Trump's Taiwan Comments and Biden's Trade Plans Shake Semiconductor and AI Markets

Trump Says, 'Taiwan Should Pay Us for Defense,' Triggering TSMC Shares to Fall; Bitcoin Hits $66K as ETFs Absorb $423M in Inflows - Top Headlines Today While US Slept

Crypto Sam Altman's AI-Themed 'Ethereum Killer' Worldcoin Surges 40%: What's Going On? Bitcoin Tags $66K, ETFs Slurp Another $423M In Inflows: How High Can BTC Go? By Dumping 50K Seized Bitcoins At The Wrong Time, Germany Lost An Amount Worth More Than Bhutan's And Gambia's GDPs Today Why Are GameStop And Kitty-Themed Memecoins Trading Higher Today? Read On Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Retain Gains: Popular Analyst Predicts King Crypto Could Hit A New All-Time High If It Breaks This Price Target US Politics Elon Musk Highlights Top Silicon Valley Investors Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz Discussing Their Support For Trump: 'We Literally Believe The Future Of Our Business...Is At Stake' As 'Billionaire Boys' Go All In For Trump, Anthony Scaramucci Has Word Of Caution: 'Tonic They Are Prescribing Will Be Bad For America And The World' Trump's Second Term Could Trigger Global Inflation, Warn Analysts: '2024, 2025 Is Going To Be Very Different' Democratic Senator Who Called Bitcoin An Ideal Choice For Criminals Found Guilty Of Accepting Bribes In Gold, Cash And Luxury Car Bernie Sanders Slams Elon Musk's Reported $45M Donations To Trump Campaign: 'We Need A Government That Represents All, Not Just Billionaires' Donald Trump Plans Launch Of Fourth NFT Collection: 'I'm Going To Do Another One Because The People Want Me To Do Another One' Trump Told Robert Kennedy Jr Over The Phone That The Bullet Felt Like 'The World's Largest Mosquito' US Markets Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Plunge After Trump's Comments And ASML's Weak Forecast Deepens Tech Sell-Off: AI Narrative May Be Priced In, Says Analyst Dow Jones Closes At Record High As Traders Turn Bullish Amid Hopes Of Fed Cutting Rates In September World Politics Kim Jong Un's 'Cuba Expert' Fled North Korean Regime, Ends Up In South Korea Trump Says, 'Taiwan Should Pay Us For Defense' -- Ex-President's Remark Triggers Fall In TSMC Shares US Economy Jerome Powell's Top Advisor Hints At Fed's Potential Rate Cut Plans: 'All Moving In The Right Direction' Tech Why Key Apple, Nvidia Supplier TSMC's Shares Are Plunging In Wednesday's Premarket BlackBerry Launches AI-Powered CylanceMDR Pro Cybersecurity For Businesses: Details EXCLUSIVE: Guardforce AI Secures New Contracts with Top Retail Brands, Boosts Operations As Nvidia, Microsoft, And Google Lead AI Boom, Taiwan's Chief Telecom President Calls For 'Entirely New' Data Center Infrastructure What's Going On With Alibaba And Peer Chinese Stocks On Wednesday? ASML Beats Q2 Earnings Expectations With Strong China Sales, AI Chip Demand Electric Vehicle What's Going On With Chinese EV Maker Li Auto Shares Today? Tesla Introduces New Accessories For Cybertruck: $300 Tailgate Shield And $100 Jumpseats Tesla Files Trademark Applications For Cyberberry And Supercharged Gummies, Years After CEO Elon Musk Teased Making His Own Candy Company Cybertruck Curiosity Grips Tesla Shareholders As Elon Musk-Led EV Giant Starts Taking Questions For Upcoming Earnings Call Tesla Stock Could Shoot Up 10 Times Due To Robotaxis, Says Cathie Wood: 'The Biggest AI Project Evolving Today' Consumer Honda Motor Prices Secondary Shares At Discount In $3.16B Sale Communication Reddit (RDDT) Vs. Trump's DJT: How 2 High-Profile Social Media Stocks Have Fared Since March Listings Industrial Why J.B. Hunt Transport Services Shares Are Falling Today Boeing Delivers Critical Core Stage for NASA's Lunar Mission: Details Healthcare Johnson & Johnson's Q2 Earnings: Revenue And Profit Beat On Strong Pharma Sales, Annual Profit Outlook Lowered On M&A Costs Roche Highlights Encouraging Data From Newly-Acquired Second Weight Loss Drug Candidate In Early-Stage Study Financial EXCLUSIVE: La Rosa Reports 15% Growth in Q2 Transaction Volume Homes Are Shrinking Fast, With Hallways Being The First To Go Energy TC Energy Faces Setback In Pursuit Of NAFTA Damages: Details Why Bloom Energy Group Shares Are Trading Higher By 12%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket What's Going On With Exxon Mobil Shares Today? Photo by Jack Hong via Shutterstock Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

