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Morning Bid: U.S. Spotlight back on Nvidia
LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets After weeks of trade and debt anxiety, the spotlight has shifted back to the artificial intelligence theme on Wednesday, as investors wait with rare trepidation for Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab quarterly earnings. I'll dive into all of today's other market news and then explain the significance of the timing of ECB President Christine Lagarde's recent call for the euro to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Today's Market Minute * Demand at an auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds on Wednesday fell to the lowest since July, during a selloff in super-long debt this month. * Oil prices settled 1% lower on Tuesday as investors worried about a supply glut after Iranian and U.S. delegations made progress in their talks and on expectations that OPEC+ will decide to increase output at a meeting this week. * President Vladimir Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, according to three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations. * If the United States is to significantly reduce or eliminate its trade deficit, the dollar will have to weaken a lot. How much is unclear, as history shows large dollar declines are rare and have unpredictable consequences for trade. Check out Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever's latest piece. * U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill calls for drastic cuts to clean energy tax credits that have been major drivers of the recent boom seen in utility-scale renewable power and battery capacity. In Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire's latest piece, he outlines the potential implications of this in six charts. Spotlight back on Nvidia The inevitable levelling off of Nvidia's explosive growth is already underway, but the chip designer also faces investor worries about AI overspend and questions about how much U.S. chip curbs on China will cost the company going forward. Nvidia's stock price - which is basically unchanged in 2025 to date - climbed anew on Tuesday along with the broad market rally. That was helped by reports that the company will launch a new chipset for China at significantly lower prices than the currently restricted H20 model. Meanwhile, the overall market mood improved considerably, with the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab jumping 2% on relief over temporarily defused U.S.-European trade tensions, a retreat in long-term government debt yields, and positive U.S. consumer confidence readings for May. However, there were mixed takes on the May household survey, capital goods orders data for last month was soft, and edginess in long bond markets is already coming back. So the main driver of the rally was likely the U.S.-EU trade news after Trump backed down from Friday's 50% tariff threat against the European Union, delaying its implementation until July 9. EU officials have asked leading European companies and CEOs for details of their U.S. investment plans, according to two sources familiar with the matter, as Brussels prepares to advance trade talks with Washington. Tensions on long-dated government debt resurfaced today, meantime, with another tepid sale of Japan's ultra long bonds, reinforcing speculation that Tokyo may be forced to trim sales of debt of such long maturities as fiscal worries grow. The Ministry of Finance sold about 500 billion yen ($3.46 billion) of 40-year bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21, the lowest since a sale in July last year and well below the historical average of 3. That saw 30-year JGB borrowing rates jump back about 5 basis points from Tuesday close, drawing long-dated yields higher around the world. The yen strengthened slightly on the day. With its own home-grown fiscal concerns, the U.S. saw 30-year yields also back up about 5 bps to just under 5%. Some $70 billion of 5-year Treasury notes come under the hammer later. Meanwhile, investor attention has also turned to a Financial Times report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde considered stepping down before her term ends in 2027. The ECB responded by saying Lagarde was determined to complete her eight-year term. Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar held firm even after the country's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 3.25% and flagged a slightly deeper easing cycle than it forecast three months ago. And Shein is working towards a listing in Hong Kong after the online fast-fashion retailer's proposed initial public offering in London failed to secure the green light from Chinese regulators. Now to today's column, where I look into this week's combative speech from ECB boss Lagarde on the status of the euro. Lagarde's euro 'battle cry' emphasizes EU cash need If the euro supplants the dollar as the world's main reserve currency, Europe might lose some currency competitiveness - but the related capital flows it's seeking more than compensate. