Tech Leaders Predict Surge in Software Engineering Jobs Despite AI Advancements

We Will Need 10x More Software Engineers in 5 Years | AIM Media House

The future will be about one engineer managing a bunch of AI coding agents. AI has sparked anxiety within the software engineering community. We are nearing a world where most of the coding is done in natural language, with tools like Replit, Cursor, Windsurf, and Lovable essentially making software in a matter of minutes. The tech leaders are also not helping the cause, with their extensive debates on whether we would even need software engineers in the future. Thankfully, not all opinions are gloomy, offering the developers a little hope and relief. Todd McKinnon, CEO of Okta, is one of the recent voices pushing back against the doomsday narrative. In an interview with Business Insider, McKinnon called the fear of declining engineering jobs "laughable". He compared the rise of AI to past tech shifts like personal computing and mobile, which ultimately expanded job opportunities rather than eliminating them. "In five years, there will be more software engineers than there are now," McKinnon said, and these engineers would be building things on top of the current solutions. He also added that companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Salesforce will hire more software engineers in the near future. Obviously, not everyone agrees with this sentiment. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, speaking on Stratechery with Ben Thompson, said, "Each software engineer will just do much, much more for a while...And then at some point, maybe we will need fewer software engineers." While he acknowledged that "agentic coding" -- AI autonomously handling complex software tasks -- is on the rise, he cautioned against assuming this spells the end for engineers. Altman noted that some companies are already generating over half their code through AI. However, he emphasised that human oversight remains crucial. Alarm bells really went off when Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that in less than six months, AI would handle 90% of coding. This is similar to what Sridhar Vembu, founder of Zoho, thinks. He recently said that 90% of what programmers write today is 'boilerplate'. But coding is just one part of the software engineering cycle. As AI grows more powerful, the engineers behind it are becoming even more valuable. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has long advocated for a broader view of software engineering. Rather than focusing solely on the tech sector, Nadella pointed to LinkedIn data that shows robust demand for engineers across healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and education. Google CEO Sundar Pichai sees the role of software engineers evolving rapidly in the face of AI. In an earlier podcast of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations, he said Google continues to prioritise "superstar engineers" -- those who thrive in fast-changing environments and possess mastery in fields like AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity. Despite hiring slowdowns, Pichai revealed that Google maintains a 90% offer acceptance rate for engineering hires. His point: demand hasn't dropped, it's just shifted. Engineers now need to be more versatile, more interdisciplinary, and more comfortable working with AI-powered toolchains. For Google, innovation isn't possible without human talent at the helm. It remains clear that while the world is vibing to code, there is still no such thing as vibe engineering. A recent blog by Sergey Tselovalnikov highlighted that while vibe coding can accelerate prototyping, it doesn't replace software engineering. Real engineering involves long-term system design, reliability, scalability, and maintainability -- concerns that current AI-generated code cannot handle. So, despite the hype, there's no such thing as "vibe engineering"; it's still just engineering, with or without the code typing. Last year, the debate around AI replacing jobs was in full swing, just like today. That is when François Chollet, creator of Keras, made a prediction: "There will be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python, C or JavaScript code) in five years than there are today." He added that the estimated number of professional software engineers today is 26 million, which would jump to 30-35 million in five years. Being a developer or coder is not just about writing code but about engineering and thinking of higher-order things, which is where the future value of software engineering lies. "Code is largely worthless, more of a liability than an asset. Problem-solving is where the value is," Chollet added in the thread. "If you could fully automate software engineering (my job), I think that would be great, since I could then move on to higher-leverage things. Making software is a means to an end, not the end." In its October 2024 report, Gartner said that GenAI will spawn new roles in software engineering and operations through 2027, requiring 80% of the engineering workforce to upskill. It remains true that software engineers have to upskill faster than anyone else. Especially in India, where most IT firms and engineers are not learning to code but merely providing services, AI could be their biggest threat. If models can write code, test it, and check for self-consistency, a form of automatic supervision that is not possible in most domains due to the limits of human expertise will be ushered in. This capability would allow code to be tested empirically and automatically by AI agents. The future will be about one engineer managing a bunch of AI coding agents. As a result of this, software engineering will see a radical transformation and possibly an increase in demand. "There will be way more software engineers in the future than the present," Russell Kaplan from Cognition Labs earlier noted. But "the job will just be very different: more English, less boilerplate coding".

Some good news for techies. CEO boldly claims more software jobs coming in AI era: 'Just watch the data'

Despite growing fears that AI will replace software engineers, Okta CEO Todd McKinnon strongly rejects the idea, calling it "laughable." He believes the demand for engineers will increase as AI handles routine tasks, allowing humans to focus on complex system design. Industry voices like Sam Altman and Sridhar Vembu agree that AI will change the nature of coding but not eliminate the need for engineers. Despite growing concerns that AI will replace software engineers, several top tech leaders insist the opposite is more likely. Todd McKinnon, CEO of identity security firm Okta, is especially vocal in dismissing predictions of a shrinking software job market. Speaking to Business Insider, McKinnon said, "I just laugh every time I hear about it. This whole 'we're gonna have fewer software engineers,' it's laughable." McKinnon is confident that the job market for software engineers will expand, not shrink. "In five years, there will be more software engineers than there are now," he added, arguing that technological evolution, including AI, typically increases demand for engineering talent rather than reducing it. McKinnon explained that each major wave of innovation -- from the PC era to the rise of mobile -- resulted in more demand for engineers. According to him, AI will simply shift engineers into more strategic and complex roles. "They'll move up a level. They'll spend more of their time thinking about, you know, broader systems design and how the systems interact," he noted. He also compared today's AI developments to the introduction of compilers in the late 1970s. "You could have said, 'Todd, there are going to be no more software engineers, because compilers write 100% of the code,'" McKinnon said. Yet the profession evolved then, and he believes it will again. McKinnon stressed that the push for automation and productivity tools only expands the need for software development. "There's infinite demand for automation," he said. He also questioned claims from companies like Salesforce, which stated they would not be hiring engineers this year. "Just watch the data," McKinnon said, predicting these same firms will hire more engineers soon. Not everyone shares McKinnon's optimism, though not all are fully pessimistic either. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told Stratechery that "each software engineer will just do much, much more for a while... And then at some point, maybe we will need fewer software engineers." He highlighted the rise of "agentic coding" -- AI systems handling complex tasks independently -- but emphasized that human involvement remains essential. Sridhar Vembu, CEO of Zoho, also noted the rise of AI in programming, saying "90% of what programmers write today is boilerplate." Yet he too believes that coding is just one part of a broader engineering cycle, and that engineers remain critical for long-term thinking and system design. Even amid reports of hiring slowdowns -- with Indeed showing a 33% drop in job listings over five years -- the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 17% growth in software developer jobs from 2023 to 2033. That's over 327,000 new roles, with a median annual salary of $130,160 as of 2023. Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella both support a more nuanced view. Pichai said the company still seeks "superstar engineers" skilled in areas like AI and cybersecurity, Pichai emphasized in The David Rubenstein Show that Google continues to value "superstar engineers" skilled in emerging fields like AI and cybersecurity. He mentioned that the company still has a 90% offer acceptance rate for engineering hires, despite generating over a quarter of its code through AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella also supported this view, citing strong hiring trends across non-tech industries. LinkedIn data shows increasing demand for software engineers in sectors such as finance, healthcare, education, and manufacturing.