Trump Administration Considers Revising Biden's AI Chip Export Rule

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On Wed, 30 Apr, 12:06 AM UTC

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The Trump administration is contemplating changes to a Biden-era AI chip export rule, potentially replacing the tiered system with a global licensing regime. This move could significantly impact the global distribution of advanced AI chips and strengthen the U.S.'s negotiating power in trade talks.

Trump Administration Considers Revising Biden's AI Chip Export Rule

The Trump administration is reportedly working on changes to a Biden-era rule that regulates global access to advanced AI chips. The Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce in January 2025, is set to take effect on May 15, 2025 12. However, the current administration is considering significant modifications to this rule, which could have far-reaching implications for the global AI industry and international trade relations.

Current Rule Structure

The existing rule divides the world into three tiers:

  1. First tier: 17 countries and Taiwan, with unlimited access to advanced AI chips
  2. Second tier: Approximately 120 countries, subject to caps on AI chip acquisition
  3. Third tier: Countries of concern like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, blocked from accessing these chips 13

Proposed Changes

The Trump administration is weighing several potential changes to the rule:

  1. Elimination of Tiers: Officials are considering discarding the tiered approach in favor of a global licensing regime with government-to-government agreements 12.

  2. Lower Threshold for Licensing: The current rule allows orders under the equivalent of about 1,700 Nvidia H100 chips without requiring a license. The new proposal might lower this threshold to 500 H100 chips 14.

  3. Integration with Trade Strategy: The changes could align with President Trump's broader trade strategy of making deals with individual countries, potentially using access to American-designed chips as leverage in negotiations 12.

Rationale and Implications

The administration's stated goal is to make the rule "stronger but simpler" 1. However, some experts argue that removing the tiers could actually make the rule more complicated. The proposed changes could give the U.S. more control over the distribution of advanced AI chips and strengthen its position in trade negotiations 4.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has expressed interest in including export controls in trade talks, indicating a shift towards using technology access as a bargaining chip in international relations 12.

Industry and Political Reactions

The proposed changes have elicited mixed reactions:

  1. Industry Criticism: Companies like Oracle and Nvidia have been critical of the current rule, arguing that limiting access to U.S. chips could drive countries to seek alternatives from China 13.

  2. Political Opposition: Seven Republican senators have requested the withdrawal of the rule, concerned that it might incentivize buyers, especially in Tier 2 countries, to turn to China's "unregulated cheap substitutes" 12.

  3. Expert Opinion: Ken Glueck, executive vice president at Oracle, expects significant modifications to the rule, noting inconsistencies in the current tier system 13.

As the May 15 deadline approaches, the tech industry and international partners are closely watching for the final decision on these proposed changes. The outcome could significantly reshape the global AI chip market and impact international trade relations, particularly with regards to advanced technology exports 45.

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