Apple's "Glowtime" Event: iPhone 16 Launch and Its Potential Impact on Stock Performance

How Apple's Highly Anticipated iPhone 16 Launch Event Could Affect Its Stock

Historically, Apple's stock price has tended to underperform the S&P 500 on the day of an iPhone launch event, Morgan Stanley analysts said, though others suggested AI enthusiasm could help the stock defy historical patterns. Despite bullish views surrounding the iPhone maker's AI opportunity, Morgan Stanley analysts indicated the event could potentially send Apple's stock lower on Monday, though the new devices and AI integration are expected to fuel better performance in the following months. "Historically, the iPhone launch event has been a sell-the-news event," the analysts wrote, noting that Apple stock tends to underperform the S&P 500 on the day of iPhone launch events, and "modestly outperform" the market in the following three months. While bulls believe the AI-supercharged iPhone 16 could kick off a "golden upgrade cycle" for Apple, sending shares higher, Morgan Stanley indicated investors need to "get past" the launch event itself before expecting to see significant AI-related gains. However, Bank of America analysts suggested this iPhone launch event could be different, given the wildcard AI opportunity. "If Apple surprises with a compelling demo of Apple Intelligence/third party integrations or with any price increases, we could see the stock fare better than post past events," the analysts wrote. Morgan Stanley analysts said while they don't necessarily expect the market to behave differently in reaction to Apple's event Monday, they do see "potential for Apple to perform better than historical seasonality into year-end as the introduction of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence helps to unlock pent-up demand." Apple shares finished 0.7% higher at $222.38 Thursday, and have gained over 15% from the start of the year.

What Wall Street Analysts Think of Apple Stock Ahead of Monday's iPhone 16 Event

Investors will likely be watching for stock movement, as the event could signal that the company is benefiting from its AI opportunity, and a "golden upgrade cycle" is underway. Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish on Apple (AAPL) stock leading up to the company's "It's Glowtime" event on Monday, where Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 16 supercharged with AI and the next-generation AirPods and Apple Watch. According to data as of late Thursday, more than half (roughly 69%) of the analysts covering Apple and tracked by Visible Alpha -- 11 out of 21 -- have "buy" or equivalent positive ratings on the stock. An additional four analysts have a "hold" rating, while only one has posted a "sell" rating. The average of the consensus price targets examined was $244.06, representing a 10.5% premium over Wednesday's closing price. The price-target levels in the consensus analysis range from $162 to $285. Investors likely will be watching for signs that the iPhone maker is leveraging its AI opportunity and that the "golden upgrade cycle" has kicked off, driven by the AI iPhone 16. Apple shares were up about 0.6% at $222.38 late Thursday, contributing to the stock's almost 16% rise since the start of the year.

4 Things To Watch at Apple's 'It's Glowtime' iPhone 16 Event Monday

Apple could also unveil next-generation models of its AirPod and Apple Watch offerings. Apple's (AAPL) "It's Glowtime" event is set to take place on Monday, Sept. 9, where the company is expected to unveil the iPhone 16 supercharged with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Investors will also likely be watching for pricing and hardware differences in the new iPhone compared to previous models, and possible next-generation wearable products like AirPods and the Apple Watch. AI-supercharged Siri is likely to be a key focus of the event, with Apple's announcement for "It's Glowtime," displaying the company's logo in the style of the glowing aura of Apple's Siri interface. Apple announced its newest operating system, iOS 18, and Apple Intelligence, at its developer conference in June, where the company said the intelligent system will help Siri understand more natural speech patterns, use personal context from on-device content, and accept typed prompts, among other AI-powered capabilities. The iPhone maker has also announced a partnership with Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into iOS 18 later this year. Apple Intelligence is expected to roll out after the initial iOS 18 launch, but the company could demo some of the AI features to come at the event, showing investors how the iPhone maker is integrating the technology. Apple is expected to release four models of the next-generation iPhone -- the iPhone 16, the iPhone 16 Plus, the iPhone 16 Pro, and the iPhone 16 Pro Max. The new models, particularly the Pro models are expected to have significant upgrades to the device hardware including battery life and displays, as well as other features, Bernstein analysts indicated. Improvements to battery life could be especially appealing to users as AI features require increased computing power. Morgan Stanley analysts said they "believe a strong battery upgrade can help to drive old device refreshes given battery life is one of the key reasons users historically upgrade an iPhone." The base iPhone 16 models are expected to have similar designs and display sizes to the iPhone 15, while the Pro models are expected to be larger than their predecessors at 6.3 and 6.9 inches for the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max, respectively, marking the first size upgrade in several years. The new iPhones are expected to run on the A18 chip, the next generation of Apple's silicon chips, which will likely be designed to handle Apple Intelligence workloads. The new device's camera will also likely be in focus with CFRA analysts expecting an ultra-wide 48-megapixel camera and potentially a shutter button for capturing photos. The iPhone 16 models are expected to be priced like their iPhone 15 counterparts when they were launched, but analysts noted that AI capabilities could be a "wildcard" in pricing. Analysts expect the iPhone 16 base model to start at $799 while the lowest storage option of the iPhone 16 Max could cost around $1,199, the same range as the iPhone 15 when it was released around the same time last year. Morgan Stanley analysts said that while they don't expect Apple to raise iPhone prices from their levels last year, the possibility of a price increase still exists, though they view potential price hikes as "a net negative for Apple given it would likely drive some upgraders to extend the useful life of their iPhone for another year." The iPhone maker could also unveil new additions to its wearable portfolio, with analysts expecting Apple to introduce upgraded versions of the AirPod Pro and AirPod Max with USB-C charging ports. The company is also expected to overhaul its watch offerings with a new Apple Watch Series 10, an Apple Watch Ultra 3, and a third-gen Apple Watch SE. The new models are likely to feature bigger and thinner displays. Apple shares have gained close to 15% since the start of the year, at $220.85 as of Wednesday's close.

