ASX Set to Rise as Nvidia Surges and Oil Prices Climb

ASX 200 LIVE: ASX to rise, Nvidia surges near 13pc, US oil leaps 5pc

Australian shares are poised to rise. Nvidia surged near 13 per cent higher on a bullish analyst call, Microsoft's AI spending plans and AMD's outlook. All three US benchmarks mostly held their gains after Federal Reserve policymakers further signalled the likelihood of a rate pivot in September. Wall Street's volatility metric tumbled 7.5 per cent. The NYSE Fang + Index, a measure of the megacap techs, leapt 3.4 per cent. The yield on the US 10-year note fell 11 basis points to 4.03 per cent in New York. The probability of a rate cut in September is 100 per cent, according to CME futures trading, with near 15 per cent of traders betting on a more than quarter point pivot. Nvidia rose 12.8 per cent. The world's third-most-valuable company added a single-session record $US329 billion in value. Its stock had tumbled 7 per cent the previous session. JPMorgan issued a bullish call on the company. Oil rose following the assassination of Hamas' political chief in Tehran after Iran's supreme leader vowed revenge on Israel. BCA Research said it upgraded it subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37 per cent. Brent crude was 2.8 per cent higher to $US80.72 a barrel late in New York; US oil rose 5 per cent to $US78.49 a barrel. "The Fed has laid the foundations for a September easing, provided the next two CPI reports give no cause for alarm," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson said. Meta Platform rallied more than 4 per cent after the closing bell. It reported better-than-expected sales for the second quarter, offering evidence that the company's heavy investments in artificial intelligence are helping it sell more targeted and personalised advertisements. Meta tweaked its full-year projections for capital expenditures, setting a new range from $US37 billion to $US40 billion, raising the low end of the range by $US2 billion. Kelly Partners Group is expected to release earnings on Thursday. The PE takeover battle that is like pulling teeth Once a board has decided a takeover isn't about the highest price, it enters the deal-making twilight zone. This one is a doozy. Canva's AI prize Leonardo traded for $320m, dividing VC industry The valuation has been so closely guarded some investors have refused to tell their own backers how much Canva paid for the start-up.

ASX to rise, Nvidia surges higher, Fed statement pending

The probability of a rate cut in September is at 100 per cent, according to CME futures trading. Later this morning, after the closing bell rings at 6am AEST in New York, Meta Platforms is scheduled to report quarterly results. It follows Alphabet last week and Microsoft after the previous close; each result cast a shadow over how fast the billions being invested in AI will drive higher revenue and profits. Stocks in focus The PE takeover battle that is like pulling teeth Once a board has decided a takeover isn't about the highest price, it enters the deal-making twilight zone. This one is a doozy. Canva's AI prize Leonardo traded for $320m, dividing VC industry The valuation has been so closely guarded some investors have refused to tell their own backers how much Canva paid for the start-up. "We expect the Fed to remain on hold, but the market will be looking to see how dovish Powell can be without giving an explicit confirmation of the first cut in September," TD Securities said. The employment cost index, which measures wages and benefits, increased 0.9 per cent in the April-to-June period, after rising by the most in a year at the start of 2024, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 1 per cent rise. Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, said: "Net, net, upward wage pressures on inflation were not so hot and time will tell whether this second quarter cool down is significant and lasting, but the good news for today is that wages and salary increases in private industry are more in line with where Fed officials would like it to be. "Fed chairman Powell has stated before that wages follow inflation more often than the other way around, but wages are starting to be more consistent with what workers saw before the pandemic. In 2019, private industry wages rose 3.0 per cent, and in the last 12 months ending June 2024 wages and salaries are up 4.1 per cent. The economy is gradually returning to normal and Fed officials are hoping inflation will continue to slow. Cooler wages give the green light to Fed rate cuts. Bet on it." Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth: "With the Fed assuming that productivity growth can be sustained at between 1.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent, that means even the current annual rate of wage growth is now just about consistent with sustained 2 per cent price inflation. "Moreover, if wage growth continued at the 3.4 per cent annualised pace in the second quarter, the Fed might quickly pivot to worrying about price inflation undershooting the 2 per cent target, particularly when the decline in private quits reported in the June JOLTS data yesterday points to a slowdown in ECI private wage growth to nearer 3 per cent by year-end." Overseas data: PMIs through the day for Japan, China, Eurozone, Germany, France and US; Bank of England policy decision at 9pm; US weekly jobless claims Other top stories Rex needs a buyer willing to spend big on planes The government is downplaying its interest in a bailout, but may have no choice but to stump up to help keep the regions connected. RBA rate rise off the table as inflation not so bad Investors believe the next move by the RBA will be an interest rate cut rather than a rise, after underlying inflation came in only slightly above forecasts. Super Retail wins last-minute bid to suppress statement of claim The owner of Rebel Sport and Supercheap is defending an action brought by its former head of legal.