AMD revenue forecast disappoints investors despite strong AI chips sales and China boost

AMD Outlook Disappoints Investors Seeking Bigger AI Payoff

AMD's shares fell more than 5% in late trading after the results were released, despite the company's fourth-quarter sales rising 34% to $10.3 billion and beating average estimates. Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the main challenger to Nvidia Corp. in the market for artificial intelligence processors, gave a disappointing forecast for the current period, a sign it's not making the kind of AI inroads that some investors anticipated. First-quarter sales will be roughly $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, the company said in a statementBloomberg Terminal Tuesday. Analysts had estimated $9.39 billion on average, but some projections topped $10 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In a mixed blessing, AMD said that it has begun selling one of its older chips to China. That added to sales -- and suggested that the company is navigating trade restrictions -- but weighed on profit margins. The outlook let down investors who had hoped to see a bigger payoff from AI computing spending. AMD is still playing catch-up with Nvidia in this lucrative market, but the chipmaker has said that a new more powerful design -- due in the second half of the year -- will give it an advantage. The shares fell more than 5% in late trading after the results were released. They had been up 13% this year through Tuesday's close. Fourth-quarter sales rose 34% to $10.3 billion, beating a $9.7 billion average estimate. Profit was $1.53 a share, minus certain items. Analysts projected $1.32 on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. AMD's data center business, the main beneficiary of AI spending, rose 39% to $5.38 billion in the period. Analysts had predicted $4.97 billion on average. Personal computer-related sales rose 34% to $3.1 billion. The average prediction was $2.89 billion. Like Nvidia, AMD is contending with US restrictions on what it can export to China -- the world's biggest market for chips. President Donald Trump recently moved to relax the curbs, but it's taken time to get the needed licenses from the Department of Commerce. The company generated $390 million of revenue last quarter from shipping older-generation MI308 chips to Chinese customers. It expects about $100 million of such sales in the current period. More broadly, AMD expects giant deals with OpenAI and Oracle Corp. -- as well as overall demand for AI gear -- to generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue. Analysts and investors have pressed executives for more precise projections on when that will happen. AMD's recent agreements with OpenAI, Oracle and the US Department of Energy reflect increased interest in its MI series of AI accelerators. Those products, which go head to head with chips from Nvidia, are used in data centers to create and run AI services. AMD is also one of the largest providers of graphics chips and central processing units used in PCs and servers. Intel, AMD's chief rival in that field, gave a disappointing forecast last month, saying it couldn't get enough supply to meet strong demand. Wall Street took that as an indication that AMD was continuing to win market share.