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, opens new tab weighed in on the debate about the euro's global reserve status on Tuesday by reiterating the ECB's long-standing aim to boost the currency's wider use and position it as the logical alternative to the dollar. The euro has long been the clear second choice in reserve usage, both in the positive and negative sense. While its share of overall reserve coffers is still far behind the dollar's, the euro is way ahead of any other serious rivals to the greenback bar gold. But what was eye-catching about the very vocal ECB support for wider euro usage was the timing and thrust. Lagarde's statements come amid fresh doubts about the dollar's haven status, the U.S. economy's role in the world at large and America's fraying geopolitical alliances - as well as the Trump administration's perceived desire for a weaker, more competitive exchange rate. And Lagarde's speech clearly framed U.S. difficulty as Europe's opportunity. After noting that the dollar and U.S. financial markets had been effective global anchors for decades, she added that "when doubts emerge about the stability of the legal and institutional framework, the impact on currency use is undeniable." "These doubts have materialized in the form of highly unusual cross-asset correlations since April 2 this year, with the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries experiencing sell-offs even as equities fell," the ECB chief explained, referring to market ructions after Trump's 'reciprocal tariff' gambit last month. "The EU has a legitimate reason to turn its commitment to predictable policymaking and the rule of law into a comparative advantage," Lagarde added, underscoring the need for political and internal capital market reforms in the EU that would enable the bloc to seize this opportunity. Clearest of all was her plea for joint debt issuance to boost the scale of 'safe' euro assets, a move that is still controversial within Europe due to persistent German pushback. "Economic logic tells us that public goods need to be jointly financed," she said, re-upping the ECB's preference for expanding the pool of jointly issued euro assets. And she also pointedly underlined the attraction of Europe's military rearmament to official investors who "seek geopolitical assurance in another form: they invest in the assets of regions that are reliable security partners and can honour alliances with hard power." WHATEVER IT TAKES The frank speaking caught everyone's attention. Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said the speech had a "battle cry" element to it. It's still anyone's guess what the outcome will be of the bilateral U.S.-EU trade talks come July's deadline and as a host of disagreements remain. Trump's jarring stop/start EU tariff announcements this past weekend make it difficult to sketch out a possible resolution, and many experts suspect Washington is intent on talking to individual countries to split the group. The tone of the ECB's stance suggests it's bracing for the risk of harsher standoffs ahead. What's more, Lagarde's statement comes as the euro's nominal broad exchange rate has soared to record highs, up almost 20% over the past decade. While that won't please many exporters in the bloc, it does suggest that the ECB - unlike the U.S. administration - is comfortable with its currency's structural strength and thus may be willing to ease policy accordingly. And that will help with the additional debt financing needed of Europe's ambitious new projects - most notably in defense, green energy and tech. On that financing need, central and private sector bankers tend to agree with former ECB chief Mario Draghi about the scale of what is needed, as outlined in his recommendations last summer., opens new tab For example, BNP Paribas economist Laurent Quignon, opens new tab wrote on Tuesday about the total sums needed, as he made a pitch on what Europe can do this year to boost financing via changes to regulation, securitization and the banking union. Adding Draghi's call for annual energy and tech investments of up to 800 billion euros to an almost 200 billion euros of new defense spending and on top of ongoing commitments, he calculated an additional annual EU financing requirement of 1.5 trillion euros through 2028 and 1.4 trillion from then to 2030. That would be more than double the flows observed in the decade through 2024 - and about the same as the total amount of European money that has flowed into the U.S. equity market since 2012. Whatever the implications for exchange rate competitiveness, Europe now has a big bill to pay. Some 'exorbitant privilege' would help. Chart of the day 'Nvidia day' (NVDA.O), opens new tab has become a moment of great excitement for markets in recent years, as the AI darling's stellar earnings and stock gains have typically impressed Wall Street. But investors are approaching today's announcement with caution. That's because Trump's administration, in a fresh effort to limit Beijing's access to cutting-edge technology, last month put export limits on Nvidia's H20 chip, a move the company said would result in $5.5 billion in charges. While the company is expected to report first-quarter revenue surged an annual 66.2% to $43.28 billion, analysts put the quarterly revenue hit ahead from the China chip curbs at anywhere from $3-$4.5 billion. Today's events to watch * Richmond Federal Reserve's May business surveys (10:00 AM EDT); Dallas Federal Reserve May service sector survey (10:30 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve releases minutes of last policy meeting; New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari speak * U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes, $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes * U.S. corporate earnings: Nvidia, Agilent, Salesforce, Synopsys, Nordson Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. By Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Szymanski Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab Suggested Topics:Rates & Bonds Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Mike Dolan Thomson Reuters Mike Dolan is Reuters Editor-at-Large for Finance & Markets and a regular columnist. He has worked as a correspondent, editor and columnist at Reuters for the past 30 years - specializing in global economics and policy and financial markets across G7 and emerging economies. Mike is based in London but has also worked in Washington DC and in Sarajevo and has covered news events from dozens of cities across the world. A graduate in economics and politics from Trinity College Dublin, Mike previously worked with Bloomberg and Euromoney and received Reuters awards for his work during the financial crisis in 2007/2008 and on Frontier Markets in 2010.