Trump Trade May Reverse As Probability Of Biden Backing Out Increases - Watch AI Semiconductors - Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM)

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Watch Trump Trade Please click here for an enlarged chart of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. TSM. Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSM stock is being used to illustrate the point. TSM is important because it is the largest semiconductor foundry in the world. More importantly, TSM manufactures nearly all of the advanced AI chips. NVIDIA Corp NVDA GPUs are manufactured by TSM. The chart shows that the Trump trade caused the upward sloping trendline to be broken. The chart shows a gap down on Trump's comments about Taiwan and China. The chart shows that volume was high as the stock fell on Trump's comments. This indicates that the Trump trade has conviction. The chart shows that TSM is attempting a bounce after reporting excellent earnings. TSM reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers. Here are the details: Over 50% of revenues are coming from AI and advanced chips. Q2 earnings came at $1.48 vs. $1.41 consensus. Revenues grew 34.6% year-over-year. Revenues came at $20.82B vs. $20.33B consensus. The company guides Q3 revenue of $22.4B - $23.2B vs. $22.64B consensus. The company guides gross margin in the range of 53.5% - 55.5%. The company guides operating margin between 42.5% - 44.5%. RSI on the chart shows that it is not yet oversold. This indicates that it is too early to step in to buy, even for those who are oblivious to the China risk. One result of the Trump trade gaining popularity is that yesterday was the worst day for semiconductors since the fall in semiconductors in March 2020 due to COVID. The Trump trade is not all negative. As we have previously shared with you, the Trump trade is driving money into small caps and bank stocks. Of note are extremely positive money flows in iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE. As full disclosure, IWM and KBE are in The Arora Report's ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job is to help investors extract the maximum amount of money with the lowest possible risk from the markets. The Arora Report shared with you early on that Trump becoming the next president had become the highest probability scenario. In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of Biden backing out and Democrats picking a new candidate has risen overnight. The take home message for investors is that if Biden backs out, the popular Trump trade may reverse. In The Arora Report analysis, to gauge early signs of the Trump trade reversing, investors should watch AI semiconductors such as NVDA, ASML Holding NV ASML, Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT, Micron Technology Inc MU, Arm Holdings PLC - ADR ARM, Broadcom Inc AVGO and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD as well as small caps. It is important to separate your politics from your investments. The election is a significant event ahead that can make a major difference to your portfolio. Initial jobless claims came at 243K vs. 225K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is beginning to weaken. Right now, investors like more people getting laid off because to investors it means a higher probability of a Fed rate cut. In The Arora Report analysis, right now, investors are oblivious that a weakening jobs picture also means that earnings may not be as good in the upcoming quarters as investors anticipate. Europe European Central Bank (ECB) is leaving rates unchanged as expected. Lagarde is saying that there is no pre-commitment to any one rate path. In The Arora Report analysis, investors should focus on the September rate decision. Magnificent Seven Money Flows In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc META, Microsoft Corp MSFT, NVIDIA Corp NVDA, and Tesla Inc TSLA In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ. Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLD. The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV. The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO. Bitcoin Bitcoin BTC/USD continues to see buying as part of the Trump trade. Protection Band And What To Do Now It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time. You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges. A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling. It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market. Traditional 60/40 Portfolio Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time. Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time. The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter. This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue Inflow Streak; Trump's Taiwan Comments And Biden's Trade Plans Trigger Semiconductor Selloff - Top Headlines Today While US Slept