AMD forecasts sequential revenue decline, shares fall

Feb 3 (Reuters) - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab on Tuesday forecast a slight decline in first-quarter revenue despite an unexpected boost from sales of its AI chips to China, raising doubt about whether it has the supply-chain clout to challenge Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab in the booming AI market. Excluding the surprise AI chip sales to China, the company's data-center segment would have missed estimates at a time when longtime rival Nvidia has accustomed investors to blowout forecasts. AMD posted sales and profit for its just-ended fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimates, but some investors may have asked for more. "The expectations for large blowout quarters for AI-related hardware companies have skewed what the market is looking for," said Bob O'Donnell, president of TECHnalysis Research. Shares fell 7% in extended trading. The company expects revenue of about $9.8 billion for the first quarter, plus or minus $300 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $9.39 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. AMD said about $100 million of those first quarter sales would come from its MI308 AI chips in China. The midpoint of the sales forecast represents year-over-year growth of approximately 32% and a sequential decline of approximately 5%, AMD said. And when stripping out China sales that Wall Street did not anticipate, the low end of the forecast range was $9.4 billion, just above analyst estimates. Tuesday's after-hours share fall could be attributed to AMD's expectations of a sequential sales drop, Creative Strategies Chief Executive Ben Bajarin said. Investors also tried to grapple with MI308 sales during the fourth quarter, which the company said were $390 million. AMD reported fourth-quarter sales of $10.27 billion, compared with estimates of $9.67 billion. Revenue in its key data-center segment grew 39% to $5.38 billion in the quarter, beating estimates of $5.07 billion. Excluding sales of the MI308, which is a data-center chip, the results would have been $9.88 billion in overall sales, but data-center revenue would have been $4.99 billion, below estimates. AMD executives had said in November that the company received licenses to sell modified versions of its MI300 series of AI chips in China, after the Trump administration placed further restrictions on exports of advanced chips to Beijing. The MI308 chip competes with Nvidia's H20 chip, both of which were legal to sell in China at the start of last year. Santa Clara, California-based AMD is seen as the closest contender to challenge the AI chip dominance of the world's most valuable firm, Nvidia, as Big Tech and governments across the globe double down on investing in AI hardware. AMD is also one of the leading providers of data-center central processing units, which are used alongside pricey graphics processors in servers. The rapid expansion of data-center capacity has boosted server CPU demand, benefiting AMD, which has been steadily eating away at rival Intel's (INTC.O), opens new tab share of the market. While Intel has been unable to fully address demand for server CPUs due to supply constraints for its in-house production, analysts expected AMD to face fewer such issues since it outsources the manufacturing of its chips to Taiwan's TSMC (2330.TW), opens new tab. The semiconductor industry is also grappling with a global shortage of memory chips. AI processors made by AMD and Nvidia are accompanied by expensive high-bandwidth memory (HBM), whose supply is tight as memory providers work to expand capacity. Memory supply constraints could hamper growth for the AI industry despite strong demand, HSBC analysts said ahead of earnings. An uptick in memory prices is also likely to hit end-market demand in the personal computer industry, a key segment for AMD, with researchers expecting higher PC prices to hurt sales. AMD has accelerated its AI product launches and is moving into selling full AI systems from just chips to better compete against Nvidia, which now provides "rack-scale" systems that combine GPUs, CPUs and networking gear. AMD also entered into a multi-year deal with OpenAI last year to supply AI chips to the company, which would bring in tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the startup the option to buy up to roughly 10% of the chipmaker. Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Tasim Zahid, Peter Henderson and Matthew Lewis Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

AMD's Lisa Su addresses guidance concerns, says demand still accelerating for advanced chips

AMD CEO Lisa Su: AI is accelerating at a pace that I would not have imagined Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su defended the company's lackluster forecast, telling CNBC on Wednesday that the chipmaker has seen a step up in demand over the last two to three months. Shares tanked 13% Wednesday. "What I would tell you from someone on the inside is AI is accelerating at a pace that I would not have imagined," she told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street," adding that demand continues to outstrip compute needs. Su said AMD's datacenter business has accelerated from the fourth to first quarter and demand for its central processing units is "going gangbusters" as businesses rapidly increase compute for AI enterprise work.

AMD beats on revenue, earnings as overall sales rise 34% driven by AI

Here's how the chipmaker did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the quarter ended Dec. : For the first quarter, AMD said it expects $9.8 billion in revenue, plus or minus $300 million, versus expectations of $9.38 billion. Net income climbed to $1.51 billion, or 92 cents per share, versus $482 million, or 29 cents per share in the year-ago period. AMD's overall revenue was up 34% on an annual basis. AMD is one of two makers of big graphics processors for artificial intelligence, although it only has a small portion of the market, which is currently dominated by Nvidia. The chipmaker has recently announced some big customers, including OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, and Oracle. AMD plans to ship a new integrated server-scale AI system called Helios later this year. Shares have more than doubled over the past year. Those sales are reported in the company's data center segment, which had $5.4 billion in sales in the quarter, up 39% on an annual basis. The company said growth was driven both by the company's central processors as well as its AI GPUs. AMD's client and gaming segment rose 37% year-over-year to $3.9 billion. The company said it was driven by demand for its Ryzen processors for laptops and PCs, which have gained market share versus Intel. The company's embedded segment grew slower, rising 3% on a year-over-year basis to $950 million. AMD has faced issues over whether it would be able to ship its AI chips to China because of U.S. export controls. The company on Tuesday said that it recorded $390 million in China sales of its Instinct MI308 chips during the fourth quarter.