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Trading Day: Investors shrug off Nvidia caution
Making sense of the forces driving global markets A day of drift - stocks lower and bond yields higher - was the hallmark of global markets on Wednesday as investors, in the absence of major fresh news on tariffs or developments in long-dated bonds, waited for Nvidia's results after the U.S. close. In my column today I look at why the United States may follow Japan in looking to shorten the maturity of its debt profile, as investors turn increasingly reluctant to hold long-dated bonds. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Fed minutes saw rising inflation, jobless risks as ofMay meeting 2. Japan's quick-fix for bond markets sets a global testcase 3. Demand at Japan's 40-year bond auction sinks as fiscaldoubts prevail 4. Lagarde's euro 'battle cry' emphasizes EU cash need:Mike Dolan 5. ECB's Lagarde determined to complete her term,spokesperson says Nvidia on Wednesday was the last of the U.S. 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants to report earnings. It announced record quarterly revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 but warned that tighter U.S. curbs on exports of its AI chips to key semiconductor market China will hit second quarter revenue. Investors cheered the news though, sending shares up as much as 4% immediately after the release. The relationship between Nvidia's share price and its long-term revenue outlook has been tight, and both were near recent highs before Wednesday's results. Nvidia said on Wednesday it expects revenue this quarter of around $45 billion, almost $1 billion below analysts' average estimate. As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid pointed out earlier on Wednesday, there is still a "significant growth runway" required to reach the current consensus for fiscal year 2030 of around $375 billion, underlining the volatile nature of the stock. Indeed, although U.S. 'Big Tech' has taken a back seat to trade wars, U.S. fiscal concerns and trouble at the long end of global bond markets as the main drivers of investor sentiment recently, Nvidia shares haven't stood still - since the market low on April 7, they have rebounded 50%, outperforming the Roundhill 'Magnificent Seven' ETF and broader Nasdaq. The 'Mag 7' shares account for almost a third of the entire S&P 500 market cap, less than the peak of 35% late last year but up from the April low and still an extraordinarily high concentration of wealth in so few stocks. Big Tech has been quiet lately, but that's unlikely to last. The other big focus for investors in the U.S. session was the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May 6-7 policy meeting. There is usually something for everyone in these releases, but if there is one indication of where policymakers are leaning amid the fog of tariff uncertainty it may be this: "inflation" was mentioned 85 times, while "employment" and "labor market" were mentioned 23 times and 16 times, respectively. Looking ahead to Thursday, investors in Asia will react to Nvidia's earnings and guidance from after the U.S. closing bell the day before. Other highlights should be an expected interest rate cut from the Bank of Korea, revised U.S. GDP figures, and a $44 billion sale of 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Pressure on U.S. to follow Japan in debt profile rethink In the face off between heavily indebted developed economies and increasingly wary investors, Japan has blinked first, announcing that it will reconsider its debt profile strategy amid plunging demand for long-dated bonds. The U.S. could soon follow. Japan has the second-longest debt maturity profile of the G7 nations, with an average of around 9 years. Decades of ultra-low policy rates allowed Tokyo to borrow huge amounts at very low cost across the Japanese Government Bond yield curve. But in recent weeks, 30- and 40-year yields have soared to record highs, as appetite for long-dated paper at JGB auctions has dried up, a one-two punch that has forced officials to consider reducing issuance of long-term bonds in favor of short-dated debt. Many of the debt pressures bearing down on Tokyo are also being felt in Washington. The U.S. no longer boasts a triple-A credit rating, following the downgrade from Moody's earlier this month, and the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt held by the public will rise to a record 118.5% of GDP over the next decade from 97.8% last year. Net interest payments will rise to 4.1% of GDP from 3.1%, it predicts. Finally, there is Trump's tax-cut bill, which is projected to lump $3.8 trillion onto the federal debt over the next decade, according to the CBO. All this is creating understandable unease among investors, and even though foreign demand at bill auctions has remained high, on average, demand at bond auctions is the lowest in years. The Treasury may be forced to grab a page out of Japan's recent playbook and shorten its maturity profile. WAM The U.S. has the shortest 'weighted average maturity' (WAM) of all G7 countries at 71.7 months, according to the Treasury. That's due to a mix of factors, including rising deficits, Fed holdings of longer-dated bonds, and high liquidity and demand at the short end of the curve. But this figure has rarely been higher on its own terms. While the WAM reached a record 75 months briefly in 2023 and was elevated during the post-pandemic period, it has otherwise rarely exceeded 70 months. Indeed, the average going back to 1980 is 61.3 months. Shifts in the Treasury's WAM over the past half century have largely been driven by the interest rate environment, economic and financial crises and investor preference. While today's mix of market, economic and geopolitical trends is unique, it doesn't point to strengthening investor demand for long-dated bonds. The decades before the pandemic - the period known as the 'Great Moderation' - were generally marked by falling interest rates, flattening yield curves, and weak inflation. That era is over, or at least that's the growing consensus among investors and policymakers. This largely reflects the belief that inflation pressures in the coming decades will be higher than those seen during the 'Great Moderation' - particularly given the move toward high tariffs and protectionism - meaning interest rates are likely to remain 'higher for longer'. At the same time, America's apparent move toward isolationism and increased political volatility is apt to make global investors consider reducing their elevated exposure to dollar-denominated assets. That could make it harder for the Treasury to borrow long term at acceptable rates. PRESSURE POINTS These are broad assumptions, of course, and there are many moving parts. A sharp economic slowdown or recession could flatten the yield curve and spark an increase in longer-term issuance. But the curve is currently steepening, and the U.S. 