Windows 10 End-of-Life, Not AI PCs, Driving 2025 Laptop Market Growth

Your next computer might not be an AI PC -- and might even still run Windows 10

After a stagnant period, the global laptop market is forecast to grow by 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025, however it might not be for the reason you think. Although AI PCs are stealing the headlines, new research from TrendForce suggests commercial upgrade cycles and the October 2025 Windows 10 end-of-life could be the key driving forces. If projections turn out to be accurate, 2025 would see better growth than 2024, which is on track for a 3.9% year-over-year increase in shipments to 174 million units. The report claims high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties have tampered with consumer demand in 2024, but the hope is that reduced political uncertainty following the US presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate more cash flow next year, leading companies that were previously holding off on upgrades to take action. Most prominent is the Windows 10 end-of-service deadline, as the ancient software still somehow accounts for three-fifths (61%) of all installs, which is nearly double Windows 11's 36% market share. Still, the figures are finally heading in the right direction for Microsoft after slow uptake of its flagship AI-packed operating system. On the other end of the scale and despite industry hype, AI-integrated laptops are not yet a major market driver. Currently carrying a 10-15% premium over their non-AI counterparts and offering little in terms of perceivable upgrade given that they're still in their infancy, businesses are failing to see the clear use cases for them. An Intel study also recently found that many of those who have bought into AI-capable PCs are failing to see the benefits due to an initial learning curve. During this year's third quarter, industry tracker Canalys found that AI PCs accounted for one in five new shipments; Windows Copilot+ PCs accounted for more than half (53%) of those. "Despite the positive momentum, significant work must still be done to convince both channel partners and end customers of the benefits of AI-capable PCs," noted Principal Analyst Ishan Dutt, adding how the upcoming Windows 10 transition will lead to potential growth in the consumer and business sectors.

Windows 11 remains the driver of growth in PCs, not AI

There's been a lot of talk about AI PCs this year, but has it actually delivered on its promise? A new analysis from TrendForce says the significant boost in laptop sales in 2024 has more to do with Windows 11 updates than it does with fancy new AI features. "The impact of AI-integrated notebooks on the overall market remains limited for now," the report states. "However, AI features are expected to naturally integrate into notebook specifications as brands gradually incorporate them, resulting in a steady rise in the penetration rates of AI notebooks." Recommended Videos The report doesn't specify what is meant by "AI-integrated notebooks," though it's safe to assume it refers to Copilot+ PCs, which have a more powerful neural processing unit (NPU) onboard that can perform local AI processing. There are a few reasons for this that can speculated on though. First, the TrendForce report states that the consumer market in North America has been dominated by "aggressive promotions" and "entry-level models." Copilot+ PCs, meanwhile, are priced at $999 and up, catering to more premium segments. Those just aren't the types of laptops driving the consumer Windows PC market right now. In order to get people to pay extra for these AI PCs, they really need to be able to sell themselves on how AI capabilities will benefit them -- and that doesn't appear to have happened yet. Most people rely on cloud-based AI tools like ChatGPT or find existing hardware sufficient for tasks like video calls or document editing. For professionals, AI PCs may offer benefits in efficiency for tasks like video editing, but the average user sees limited immediate utility, reducing the perceived need to upgrade now. The privacy controversy and following delays of Recall certainly didn't help the situation either. That was, after all, supposed to be the headlining AI feature of Copilot+ PCs -- and it's only now rolling out, nearly six months later. So, while AI might not have been the big marketing success Microsoft hoped it would be, the bump in PC sales is nice to see regardless. Global notebook shipments are predicted to grow by another 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025. As the the approaching end-of-support for Windows 10 gets even closer, more and more businesses and consumers are going to be compelled to upgrade. The phasing out of Windows 10, however, has emerged as the key motivator for new laptop purchases. Many older systems lack the hardware requirements for Windows 11, such as TPM 2.0, forcing users to replace otherwise functional devices. This has driven significant demand for non-AI laptops compatible with the newer operating system. Businesses and consumers upgrading for compliance or functionality are prioritizing cost-effective models over experimental AI PCs. As AI PCs evolve and the technology matures, their appeal might grow, especially if more software becomes optimized for NPUs and prices decrease. However, the AI push remains a secondary factor compared to the more immediate requirement to transition to Windows 11. This highlights a mismatch between industry innovation and consumer needs, with the latter focused on affordability and essential functionality rather than speculative advancements

AI PCs aren't driving sales -- The need to upgrade from Windows 10 drove 2025 laptop sales

Researchers (via TrendForce) say laptop sales are expected to grow by 4.9% next year, reaching 183 million units globally. Aside from improved political and economic conditions in the U.S., Windows 10's end-of-life will be the primary driver for this increase in sales, especially as commercial entities look to upgrade their devices to stay secure and updated. The report contradicts what some hardware manufacturers say: AI PCs, like Arm-powered laptops, will make a huge push and take a massive market share in the PC industry. TrendFroce highlighted, "The impact of AI-integrated notebooks on the overall market remains limited for now." Since introducing chips with AI capabilities, this has remained true over the past several months. IDC Research said in September that people purchase AI PCs not for their on-device neural processing capabilities but because they're what's available. Even Microsoft's much-touted Copilot+ PC accounted for less than 10% of shipments in the third quarter of 2024. Even so, researchers believe that AI notebooks will have a slow but steady market penetration, especially as manufacturers integrate them into every laptop they offer. increase2024 hasn't been exactly a great year for the laptop market. Although shipments are predicted to make a 3.9% year-on-year until the end of December, reaching 174 million units, the commercial market had limited growth due to global layoffs and political instability. On the other hand, consumer laptop demand has been primarily driven by promotions, driving the sales of entry-level laptops. TrendForce says consumer notebook shipments will cool to 3% next year, but it sees more sales in high-end models offering better margins. This is likely true as Nvidia is poised to launch its RTX 50-series GPUs for desktops and laptops in early 2025. Aside from this, Chromebook sales are also expected to grow by 8%, primarily as Japan launches its GIGA School 2.0 initiative, which aims to provide one laptop per child in the country. However, there is still some uncertainty over the Trump presidency, especially as many fear that his administration will impose tariffs that could stifle demand in the U.S., especially as its East Asian rival still owns about 89% of the global laptop production. While some manufacturers are leaving China for friendlier countries like Vietnam and Mexico, it will take time to set up production and logistics in a new country, so any abrupt policy changes could shock the market, thus changing the forecasted growth of the laptop market.