Big Tech AI spending faces investor demand test as Meta soars and Microsoft stumbles

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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Meta's stock jumped 9% after reporting 24% revenue growth fueled by AI-enhanced ad targeting, while Microsoft dropped 10% despite massive AI investments. The contrasting market reactions reveal a critical shift: investors will tolerate record AI spending only when companies deliver strong financial returns, marking a turning point in Wall Street's patience three years after ChatGPT's launch.

Wall Street Draws Line on AI Spending Without Results

Big Tech earnings this week delivered a stark message about investor demand for payoffs from heavy AI spending. Meta Platforms saw its stock surge more than 9%, while Microsoft tumbled 10%, creating a clear dividing line in how markets now evaluate AI infrastructure investment

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. The contrast highlights a fundamental shift in Wall Street's demand for tangible financial returns, three years after ChatGPT ignited the AI boom.

Source: PYMNTS

Source: PYMNTS

"The market appears to be questioning whether these massive capital expenditure hikes will generate sufficient returns," said Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com. "This reflects a growing divide between tech companies' AI ambitions and Wall Street's patience for open-ended investment cycles"

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Meta's AI-Driven Revenue Growth Wins Investor Approval

Mark Zuckerberg secured Wall Street's green light to continue pouring money into AI after Meta reported 24% year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by AI-enhanced online ad targeting

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. The Facebook owner forecast even stronger revenue growth of up to 33% in the current quarter, demonstrating that AI investments are delivering measurable business impact

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Source: PYMNTS

Source: PYMNTS

Meta now plans capital expenditures between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, nearly double the $72 billion spent in 2025

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. The company attributed this jump to "increased investment to support our Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business"

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"Meta's headline numbers are a really interesting reflection of the market's attitude toward spending in AI space," said John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. "All else equal, the market would typically be concerned, but they have a big revenue guide for the first quarter"

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Microsoft Faces Investor Skepticism Over OpenAI Concentration

Microsoft confronted growing investor pressure to justify its soaring AI spending after Azure cloud computing growth came in only slightly above expectations

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. The disclosure that OpenAI accounts for 45% of Microsoft's $625 billion backlog raised concentration concerns, with some $280 billion potentially at risk as the unprofitable startup faces mounting competitive pressure

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OpenAI issued an internal "code-red" in December after Google's Gemini 3 launched to positive reviews, and the company is playing catch-up in AI coding to Anthropic's Claude Code, which has reached an annualized run rate of more than $1 billion

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"Microsoft's deep ties to OpenAI underpin its leadership in enterprise AI, but they also introduce concentration risk," said Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro

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Zuckerberg Teases Personal Superintelligence and Agentic Commerce

During Meta's investor call, Zuckerberg outlined plans for major AI rollouts in 2026, highlighting personal superintelligence as a key focus. "In 2025, we rebuilt the foundations of our AI program," Zuckerberg said. "Over the coming months, we're going to start shipping our new models and products... and I expect us to steadily push the frontier over the course of the new year"

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Source: Reuters

Source: Reuters

Zuckerberg emphasized AI-driven commerce as a particular area of focus. "New agentic shopping tools will allow people to find just the right set of products from the businesses in our catalog," he said

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. Meta believes its access to personal data will prove uniquely valuable as AI agents become more sophisticated. "A lot of what makes agents valuable is the unique context that they can see, and we believe that Meta will be able to provide a uniquely personal experience"

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Meta acquired general-purpose agent developer Manus in December, signaling its commitment to building frontier models capable of complex tasks

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Capacity Constraints Drive Infrastructure Buildouts

Meta finance chief Susan Li told analysts the company remains "capacity constrained," requiring more computing power to improve its core ad revenue business while providing AI teams resources to create advanced models

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. "Our teams have done a great job ramping up our infrastructure through the course of 2025, but demands for compute resources across the company have increased even faster than our supply," Li said

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Microsoft faced similar constraints. Finance chief Amy Hood noted that if the company had allocated all newly online graphics processing units to Azure instead of internal development, cloud computing growth "would have been over 40%" rather than the reported 37% to 38%

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Market Valuation Shifts Reflect Profitability Concerns

Both Microsoft and Meta Platforms have suffered significant market valuation drops as investor skepticism grows. Microsoft's valuation fell from nearly 20 times expected EBITDA to 16 times, while Meta dropped from 16 times to 12 times

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. When Zuckerberg pledged to divert a "notably larger" sum to capital expenditures in October, Meta's shares tumbled 11%

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Tesla also joined the heavy spending trend, planning to double outlay to more than $20 billion in 2026 as it pivots to AI, humanoid robots, and autonomous vehicles

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Five technology giants are now on track to borrow $140 billion annually for the next three years to fund data centers and AI infrastructure, according to Bank of America analysts

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. Meta has tapped private credit, signing a $27 billion deal with Blue Owl Capital

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