AI-related data center projects and government-funded initiatives, is fueling economic growth, with non-residential construction demand remaining particularly strong. While recognizing these reasons for optimism, we continue to approach the market with a balanced perspective and are monitoring for signs of an economic or consumer slowdown. Consumer spending remains fairly healthy, but we are starting to see pockets of normalization, predominantly in lower-income segments. We are closely watching the employment market for signs of weakening, but for now, unemployment levels remain below historical averages, and year-over-year wage growth still exceeds inflation levels. Market returns continue to be driven by the largest constituents. The second quarter represented the third- largest quarterly outperformance differential between the market-cap-weighted and the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index (SP500, SPX) since 1989.1 Combined with similar results in the first quarter, market concentration has increased so far in 2024. In the Russell 3000 Growth Index, about 58% of the index weight is now concentrated in the nine largest companies and about 72% in the top 25. While we continue to own many of these large stocks, we are increasingly finding attractive investment ideas outside of the largest names in the index. We believe a less top-heavy portfolio could benefit relative performance if we see a broadening market. While we continue to monitor macroeconomic and market trends, our primary focus remains on evaluating companies' business models as bottom-up fundamental investors. We look for competitively advantaged companies in healthy, growing end markets that have the ability to thrive regardless of the economic backdrop. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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An in-depth look at the Q2 2024 performance of various Janus Henderson funds, including Global Real Estate, Multi-Asset Growth, Multi-Asset Aggressive Growth, Global Equity Income, and Multi-Asset Moderate Managed Account.
The Janus Henderson Global Real Estate Fund experienced a challenging second quarter in 2024, with the Fund's Class I Shares declining by 3.97%. This performance lagged behind its primary benchmark, the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Index, which fell by 2.97% 1. The underperformance was primarily attributed to stock selection in the industrial and retail sectors, as well as an underweight position in data centers.
The Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Growth Managed Account strategy delivered a positive return of 3.36% for the quarter, outperforming its blended benchmark by 0.21% 2. The strategy benefited from strong performance in global equities, particularly in the technology and communication services sectors. However, fixed income investments faced challenges due to rising interest rates.
The Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Aggressive Growth Managed Account strategy posted a robust return of 4.51% for the quarter, surpassing its blended benchmark by 0.30% 3. The strategy's success was driven by its higher allocation to equities, which performed well during the period. Notable contributions came from U.S. large-cap growth stocks and emerging market equities.
The Janus Henderson Global Equity Income Fund's Class I Shares returned 1.91% during the quarter, underperforming its benchmark, the MSCI World Index, which returned 3.21% 4. The Fund's underperformance was primarily due to its defensive positioning and underweight in the technology sector, which saw significant gains during the period.
The Janus Henderson Global Multi-Asset Moderate Managed Account strategy achieved a return of 2.21% for the quarter, slightly underperforming its blended benchmark by 0.11% 5. The strategy's balanced approach between equities and fixed income helped mitigate volatility, but the underperformance in fixed income investments due to rising interest rates impacted overall returns.
Across all strategies, fund managers expressed cautious optimism about the global economic outlook. They noted that while inflation concerns persist, there are signs of moderation in some regions. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions continue to be a key focus for investors.
In response to the current market conditions, several adjustments were made across the funds:
As global markets navigate through economic uncertainties, Janus Henderson fund managers remain committed to their respective investment philosophies while adapting to changing market dynamics. They emphasize the importance of diversification and active management in navigating the complex global investment landscape.
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Various investment funds report their Q2 2024 performance, showcasing diverse outcomes across small-cap, growth, and value strategies. The market landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for fund managers.
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An in-depth look at the Q2 2024 performance of various BNY Mellon funds, including Global Stock, Global Real Return, Appreciation, Dynamic Total Return, and Equity Income. The analysis covers market trends, fund strategies, and key factors influencing their performance.
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An in-depth look at the Q2 2024 performance of various Pioneer funds, including Mid-Cap Value, Global Sustainable Equity, Disciplined Value, Balanced ESG, and International Equity. The report analyzes market trends, fund strategies, and their impacts on investor returns.
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Janus Henderson's Q2 2024 commentaries on US Real Estate ETF and Managed Account highlight the current challenges and potential opportunities in the real estate market, emphasizing the impact of high interest rates and economic uncertainties.
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Janus Henderson's Short Duration Income ETF and Short Duration Flexible Bond Fund release Q2 2024 commentaries, highlighting performance, market conditions, and future strategies.
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