'term premium' - the risk premium investors demand for lending 'long' to Treasury instead of rolling over 'short' loans - is the highest in over a decade and rising. This creates two problems. First, the Treasury may prefer to borrow longer term but not if yields are prohibitively high. Second, even though the U.S. can borrow more cheaply at the short end when the curve is steepening, this increases the 'rollover risk', meaning the government becomes more vulnerable to sudden moves in interest rates. T-bills' 22% share of overall outstanding debt is already above the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee's recommended 15-20% share, but it's hard to see that coming down much any time soon. Morgan Stanley analysts earlier this month outlined a "thought experiment" whereby low demand for notes and bonds could see the share of bills approach 30% by 2027. Ultimately, Treasury supply will largely depend on investor demand. If primary dealers indicate a preference for shorter-dated bonds, the 'WAM' will probably fall. Japan won't be the only developed economy rethinking its onerous borrowing plans. What could move markets tomorrow? * Reaction to Nvidia earnings * South Korea's interest rate decision * U.S. GDP, PCE inflation (Q1, second estimate) * U.S. weekly jobless claims * U.S. 7-year Treasury note auction * Several Fed officials speak at various events. They are:Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed PresidentAustan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, and San FranciscoFed President Mary Daly. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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European Midday Briefing : Stocks Tick Higher on Positive Inflation Data
European stocks ticked higher on Friday, continuing to benefit from the court ruling on Trump's trade tariffs and positive inflation data. While investors continue consider the potential consequences of the ruling, Treasury Secretary Bessent has already said it hasn't had an impact on trade negotiations. Now, the president's team is weighing a twofold response, according to people familiar with the matter. Closer to home, price rises in Spain and France cooled this month , putting the ECB on course to reach its inflation target. Economic Insight The ECB is expected to proceed cautiously, with a pause at 2% likely as inflation forecasts drift slightly lower, possibly to 1.8% by 2026, Franklin Templeton said. While near-term growth may soften amid uncertainty, a recovery is expected from 2026, shifting the policy focus from cuts to potential hikes." Meanwhile, rising defence spending points to a longer-term fiscal shift, echoing patterns from previous high-spending decades. U.S Markets: Stock futures fell with investors--weary from tariff uncertainty--awaiting the Federal Reserve's favourite inflation gauge. Separately, data published Thursday but conducted before the ruling blocking Trump's levies, found 83% of chief executives expected a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Forex: The dollar rose slightly but remained at weaker levels with the DXY dollar index trading below the key 100 level amid heightened uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. ING said the dollar could fall if U.S. personal consumption expenditures data is weaker than expected. Investors will also look at the PCE core price index, expected to rise just 0.1% month-on-month in April, it added. Upcoming data is expected to show German inflation eased in May but the euro's moves are more likely to remain dictated by the dollar's performance, ING said. The market is already fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the ECB on June 5. U.S. personal consumption expenditures data "may be the biggest driver of the euro today and may keep it supported in the confines of a $1.1300-$1.1400 short-term range." Bonds: Treasurys have been a busy economic barometer as of late. The net effect of all the tumult was that the average yield on the index is about 20 basis points higher than before Trump's tariff announcements on April 2, Federated Hermes said. U.S. budget deliberations are not yet finished and the Senate could end up cutting more spending from the bill. Treasury yields were little changed in early European trading. However, some market watchers still see room for short-term gains for Treasurys. Bond issuance pressure in the eurozone is set to moderate meaningfully in 2H relative to 1H, and at the margin this should support European duration, Morgan Stanley said. Energy: Crude oil eked out some gains on rising gasoline demand hopes, despite concerns of increased OPEC+ supply. OPEC+ is expected to announce production hikes for July over the weekend. The exact size of the cartel's hike will be declared at the meeting but is expected to be larger than currently scheduled, ANZ wrote. The precious metal is on track for an overall weekly loss, though it remained up more than 22% in the year to date. EMEA HEADLINES Ray-Ban Maker EssilorLuxottica to Buy Optegra in Medical AI Push Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica said it would buy AI-focused ophthalmology platform Optegra from MidEuropa, as part of the group's medical technology strategy. The Franco-Italian eyewear group said Friday that the deal builds on the company's offering, which spans beyond frames and lenses to include AI-powered technologies, wearables, medical instruments and science-backed eyecare solutions. BP Appoints Former Devon Energy Chief David Hager as Nonexecutive Director BP has appointed the former chief executive of U.S energy company Devon Energy, David Hager, as a nonexecutive director at a time when it is seeking to more than double its production of oil and gas in the U.S. by the end of the decade. The British energy company said Friday that Hager brings a deep knowledge of the U.S. upstream oil-and-gas industry. His appointment will be effective