AMD beats expectations but guidance fails to excite investors and stock falls - SiliconANGLE

AMD beats expectations but guidance fails to excite investors and stock falls Advanced Micro Devices Inc. easily beat Wall Street's expectations in its latest financial results, but although it offered a bullish forecast for the current quarter, it still disappointed some analysts who were expecting the chipmaker to show even stronger momentum. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings before certain costs such as stock compensation of $1.53 per share, while revenue for the period rose 34% from a year earlier to $10.27 billion. They were solid numbers, with analysts modeling earnings of just $1.32 per share on lower sales of $9.67 billion, and they meant AMD was able to boost its bottom line significantly. Its net income climbed to $1.51 billion at the end of the quarter, up from just $482 million in the year-ago quarter. AMD Chair and Chief Executive Lisa Su (pictured) told analysts that fiscal 2025 was a defining year for the company, during which it achieved record revenue and earnings thanks to broad-based demand for its AI platforms. She was referring to AMD's Instinct MI455X graphics processing units, which are a popular alternative to Nvidia Corp.'s GPUs for running artificial intelligence workloads. "We are entering 2026 with strong momentum across our business, led by accelerating adoption of our high-performance EPYC and Ryzen CPUs and the rapid scaling of our data center AI franchise," Su said. That momentum is expected to drive the company towards $9.8 billion in first-quarter revenue, plus or minus $300 million, ahead of the Street's consensus estimate of $9.38 billion. However, AMD's stock fell more than 8% after-hours in a sign that some analysts and investors were hoping for even stronger guidance than what the company provided. The company is dealing with inflated expectations at a time when its customers continue to ramp up spending on AI infrastructure. AMD is the world's second-biggest manufacturer of GPUs and is widely considered to be Nvidia's most significant rival, yet its share of the AI chip market remains dwarfed by that of its competitor. Its stock price had more than doubled in 2025 and is up 13% in the year to date, even after today's decline. The chipmaker has signed deals with a number of major customers recently, including the ChatGPT maker OpenAI Group PBC and the cloud infrastructure giant Oracle Corp. It's planning to ship a new integrated server-scale system called Helios, featuring dozens of MI455X chips, to customers later this year. On a conference call with analysts, Su said the company is holding "active discussions" with customers over yet more Helios sales. AMD's GPU sales are reported in its data center business unit, which generated $5.4 billion in revenue during the quarter, up 39% from a year earlier. Su said the sales increase was due to demand for both GPUs and the company's central processing units, which are also used in AI servers. "Hyperscalers are expanding their infrastructure to meet growing demand for cloud services in AI, while enterprises are modernizing their data centers to ensure they have the right compute required to enable new AI workflows," Su told analysts. AMD is also seeing big demand in its client and gaming segment, which sells chips for personal computers, video games consoles and other devices. Su said the unit delivered $3.9 billion in sales during the quarter, up 37% from a year ago, thanks to rising demand for the company's Ryzen processors for laptops and PCs. She added that the company continues to gain market share in PCs at the expense of Intel Corp. The company also has a smaller embedded business, which sells chips for sensors and industrial devices such as medical imaging systems, robots, cars and aircraft systems. It generated $950 million in sales in the quarter, up 3% from a year earlier. Like Nvidia, AMD has faced headaches in China, with export controls restricting its ability to ship some of its higher-end chips to that country. However, U.S. President Donald Trump recently eased export controls on some older types of chips, and AMD was able to record $390 million in China sales during the quarter. Su added that the company hopes to sell another $100 million worth of chips to Chinese customers in the current quarter.

AMD CEO Lisa Su says AI is 'accelerating at a pace that I would not have imagined'

TL;DR: AMD reported a record $10.3 billion revenue and 54% gross margin in Q4 2025, driven by strong AI demand for EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs. Despite beating estimates, AMD's cautious Q1 2026 forecast led to a 13% stock drop. CEO Lisa Su is now speaking to the media and investors, emphasizing the acceleration of AI growth and its upcoming Helios AI systems. AMD recently reported its Q4 2025 earnings, with record revenue of $10.3 billion and a gross margin of 54%. This was indicative of AMD's banner year for investors, driven by the AI boom and demand for AMD's EPYC processors and Instinct graphics cards. As part of its fourth-quarter and 2025 financial results, the company also forecast revenue of $9.8 billion for the first quarter of 2026, plus or minus $300 million. Although this is higher than the $9.38 billion estimate from Wall Street analysts, AMD's share price dropped 13% after its latest financial report. The reason for the drop, according to reports, is that AMD's forecast felt too conservative for a company in the middle of the AI gold rush. Even though this follows last year's announcement of key AI partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle, and AMD's planned rollout of its server-based Helios AI systems later this year, there's also a growing sense of caution about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. And with AMD's stock price falling, CEO Lisa Su made an appearance on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, presumably in an attempt to calm the uncertainty by saying, "What I would tell you from someone on the inside is AI is accelerating at a pace that I would not have imagined." And by confirming that demand continues to outpace supply and that so far this year, its CPU business is "going gangbusters." AMD isn't the only company to see its stock price tumble after a seemingly impressive quarterly revenue report. After Microsoft reported 39% growth in its lucrative Azure and cloud-based services, its share price dropped by around 10%, wiping off $357 billion from its market cap. For those of us on the outside, the stock market will remain elusive and volatile. As for AMD, it doesn't see any signs of AI slowing down. Lisa Su also told CNBC that the company's server-scale Helios AI systems, which will directly compete with NVIDIA, are on track to be an "inflection point" for the company.

