US Launches Review of Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China as Demand Surges and Production Ramps Up

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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The Trump administration has initiated an inter-agency review that could authorize the first shipments of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% fee attached. The move comes as Chinese companies rush to place orders, prompting Nvidia to consider ramping up production capacity for the powerful processors.

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Nvidia Weighs Ramping Up H200 Production Amid Surging Demand in China

Nvidia is considering increasing H200 production capacity after orders from Chinese companies exceeded current output levels, following the Trump administration's decision to allow advanced AI chip sales to China

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. The chipmaker has briefed Chinese clients about evaluating additional production capacity as demand for these powerful processors proves stronger than anticipated

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. Major Chinese companies, including Alibaba and ByteDance, have already reached out to Nvidia about placing large orders for the H200 chips, which are currently produced in limited quantities as the company focuses on its most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin lines

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US Government Review of Chip Sales Moves Forward

The US administration has launched a formal inter-agency review process that could result in the first shipments of Nvidia's second-most powerful AI chips to China

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. The US Commerce Department, which oversees export policy, has sent license applications for chip shipments to the State, Energy and Defense Departments for review, with those agencies having 30 days to weigh in according to US export regulations

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. The ultimate decision falls to Trump if agency officials disagree. Trump announced earlier this month that he would allow sales of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, with the US government collecting a 25% fee on such sales

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National Security Concerns and Strategic Calculations

The decision to authorize H200 exports has drawn criticism from China hawks across the US political spectrum over concerns the chips would enhance Beijing's military capabilities and erode the US advantage in artificial intelligence

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. However, led by White House AI czar David Sacks, several members of the Trump administration now argue that shipping advanced AI chips to China discourages Chinese competitors like Huawei from redoubling efforts to catch up with Nvidia and AMD's most-advanced chip designs

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. Reports suggest the decision was influenced by Huawei's rapid development of its Ascend 910C chips, particularly the CloudMatrix 384 system, which integrates 384 accelerators and has been described as capable of delivering 300 petaflops of dense BF16 compute

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H200 Performance and Market Positioning

The H200 represents the most powerful chip Chinese companies can currently access, operating at approximately six times the performance of the H20, a downgraded chip from Nvidia tailored for the Chinese market that was released in late 2023

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. The H200 went into mass deployment last year and is the fastest AI chip in Nvidia's previous Hopper generation, manufactured by TSMC using the Taiwanese firm's 4nm manufacturing process technology

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. While the H200 chips are slower than Nvidia's Blackwell chips at many AI tasks, they remain in wide use in the industry and have never been allowed for sale in China until now

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Chinese Government Deliberations and Market Uncertainties

Uncertainties remain as the Chinese government has yet to greenlight any purchase of the H200 chips

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. Chinese officials convened emergency meetings to discuss the matter and decide whether to allow the processors to be shipped into China

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. During these emergency meetings, there was a proposal to require each H200 purchase to be bundled with a certain ratio of domestic chips

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. The Department of Commerce gave Nvidia approval to sell H200 GPUs in China last week, in exchange for the 25% fee on sales of those chips

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Implications for Competitiveness and Production Capacity

For Nvidia, expanding production of the H200 GPUs would allow the company to tap latent demand in a country racing to develop its own homegrown AI chips

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. However, adding new production capacity presents challenges at a time when Nvidia is transitioning to Rubin and competing with companies, including Alphabet's Google, for limited advanced chipmaking capacity from TSMC

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. Competition and national security concerns in the West have hampered the availability of the latest and most powerful hardware for training AI models in China, where companies have resorted to focusing on efficiency over sheer scale

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. Trump emphasized that authorized exports will support American jobs and manufacturing while retaining leverage over advanced AI technology, though Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged uncertainty over whether Chinese customers would fully purchase H200 systems, noting a $5.5 billion revenue shortfall in AI chips earlier in 2025

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