Nvidia's Subdued Forecast Dampens AI Enthusiasm in Tech Stocks

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On Thu, 29 Aug, 12:08 AM UTC

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Nvidia's lower-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter has led to a cooling of AI-driven enthusiasm in the tech sector, impacting stock prices of major tech companies and chip manufacturers.

Nvidia's Forecast Falls Short of Expectations

Nvidia Corp, a leading player in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, has released a revenue forecast for the current quarter that fell short of Wall Street's high expectations. The company projected first-quarter revenue of $24 billion, plus or minus 2%, which was below analysts' average estimate of $24.25 billion 1. This announcement has sent ripples through the tech sector, dampening the AI-driven enthusiasm that had been propelling stock prices.

Impact on Nvidia's Stock and Market Valuation

Despite the lower-than-expected forecast, Nvidia's shares initially rose 3% in after-hours trading, following a 2.5% gain during the regular session 2. However, the stock later pared gains and was last down 1%. It's worth noting that Nvidia's market capitalization has surged to nearly $1.73 trillion, making it the third most valuable U.S. company 3.

Broader Impact on Tech and Chip Stocks

The subdued forecast from Nvidia has had a cascading effect on other tech and chip stocks. Shares of AI-adjacent companies such as Super Micro Computer and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell 5% and 3% respectively in after-hours trading 4. Other major tech players like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com also experienced slight dips in their stock prices.

Factors Contributing to the Forecast

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, attributed the company's performance to strong demand for its chips used in AI computing. However, the company faces challenges in expanding sales in China due to U.S. export curbs. Nvidia has been developing export-compliant chips for the Chinese market, but these products have not yet significantly contributed to revenue 5.

Analyst Perspectives

Despite the initial market reaction, some analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. Hans Mosesmann of Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia continues to be supply-constrained in AI, indicating ongoing strong demand for its products. The company's data center revenue, which includes sales of AI chips, more than tripled to $18.4 billion in the fourth quarter 1.

Future Outlook

While Nvidia's forecast has temporarily cooled AI enthusiasm in the stock market, the underlying demand for AI technologies remains strong. The company's performance in the coming quarters will be closely watched as an indicator of the broader AI market's health and its impact on the tech sector's valuation.

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