Global Markets React to Middle East Tensions and US Interest Rate Expectations

Gold, oil come off boil as Middle East risks, US rates in focus

LONDON - Gold prices were just shy of a record peak and oil prices levelled off on Tuesday after a surge over the past week, as investors sought safety amid geopolitical risks and looked ahead to Nvidia earnings and U.S. inflation data later this week. European stocks edged up in early trading, following a late rally in Japan's Nikkei index. Global stock indices were little changed overall, with forecast-beating profit from the world's biggest listed miner BHP helping to prop up sentiment. Gold hovered above the $2,500 per-ounce level on expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts and lingering concerns about the Middle East conflict, exacerbated by a major missile exchange between Israel and Hezbollah on Sunday. Middle East tensions - along with concerns about a potential shutdown of Libyan oil fields - had led to a surge in oil prices of more than 7% over the previous three sessions. However, that rally lost steam on Tuesday, with a slight dip in prices. Expectations for faster interest rate cuts in the United States have been a key driver of market moves, after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Friday the central bank was ready to start cutting interest rates. "It would be a real shock not to get a (Fed) rate cut in September," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, adding an initial 25 basis point cut was most likely. "It was also interesting that he didn't really push against the market expectations of 100 plus basis points of rate cuts between now and year-end," Miller added. The dollar index was just off a one-year low at 100.82 , reflecting bets on faster rate cuts, while the euro and pound nudged towards multi-month highs versus the greenback. A key measure of U.S. inflation due on Friday could further influence market perceptions of how quickly the Fed will act. Investors were also on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally. "I think Nvidia will take more importance than the [inflation data]," said Michaël Nizard, head of multi-asset at investor Edmond de Rothschild. "We know that the pace of inflation is going well. We don't know what could be the guidance for this big, big actor in artificial intelligence. This could be a bump for the market." MSCI's all-country index of stocks <.MIWD00000PUS > was broadly unchanged on the day at 830.17. Also keeping sentiment in check was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China. Oil prices took a breather, with Brent crude futures 0.3% lower at $81.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $77.01 a barrel. (Reporting by Iain Withers in London, Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong and Christina Fincher)

Gold, oil come off boil as Middle East risks, US rates in focus

Middle East tensions - along with concerns about a potential shutdown of Libyan oil fields - had led to a surge in oil prices of more than 7% over the previous three sessions. However, that rally lost steam on Tuesday, with a slight dip in prices. [O/R] Expectations for faster interest rate cuts in the United States have been a key driver of market moves, after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Friday the central bank was ready to start cutting interest rates. "It would be a real shock not to get a (Fed) rate cut in September," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, adding an initial 25 basis point cut was most likely. "It was also interesting that he didn't really push against the market expectations of 100 plus basis points of rate cuts between now and year-end," Miller added. The dollar index was just off a one-year low at 100.82, reflecting bets on faster rate cuts, while the euro and pound nudged towards multi-month highs versus the greenback. [FRX/] A key measure of U.S. inflation due on Friday could further influence market perceptions of how quickly the Fed will act. Investors were also on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally. "I think Nvidia will take more importance than the [inflation data]," said Michaël Nizard, head of multi-asset at investor Edmond de Rothschild. "We know that the pace of inflation is going well. We don't know what could be the guidance for this big, big actor in artificial intelligence. This could be a bump for the market." MSCI's all-country index of stocks was broadly unchanged on the day at 830.17. Also keeping sentiment in check was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China. Oil prices took a breather, with Brent crude futures 0.3% lower at $81.15 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $77.01 a barrel. (Reporting by Iain Withers in London, Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Jacqueline Wong and Christina Fincher)

