Unity Software gets stock upgrade as Oppenheimer sees AI integration driving growth, not threat

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Oppenheimer upgraded Unity Software to Outperform with a $38 price target, dismissing fears that AI world models like Google's Project Genie will displace game engines. The analyst sees AI integration as a catalyst that will lower barriers to entry and boost productivity, with EBITDA margins projected to expand to 26% by 2026.

Unity Software Receives Stock Upgrade Amid AI Integration Strategy

Unity Software shares surged 5% Tuesday morning after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform from Perform and assigned a $38 price target

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. The move comes as Unity Software has faced significant pressure in 2025, with shares down 38% since the start of the year amid broader concerns about AI disrupting traditional software businesses. Trading at $27.53 before the upgrade announcement, the stock had been navigating turbulent waters as investors questioned whether emerging AI technologies would render established game development platforms obsolete.

Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

Oppenheimer Dismisses World Models as Threat to Game Engines

Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang directly challenged the notion that world models like Google's Project Genie will displace game engines such as Unity's platform. Yang described these fears as "fundamentally misplaced," arguing they ignore Unity's distinct architectural role in development

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. "Current world models generate pixel-based predictions, lacking the deterministic logic, and interactivity required for game development," Yang explained. Rather than viewing these emerging technologies as existential threats, the analyst positioned world models as asset-generation tools that will feed into the Unity engine rather than replace it. This perspective reframes the competitive landscape, suggesting that Unity will serve as a primary platform for AI deployment rather than being displaced by it

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AI as a Key Catalyst for Enhanced Productivity

The firm believes AI integration will act as a catalyst rather than a threat to Unity's business model. Yang highlighted how Unity is leveraging AI to enhance its capabilities, particularly through its engine where coding assistants are lowering barriers to entry and boosting productivity

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. This integration is anticipated to accelerate content creation, benefiting Unity's Grow segment extensively. The recent introduction of the Waymo World Model, built on Genie 3, exemplifies how AI is being used as a complementary technology rather than a replacement. Yang noted that AI integration could potentially expand Unity's user base by democratizing development for non-coders, opening new market opportunities beyond traditional game developers

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Strong Fundamentals and Expanding EBITDA Margins

Oppenheimer pointed to Unity's improving fundamentals as a key driver behind the stock upgrade. Yang specifically highlighted the successful re-acceleration of the company's Grow segment and disciplined cost management practices

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. The analyst projects adjusted EBITDA margins to expand toward 26% by 2026, up from 22% in 2025

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. Unity's focus on refining its product offerings and maintaining cost discipline is projected to bolster its financial metrics significantly. The $38 price target implies 24 times Oppenheimer's 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $695 million, with the firm applying multiples in line with Unity's SaaS peers

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Strategic Positioning for AI Deployment in Game Development Platforms

Unity's strategic shift towards high-margin cross-platform commerce solutions could provide additional financial uplift, indicating potential for even greater returns than currently forecasted

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. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from foundation models, with AI deployment expected to enhance rather than diminish its core value proposition. While the stock currently trades 21.1% below its 20-day simple moving average and 28.5% below its 100-day SMA, indicating short-term technical challenges, shares have increased 42.13% over the past 12 months

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. The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $41.45 across analysts, with recent actions including Freedom Capital Markets initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $52 price target, and Goldman Sachs maintaining Neutral while raising its target to $47

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