Japanese Toilet Maker Toto Emerges as Hidden AI Semiconductor Play, Shares Surge 40%

Japanese toilet maker 'the most undervalued and overlooked AI memory beneficiary,' investors claim -- shares up nearly 40% in first two months of 2026

It sounds like clickbait, but the company's stocks have risen nearly 40% in 2026 alone. Despite appearances, Japan's Toto isn't just the name behind heated bidets and "Washlet" throne technology anymore. According to a report from Financial Times, the UK-based activist investor Palliser Capital just surfaced in its shareholder registry with a letter to the board saying that the company's advanced ceramics business is being wildly undervalued by the market. In other words, a loo maker might now be sitting at the crossroads of AI infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains. Now, Palliser is explicitly calling Toto "the most undervalued and overlooked AI memory beneficiary" in its letter -- which is activist language, not impartial research. Still, it's grounded in a real here-and-now connection between AI investment trends and semiconductor supply chains. See, Toto has been making precision ceramic parts for decades. These aren't bathroom fixtures; they're highly engineered components used in semiconductor manufacturing, helping hold silicon wafers steady during processing steps like etch and deposition. These materials have to withstand thermal stress, minimize contamination, and be engineered to extremely tight tolerances. Toto's advanced ceramics catalog demonstrates the company's expertise here; it includes air bearings, bonding capillaries, and structures designed for high-precision semiconductor tools. Investors are increasingly noting that this isn't some silly side hustle. According to recent reporting, Toto's advanced ceramics are contributing to profits on the order of roughly 40 percent of operating income, even as the company remains globally known for toilets. We don't have to tell you that AI data centers have massive appetites for memory, nor do we likely need to remind you of the ongoing RAM-pocalypse that's put real upward pressure on memory prices and wafer fab utilization in the past year. The upshot, at least for Toto, is more demand for the tools and components that go into making those chips. Palliser is pushing Toto to do a better job explaining this segment to the market, streamline capital allocation, and use its ~¥76 billion ($496 million US) net cash more strategically, including a potential expansion of its ceramics business ahead of the competition. Goldman Sachs and other research desks have talked up the profit potential tied to these components, even lifting ratings in the past year based on the assumption of a rebounding NAND market. Toto's shares have already seen strong moves, with gains of nearly 40% to date this year tied to both analyst coverage and activist newsflow. In short, traders aren't just laughing at the idea of bidding up a bidet maker because "AI." Instead, they're following revenue, profit, and end-market demand signals that, as strange as it sounds, track with beefed-up capital spend on memory fabs to attempt to meet the insane demand we're seeing now. That said, claims of a five-year technological moat largely come from Palliser's pitch to shareholders. It's a bullish thesis, not an independent guarantee, and Palliser has a vested interest in that claim being accurate. Also, while electrostatic chucks absolutely play a role in advanced, low-temperature etch processes, the idea that this will drive a measurable growth surge is arguably still more "industry narrative" than something that's necessarily clear when looking at public fab spending data. All of the major memory manufacturers have been highly reluctant to commit to large production expansions, citing an unwillingness to be stuck with a glut of stock if the market turns abruptly (as it may well do, given well-founded fears of an AI 'bubble'.) Toto's journey from Washlet ad campaigns to semiconductor materials speaks to the idea that AI is reshaping how investors think about supply chains. It's not just Nvidia and AMD; it's the materials and components that enable chip production. In Japan, you're seeing this theme elsewhere, too; other traditional manufacturers, from seasoning companies like Ajinomoto (making materials for chip substrates) to cosmetics companies producing wafer cleaning agents, are being reevaluated through the AI lens. Let's hope these companies don't forget their roots lest the consequences of an AI market crash take out our toilet vendors, too.

Investor says toilet maker Toto is an overlooked AI play

Palliser Capital says Toto is sitting on hidden semiconductor value - and wants the company to lift the lid The AI hype cycle has officially reached the toilet, with a Japanese bathroom giant suddenly being pitched as a serious tech play. Activist investor Palliser Capital has taken aim at Japanese loo legend Toto, urging the firm to make more noise about its little-known chip components business and arguing the maker of the "Washlet" - described by the company as "the original shower toilet" - is quietly sitting on a flush of value tied to the AI boom. In a statement to The Register, Palliser confirmed it had taken a stake in Toto but didn't comment on specifics, beyond saying it's a "top 20 shareholder." In a newly published presentation, the investment firm called Toto "the most undervalued and overlooked AI memory beneficiary," saying the company has evolved into a "strategically critical semiconductor materials innovator and supplier." The UK-based fund says the company's advanced ceramics arm produces electrostatic chucks used in cryogenic etching tools for 3D NAND manufacturing - niche but essential kit that helps hold silicon wafers steady. The ceramics are designed to remain stable at extremely low temperatures, helping to clamp wafers in place as memory chips become increasingly layered and finicky. Palliser argues the business is central to next-generation chip production and says the segment now contributes more than half of operating profit, underscoring how much of Toto's real value sits far from the bathroom showroom. With AI infrastructure spending still in full froth, it seems anything with even a whiff of exposure to memory chips is being hauled into the spotlight. Palliser reckons Toto's valuation gap is largely down to investors not fully appreciating what's going on behind the bathroom door, putting the disconnect at about ¥554 billion ($3.6 billion). The fund says fixing disclosure, tightening capital allocation, and improving capital efficiency could unlock "well over 55 percent upside" for shareholders - a pitch that essentially boils down to telling the market there's more to this outfit than heated toilet seats. Palliser says the factors behind the valuation gap are "readily solvable" if the company leans harder into the story and backs the business appropriately. When the market starts pitching a toilet maker as an AI infrastructure bet, you can't help but wonder whether the hype has finally gone fully down the drain - or whether investors are just determined to squeeze every last drop out of the boom before someone eventually pulls the chain. ®