from Monday. Sanofi, Regeneron's Itepekimab Delivers Mixed Results in Late-Stage Trials Sanofi and Regeneron said that drug candidate Itepekimab met the primary goal in one of two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phase 3 studies, but didn't hit the main objective of a second trial. The French pharmaceutical company on Friday said that Itepekimab in former smokers with inadequately controlled chronic obstructive pulmonary disease met the primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in moderate or severe acute exacerbations compared to placebo of 27% at week 52. M&G and Dai-ichi Life Form Strategic Partnership M&G said it formed a strategic partnership with Japanese insurance company Dai-ichi Life aimed at delivering at least $6 billion of new business flows for M&G over the next five years. The London-listed investment management firm said Friday that Dai-chi Life intends to acquire about 15% of shares in M&G, which will become its preferred asset management partner in Europe. GLOBAL NEWS Rising Inflation, Weak Production Put Bank of Japan in Tough Spot TOKYO-Japanese government data released Friday present a mixed picture of rising inflation and sluggish industrial activity, placing the Bank of Japan in a difficult position when it considers future rate hikes. Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the Tokyo metropolitan area rose 3.6% in May from a year earlier, up from April's 3.4% increase, driven by continued food price gains. Tokyo CPI is viewed as an early indicator of nationwide inflation trends. Federal Authorities Probe Effort to Impersonate White House Chief of Staff WASHINGTON-Federal authorities are investigating a clandestine effort to impersonate White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, according to people familiar with the matter, after an unknown individual reached out to prominent Republicans and business executives pretending to be her. In recent weeks, senators, governors, top U.S. business executives and other well-known figures have received text messages and phone calls from a person who claimed to be the chief of staff, the people familiar with the messages said. Israel Fears Being Boxed In by Trump's Iran Talks Seven weeks into negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Israeli officials are concerned the Trump administration could agree to a deal that doesn't block Tehran's ability to produce a nuclear bomb but curtails the option of Israeli military action. That puts Israel in a bind with its most important ally on its most pressing national security question: the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran. Israel's efforts to stiffen the U.S. negotiating position and preserve the option for a military strike at Iran's facilities have led to frustration at the White House. Trump Administration Publishes List of Sanctuary Cities and Counties to Target The Trump administration on Thursday named counties and cities in more than 30 states, including New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, as sanctuary jurisdictions it could go after for not complying with federal immigration laws. President Trump has threatened to pull federal funding and pursue lawsuits against places that don't change their practices. Tariff Ruling Is Put On Hold While Trump Administration Appeals A federal appeals court has temporarily put on hold a ruling that voided President Trump's tariffs while it considers the administration's challenge to the lower-court decision. In a brief order Thursday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said it was pausing Wednesday's decision from the U.S. Court of International Trade until it can hear further legal arguments. The order, known as an administrative stay, didn't rule on the merits of the litigation. Administrative stays are common in emergency appeals. We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions. This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
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North American Morning Briefing : Futures Waver as Investors Digest Tariff News
Stock futures were struggling for direction early on, with weary investors seemingly taking the latest tariff news in their stride ahead of inflation data later. Trade talks with China were a bit stalled, but the legal tumult in around tariffs wasn't impacting global trade negotiations, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Thursday. "There are a couple of very large deals that are close, a couple of them are more complicated," he told Fox News. Meanwhile the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said it was pausing Wednesday's decision from the Court of International Trade until it can hear further legal arguments. Data from a study published Thursday-but conducted before the ruling blocking Trump's levies-found 83% of chief executives expected a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Overseas, Japan saw a mixed picture of rising inflation and sluggish industrial activity. Stocks to Watch: American Eagle Outfitters's shares fell after the retailer swung to a quarterly loss and withdrew its annual outlook. Dell Technologies raised its profit outlook after logging higher sales. Shares rose by as much as 5.4% in after-hours trading but have since retreated, recently rising 2.3%. Gap estimates that tariffs could total up to $300 million in added costs this year. Shares fell 15%. Marvell Technology swung to a quarterly profit and logged a jump in sales, fueled by demand for artificial intelligence. Shares fell more than 3%. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers posted a first-quarter profit after a string of quarterly losses. Shares jumped 51%. Regeneron and Sanofi said their experimental lung-disease treatment delivered mixed results in late-stage trials. Regeneron's stock fell more than 12%. Ulta Beauty raised its annual outlook and posted higher-than-expected quarterly sales. Shares rose roughly 8%. Zeo Energy received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq for failing to file its Form 10-Q for the recent quarter by the required date. Shares fell 14%. ZScaler reported higher quarterly revenue and nudged its full-year guidance. Shares rose off-hours. Watch For: Personal Income and Outlays, Canada GDP, Chicago Business Barometer - ISM Chicago Business Survey, University of Michigan Final Consumer Survey -Trump Tells Powell He Is Making a Mistake by Not Cutting Interest Rates -Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on What Makes the U.S. 