Palantir's earnings surge signals enterprise AI spending boom amid software sector slump

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Palantir Technologies reported record fourth-quarter earnings with revenue of $1.41 billion, crushing Wall Street expectations and issuing a bullish 2026 revenue forecast of 61% growth. The data analytics company's U.S. commercial segment exploded 137% year-over-year, while its Rule of 40 score hit an unprecedented 127%, demonstrating that enterprises are aggressively adopting AI despite broader software sector concerns.

Palantir Crushes Earnings Expectations with Record AI-Driven Growth

Palantir Technologies delivered a commanding performance in its fourth-quarter earnings report, posting revenue of $1.41 billion that surpassed analyst expectations of $1.33 billion

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. The data analytics company's adjusted earnings per share came in at 25 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 23 cents, while net income climbed to approximately $609 million

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. These strong earnings marked the 10th consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth for Palantir, with total revenue jumping 70% year-over-year

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. Shares surged more than 5% in trading, with the stock jumping 11% in premarket sessions, demonstrating investor confidence in the company's AI-powered trajectory

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Source: Motley Fool

Source: Motley Fool

U.S. Commercial Segment Drives Unprecedented Expansion

The company's U.S. commercial segment emerged as the primary growth engine, with revenue of $507 million surging 137% year-over-year and 28% sequentially

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. This explosive growth in enterprise AI spending signals that organizations are moving beyond experimentation to full-scale AI implementation. Palantir's government business also demonstrated strength, growing 66% year-over-year to $570 million, bolstered by significant contracts including a $448 million deal with the U.S. Navy in December and a software contract worth up to $10 billion with the U.S. Army signed in July

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. The company closed 180 deals worth at least $1 million during the quarter, including 84 worth $5 million and 61 worth $10 million, helping drive total contract value to a record $4.26 billion, up 138% year-over-year

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Revenue Forecast Signals Continued Accelerating AI Demand

Palantir's 2026 revenue forecast of between $7.18 billion and $7.2 billion implies growth of approximately 61%, significantly exceeding Wall Street's 43% estimate

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. For the first quarter, the company guided to revenue of $1.53 billion to $1.54 billion, again surpassing analyst estimates

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. Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh noted that Palantir is "on course to reach $10B in revenue at the fastest growth rate and highest margins perhaps in [software] history, underscoring its status as a clear AI winner"

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. The company's remaining performance obligation of $4.21 billion soared 143%, while its net dollar retention rate hit 139%, indicating existing customers are spending 39% more than the prior year

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Rule of 40 Score Demonstrates Unique Market Position

Palantir achieved a Rule of 40 score of 127% in the fourth quarter, a performance metric that combines revenue growth and operating margin to assess software company health

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. CEO Alex Karp attributed this "incredible" performance to Palantir being the only company "choosing to exclusively focus on scaling the operational leverage made possible by the rapid advancements of AI models"

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Source: Fortune

Source: Fortune

Bank of America analysts highlighted that Palantir is one of only four companies tracked with a Rule of 40 score above 80, alongside major data center chip suppliers Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., and Micron

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. The company's adjusted operating margin reached 57%, well above consensus expectations of 48.3%

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Software Stocks Face Pressure While Palantir Stands Apart

While software stocks have slumped amid concerns that AI will enable companies to create their own bespoke solutions, Palantir's results demonstrate it is "a warning to peers" that "being an 'AI company' needs to come with real results," according to Bank of America analysts

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. The software sector has experienced one of the most severe selloffs on record, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF falling more than 15% between the start of the year and Monday's close

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. However, Palantir's AI Platform and its Ontology system, which models how people, assets, decisions, and processes connect, has positioned the company to capture value as enterprises tackle data sprawl and workflow governance

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. According to Jordi Visser of 22V Research, "Palantir is not fighting the SaaS collapse narrative; it is monetizing the layer that emerges after it"

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Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

Analysts Divided on Valuation Despite Strong Fundamentals

Wall Street analysts remain divided on Palantir, with most praising execution while expressing concern about valuation. UBS maintained a neutral rating with a $180 price target, noting they've "never seen before" a turnaround from 13% growth in Q2 2023 to 70% in Q4 2025, but cited valuation at 94x CY26e free cash flow as a limiting factor

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. Goldman Sachs set a neutral rating with a $182 price target, acknowledging Palantir as "one of only a handful of software companies that is clearly benefiting from AI deployments today" while noting longer-term ecosystem risks as competition matures

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. RBC Capital Markets maintained an underperform rating with a $50 price target, implying 66% downside, while Jefferies held an underperform rating at $70, arguing that "at 39x CY27E rev, multiple downside outweighs fundamental upside"

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. The number of companies mentioning Palantir on their third-quarter earnings calls more than doubled from the prior year, according to Bank of America

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, suggesting growing industry recognition of the company's role in AI implementation.

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