Nvidia Stock Plummets Amid AI Chip Export Concerns and Trump's Tariff Policies

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Nvidia's stock experiences a significant drop due to concerns over AI chip exports to China, potential new export restrictions, and the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the tech sector.

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Nvidia Stock Tumbles Amidst AI Export Concerns and Economic Uncertainty

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), the leading AI chip manufacturer, has seen its stock price plummet by approximately 27% from its peak, marking its lowest point since September 2024 4. As of March 7, 2025, Nvidia was trading at $111.44, down nearly 5% in recent trading 5. This significant decline has erased over $800 billion in market value, with the company's market capitalization hovering around $3 trillion 4.

Factors Contributing to the Selloff

Several factors have contributed to Nvidia's stock decline:

  1. AI Chip Export Concerns: Reports suggest that Chinese buyers are bypassing U.S. export regulations to acquire Nvidia's AI chips through neighboring countries 1. This has raised concerns about potential revenue inflation and the possibility of more stringent export controls 2.

  2. Trump's Tariff Policies: President Donald Trump's confirmation of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to take effect imminently, has shaken Wall Street 3. These tariffs are expected to impact the tech sector significantly 5.

  3. Economic Indicators: The ISM Manufacturing Survey for February indicated potential stagflation, with falling employment and orders but higher prices 2. This has affected economically sensitive stocks, including semiconductors.

  4. Potential New Restrictions: Mizuho analysts have warned of "significant new China AI and export license restrictions," which could result in a revenue hit of $4 billion to $6 billion for Nvidia in the second half of the year 5.

Broader Impact on AI and Tech Stocks

The selloff has extended beyond Nvidia, affecting other AI-related stocks:

  • Broadcom (AVGO), set to report earnings soon, has followed Nvidia's downward trend 3.
  • AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 13% 3.
  • Nuclear power providers Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) both lost more than 7% 3.

Industry Outlook and Analyst Perspectives

Despite the current downturn, many analysts remain bullish on Nvidia's long-term prospects:

  • The average price target of 19 analysts covering the stock is about $177, suggesting nearly 50% upside from current levels 5.
  • Mizuho analysts expect the impacts of headwinds from China and AI chip restrictions to "remain muted" 5.
  • The demand for Nvidia's new Blackwell chips continues to outpace supply, indicating strong market interest 4.

Historical Context and Future Expectations

Nvidia has experienced similar selloffs in the past, notably in July 2024 due to fears of slowing AI infrastructure investment 4. However, the stock has historically rebounded from such drawdowns:

  • After the July 2024 dip, Nvidia reached all-time highs in October of that year 4.
  • The company has seen drawdowns of 50% or more twice in the last decade, in 2018 and 2022, due to various economic and sector-specific factors 4.

While it's challenging to predict the duration or extent of Nvidia's current downtrend, historical patterns suggest that such selloffs have often presented buying opportunities for investors 4.

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