Crypto 'Dogecoin Killer' Shiba Inu Burn Rate Up 875% But Price Down 10%: What Is Going On? WazirX Suffers $230M Hack, Suspends Withdrawals Amid Security Breach Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue Inflow Streak...But What's Up With This Technical Indicator? As Stablecoin Inflows Surge To All-Time Highs, Here's What It Could Mean For Bitcoin And Crypto Market Analysts Question Strategy Behind High Fees Of Grayscale Ethereum Spot ETF: They Seem Focused On 'Maximizing Short-Term Revenue Vs Playing Long Game' Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Decline Amid Tech Stock Bloodbath: Analyst Says King Crypto 'Not Quite Ready Just Yet' For This Price Level Odds of Biden Dropping Out Of Race Surge To 66% -- Pollster Nate Silver Joins Crypto-Based Prediction Market Polymarket US Politics Trump Rally Security: Secret Service Was Informed Of Police Inability To Watch Sniper Location Biden Gets COVID-19, Takes A Fiesty Dig At Tesla CEO: 'I'm Sick ...Of Elon Musk And His Rich Buddies Trying To Buy This Election' US Markets Leslie's Issues Preliminary Financial Results, Joins Beyond Meat, Domino's And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Thursday's Pre-Market Session Wall Street Gearing Up For Tech-Led Rebound Ahead Of Netflix Earnings: Economist Expects Soft Landing But Says Brace For Bigger Fed Rate Cuts If This Happens Nasdaq Sees Worst Session Since 2022 As Chip Stocks Tumble After Trump's Taiwan Remarks and Biden's Potential Restrictions World Politics China Halts Nuclear Talks With US Over Taiwan Arms Sales After Reportedly Sanctioning Lockheed Martin Executives In June Trump's Taiwan Talk, Biden's Trade Restriction Plans Trigger Nvidia, AMD And Other Semiconductor Selloff: 'I'm Having Flashbacks,' Says Analyst Xi Jinping's China Is Putting World's Most Stringent Regulations On AI -- Tech Giants Alibaba, ByteDance Test Tech For Compliance With Socialist Values US Economy September May Bring Rate Cut, Says Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: 'I Think There's A Good Chance...' Tech Palantir Stock Up Over 60% This Year, But Analyst Says The Story Remains 'Very Undervalued And Misunderstood By The Street' Infosys Reports Strong Q1 Earnings, Records Highest Free Cash Flow Ever Apple Denies Using YouTube Videos To Train Its AI Features After Report Claims Tim Cook's Company Used Creators' Content Without Consent Nokia's Q2 Earnings: Record-Low Revenue As 5G Investment Slows, Annual Outlook Cut, Stock Slides Apple, Nvidia Supplier TSMC Stock Rises In Thursday's Premarket After Crashing 8% In Last Session: What's Driving The Rebound? Figma Bags New Investment At $12.5B Valuation, Nearly 40% Lower Than The Terminated $20B Adobe Deal Apple, Nvidia Supplier TSMC Reports Strong Q2 Results Amid Booming Demand For AI Chips, Guides Q3 Above Consensus: 2024 To Be 'Strong Growth Year,' Says CEO Microsoft Outpaces Apple, Introduces 'Designer' AI Image Generation Tool For The iPhone Electric Vehicle What's Going On With NIO Shares Thursday? Tesla, Ford Lose Market Share In EU Even As Overall Car Registrations Rise: Toyota And Other Japanese Players Gain Trump-Vance Administration Will Be 'Terrible' For Tesla, Says Bear: Elon Musk 'Has Completely Alienated Most Of His Buying Base' Tesla Executive Assures Cybertruck Light Bar Coming 'Soon' For Foundation Series Cyberbeast Customers Consumer Domino's Pizza Suspends 1,100+ Global Net Store Outlook After Q2 Earnings, Stock Tumbles Hyatt Eyes Standard International To Expand Luxury Portfolio: Report Why Chuy's Holdings Shares Are Trading Higher By 47%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket What's Going On With Ford Motor Stock Premarket Thursday? Industrial Alaska Airlines Reports Mixed Q2 Results And Cautious Q3 Outlook, Enhances Premium Services Boeing Workers Vote For Strike Mandate Why Electric Aircraft Manufacturer Lilium Shares Are Surging Premarket Thursday C-130J Takes on New Role: Lockheed Martin Delivers Aerial Spray Aircraft Healthcare EXCLUSIVE: Haystack Oncology Inks Research Collaboration With Lisata Therapeutics To Use Haystack MRD Technology To Evaluate Pancreatic Cancer Therapy Efficacy Abbott Gears Up For Q2 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts General Chewy Founder, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen Posts 'TRUMP' 665 Times On Elon Musk's X: Cryptic Message Has Internet Guessing Space SpaceX Unveils ISS Deorbit Vehicle Design Resembling Dragon Spacecraft With '6X More Propellant And 4X Power Elon Musk's SpaceX Announces Starlink Now Connects 400K Canadians Or 3% Homes In The Country Energy Fortescue Delays Green Hydrogen Ambitions, Reaffirms Commitment To Future Projects Image: Tamim Tarin from Pixabay Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

