AI Tool Breakthrough: Predicting Massive Rogue Waves Now Possible

Chaotic, terrifying rogue waves haunt the ocean. Scientists have a plan to help.

A massive rogue wave in Ventura, California, led to flooding that injured eight people. Monstrous and deadly waves that arrive without warning have been recounted in fishing and sailing lore for more than a century. These so-called "rogue" or "freak" waves have been seen from cruise ships, cargo vessels, oil platforms and beaches. A possible rogue wave captured the world's attention in 2022 after it broke windows on a cruise ship off the coast of Argentina, killing a woman and injuring four others. Rogue waves remain a serious danger to ships, offshore infrastructure, and other maritime equipment. Unfortunately, reliable forecasts have been unheard of - until now. Now, for the first time, in a new study released Thursday, researchers say they've invented a artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can give up to five minutes warning that a rogue wave is approaching. While this may not seem like much time, study authors suggest the tool could be used to issue advance warnings to ships and offshore platforms to allow those working on them to seek shelter, perform emergency shutdowns, or maneuver to minimize the impacts of approaching rogue waves. What is a rogue wave? Rogue waves are simply unusually large waves that appear within in a set of smaller waves, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A rogue wave is defined as a wave that's 2.2 times higher than the waves around it, said Johannes Gemmrich, a physical oceanographer at the University of Victoria in British Columbia. The waves are measured relative to "significant wave height," determined by averaging the highest one-third of waves. Driven by the wind, rogue waves form when waves coming from multiple directions meet at one point by chance, said Francesco Fedele, an associate professor at Georgia Tech. The waves are tough to track, but some 432 incidents have been documented internationally between 2005 and 2021 in a catalog kept on the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Applied Physics website. More: A rogue wave caused a cruise ship tragedy. They occur more often than you think. How does this new tool work? The new AI tool developed by engineers Thomas Breunung and Balakumar Balachandran of the University of Maryland is fed by a network of sensors on dozens of buoys along U.S. coastlines that have been trained to identify ocean waves that will be followed by rogue waves. The tool was able to correctly predict the emergence of 75% of rogue waves one minute into the future and 73% of rogue waves five minutes into the future. "With this approach, we could predict three out of four rogue waves," Breunung told NPR. "I was surprised." The tool is still in its developmental stages, and isn't ready for commercial use yet. The authors suggest that the accuracy and advance warning time of their tool's forecasts could be improved by incorporating water depth, wind speed and wave location data. Future research could also help predict the heights of upcoming rogue waves or the times at which they may emerge. The study was published in the peer-reviewed British journal Scientific Reports.

5 mins to save lives: AI tool predicts killer rogue waves in advance

Moreover, the researchers tested the tool on two completely new buoys that were not included in the training data. And, guess what? It still managed to predict rogue waves with high accuracy. This suggests that the tool will be able to predict them even in whole new oceanic areas. This vital warning time could allow sailors to take evasive action, minimize damage, and save lives. "The authors suggest that the tool could be used to issue advance warnings to ships and offshore platforms to enable those working on them to seek shelter, perform emergency shutdowns, or manoeuvre to minimise the impacts of approaching rogue waves," the press release mentioned. Up next, the team aims to further improve their tools. By adding data like water depth, wind speed, and wave location, the accuracy and warning time could be significantly improved. More enhancement of the model might even allow for predicting the height and exact timing of rogue waves. They have detailed this new tool in the journal Scientific Reports. Rogue wave research is increasing to protect sailors' lives. Last year, researchers at the University of Copenhagen employed artificial intelligence to create a mathematical equation for predicting them in the ocean.