AMD shares fall 13% as dour forecast shows tough competition in AI trade

Advanced Micro Devices shares sank 13% on Wednesday after the company's lackluster sales forecast deepened investor doubts about its ability to take on AI chip bellwether Nvidia. AMD ⁠predicted its revenue would fall slightly in the current quarter, even as a resumption of China sales gives an unexpected boost, showing its struggle to penetrate the booming market where Nvidia is aggressively defending its position. Growing use of custom AI chips by tech giants, and Google's deal to supply Anthropic with its advanced processors in a deal worth billions of dollars have also piled pressure on AMD. A new legal plug-in for Anthropic's Claude chatbot that can automate some routine tasks triggered a selloff in software stocks that extended into a second day on Tuesday, as investors worried about the future of the software industry. AMD forecast first-quarter revenue of about $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, slightly ahead of analysts' average estimate of $9.67 billion. But the forecast was still lower than the $10.27 billion the company reported in the fourth quarter. The disappointing outlook comes despite a boost from China-bound AI chip sales, approved under a U.S. license in early 2025, that generated $390 million. Without those sales, AMD's data center segment would have missed analysts' estimates in the fourth quarter. "In such an intense environment, overall results weren't all that much beyond 'inline' without the China boost," Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said, adding that near-term AI numbers "are not really inflecting." CEO Lisa Su said demand for AMD's next-generation AI servers, including shipments to OpenAI and other customers, is set to accelerate sharply in the second half of the year, adding that a global memory-chip shortage would not constrain production. Investors' reaction to AMD's performance was in stark contrast ⁠to a more than ⁠11% jump in shares of Super Micro Computer, after the company raised its annual revenue outlook, pointing to continued strength in demand for AI-optimised servers. The upbeat outlook from Super Micro, a key partner to chip designers including Nvidia and AMD, highlights continued strength in downstream AI infrastructure spending, even as investors question the pace at which chipmakers can convert demand into near-term earnings growth. AMD commands a higher forward price-to-earnings multiple of 33.16, compared to SMCI that trades at a more modest 10.81. (Reporting by Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Danilo Masoni in London; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

AMD CEO Lisa Su Says Company Is Not Forecasting Any China AI Chip Revenue Beyond $100 Million In Q1 Amid Licensing Uncertainty - Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD)

On Tuesday, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) CEO Lisa Su said the chipmaker is limiting its China revenue outlook to $100 million in the first quarter as U.S. export licensing for advanced AI chips remains uncertain. AMD Limits China Outlook During the company's fourth-quarter earnings call, AMD said it is not assuming any additional revenue from China beyond the $100 million it expects to generate in the first quarter of 2025, citing ongoing uncertainty around U.S. export licenses for its advanced AI chips. Su said recent China-related sales were tied to a previously approved license and should not be viewed as a signal of broader near-term momentum in the region. "We were pleased to have some MI308 sales in the fourth quarter," Su said. "Those orders were actually from very early in 2025" and were approved through the licensing process. MI308 Sales Approved, But No Further China Revenue Assumed Su further stated that AMD recorded some MI308 accelerator revenue in the fourth quarter and is forecasting $100 million in China-related sales for the first quarter. Beyond that, the company is not building any incremental China revenue into its outlook. "We are not forecasting any additional revenue from China just because it's a very dynamic situation. So given that it's a dynamic situation, we're still waiting for we've submitted licenses for the MI325," Su stated. China Strategy Reflects Broader Regulatory Caution U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips have tightened in recent years, forcing semiconductor companies to carefully manage product road maps and regional revenue expectations. AMD posted fourth-quarter revenue of $10.27 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $9.67 billion, while adjusted earnings came in at $1.53 per share, exceeding the $1.32 per-share estimate, according to Benzinga Pro. Price Action: AMD shares closed Tuesday at $242.11, down 1.69% and fell further in pre-market trading to $224.50, a drop of 7.20%, according to Benzinga Pro. AMD shows a stronger price trend across the short, medium and long term, though it carries a weak value ranking, according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Piotr Swat via Shutterstock Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