'Fundamentally Strong' The dollar rose slightly but remained at weaker levels with the DXY dollar index trading below the key 100 level amid heightened uncertainty over tariffs. ING said the dollar could fall if personal consumption expenditures data is weaker than expected. Investors will also look at the PCE core price index, expected to rise just 0.1% month-on-month in April, it added. Upcoming data is expected to show German inflation eased in May but the euro's moves are more likely to remain dictated by the dollar's performance, ING said. The market is already fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the ECB on June 5. The personal consumption expenditures data "may be the biggest driver of the euro today and may keep it supported in the confines of a $1.1300-$1.1400 short-term range." Bonds: Treasurys have been a busy economic barometer as of late. The net effect of all the tumult was that the average yield on the index is about 20 basis points higher than before Trump's tariff announcements on April 2, Federated Hermes said. Budget deliberations are not yet finished and the Senate could end up cutting more spending from the bill. Treasury yields were little changed in early European trading. However, some market watchers still see room for short-term gains for Treasurys. With rising uncertainties, Societe Generale continued to view risks to short-end Treasury yields to be skewed to the downside. Although the Fed will likely keep policy on hold for as long as they can, the markets will be quick to price in more cuts if employment weakens. "In this context, the bond market is likely to shrug off a strong jobs report but the front-end has room to rally if the data disappoints," it said. Energy: Crude oil eked out some gains on rising gasoline demand hopes, despite concerns of increased OPEC+ supply. OPEC+ is expected to announce production hikes for July over the weekend. The exact size of the cartel's hike will be declared at the meeting but is expected to be larger than currently scheduled, ANZ wrote. The precious metal is on track for an overall weekly loss, though it remained up more than 22% in the year to date. TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES Out of DOGE, Elon Musk Returns to His Bruised Business Empire Elon Musk is ready to get obsessed with his companies again. He has a lot to contend with. Tesla is about to launch its first robotaxis, SpaceX is trying to launch a spacecraft to Mars, and xAI is racing to develop human-level artificial intelligence before the competition does it first. Ray-Ban Maker EssilorLuxottica to Buy Optegra in Medical AI Push Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica said it would buy AI-focused ophthalmology platform Optegra from MidEuropa, as part of the group's medical technology strategy. The Franco-Italian eyewear group said Friday that the deal builds on the company's offering, which spans beyond frames and lenses to include AI-powered technologies, wearables, medical instruments and science-backed eyecare solutions. Nippon Steel to Invest $6 Billion to Cut Carbon Emissions Nippon Steel plans to invest $6 billion to increase production of steel using electric arc furnaces in a bid to reduce carbon emissions. The Japanese steelmaker said Friday that it would invest 868.7 billion yen, equivalent to $6.02 billion, to establish three electric furnaces in Japan and that it expects the Japanese government to provide up to Yen251.4 billion in support. Costco to Rely on Advancing Orders, Production Shifts to Offset Tariffs Costco Wholesale is taking steps to reduce its exposure to tariffs by pulling orders forward and moving the sourcing of its private-label products to the regions where they are sold. These actions have helped lower costs for the warehouse-club chain, while also enabling it to avoid sharp price increases for consumers, Chief Executive Ron Vachris said on a call with analysts Thursday. Federal Authorities Probe Effort to Impersonate White House Chief of Staff WASHINGTON-Federal authorities are investigating a clandestine effort to impersonate White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, according to people familiar with the matter, after an unknown individual reached out to prominent Republicans and business executives pretending to be her. In recent weeks, senators, governors, top U.S. business executives and other well-known figures have received text messages and phone calls from a person who claimed to be the chief of staff, the people familiar with the messages said. Israel Fears Being Boxed In by Trump's Iran Talks Seven weeks into negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Israeli officials are concerned the Trump administration could agree to a deal that doesn't block Tehran's ability to produce a nuclear bomb but curtails the option of Israeli military action. That puts Israel in a bind with its most important ally on its most pressing national security question: the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran. Israel's efforts to stiffen the U.S. negotiating position and preserve the option for a military strike at Iran's facilities have led to frustration at the White House. Trump Administration Publishes List of Sanctuary Cities and Counties to Target The Trump administration on Thursday named counties and cities in more than 30 states, including New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, as sanctuary jurisdictions it could go after for not complying with federal immigration laws. President Trump has threatened to pull federal funding and pursue lawsuits against places that don't change their practices. Dynacor: ISS Positively Recommends All Director Nominees, Meeting Resolutions Fitch Assigns Fortis Inc. First Time 'BBB+' IDR; Outlook Stable 04:30/JPN: Apr Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics 13:45/US: May Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI 14:00/US: May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final 19:00/US: Apr Agricultural Prices All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones. Expected Earnings for Friday Canopy Growth Corp (CGC,WEED.T) is expected to report for 4Q. Gencor Industries Inc (GENC) is expected to report for 2Q. Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB.T,LRCDF) is expected to report $0.67 for 2Q. Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL) is expected to report $0.92 for 1Q. Aspen Aerogels Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Barclays