Stocks edge lower, oil jumps on supply concerns over Mideast, Libya

The benchmark S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq gave up early gains and traded lower, while the Dow climbed. European shares finished slightly down, with trading subdued in the London market, which is closed for a public holiday. Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index closed down almost 0.7% as the yen firmed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.07% to 41,205.49, the S&P 500 lost 0.30% to 5,617.52 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.79% to 17,736.98. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.18% to 829.87. Israel and Hezbollah traded rocket salvos and airstrikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible oil supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Crude prices were also buoyed by Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields on Monday, which halted production and exports. Brent crude traded up 2.7% to $81.15 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.18% to $77.21 per barrel. "The market is digesting a lot of news: obviously there was a rally on Friday on (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell's comments and we thought durable goods orders come in good," said Ben McMillan, principal and chief investment officer at IDX Insights in Tampa, Florida. "Historically rate cuts have actually preceded equity market weakness because rates are being cut for a reason." New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, surged by 9.9% last month, marking a solid rebound from a decline in June and beating analyst expectations, Commerce Department data showed. In a highly-anticipated speech to the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane struck a more cautious note in his Jackson Hole speech, saying the central bank was making "good progress" in cutting euro zone inflation back to its 2% target, but success was not yet assured. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 0.3 basis points to 3.81%. The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1 basis point to 3.9231%. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the September 18 meeting, and imply a 39.5% chance of a 50 bps move. The market also has 103 bps of easing priced in for this year and another 122 bps in 2025. The ECB has already started cutting rates, with a 25 bps reduction in July, with a further two quarter point reductions priced in by year-end. "I think it's more likely than not that we're going to see 75 bps cut this year. And the market has some potential readjustment for less rate cuts than is being priced in," McMillan said. Investors are also eyeing the latest earnings from AI powerhouse Nvidia , which reports on Wednesday to sky-high market expectations. The stock is up some 160% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 18% year-to-date gain. "The big thing this week is really Nvidia more than any of the macro stuff. I think folks are really focused on Nvidia because that's been kind of the bellwether for the risk-on trade this year," McMillan added. Also in focus are U.S personal consumption and core inflation data due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. The Japanese yen rose to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, while the greenback rallied from an eight-month low. The dollar dropped to a three-week low against the yen of 143.45 but pared losses and was last slightly up 0.08% at 144.5. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.18% at 100.84, with the euro down 0.21% at $1.1167. Gold prices firmed, nearing the recent record high on safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 0.14% to $2,513.79 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.28% to $2,515.50 an ounce. (Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by Mark Potter, Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)

Asian stocks slide as geopolitical worries sap confidence

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as investors pondered looming U.S. interest rate cuts and awaited earnings from AI darling Nvidia, while rising tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns checked risk sentiment and lifted oil prices. Gold prices were just shy of a record peak, while the dollar firmed and the yen hovered near its highest in three weeks as investors sough safety amid geopolitical risks, with Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah exchanging fire on Sunday. [GOL/] [FRX/] Also supporting crude prices was Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields, which halted production and exports. [O/R] Investors are on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the AI chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.36% lower on Tuesday, inching away from the one-month high it touched in the previous session. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.16%, while Chinese stocks were also on the back foot. China's blue stock index CSI300 fell 0.28% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 1% lower in early trading, dragged by lacklustre earnings from Temu-parent PDD Holdings due to lower consumer spending. Also weighing on sentiment was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China. POWELL PIVOT In an eagerly awaited speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts, putting the focus on the Fed's September meeting. "With the Fed now firmly in the driver's seat, the markets will be on an intense data watch," said Gary Dugan, CEO of the Global CIO Office. Investor focus will be on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index - Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - due to be released on Friday and then the August payrolls report next week. Markets are fully priced for a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next month, with 100 bps of easing anticipated in the next three meetings of the year. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore, said Powell did not clarify the size of the Fed's upcoming rate cuts noting it "will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." "We continue to see the Fed making two 25 bps rate cuts this year to the benefit of risk assets. We think a 50bps cut next month is only likely if the payrolls report shows another jump in unemployment." The yen was a shade lower at 144.67 per dollar, giving up some of its safe haven gains from the previous session which saw it rise to a three-week high of 143.45 per dollar. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was last at 100.84, close to a 13-month low of 100.53 it touched in the previous session. Oil prices took a breather in early trading on Tuesday after rising 3% in the previous session due to supply concerns in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East and production cuts in Libya. Brent crude futures were 0.45% lower at $81.06 a barrel, but not far from the two week high of $81.58 it touched on Monday. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $77.01 a barrel but remained close to a one-week high of $77.60 it touched overnight. Gold prices eased to $2,511 per ounce on Tuesday just shy of the record high of $2,531.60 reached on Aug. 20. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asian stocks slide as geopolitical worries sap confidence

SINGAPORE: Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as investors pondered looming U.S. interest rate cuts and awaited earnings from AI darling Nvidia, while rising tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns checked risk sentiment and lifted oil prices. Gold prices were just shy of a record peak, while the dollar firmed and the yen hovered near its highest in three weeks as investors sough safety amid geopolitical risks, with Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah exchanging fire on Sunday. Also supporting crude prices was Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields, which halted production and exports. Investors are on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the AI chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.36% lower on Tuesday, inching away from the one-month high it touched in the previous session. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.16%, while Chinese stocks were also on the back foot. China's blue stock index CSI300 fell 0.28% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 1% lower in early trading, dragged by lacklustre earnings from Temu-parent PDD Holdings due to lower consumer spending. Also weighing on sentiment was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China. POWELL PIVOT In an eagerly awaited speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts, putting the focus on the Fed's September meeting. "With the Fed now firmly in the driver's seat, the markets will be on an intense data watch," said Gary Dugan, CEO of the Global CIO Office. Investor focus will be on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index - Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - due to be released on Friday and then the August payrolls report next week. Markets are fully priced for a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next month, with 100 bps of easing anticipated in the next three meetings of the year. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore, said Powell did not clarify the size of the Fed's upcoming rate cuts noting it "will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." "We continue to see the Fed making two 25 bps rate cuts this year to the benefit of risk assets. We think a 50bps cut next month is only likely if the payrolls report shows another jump in unemployment." The yen was a shade lower at 144.67 per dollar, giving up some of its safe haven gains from the previous session which saw it rise to a three-week high of 143.45 per dollar. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was last at 100.84, close to a 13-month low of 100.53 it touched in the previous session. Oil prices took a breather in early trading on Tuesday after rising 3% in the previous session due to supply concerns in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East and production cuts in Libya. Brent crude futures were 0.45% lower at $81.06 a barrel, but not far from the two week high of $81.58 it touched on Monday. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $77.01 a barrel but remained close to a one-week high of $77.60 it touched overnight. Gold prices eased to $2,511 per ounce on Tuesday just shy of the record high of $2,531.60 reached on Aug. 20. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Stocks edge lower, oil jumps on supply concerns over Mideast, Libya

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -World equity markets edged lower on Monday as markets digested the likelihood of U.S. interest rates being lowered soon, even as oil prices jumped amid increased tensions in the Middle East. The benchmark S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq gave up early gains and traded lower, while the Dow climbed. European shares finished slightly down, with trading subdued in the London market, which is closed for a public holiday. Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index closed down almost 0.7% as the yen firmed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.07% to 41,205.49, the S&P 500 lost 0.30% to 5,617.52 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.79% to 17,736.98. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.18% to 829.87. Israel and Hezbollah traded rocket salvos and airstrikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible oil supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Crude prices were also buoyed by Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields on Monday, which halted production and exports. Brent crude traded up 2.7% to $81.15 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 3.18% to $77.21 per barrel. "The market is digesting a lot of news: obviously there was a rally on Friday on (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell's comments and we thought durable goods orders come in good," said Ben McMillan, principal and chief investment officer at IDX Insights in Tampa, Florida. "Historically rate cuts have actually preceded equity market weakness because rates are being cut for a reason." New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, surged by 9.9% last month, marking a solid rebound from a decline in June and beating analyst expectations, Commerce Department data showed. In a highly-anticipated speech to the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane struck a more cautious note in his Jackson Hole speech, saying the central bank was making "good progress" in cutting euro zone inflation back to its 2% target, but success was not yet assured. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 0.3 basis points to 3.81%. The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1 basis point to 3.9231%. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the September 18 meeting, and imply a 39.5% chance of a 50 bps move. The market also has 103 bps of easing priced in for this year and another 122 bps in 2025. The ECB has already started cutting rates, with a 25 bps reduction in July, with a further two quarter point reductions priced in by year-end. "I think it's more likely than not that we're going to see 75 bps cut this year. And the market has some potential readjustment for less rate cuts than is being priced in," McMillan said. NVIDIA AWAITED Investors are also eyeing the latest earnings from AI powerhouse Nvidia , which reports on Wednesday to sky-high market expectations. The stock is up some 160% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 18% year-to-date gain. "The big thing this week is really Nvidia more than any of the macro stuff. I think folks are really focused on Nvidia because that's been kind of the bellwether for the risk-on trade this year," McMillan added. Also in focus are U.S personal consumption and core inflation data due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. The Japanese yen rose to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, while the greenback rallied from an eight-month low. The dollar dropped to a three-week low against the yen of 143.45 but pared losses and was last slightly up 0.08% at 144.5. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.18% at 100.84, with the euro down 0.21% at $1.1167. Gold prices firmed, nearing the recent record high on safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 0.14% to $2,513.79 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.28% to $2,515.50 an ounce. (Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by Mark Potter, Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)

Asian stocks slide as geopolitical worries sap confidence

Also supporting crude prices was Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields, which halted production and exports. [O/R] Investors are on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the AI chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.36% lower on Tuesday, inching away from the one-month high it touched in the previous session. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.16%, while Chinese stocks were also on the back foot. China's blue stock index CSI300 fell 0.28% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 1% lower in early trading, dragged by lacklustre earnings from Temu-parent PDD Holdings due to lower consumer spending. Also weighing on sentiment was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China. In an eagerly awaited speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts, putting the focus on the Fed's September meeting. "With the Fed now firmly in the driver's seat, the markets will be on an intense data watch," said Gary Dugan, CEO of the Global CIO Office. Investor focus will be on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index - Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - due to be released on Friday and then the August payrolls report next week. Markets are fully priced for a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next month, with 100 bps of easing anticipated in the next three meetings of the year. Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore, said Powell did not clarify the size of the Fed's upcoming rate cuts noting it "will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." "We continue to see the Fed making two 25 bps rate cuts this year to the benefit of risk assets. We think a 50bps cut next month is only likely if the payrolls report shows another jump in unemployment." The yen was a shade lower at 144.67 per dollar, giving up some of its safe haven gains from the previous session which saw it rise to a three-week high of 143.45 per dollar. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was last at 100.84, close to a 13-month low of 100.53 it touched in the previous session. Oil prices took a breather in early trading on Tuesday after rising 3% in the previous session due to supply concerns in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East and production cuts in Libya. Brent crude futures were 0.45% lower at $81.06 a barrel, but not far from the two week high of $81.58 it touched on Monday. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $77.01 a barrel but remained close to a one-week high of $77.60 it touched overnight. Gold prices eased to $2,511 per ounce on Tuesday just shy of the record high of $2,531.60 reached on Aug. 20. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Stocks edge higher, crude prices jump on supply concerns over Mideast, Libya

Israel and Hezbollah traded rocket salvos and airstrikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible oil supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Crude prices were also buoyed by Libya's eastern-based government announcement of the closure of all oil fields on Monday, which halted production and exports. Both Brent and U.S. crude prices rose more than 3%, with Brent trading up 3.11% to $81.48 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate adding 3.59% to $77.52 per barrel. In a highly-anticipated speech to the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. Also speaking at Jackson Hole, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane struck a more cautious note at the weekend, saying the central bank was making "good progress" in cutting euro zone inflation back to its 2% target, but success was not yet assured. "Comparing the Fed to the ECB, the Fed is more focused on the labour market and whether it has tightened too much," said David Kohl, chief economist at Julius Baer in Frankfurt. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 0.7 basis points to 3.814%. The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 0.8 basis points to 3.921%. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of a 50 bps move. The market also has 103 bps of easing priced in for this year and another 122 bps in 2025. The ECB has already started cutting rates, with a 25 bps reduction in July, with a further two quarter point reductions priced in by year-end. In share markets, focus was already turning to the latest earnings from AI star Nvidia, which reports on Wednesday to sky-high market expectations. The stock is up some 160% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 18% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion-plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell-the-news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for the third quarter of $33 billion or above, he added. Also in focus are U.S personal consumption and core inflation data due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. The dollar fell to a three-week low at 143.45 yen. It was last down around 0.03% at 144.32 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro edged down 0.28% to $1.1159, but remained just off a 13-month top. The British pound sterling weakened 0.14% at $1.319. Gold prices firmed, nearing the recent record high on safe-haven demand. Spot gold added 0.27% to $2,517.22 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.29% to $2,515.70 an ounce. (Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by Mark Potter and Nick Zieminski)

Asia shares hesitate and dollar dips; oil gains

SYDNEY: Major share markets turned hesitant in Asia on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields were on the wane ahead of inflation data that investors hope will pave the way for rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Oil prices climbed 0.7% after Israel and Hezbollah traded rocket salvos and air strikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Brent rose 51 cents to $79.52 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 50 cents to $75.33 per barrel. Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for the third quarter of $33 billion or above, he added. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both near flat in slow trade. EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3%, while FTSE futures were closed for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.6%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea fell 0.2%. Chinese blue chips lost 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen has jumped on a broadly weaker dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." LOTS OF CUTS COMING Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.89%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. The dollar slipped a further 0.2% to 144.14 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1187 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8474 per dollar. A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,514 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asia shares edge up and dollar down; oil gains

SYDNEY: Asian shares crept cautiously higher on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields were on the wane ahead of inflation data that investors hope will pave the way for rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Oil prices climbed 0.8% after Israel and Hezabollah traded rocket salvos and air strikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Brent rose 55 cents to $79.57 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 56 cents to $75.39 per barrel. Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for Q3 of $33 billion or above, he added. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady after starting a shade lower. EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.2%, while FTSE futures were closed for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.8%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea was barely changed. Chinese blue chips were also near flat. Japan's Nikkei lost 1.0% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen has jumped on a broadly weaker dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised that the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." LOTS OF CUTS COMING Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.91%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. The dollar slipped a further 0.5% to 143.64 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1191 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8461 per dollar. A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,514 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asia shares hesitate and dollar dips; oil gains

SYDNEY - Major share markets turned hesitant in Asia on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields were on the wane ahead of inflation data that investors hope will pave the way for rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Oil prices climbed 0.7% after Israel and Hezbollah traded rocket salvos and air strikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Brent rose 51 cents to $79.52 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 50 cents to $75.33 per barrel. [O/R] Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for the third quarter of $33 billion or above, he added. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both near flat in slow trade. [.N] EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3%, while FTSE futures were closed for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.6%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea fell 0.2%. Chinese blue chips lost 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen has jumped on a broadly weaker dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." LOTS OF CUTS COMING Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.89%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. [US/] The dollar slipped a further 0.2% to 144.14 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1187 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8474 per dollar. [USD/] A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,514 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. [GOL/]

Asia shares hesitate and dollar dips; oil gains

Brent rose 51 cents to $79.52 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 50 cents to $75.33 per barrel. [O/R] Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for the third quarter of $33 billion or above, he added. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both near flat in slow trade. [.N] EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.3%, while FTSE futures were closed for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.6%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea fell 0.2%. Chinese blue chips lost 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen has jumped on a broadly weaker dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.89%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. [US/] The dollar slipped a further 0.2% to 144.14 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1187 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8474 per dollar. [USD/] A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,514 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. [GOL/] (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asia shares edge up before inflation tests, oil gains

Asian shares edged higher with investors looking forward to inflation data that could prompt rate cuts in the US and Europe. Oil prices rose amid Middle East tensions. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is eagerly awaited. Federal Reserve Chair Powell hinted at potential rate cuts to mitigate employment risks.Asian shares crept cautiously higher on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields were on the wane ahead of inflation data that investors hope will pave the way for rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Oil prices climbed 0.7% after Israel and Hezabollah traded rocket salvos and air strikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Brent rose 51 cents to $79.53 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 50 cents to $75.33 per barrel. [O/R] Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for Q3 of $33 billion or above, he added. Early Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were down 0.1%. [.N] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.4%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.7% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen had jumped on a broadly weaker dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised that the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." LOTS OF CUTS COMING Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 36% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.91%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. [US/] The dollar slipped a further 0.3% to 143.97 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1190 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8472 per dollar. [USD/] A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,516 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60.

Asia shares edge up and dollar down; oil gains

Brent rose 55 cents to $79.57 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 56 cents to $75.39 per barrel. [O/R] Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for Q3 of $33 billion or above, he added. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady after starting a shade lower. [.N] EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.2%, while FTSE futures were closed for a holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.8%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea was barely changed. Chinese blue chips were also near flat. Japan's Nikkei lost 1.0% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen has jumped on a broadly weaker dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised that the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 38% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.91%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. [US/] The dollar slipped a further 0.5% to 143.64 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1191 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8461 per dollar. [USD/] A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,514 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. [GOL/] (Reporting by Wayne Cole;Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Asia shares edge up before inflation tests, oil gains

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares crept cautiously higher on Monday, while the dollar and bond yields were on the wane ahead of inflation data that investors hope will pave the way for rate cuts in the United States and Europe. Oil prices climbed 0.7% after Israel and Hezabollah traded rocket salvos and air strikes on Sunday, stirring worries about possible supply disruptions if the conflict escalated. Brent rose 51 cents to $79.53 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 50 cents to $75.33 per barrel. [O/R] Investors are also anxiously awaiting earnings from AI darling Nvidia on Wednesday to see if it can match the market's uber-high expectations. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500's 17% year-to-date gain. "Nvidia will beat consensus expectations, they always do, but investors are so ingrained in seeing revenue come in $2 billion plus above the analysts' consensus or we could easily see a sell the news event," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. That means Nvidia would have to report sales of $30 billion or more and guidance for Q3 of $33 billion or above, he added. Early Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were down 0.1%. [.N] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.4%, after rising 1.1% last week, while South Korea rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.7% as a stronger yen pressured exporter stocks. The yen had jumped on a broadly weaker dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time had come to start easing policy and emphasised that the central bank did not want to see further weakening in the labour market. "Importantly there was a notable absence of caveats such as 'gradual/gradualism' as used by other Fed officials," noted Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB. "The jobs report on September 6 is clearly important as Powell is willing to cut rates to ward off downside risks to employment and to maintain a strong labour market," he added. "In summary, Powell has increased the chances of a soft landing." LOTS OF CUTS COMING Figures on U.S personal consumption and core inflation are due on Friday, along with a flash reading on European Union inflation. Analysts generally assume the data will be benign enough to allow for rate cuts in September. Fed fund futures are fully priced for a quarter-point cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, and imply a 36% chance of an outsized move of 50 basis points. The market also has 103 basis points of easing priced in for this year and another 122 basis points in 2025. "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver an initial string of three consecutive 25bp cuts at the September, November, and December meetings," said analysts at Goldman Sachs. "Our forecast rests on our assumption that the August employment report will be stronger than the July report, but we continue to think that if instead the August report is weaker than we expect, then a 50bp cut would be likely." Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank next month, and a total 163 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Yields on two-year Treasuries stood at 3.91%, having fallen almost 10 basis points on Friday, while 10-year yields held at 3.79%. [US/] The dollar slipped a further 0.3% to 143.97 yen, having fallen 1.3% on Friday. The euro was up at $1.1190 and just off a 13-month top, while the Swiss franc held firm at 0.8472 per dollar. [USD/] A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to underpin gold at $2,516 an ounce, and near an all-time peak of $2,531.60. [GOL/] (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)