Nvidia Stock Plummets Amid AI Chip Export Concerns and Trump's Tariff Policies

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Nvidia's stock experiences a significant drop due to concerns over AI chip exports to China, potential new export restrictions, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the tech sector.

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Nvidia Stock Tumbles Amidst AI Export Concerns and Economic Uncertainty

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), the leading AI chip manufacturer, has seen its stock price plummet by approximately 27% from its peak, marking its lowest point since September 2024

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. As of March 7, 2025, Nvidia was trading at $111.44, down nearly 5% in recent trading

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. This significant decline has erased over $800 billion in market value, with the company's market capitalization hovering around $3 trillion

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Factors Contributing to the Selloff

Several factors have contributed to Nvidia's stock decline:

  1. AI Chip Export Concerns: Reports suggest that Chinese buyers are bypassing U.S. export regulations to acquire Nvidia's AI chips through neighboring countries

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    . This has raised concerns about potential revenue inflation and the possibility of more stringent export controls

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  2. Trump's Tariff Policies: President Donald Trump's confirmation of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to take effect imminently, has shaken Wall Street

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    . These tariffs are expected to impact the tech sector significantly

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  3. Economic Indicators: The ISM Manufacturing Survey for February indicated potential stagflation, with falling employment and orders but higher prices

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    . This has affected economically sensitive stocks, including semiconductors.

  4. Potential New Restrictions: Mizuho analysts have warned of "significant new China AI and export license restrictions," which could result in a revenue hit of $4 billion to $6 billion for Nvidia in the second half of the year

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Broader Impact on AI and Tech Stocks

The selloff has extended beyond Nvidia, affecting other AI-related stocks:

  • Broadcom (AVGO), set to report earnings soon, has followed Nvidia's downward trend

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  • AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 13%

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  • Nuclear power providers Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) both lost more than 7%

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Industry Outlook and Analyst Perspectives

Despite the current downturn, many analysts remain bullish on Nvidia's long-term prospects:

  • The average price target of 19 analysts covering the stock is about $177, suggesting nearly 50% upside from current levels

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  • Mizuho analysts expect the impacts of headwinds from China and AI chip restrictions to "remain muted"

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  • The demand for Nvidia's new Blackwell chips continues to outpace supply, indicating strong market interest

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Historical Context and Future Expectations

Nvidia has experienced similar selloffs in the past, notably in July 2024 due to fears of slowing AI infrastructure investment

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. However, the stock has historically rebounded from such drawdowns:

  • After the July 2024 dip, Nvidia reached all-time highs in October of that year

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  • The company has seen drawdowns of 50% or more twice in the last decade, in 2018 and 2022, due to various economic and sector-specific factors

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While it's challenging to predict the duration or extent of Nvidia's current downtrend, historical patterns suggest that such selloffs have often presented buying opportunities for investors

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