Nvidia demands full upfront payment from China for H200 chips as orders exceed 2 million units

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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Nvidia is requiring Chinese customers to pay 100% upfront for H200 AI chips with no refunds or order modifications, even as regulatory approvals remain uncertain. Chinese tech companies have ordered more than 2 million units priced at $27,000 each, far exceeding Nvidia's current inventory of 700,000 chips. Beijing is expected to approve imports this quarter but only for select commercial customers.

Nvidia Imposes Strict Payment Terms for H200 Chips to Chinese Customers

Nvidia now demands full upfront payment from Chinese customers for its H200 chips, marking a significant shift in how the company manages transactions amid geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing

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. Under the new terms, buyers in China must pay 100% of the order value at placement with no option for refunds or configuration changes, even if the Chinese government ultimately blocks imports

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. While some customers may substitute cash with commercial insurance or asset collateral in limited cases, these conditions are far stricter than Nvidia's earlier policies for the region, which sometimes allowed partial deposits

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Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

This approach reflects Nvidia's attempt to hedge against the substantial risks it has already faced in the Chinese market. The company suffered a $10.5 billion revenue hit across the first half of its 2026 fiscal year when the Trump administration initially moved to block H20 accelerator sales, forcing Nvidia to write down $5.5 billion worth of inventory

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. The chipmaker declined to comment on the new payment requirements.

High Demand for GPUs Despite Regulatory Uncertainty

Despite the stringent terms and uncertain regulatory approvals, demand for H200 AI chips remains exceptionally robust in China. Chinese technology companies have placed orders for more than 2 million H200 processors, with each unit priced at roughly $27,000

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. This staggering demand far exceeds Nvidia's available inventory of around 700,000 units, prompting the company to ramp up production and approach TSMC about allocating additional manufacturing capacity

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Source: Tom's Hardware

Source: Tom's Hardware

Major Chinese tech giants are leading the charge. ByteDance and Alibaba have each expressed interest in ordering more than 200,000 units of the H200, according to sources familiar with the matter

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. ByteDance alone reportedly plans to spend about $14 billion on these AI accelerators in 2026

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. The enthusiasm stems from the H200's performance advantage—it boasts roughly 6x the capability of the H20 chip—making it among the most potent GPUs available in the region despite being a generation behind Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture

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Beijing Expected to Approve Select H200 Imports This Quarter

Chinese officials are preparing to allow local companies to purchase H200 chips from Nvidia for select commercial use as soon as this quarter, according to people familiar with the situation

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. However, Beijing plans to impose significant restrictions on who can acquire these AI chips. The H200 will be barred from the military, sensitive government agencies, critical infrastructure operators, and state-owned enterprises due to security concerns

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. Organizations in these categories that still wish to use the component will have their applications reviewed on a case-by-case basis.

Adding another layer of complexity, Beijing has told some Chinese tech companies to temporarily pause their H200 purchases while regulators determine how many domestically produced semiconductors must be bought alongside each imported chip

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. This reflects the central government's ongoing struggle to balance supporting its domestic chip industry while not stunting AI development. Despite these directives, several server manufacturers have already placed non-refundable orders with Nvidia, and the company is reportedly preparing a shipment of 82,000 GPUs expected to arrive by mid-February 2026

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

Geopolitical Tensions Shape US Export Restrictions and Trade Relations

The H200 situation unfolds against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical risk and shifting US export restrictions. In early December, President Donald Trump reversed a Biden-era ban and granted Nvidia permission to ship H200 chips to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge on resulting revenue

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. This marked a dramatic policy shift, though more advanced processors like Blackwell and Rubin remain restricted on national security grounds.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized the strategic importance of China, previously stating that it could represent a $50 billion annual market if the company were able to sell its best products there

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. The restrictions have driven Nvidia's market share in China from a 95% peak to zero, according to Huang, allowing domestic rivals like Huawei Technologies and Cambricon Technologies to thrive and sharply increase production in 2026.

Production Challenges and Market Implications for AI Accelerators

Nvidia plans to fulfill initial Chinese H200 orders from existing stock, with first deliveries expected before the Lunar New Year in mid-February. To meet the remaining demand of 1.3 million units or more, the company must allocate pre-paid production capacity from other products and manufacture additional silicon using TSMC's CoWoS-S packaging technology—a process that takes over three months

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. This means additional H200 units will only reach Chinese clients sometime in Q2 at the earliest.

Reramping production of these older-generation chips carries inherent risks for Nvidia. With Blackwell and the newly unveiled Rubin GPUs now available, the market for H200s outside China has never been smaller

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. If trade relations between the US and China were to sour again, Nvidia could find itself with a glut of outdated semiconductors. The company is carefully balancing strong demand against political risk in both countries—a tightrope walk that will define its access to the world's largest semiconductor market in the months ahead.

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