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EMEA Morning Briefing : Stock Futures Rise as Trade Developments Eyed
EU inflation, unemployment; Italy unemployment; no major corporate trading updates expected Opening Call: European stock futures advanced, tracking mild gains by Asian stock benchmarks. The dollar rebounded; Treasury yields were little changed; oil futures gained and gold fell. Equities: Stock futures rose early Tuesday as traders await further trade developments following another flare-up in global trade tensions. Investors are "not quite sure where these tariffs go, not quite sure what the strategy is from the White House moving forward," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. Forex: Tariffs and recession fears have been weighing on the dollar. "The greenback is feeling the impact of this breakdown," Spartan's Peter Cardillo said. He thinks the weakening can continue "as the trade war intensifies and recession fears continue to mount." Bonds: Fixed-income investors looking for opportunities outside of the U.S. can find appealing options in emerging markets, Payden & Rygel's Kristin Ceva said. "Global investors may have become overallocated to the US in recent years," Ceva said. She said EM debt is "underappreciated despite offering attractive income (7-8% yields), broad diversification (up to 80 countries), and exposure across sovereign, corporate, and local currency markets." Some of their currencies are expected to appreciate against the dollar, in an added potential gain. Energy: Oil futures rose in Asia amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. "Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian air bases have introduced a renewed element of supply risk into the market," Kudotrade's Konstantinos Chrysikos said. "Geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to maintain a risk premium in oil markets, providing support to prices," Chrysikos said. Metals: Gold fell slightly early Tuesday after notching recent gains due to safe-haven demand. Ukraine's recent drone strikes have cast a cloud over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The talks in Istanbul on Monday ended after the two sides met for just over an hour with little progress toward an agreement. - Copper may be supported by improving fundamentals. Inventories in LME warehouses are nearing two-year lows, ANZ said. The bank noted that copper prices recently gained 1.2% amid fears that the metal could be the next in line to be hit with new tariffs. TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES China's New Trade Negotiator Is Ready to Play Hardball In its deepening face-off with the Trump administration, Beijing's trade negotiator has given a preview of Xi Jinping's chief objective for this trade war: It won't be like last time. In Geneva in mid-May, Vice Premier He Lifeng extracted a 90-day trade truce from a Trump team that had until then declined to pause a tariff blitz on China the way it had for other countries. The deal calmed the nerves of investors and markets around the world. Why oil's rally after Russia's 'Pearl Harbor' moment may be short-lived Geopolitical shocks have a knack for roiling the financial markets, but the oil sector was still caught off guard by a surprise attack by Ukraine that has been referred to as "Russia's Pearl Harbor," and which led to an unexpected rally in crude prices that some analysts believe is doomed to be short-lived. The upward move in prices came during the same weekend that OPEC+ announced a decision to speed up its production increase for a third month in a row. Some analysts had expected to see oil move lower in the wake of that decision, but that was before Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian air-force bases that damaged or destroyed bombers used by Russia for missile attacks and potential nuclear strikes, according to the Wall Street Journal. Poland Has a New Government. The Economy Will March On. Poland's economic miracle can't survive a divided government forever. But it can for a while longer. Conservative opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki's 51% to 49% victory in Poland's June 1 presidential election dealt a blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Western-leaning government, all but insuring continued vetoes of its key reforms. Markets took the result in stride, however. The iShares MSCI Poland exchange-traded fund was little changed, holding on to a 47% year to date bull run. The zloty nudged up 0.5% against the dollar. Universal, Warner and Sony Are Negotiating AI Licensing Rights for Music Major music companies are negotiating licensing deals with two startups that could set a new precedent for how songs are used and artists are paid for remixes generated by artificial intelligence. Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and Sony Music Group want to be compensated by startups Suno and Udio when music by artists they represent is used to train generative AI models and produce new music, according to people familiar with the talks. China's AI industry is booming. Can Nvidia and other U.S. companies still get in on it? Despite concerns over whether China will be able to keep up its artificial-intelligence spending in the face of tightening U.S. restrictions on advanced chip sales, some analysts are staying bullish and see the country's data-center demand growing. That could be good for Nvidia Corp., as it's expected to launch a new chip to get around the latest rules limiting its China sales. Jefferies analysts said in a note on Monday that capital-expenditures growth for China's cloud-service providers exceeded that of U.S. counterparts in the first quarter of the year. Even after taking into account that Chinese companies likely stockpiled chips late last year to get ahead of U.S. trade restrictions, the capex-to-cloud-revenue ratio of Chinese cloud providers "is in fact catching up with those of U.S. peers," the analysts said. 07:00/SVK: 1Q Labour Force Sample Survey: Employment & unemployment All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones. Write to us at [email protected] We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions. This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