AMD CEO Expects Server CPU Supply Ramp To Help Boost Revenue

'We have increased our supply capacity capability for server CPUs, and that's one of the reasons we're able to increase our [first-quarter] guide as it relates to the server business. And we see the ability to continue to grow that throughout the year," AMD CEO Lisa Su says. AMD CEO Lisa Su said Tuesday that the company expects more revenue in the first quarter in part because it was able to boost server CPU production capacity in the face of strong demand from the ongoing AI data center buildout. Su made the comments during AMD's fourth-quarter earnings call, where the company reported that revenue for the period grew 34 percent year over year and 11 percent sequentially to $10.3 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations. This was mainly driven by record data center revenue, propped up by strong demand for its EPYC CPUs and the ongoing ramp of Instinct GPUs, as well as record client revenue from its Ryzen CPUs. [Related: How Intel Got Caught Off Guard By A CPU Shortage Again] The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company expected a first-quarter revenue of roughly $9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million. While this would represent a roughly 5 percent sequential decline, it would mark a 32 percent increase year over year. The guidance came in slightly higher than Wall Street's expectations, and Su said one of the drivers was the ability to boost server CPU production capacity with supply chain partners. "We have increased our supply capacity capability for server CPUs, and that's one of the reasons we're able to increase our [first-quarter] guide as it relates to the server business," she said. "And we see the ability to continue to grow that throughout the year. There's no question that the demand continues to be strong, and so we're working with our supply chain partners to increase supply as well." This came in contrast to the situation outlined nearly two weeks ago by Intel. That's when the rival said that its first-quarter revenue is set to decline 11 percent sequentially and 3.9 percent from the same period last year at the midpoint for its forecasted range of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion because it is unable to meet unexpectedly high demand for its server CPUs. That guidance fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Su said AMD expects to see "very strong growth" in data center revenue this year in part because of the high demand for its EPYC CPUs. "We've talked about the fact that CPUs are very important as AI continues to ramp, and we've seen the CPU order book continue to strengthen as we go through the last few quarters, and especially over the last 60 days," she said. "So we see that as a strong growth driver for us. As [AMD CFO Jean Hu] said, we see server CPU growing from Q4 into Q1 in what normally is seasonally down, and that continues throughout the year." The other driver for AMD's high data center expectations this year is the company's Instinct GPUs, with Su calling the company's plan to launch its Instinct MI450 GPU series in the second half of the year an "inflection point for us." "That revenue will start in the third quarter, but it will ramp significant volume in the fourth quarter as we get into 2027," she said, adding that most of the MI450 GPU revenue this year is expected to be for rack-scale solutions like the "Helios" platform. On that note, Su reaffirmed AMD's expectation that it will make tens of billions of dollars in AI data center revenue next year, driven by the chip designer's Instinct GPUs. "I would say the customer engagements continue to proceed very well. We have obviously a very strong relationship with OpenAI," she said. "[...] We're also working closely with a number of other customers who are very interested in ramping MI450 quickly, just given the strength of the product. And we see that across both inference and training." Asked about the impact of the ongoing memory chip shortage, Su said she expects the PC market to shrink this year due to the "inflationary pressures of the commodities pricing, including memory." However, she added that AMD believes that it can grow its PC business this year, especially as it focuses on enterprise customers. "That's a place where we're making a very nice progress in 2025 and we expect that in 2026 and just continuing to grow at the premium, higher end of the market," Su said.

