IBM shares plunge 13% as Anthropic's AI tool threatens decades-old COBOL modernization business

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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IBM experienced its worst single-day stock decline since 2000, dropping 13% and losing nearly $30 billion in market value after AI startup Anthropic announced its Claude Code tool can automate COBOL modernization. The announcement sparked fears that AI could disrupt IBM's lucrative mainframe consulting business, which has long relied on labor-intensive legacy code updates for banks, insurers, and government agencies.

IBM Stock Crash Marks Worst Day Since 2000

IBM shares plummeted 13% on Monday, marking the company's steepest single-day drop since October 18, 2000, and erasing approximately $30 billion in market value

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. The dramatic decline positions IBM as the latest casualty in a broader wave of AI disruption risk sweeping through software stocks, with the company now down 27% in February alone—on track for its biggest one-month percentage decline since at least 1968

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. The IBM stock crash came immediately after AI startup Anthropic published a blog post detailing how its Anthropic Claude Code tool can accelerate COBOL modernization, a capability that rattled investors who see it as a direct threat to IBM's profitable mainframe consulting business.

Source: ET

Source: ET

Anthropic Claude Code Promises Faster Legacy Code Modernization

The trigger for the selloff was Anthropic's announcement that its Claude Code platform can "automate the exploration and analysis phases that consume most of the effort in COBOL modernization"

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. Anthropic emphasized that "modernizing a COBOL system once required armies of consultants spending years mapping workflows," but AI tools can now compress these timelines from years to quarters

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. The programming language COBOL, developed in the 1950s, continues to power critical infrastructure across banking, insurance, and government sectors, with an estimated 95% of ATM transactions in the U.S. running on COBOL systems

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. Hundreds of billions of lines of COBOL code remain in production daily, yet the number of COBOL-proficient programmers shrinks annually, creating both urgency and opportunity for AI-driven solutions.

Source: CXOToday

Source: CXOToday

IBM Mainframes Face Threat Despite Recent Revenue Gains

A significant portion of IBM's business remains tied to IBM mainframes, the massive customer-owned servers that run applications on COBOL and serve customers with high reliability needs in finance and government

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. Ironically, IBM reported its highest mainframe revenue in 20 years just last month, with CEO Arvind Krishna attributing part of that success to the company's own watsonx Code Assistant for Z, an AI tool for code conversion that IBM promoted in 2023

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. Krishna also noted that IBM mainframes still offer the lowest operating cost for certain workloads. However, investors now worry that if AI significantly reduces the time and cost required for legacy systems updates, it could reshape enterprise IT spending patterns and threaten IBM's lucrative consulting revenue streams from multi-year mainframe migration projects involving large teams of consultants

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Legacy Technology Modernization Becomes AI Battleground

The concept of using AI for refactoring legacy code is not entirely new to the technical community. Just last week, Infosys chairman Nandan Nilekani stated that the rise of AI has made the cost of rewriting legacy apps affordable and such moves imperative

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. Recent years have seen mainframe migration initiatives from AWS, Microsoft, IBM spin-out Kyndryl, and NTT, while the UK government bemoaned the substantial bills it pays to maintain creaky COBOL code

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. Anthropic's post suggests that "AI can assess which components are safe to move and which need careful handling," with areas of accumulated technical debt getting documented before they become migration surprises

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. The blog post claims Claude Code can map dependencies across thousands of lines of code and identify risks "that would take human analysts months to surface"

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Broader Software Stocks Feel AI Disruption Pressure

The IBM decline occurred within a broader context of software stocks facing mounting pressure from AI-related disruption concerns. Shares of cybersecurity companies including CrowdStrike and Datadog also slumped on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of Anthropic's new security features on the industry

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. A major software ETF is down 27% this year, on track for its biggest one-quarter drop since the financial crisis in 2008

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. Much of the selling stems from concerns about "vibe coding"—using AI to write software code—which investors fear will allow users to create their own applications, diminishing demand for legacy products and weighing on companies' growth prospects, margins, and profitability

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. Companies like Salesforce, Atlassian, Adobe, ServiceNow, and HubSpot have all experienced substantial share price decreases amid speculation that AI will fundamentally alter SaaS business models

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Source: ET

Source: ET

Market Perception Shifts on Automating Software Development

The speed and severity of the market reaction demonstrate how quickly investors are repricing risk around AI capabilities in automating software development. Before the selloff, IBM's market capitalization hovered above $230 billion, meaning the 13% drop erased roughly $30 billion in hours

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. Anthropic's post noted that "legacy code modernization stalled for years because understanding legacy code cost more than rewriting it. AI flips that equation"

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. If AI tools prove effective at scale in compressing consulting timelines, they could create competitive pressure on IBM's services margins, even as IBM itself invests heavily in AI through platforms like watsonx. The incident highlights AI's power to reshape market perception instantly, as one blog post about legacy technology triggered the kind of volatility typically reserved for major earnings misses or strategic pivots.

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