Mukesh Ambani's AGM Speech: AI Dominates, but Investors Seek Dividend Details

Mukesh Ambani used AI 57 times, deep-tech 15 times but investors wanted 2 other words in AGM

In his AGM speech, Mukesh Ambani emphasized AI and deep-tech but did not mention IPOs or listings for Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. Investors had hoped for a 2025 timeline for these monetizations, but RIL shares fell 0.5% as no new target prices were set.While highlighting RIL's makeover into a deep-tech and new-age manufacturing entity, billionaire Mukesh Ambani used the word AI 57 times, deep-tech 15 times in his AGM speech on Thursday but missed mentioning two most important words that investors were looking out for - IPO or listings of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. The biggest catalyst that can trigger a re-rating in RIL shares now is the listing of any of its two consumer-facing businesses. As Ambani gave no visibility on near-term value unlocking events in his AGM speech which ended post-market hours on Thursday, the Nifty stock ended 0.5% lower with none of the major brokerages raising target prices post the much-awaited event in India Inc's calendar. "While RIL's chairman did suggest keeping the promise of doubling RIL's value over 2022 by 2027, it missed on key explicit timelines. Investors were expecting RIL to announce 2025 as a timeline to monetise the digital and retail business - further unlocking value for the stock," said Puneet Gulati of HSBC Securities. The analyst believes that Ambani gave an indication that both businesses will be monetised by 2027, but likely preferred not announcing a 2025 timeline given uncertainty in global markets. Also read | RIL bonus share issue, deep-tech makeover fails to move target prices higher Although clarity on monetisation of stakes in the consumer business was expected by investors ahead of the AGM, Ambani's focus on shareholder value creation remains and was evident in his statement... "we will continue to operate within our prudent financial framework, allocating resources to projects and businesses that deliver superior returns to our shareholders while ensuring our balance sheet remains robust". The theme of this year's AGM was the transformation of RIL into a deep-tech company with advanced manufacturing capabilities. The speech highlighted RIL's use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies, filing multiple patents, and spending on research and development significantly across all business lines. Analysts at BofA Securities said it considers the target to double Jio and Retail revenue/EBITDA in next 3-4 years to be ambitious. "Some of the key drivers behind that would be continued tariff hikes in telcos, new growth drivers like enterprise, Jio AirFiber, continued expansion in retail and maybe potential M&A," said BofA's Sachin Salgaonkar. Macquarie analysts said RIL's AGM commentary doesn't change its view of downside risks to consensus forecast FY26 consolidated EPS of Rs 135-140. While doubling of EBITDA in telecom and retail in up to four years was largely inline with Street estimates, the new energy EBITDA target to be as big as O2C (Oil to Chemicals) in up to 7 years was a key positive surprise. "Assuming global new energy peers 2026e EV/EBITDA and discounting the EBITDA target implies $25bn-$27bn in Enterprise Value, i.e ~25-30% above our base case. However, assuming some India peer multiples of ~28-30x 2026e EV/EBITDA it implies $120bn in EV, ie 2x our current bull case for new energy. Our current investor conversations point to investors assuming only book value, ie. $3-3.5bn EV for new energy in the base case," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. Among global brokerages, Macquarie has the lowest target price of Rs 2,750 while Jefferies is the most bullish at Rs 3,500. Other targets include HSBC's Rs 2,780, BofA Rs 3,445, Goldman Sachs Rs 3,415 and Morgan Stanley Rs 3,416. Also read | Reliance Industries bonus issue: What does free shares mean for 35 lakh shareholders? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Mukesh Ambani used AI 57 times, deep-tech 15 times but investors wanted 2 other words in AGM

While highlighting RIL's makeover into a deep-tech and new-age manufacturing entity, billionaire Mukesh Ambani used the word AI 57 times, deep-tech 15 times in his AGM speech on Thursday but missed mentioning two most important words that investors were looking out for - IPO or listings of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. The biggest catalyst that can trigger a re-rating in RIL shares now is the listing of any of its two consumer-facing businesses. As Ambani gave no visibility on near-term value unlocking events in his AGM speech which ended post-market hours on Thursday, the Nifty stock ended 0.5% lower with none of the major brokerages raising target prices post the much-awaited event in India Inc's calendar. "While RIL's chairman did suggest keeping the promise of doubling RIL's value over 2022 by 2027, it missed on key explicit timelines. Investors were expecting RIL to announce 2025 as a timeline to monetise the digital and retail business - further unlocking value for the stock," said Puneet Gulati of HSBC Securities. The analyst believes that Ambani gave an indication that both businesses will be monetised by 2027, but likely preferred not announcing a 2025 timeline given uncertainty in global markets. Also read | RIL bonus share issue, deep-tech makeover fails to move target prices higher Although clarity on monetisation of stakes in the consumer business was expected by investors ahead of the AGM, Ambani's focus on shareholder value creation remains and was evident in his statement... "we will continue to operate within our prudent financial framework, allocating resources to projects and businesses that deliver superior returns to our shareholders while ensuring our balance sheet remains robust". The theme of this year's AGM was the transformation of RIL into a deep-tech company with advanced manufacturing capabilities. The speech highlighted RIL's use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies, filing multiple patents, and spending on research and development significantly across all business lines. Analysts at BofA Securities said it considers the target to double Jio and Retail revenue/EBITDA in next 3-4 years to be ambitious. "Some of the key drivers behind that would be continued tariff hikes in telcos, new growth drivers like enterprise, Jio AirFiber, continued expansion in retail and maybe potential M&A," said BofA's Sachin Salgaonkar. Macquarie analysts said RIL's AGM commentary doesn't change its view of downside risks to consensus forecast FY26 consolidated EPS of Rs 135-140. While doubling of EBITDA in telecom and retail in up to four years was largely inline with Street estimates, the new energy EBITDA target to be as big as O2C (Oil to Chemicals) in up to 7 years was a key positive surprise. "Assuming global new energy peers 2026e EV/EBITDA and discounting the EBITDA target implies $25bn-$27bn in Enterprise Value, i.e ~25-30% above our base case. However, assuming some India peer multiples of ~28-30x 2026e EV/EBITDA it implies $120bn in EV, ie 2x our current bull case for new energy. Our current investor conversations point to investors assuming only book value, ie. $3-3.5bn EV for new energy in the base case," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. Among global brokerages, Macquarie has the lowest target price of Rs 2,750 while Jefferies is the most bullish at Rs 3,500. Other targets include HSBC's Rs 2,780, BofA Rs 3,445, Goldman Sachs Rs 3,415 and Morgan Stanley Rs 3,416. Also read | Reliance Industries bonus issue: What does free shares mean for 35 lakh shareholders? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)