The Hidden Driver Behind AMD's Most Bullish 2026 Guidance | The Motley Fool

AMD expects 60% annual data center growth, but GPUs aren't the whole story. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +8.32%) took a beating on Wednesday as investors digested the chip company's fourth-quarter report. AMD's results and guidance were generally solid, with revenue soaring 34% year over year in the fourth quarter and the company's outlook calling for 32% growth in the first quarter of 2026. One thing that stood out about AMD's outlook was its expectations for the data center segment. This segment houses AMD's EPYC server CPUs and its Instinct data center GPUs, and it grew revenue by 39% in the fourth quarter. AMD CEO Lisa Su expects growth to accelerate dramatically going forward. "...we are well-positioned to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually, over the next three to five years and scale our AI business to tens of billions in annual revenue in 2027," Su said during the earnings call. AMD's AI accelerators will be a big part of the story as the company scales up its MI400 series chips and its Helios rack-scale solutions, but CPUs will play a surprisingly large role as well. As the AI industry has evolved from question-answer style chatbots to complex AI agents, the CPU is making a comeback and will help drive AMD's growth. In a standard AI chatbot, the user asks a question, and the chatbot returns an answer drawn solely from its training data. This process happens entirely on the GPU. Agentic AI is fundamentally different. AI agents run in a loop. The user makes a request, and the agent must decide what to do first. Typically, an agent has a list of tools at its disposal. These tools could handle web searches, file access, data analysis, or running code written by the user or an AI agent. The big thing here is that this tool calling involves the CPU, not the GPU. Here's an example: Imagine an AI agent that produces an infographic of the 7-day weather forecast each day. First, it would make a tool call to some external API to fetch weather data. Then it would make another tool call to run a piece of code that converts the weather data to the right format. Then, yet another tool call might either run code that generates the graphic or tap an external AI image service. Finally, the result is returned to the user. There's plenty of GPU usage going on here. Between each tool call, it's the AI agent that decides what to do next. But the action of using those tools happens on the CPU. The CPU is running code, searching the web, manipulating data, and making API calls. "Where, you know, when you have, these AI processes or AI agents that are spinning off a lot of work, in an enterprise, they're actually going to a lot of traditional CPU tasks," noted Su during the earnings call. Su expects the server CPU market to expand by "strong double digits" in 2026. AMD has been increasing its supply capacity to meet this demand, but CPUs could still be a bottleneck for AI infrastructure providers. Intel is also seeing booming demand for its server CPUs, and despite shifting manufacturing capacity away from PC chips, the market leader expects supply to fall short of demand. AMD has been gaining server CPU market share from Intel for years, and now an expanding market adds another tailwind for its server CPU business. Intel's products have become more competitive, so market share gains may be tougher going forward, but a rising tide in the server CPU market will lift all boats. In the data center GPU market, AMD must contend with an entrenched Nvidia. In the CPU market, AMD is in a stronger competitive position. Even if AMD's AI accelerator ramp goes more slowly than expected, the company's EPYC server CPUs can still drive strong growth in the data center segment and help it hit its bullish target.