Here's what Wall Street expects from Apple's iPhone event and why analysts remain cool on stock

Analysts are broadly optimistic on Apple - but they're not expecting its upcoming product launches to rescue the stock or boost demand all of a sudden. Several Wall Street firms reiterated their stances on Apple stock ahead of the tech titan's "It's Glowtime" event on Sept. 9, when the company is expected to launch its iPhone 16 . Analysts also expect the tech giant to highlight its artificial intelligence capabilities through its "Apple Intelligence" software, which should be available to the public later this year rather than alongside the new iPhone hardware. Indeed, on Tuesday UBS analyst David Vogt and Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell stuck with their neutral ratings on the stock. Vogt is looking for Apple to play up its AI initiatives but doesn't think it'll create substantial buzz around the stock. The analyst said he doesn't "expect anything revolutionary from the hardware changes" alone. He kept his $236 price target on shares, which implies a potential 5.9% gain from Tuesday's close. "While the market is bullish on the possibility of a strong replacement cycle, we don't view the AI related offerings as compelling enough in the near term to drive significant demand, particularly given regional headwinds like increased competitive pressure in China and regulatory hurdles in the EU and China that are not likely to be resolved in the near term limiting the geographic reach of Apple Intelligence," Vogt said. He added that iPhone sell-through levels this fall will be critical to gauge demand. AAPL YTD mountain Apple stock. Piper Sandler's Farrell, meanwhile, has a price target of $225 -- that is, upside of 1% -- as he waits for further AI updates from the company. "We continue to believe a lot of the near-term excitement is built into the stock," he said a research note. "From our perspective, the key takeaways from the event being Apple Intelligence rather than the iPhone hardware updates would be a positive for the potential 'super cycle.'" He noted that he's also watching for iPhone 16 pricing, especially as cracks in consumer spending emerge across all income levels. Similarly, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi views the stock's "risk-reward coming more into balance" as Apple trades at the high end of its historical valuation range. Goldman Sachs is slightly more optimistic about Apple in the long run, on the other hand. On Tuesday, the firm reiterated its buy rating and $276 price target on the iPhone maker. That suggests potential upside of nearly 24%. Like other analysts though, Goldman's Michael Ng does not think the upcoming event will be a catalyst to the stock price. This year, Apple shares are up nearly 15%, but they're already down more than 3% to kick off September. Apple's share price tends to move higher as hype builds up ahead of its fall product launches. However, the stock's lowest average returns occur during Septembers -- the month of the launches. Over the past 10 years, Apple shares averaged a September loss of 3.5%. That decline follows average gains of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August, according to FactSet. "In the past 5 years, AAPL stock underperformed the S & P 500 by an average of 70 bps on the day of the iPhone announcement, and we expect this year's event to be similarly immaterial to the stock price," Ng said. Still, Ng believes that new product innovation in the iPhone 16, such as larger display sizes and better camera features, along with its new AI features should drive upgrades and installed base growth. He forecasted iPhone revenue to decline 1% year over year in 2024, but thinks it should grow 9% in 2025 and 2026 on a year-on-year basis.