Prudent Investors Watching Risk To AI Stocks Like NVIDIA And AMD - Momo Monster Buying On Trump 2.0 - ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML)

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Risk To AI Stocks Please click here for an enlarged chart of ASML Holding NV ASML. Note the following: This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of ASML is being used to illustrate the point. ASML is a Dutch company that provides extreme ultra lithography equipment needed to manufacture advanced semiconductors. ASML has a near monopoly on making the most advanced machines. The chart shows that ASML stock has run up on AI exuberance. The chart shows that ASML stock is falling after the earnings report. The chart shows that there is a high probability of the gap being closed. If the gap is closed, the support zone shown on the chart will come into play. In The Arora Report analysis, ASML earnings were better than the consensus and whisper numbers. In our analysis, the stock is falling due to the Biden administration considering the most severe restrictions on the export of chip making equipment to China. Semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA Corp NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. TSM, Micron Technology Inc MU, Arm Holdings PLC - ADR ARM, and Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT are falling on the potential China risk. Of interest is a report that Microsoft Corp MSFT and Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG are helping Chinese companies get Nvidia chips in spite of U.S. sanctions. Trump's rhetoric is fueling more concerns among prudent investors about semiconductor stocks. Trump appears to be questioning Biden's commitment to fully defend Taiwan. As prudent investors are carefully watching the risks, the momo crowd is oblivious and engaged in monster buying on the belief that Trump will be the next president. The Arora Report was early in sharing with you our analysis that the highest probability scenario was Trump becoming the next president. Prudent investors need to remember that high probability does not equate to a 100% guarantee. Things can change very quickly in politics. Only two months ago, Trump was facing massive legal problems, potential jail time, and a divided Republican party. In a short time, due to Biden's debate performance, the Supreme Court granting Trump immunity, and the assassination attempt on Trump, talk shifted from a close election to a Republican sweep. At The Arora Report we are making shifts in our portfolios to prepare for Trump 2.0. We are also mindful that the present euphoria about a Republican sweep is not guaranteed to come to fruition. In a historic move, for the first time since 1971, a major index closed 4.4 standard deviations above the 50 day moving average. The index is the Russell 2000. As full disclosure, Russell 2000 is represented by ETF iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, which is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. In sympathy, another ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio position Royce Micro-Cap Trust Inc RMT, representing micro caps, has broken out. Money flows are very positive in stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), home builders, and banks, such as Bank of America Corp BAC and JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM. Trump appears to be warning Powell against cutting interest rates before the election. The Fed's Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET. The Fed's Thomas Barkin and Christopher Wallis will be speaking today. As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report. Housing Starts Housing starts came at 1.353M vs. 1.310M consensus. Building permits came at 1.446M vs. 1.391M consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, the strength is in multi-family housing and not in single family housing. Japan Japan appears to have intervened to support the yen. As full disclosure, there is a position in yen in ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. Magnificent Seven Money Flows In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc META, Tesla Inc TSLA, and Apple Inc AAPL. In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ. Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLD. The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV. The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO. Bitcoin Bitcoin BTC/USD continues to see buying on enthusiasm about Trump. Protection Band And What To Do Now It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time. You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges. A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling. It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market. Traditional 60/40 Portfolio Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time. Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time. This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs