IBM's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Driven by AI Mainframe Sales, but Software Segment Disappoints

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

12 Sources

IBM reports strong Q2 2025 earnings, beating revenue and profit estimates, largely due to AI-focused mainframe sales. However, lower-than-expected software segment performance causes stock price to fall.

IBM's Q2 2025 Financial Performance

IBM reported strong second-quarter results for 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations in several key areas. The company's revenue reached $16.98 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, beating the analysts' average estimate of $16.59 billion 12. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $2.80, also exceeding the projected $2.64 3.

Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

AI-Driven Mainframe Revival

A significant contributor to IBM's success this quarter was the renewed demand for its mainframe business, particularly driven by artificial intelligence (AI) upgrades. The company's latest mainframe, powered by chips specialized for AI applications, was launched in June 1. This new offering, the IBM z17, features advanced processors geared towards running generative AI workloads and financial applications 3.

Source: Fast Company

Source: Fast Company

The infrastructure segment, which houses the mainframe business, reported revenue of $4.14 billion, surpassing estimates of $3.81 billion 12. This performance underscores the growing focus of clients on investing in AI infrastructure expansion, as businesses prioritize spending on this booming technology amidst macroeconomic uncertainties 1.

AI Book of Business Growth

IBM's commitment to AI is further reflected in its "AI book of business," which combines bookings and actual sales across various AI products and services. This metric grew to $7.5 billion in the second quarter, a $1.5 billion increase from the previous quarter 13. The company has been making significant efforts to attract AI developers, including the recent launch of watsonx Orchestrate, a service enabling businesses to build autonomous AI agents 3.

Consulting Business Revival

After five consecutive quarters of revenue declines, IBM's consulting business showed signs of recovery, growing 3% to reach $5.31 billion 13. This growth is attributed to businesses increasingly turning to IBM for expertise in integrating AI products and navigating the rapidly evolving economic environment 1.

Software Segment Disappointment

Despite the overall positive results, IBM's software segment performance fell short of expectations. The segment reported sales of $7.39 billion, missing the estimated $7.41 billion 2. This underperformance in the traditionally strong software segment led to a significant drop in IBM's stock price, with shares falling by 5% in extended trading 24.

Market Reaction and Future Outlook

Source: The Motley Fool

Source: The Motley Fool

The market's response to IBM's earnings report was mixed. While the company beat overall revenue and profit estimates, the disappointment in the software segment caused investor concern. IBM's stock price fell by more than 8% in midday trading on Thursday, despite the company raising its full-year outlook for free cash flow to exceed $13.5 billion 45.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna addressed the software segment's performance, explaining that many clients have "reprioritized their spend to hardware" due to the focus on AI infrastructure expansion 3. The company remains optimistic about its position in the AI market, with Krishna stating, "IBM remains highly differentiated in the market because of our deep innovation and domain expertise, both crucial in helping clients deploy and scale AI" 4.

As IBM continues to navigate the dynamic AI landscape, the company is also exploring potential growth through acquisitions. CFO Jim Kavanaugh expressed optimism about the current regulatory environment, suggesting that mergers and acquisitions that make sense could be approved in reasonable timeframes 35.

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