Apple's Glowtime Event: Will The iPhone 16 Shine Or Fizzle? - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Goldman Sachs is bullish on long-term growth, while Piper Sandler cautions against potential iPhone price hikes amid weak consumer spending. Apple Inc's AAPL much-anticipated "It's Glowtime" event on Sept. 9 has the tech world buzzing, but analysts are playing it cool. With expectations for an iPhone 16, updated Apple Watches and AirPods, investors are curious if this event will light up Apple's stock or leave it dim. Goldman Sachs On iPhone Product Innovations Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng remains optimistic about Apple's long-term prospects, reiterating a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $276, reflecting 23.9% upside expectations for the stock. Apple stock generally underperforms the broad market on the day of iPhone announcements, the analyst said. While the Monday event may be "similarly immaterial to the stock price," potential upside surprises could come from "the announcement of a price increase on iPhones," "earlier-than-expected AI features and apps" and "better-than-expected carrier promotions," he said. Ng is particularly bullish on the new product innovation in the iPhone 16, expecting it to drive "upgrades and installed base growth," with iPhone revenue growth forecasted to accelerate to 9% in both FY2025 and FY2026, driven by "AI features and new iPhone hardware form factors." Read Also: Apple, Nvidia Will Lead 3-To-5-Year Tech Bull Run, Analyst Says: 'I Am A Buyer Here' Piper Sandler: 'Apple Intelligence Can Be The Star Of The Show' On the other hand, Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell takes a more cautious stance, maintaining a Neutral rating with a price target of $225. Farrell expresses concern that "a lot of the near-term excitement is built into the stock at ~30x CY25E EPS." The event could be significant if "Apple Intelligence can be the 'star of the show,'" which would be an "incremental positive for the 'super cycle' thesis," the analyst said. Piper Sandler is wary of any major price increases for the iPhone 16, noting that "any major price increase this cycle would be viewed as a negative," particularly as consumer spending shows signs of weakening, he said. Apple's Glowtime Event Expectations -- A Mixed Bag As Apple gears up for its Glowtime event, the consensus among analysts is that while the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence have the potential to impress, there's caution in the air. Ng's optimism hinges on the possibility of surprise announcements, while Farrell remains skeptical, focusing on potential headwinds like consumer spending and the lack of revolutionary changes. Investors will be watching closely to see if Apple can truly shine or if this event will be more of a slow burn. Read Next: EXCLUSIVE: Apple's iPhone 16 Launch Will Be 'Disappointment Before The Excitement,' Gene Munster Says Photo courtesy of Apple. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

Apple's "It's Glowtime" event: Expect iPhone 16, updated watches, AirPods, says Goldman By Investing.com

Apple's upcoming "It's Glowtime" event, set for September 9, 2024, is expected to feature significant product announcements, primarily the iPhone 16 lineup, new Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Watch models, and updated AirPods, analysts at Goldman Sachs said Tuesday. While the event may not have a notable impact on Apple's stock price, there is still potential for upside surprises. "In the past 5 years, AAPL stock underperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 70 bps on the day of the iPhone announcement, and we expect this year's event to be similarly immaterial to the stock price," analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote. "That said, upside surprises could include (1) the announcement of a price increase on iPhones; (2) earlier-than-expected AI features and apps; (3) new iPad announcements; and (4) better-than-expected carrier promotions," they added. Key product announcements are expected to revolve around the iPhone 16 series, which will introduce four new models: iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. Noteworthy upgrades include larger displays on the Pro and Pro Max models, now at 6.3" and 6.9" respectively, alongside the incorporation of WiFi 7 and potential price increases for the higher-end models. In addition, Apple is anticipated to introduce processor innovations and improvements to camera features, including the addition of a "Capture" button on all models. As a further enhancement, AI-powered features such as "Apple Intelligence" may drive future iPhone upgrades and boost revenue growth beyond 2024. "We forecast iPhone revenue to be -1% yoy in F2024E but expect iPhone revenue growth to accelerate to 9% in both F2025 and F2026, catalyzed by AI features and new iPhone hardware form factors," analysts at Goldman Sachs noted. Alongside the new iPhone launch, fresh Apple Watch models are also expected. The Apple Watch Series 10, Apple Watch Ultra 3, and Apple Watch SE 3 will likely be revealed, with upgrades focusing on larger display sizes and the introduction of a new S10 processor. While there are not expected to be substantial price changes, these new models will offer improved performance, particularly for the Ultra 3. Apple is also likely to unveil the 4th-generation AirPods, with notable features including noise cancellation and a speaker in the charging case for location tracking, as well as USB-C charging ports. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on Apple stock ahead of the event, with a price target of $276.