Nvidia considers expanding H200 production as China demand outpaces current chip output capacity

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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Nvidia is evaluating adding production capacity for its H200 AI chips after orders from Chinese clients exceeded current output levels. The move follows President Trump's decision to allow H200 exports to China with a 25% fee, though Beijing has yet to approve imports. Major Chinese companies including Alibaba and ByteDance are already seeking large orders for the chips, which are six times more powerful than alternatives currently available in China.

Nvidia Evaluates Expanding H200 Production Amid Surging China Demand

Nvidia has informed Chinese clients that it is evaluating adding production capacity for its powerful H200 AI chips after orders exceeded its current output level, according to sources briefed on the matter

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. The robust demand from Chinese clients is so strong that Nvidia is leaning toward increasing H200 chip output, with one source indicating the company is actively considering new capacity additions

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. This development follows a significant U.S. government decision announced by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, which authorized the export of H200 AI chips to China while imposing a 25% export fee on such sales

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Source: TechRadar

Source: TechRadar

An Nvidia spokesperson stated that the company is "managing our supply chain to ensure that licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will have no impact on our ability to supply customers in the United States"

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. Major Chinese companies including Alibaba and ByteDance have already reached out to Nvidia this week about purchasing the H200 and are keen to place large orders

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Chinese Government Approval Remains Uncertain

Despite the strong interest from Chinese companies, uncertainties remain as the Chinese government approval has yet to materialize for any H200 purchases. Chinese officials convened emergency meetings on Wednesday to discuss the matter and will decide whether to allow the chips to be shipped into China

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. During these emergency meetings, there was a proposal to require each H200 purchase to be bundled with a certain ratio of domestic chips, according to sources

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. This reflects Beijing's ongoing efforts to promote its domestic AI chip industry while balancing access to advanced AI hardware.

Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

The timing of Trump's decision is particularly significant as China pushes to strengthen its own AI chip sector. As domestic chip companies have yet to produce products that match the H200, concerns exist that allowing the H200 into China could stymie the domestic AI chip industry

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. Nori Chiou, investment director at White Oak Capital Partners, noted that the H200's "compute performance is approximately 2-3 times that of the most advanced domestically produced accelerators"

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Supply Constraints and Manufacturing Challenges

Very limited quantities of H200 chips are currently in production, as Nvidia focuses on producing its most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin lines

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. Supply of H200 chips has been a major concern for Chinese clients, who have reached out to Nvidia seeking clarity on availability. As part of briefings provided by Nvidia, the company has given guidance on current supply levels, though specific numbers were not disclosed

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The H200, manufactured by TSMC using the Taiwanese firm's 4nm manufacturing process technology, went into mass deployment last year and represents the fastest AI chip in Nvidia's previous Hopper architecture generation

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. For Nvidia, adding new chipmaking capacity presents challenges as the company transitions to Rubin while competing with companies including Alphabet's Google for limited advanced chipmaking capacity from TSMC

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Competitive Landscape and Strategic Implications

Chinese companies' strong demand for the H200 stems from it being easily the most powerful chip they can currently access, approximately six times more powerful than the H20, a downgraded chip from Nvidia tailored for the Chinese market that was released in late 2023

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. The U.S. government decision appears influenced by Huawei's rapid development of its Ascend 910C chips, particularly the CloudMatrix 384 system, which integrates 384 of these accelerators and has been described as capable of delivering 300 petaflops of dense BF16 compute

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Despite China's development of its own AI instruction set through CANN, Nvidia GPUs remain the preferred choice for many AI developers. Huawei has made its CANN software for Ascend GPUs open source, offering multi-layer programming interfaces for AI applications to challenge CUDA's nearly two-decade dominance

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. Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya reaffirmed Nvidia as his top pick, highlighting the company's multi-year demand visibility supported by at least $500 billion in expected sales across 2025-26 for Blackwell, Rubin, and networking products . Chiou observed that "many CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) and enterprise customers aggressively placing large orders and lobbying the government to relax restrictions on a conditional basis," adding that Chinese AI demand exceeds the capacity of local production

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. The decision represents a middle ground balancing national security, global AI competitiveness, and economic interests within the tech ecosystem

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