AMD shares fall as data-center sales boom remains months away

Excluding the surprise AI chip sales to China, the company's data-center segment would have missed estimates at a time when longtime rival Nvidia has accustomed investors to blowout forecasts. On a conference call with investors, AMD CEO Lisa Su reiterated that the company expects sales of a new flagship AI server to OpenAI and others to rise rapidly in the second half of this year, saying a global memory-chip crunch will not slow its plans. Advanced Micro Devices on Tuesday forecast a slight decline in first-quarter revenue despite an unexpected boost from sales of its AI chips to ⁠China, raising concerns about whether it can effectively challenge Nvidia in the booming AI market. Excluding the surprise AI chip sales to China, the company's data-center segment would have missed estimates at a time when longtime rival Nvidia has accustomed investors to blowout forecasts. On a conference call with investors, AMD CEO Lisa Su reiterated that the company expects sales of a new flagship AI server to OpenAI and others to rise rapidly in the second half of this year, saying a global memory-chip crunch will not slow its plans. "I do not believe that we will be supply-limited in terms of the ramp that we put in place," Su said. Still, those sales remain outside the company's forecast for the current first quarter, meaning that its other chips such as central processing units (CPUs) will have to carry most of its sales growth in the coming months. Shares fell 7% in extended trading. "The expectations for large blowout quarters for AI-related hardware companies have skewed what the market is looking for," said Bob O'Donnell, president of TECHnalysis Research. Santa Clara, California-based AMD is seen as the closest contender to challenge the AI chip dominance of the world's most valuable firm, Nvidia, as Big Tech and governments across the globe double down on investing in AI hardware. During the conference call, Su also said AMD is working with customers beyond OpenAI on AMD's new AI servers. But analysts remain concerned that AMD's success remains tied to a handful of customers that rivals such as Nvidia could try to poach. Reuters reported this week that Nvidia made a $20 billion move to hire most of chip startup Groq's founders after OpenAI held chip supply discussions with the startup. "Growth appears concentrated in large deployments and specific regions, and China shipments are significant enough to influence a quarter," said eMarketer analyst Gadjo Sevilla. AMD said it expects revenue of about $9.8 billion for the first quarter, plus or minus $300 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $9.39 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. AMD said about $100 million of those first-quarter sales would come from its MI308 AI chips in China. The midpoint of the sales forecast represents year-over-year growth of approximately 32% and a sequential decline of approximately 5%, AMD said. And when stripping out China sales that Wall Street did not anticipate, the low end of the forecast range was $9.4 billion, just above analyst estimates. AMD said it expects adjusted gross margin of 55%, above analyst estimates of 54.19%. Nvidia, by contrast, has told investors it expects adjusted gross margin in the mid-70% range during its fiscal 2027. AMD reported fourth-quarter sales of $10.27 billion, compared with estimates of $9.67 billion. Revenue in its key data-center segment grew 39% to $5.38 billion in the quarter, beating estimates of $5.07 billion. Excluding sales of the MI308, which is a data-center chip, the results would have been $9.88 billion in overall sales, but data-center revenue would have been $4.99 billion, below estimates. AMD executives said in November that the company received licenses to sell modified versions of its MI300 series of AI chips in China, after the Trump administration placed ⁠further restrictions on exports of advanced chips to Beijing. ⁠The MI308 chip competes with Nvidia's H20 chip, both of which were legal to sell in China at the start of last year. AMD is also one of the leading providers of data-center central processing units, which are used alongside pricey graphics processors in servers. The rapid expansion of data-center capacity has boosted server CPU demand, benefiting AMD, which has been steadily eating away at rival Intel's share of the market. While Intel has been unable to fully address demand for server CPUs due to supply constraints for its in-house production, analysts expected AMD to face fewer such issues since it outsources the manufacturing of its chips to Taiwan's TSMC. AMD has accelerated its AI product launches and is moving into selling full AI systems from just chips to better compete against Nvidia, which now provides "rack-scale" systems that combine GPUs, CPUs and networking gear. AMD also entered into a multi-year deal with OpenAI last year to supply AI chips to the company, which would bring in tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the startup the option to buy up to roughly 10% of the chipmaker.

AMD falls as dour forecast shows tough competition in AI trade

Advanced Micro Devices shares sank 13 per cent on Wednesday after the company's lackluster sales forecast deepened investor doubts about its ability to take on AI chip bellwether Nvidia. AMD predicted its revenue would fall slightly in the current quarter, even as a resumption of China sales gives an unexpected boost, showing its struggle to penetrate the booming market where Nvidia is aggressively defending its position. Growing use of custom AI chips by tech giants, and Google's deal to supply Anthropic with its advanced processors in a deal worth billions of dollars have also piled pressure on AMD. A new legal plug-in for Anthropic's Claude chatbot that can automate some routine tasks triggered a selloff in software stocks that extended into a second day on Tuesday, as investors worried about the future of the software industry. AMD forecast first‑quarter revenue of about US$9.8 billion, plus or minus $300 million, slightly ahead of analysts' average estimate of $9.67 billion. But the forecast was still lower than the $10.27 billion the company reported in the fourth quarter. The disappointing outlook comes despite a boost from China-bound AI chip sales, approved under a U.S. license in early 2025, that generated $390 million. Without those sales, AMD's data center segment would have missed analysts' estimates in the fourth quarter. "In such an intense environment, overall results weren't all that much beyond 'inline' without the China boost," Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said, adding that near‑term AI numbers "are not really inflecting." CEO Lisa Su said demand for AMD's next‑generation AI servers, including shipments to OpenAI and other customers, is set to accelerate sharply in the second half of the year, adding that a global memory‑chip shortage would not constrain production. Investors' reaction to AMD's performance was in stark contrast to a more than 11% jump in shares of Super Micro Computer, after the company raised its annual revenue outlook, pointing to continued strength in demand for AI‑optimised servers. The upbeat outlook from Super Micro, a key partner to chip designers including Nvidia and AMD, highlights continued strength in downstream AI infrastructure spending, even as investors question the pace at which chipmakers can convert demand into near‑term earnings growth. AMD commands a higher forward price-to-earnings multiple of 33.16, compared to SMCI that trades at a more modest 10.81.