Morgan Stanley Backs Tesla's AI and Robotics Efforts, Reinstating It as Top U.S. Auto Pick

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Tesla shares rise 2% as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reinstates the company as top U.S. auto pick, citing its pivot to AI and robotics despite recent sales challenges.

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Morgan Stanley Reinstates Tesla as Top U.S. Auto Pick

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has reinstated Tesla as the top U.S. auto pick, citing the company's artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics efforts as potential growth drivers. This endorsement comes despite recent challenges in Tesla's core automotive business, including a significant drop in European sales 123.

Tesla's Shift from Automotive to AI and Robotics

Jonas highlighted Tesla's transition from an "automotive pure play to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics" 1. This shift aligns with CEO Elon Musk's recent pivot towards robotaxis and AI development. The analyst believes that the market potential for non-automotive applications of embodied AI is significantly larger and could be adopted more rapidly than autonomous vehicles 4.

Stock Performance and Price Target

Following the announcement, Tesla shares rose by 2% 123. Jonas reaffirmed his $430 price target for Tesla, one of the highest on Wall Street, implying a potential upside of 44-51% from the stock's recent trading price 14. However, Tesla's stock has underperformed the broader U.S. market this year, declining by approximately 27% 12.

Challenges in the Automotive Sector

Tesla faces several challenges in its core automotive business:

  1. European sales fell by 45% in January, while overall EV sales in the region increased by 37% 12.
  2. The company experienced its first annual deliveries drop in 2024 1.
  3. High U.S. borrowing costs and fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD are putting pressure on sales 12.

Future Prospects: AI, Robotics, and Humanoid Robots

Jonas emphasized the potential of Tesla's AI and robotics initiatives:

  1. The Dojo supercomputer could potentially boost Tesla's market value by nearly $600 billion through advancements in robotaxis 12.
  2. The humanoid robot "Optimus" is becoming "serious enough to move the stock," with Jonas estimating that every 1% of the U.S. labor force captured by Optimus could be worth approximately $100 per Tesla share 4.
  3. Tesla showcased its robotaxi concept in October, with Musk promising driverless ride-hailing services in California and Texas this year 12.

Investor Outlook and Potential Risks

While Jonas sees potential for growth in Tesla's AI and robotics ventures, he also acknowledges potential risks:

  1. Deliveries could decline in 2025, which Jonas views as a potential "attractive entry point" for investors 12.
  2. The EV market may face a prolonged "winter," potentially requiring further steps to mitigate near-term losses 4.
  3. Regulatory hurdles and technological limitations could delay large-scale adoption of autonomous vehicles 12.

As Tesla continues its transition towards AI and robotics, investors and analysts will be closely watching the company's ability to execute on these ambitious plans while navigating challenges in its core automotive business.

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