Morgan Stanley Upgrades Hewlett Packard Enterprise on AI and Networking Potential

2 Sources

Morgan Stanley upgrades Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) to overweight, citing potential growth in AI and networking sectors following the Juniper Networks acquisition.

Morgan Stanley's Bullish Stance on HPE

Morgan Stanley has taken a bullish position on Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), upgrading the tech services company to overweight from equal weight and raising its price target to $28 from $22 12. This upgrade comes on the heels of HPE's recent acquisition of Juniper Networks and growing optimism about the company's potential in the artificial intelligence (AI) and networking sectors.

Acquisition Impact and AI Potential

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

The closure of HPE's acquisition of Juniper Networks in early July has been a significant catalyst for the company's recent stock performance. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring believes that this acquisition will substantially boost HPE's presence in the networking sector and increase its exposure to AI technologies 1. With nearly half of HPE's business now focused on networking, including more AI exposure through Juniper's involvement in xAI clusters, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-related hardware and services.

Financial Projections and Market Expectations

Morgan Stanley's thesis suggests an 18% upside to FY26 Consensus EPS, with earnings per share projected to grow to $2.70-3.00 in FY27 1. The firm expects that as the market better understands HPE's increased focus on networking and AI, the company's valuation multiple could expand beyond its current 8x multiple.

Upcoming Catalysts

Several potential catalysts could drive HPE's stock performance in the near term:

  1. Q3 Results: HPE's third-quarter results, scheduled for September 3, are expected to be a positive catalyst. Morgan Stanley anticipates favorable guidance for the October quarter, which has yet to incorporate the impact of the Juniper Networks acquisition 1.

  2. Analyst Day: The company's analyst day in October is viewed as "the most important upcoming catalyst" by Morgan Stanley. It is expected that HPE will provide longer-term forecasts, helping the market appreciate the company's future earnings and cash flow potential 1.

Industry Trends and Market Position

Morgan Stanley's research indicates "healthy enterprise spending across the board," particularly in AI compute and networking-related products 2. This trend bodes well for HPE, given its strengthened position in these sectors following the Juniper acquisition. The analysts also noted positive inflections in networking growth for the first time in several quarters, further supporting their bullish outlook on HPE.

Market Reaction and Analyst Sentiment

Following the upgrade, HPE's shares jumped about 3% in premarket trading on Thursday 1. However, it's worth noting that Wall Street remains divided on the stock. While Morgan Stanley and some other analysts maintain a bullish view, with 10 out of 20 analysts giving a strong buy or buy rating, the remaining 10 have a hold rating 1.

Broader Tech Hardware Sector Outlook

Morgan Stanley's positive stance on HPE is part of a broader optimism about the tech hardware sector. The firm also increased price targets for other companies in the space, including Dell Technologies and NetApp, indicating a generally positive outlook for enterprise technology spending, particularly in AI and networking-related areas 2.

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