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Spotlight back on Nvidia
LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets After weeks of trade and debt anxiety, the spotlight has shifted back to the artificial intelligence theme on Wednesday, as investors wait with rare trepidation for Nvidia's quarterly earnings. I'll dive into all of today's other market news and then explain the significance of the timing of ECB President Christine Lagarde's recent call for the euro to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Today's Market Minute * Demand at an auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds on Wednesday fell to the lowest since July, during a selloff in super-long debt this month. * Oil prices settled 1% lower on Tuesday as investors worried about a supply glut after Iranian and U.S. delegations made progress in their talks and on expectations that OPEC+ will decide to increase output at a meeting this week. * President Vladimir Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, according to three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations. * If the United States is to significantly reduce or eliminate its trade deficit, the dollar will have to weaken a lot. How much is unclear, as history shows large dollar declines are rare and have unpredictable consequences for trade. Check out Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever's latest piece. * U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill calls for drastic cuts to clean energy tax credits that have been major drivers of the recent boom seen in utility-scale renewable power and battery capacity. In Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire's latest piece, he outlines the potential implications of this in six charts. Spotlight back on Nvidia The inevitable levelling off of Nvidia's explosive growth is already underway, but the chip designer also faces investor worries about AI overspend and questions about how much U.S. chip curbs on China will cost the company going forward. Nvidia's stock price - which is basically unchanged in 2025 to date - climbed anew on Tuesday along with the broad market rally. That was helped by reports that the company will launch a new chipset for China at significantly lower prices than the currently restricted H20 model. Meanwhile, the overall market mood improved considerably, with the S&P 500 jumping 2% on relief over temporarily defused U.S.-European trade tensions, a retreat in long-term government debt yields, and positive U.S. consumer confidence readings for May. However, there were mixed takes on the May household survey, capital goods orders data for last month was soft, and edginess in long bond markets is already coming back. So the main driver of the rally was likely the U.S.-EU trade news after Trump backed down from Friday's 50% tariff threat against the European Union, delaying its implementation until July 9. EU officials have asked leading European companies and CEOs for details of their U.S. investment plans, according to two sources familiar with the matter, as Brussels prepares to advance trade talks with Washington. Tensions on long-dated government debt resurfaced today, meantime, with another tepid sale of Japan's ultra long bonds, reinforcing speculation that Tokyo may be forced to trim sales of debt of such long maturities as fiscal worries grow. The Ministry of Finance sold about 500 billion yen ($3.46 billion) of 40-year bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21, the lowest since a sale in July last year and well below the historical average of 3. That saw 30-year JGB borrowing rates jump back about 5 basis points from Tuesday close, drawing long-dated yields higher around the world. The yen strengthened slightly on the day. With its own home-grown fiscal concerns, the U.S. saw 30-year yields also back up about 5 bps to just under 5%. Some $70 billion of 5-year Treasury notes come under the hammer later. Meanwhile, investor attention has also turned to a Financial Times report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde considered stepping down before her term ends in 2027. The ECB responded by saying Lagarde was determined to complete her eight-year term. Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar held firm even after the country's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 3.25% and flagged a slightly deeper easing cycle than it forecast three months ago. And Shein is working towards a listing in Hong Kong after the online fast-fashion retailer's proposed initial public offering in London failed to secure the green light from Chinese regulators. Now to today's column, where I look into this week's combative speech from ECB boss Lagarde on the status of the euro. Lagarde's euro 'battle cry' emphasizes EU cash need If the euro supplants the dollar as the world's main reserve currency, Europe might lose some currency competitiveness - but the related capital flows it's seeking more than compensate. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde weighed in on the debate about the euro's global reserve status on Tuesday by reiterating the ECB's long-standing aim to boost the currency's wider use and position it as the logical alternative to the dollar. The euro has long been the clear second choice in reserve usage, both in the positive and negative sense. While its share of overall reserve coffers is still far behind the dollar's, the euro is way ahead of any other serious rivals to the greenback bar gold. But what was eye-catching about the very vocal ECB support for wider euro usage was the timing and thrust. Lagarde's statements come amid fresh doubts about the dollar's haven status, the U.S. economy's role in the world at large and America's fraying geopolitical alliances - as well as the Trump administration's perceived desire for a weaker, more competitive exchange rate. And Lagarde's speech clearly framed U.S. difficulty as Europe's opportunity. After noting that the dollar and U.S. financial markets had been effective global anchors for decades, she added that "when doubts emerge about the stability of the legal and institutional framework, the impact on currency use is undeniable." "These doubts have materialized in the form of highly unusual cross-asset correlations since April 2 this year, with the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries experiencing sell-offs even as equities fell," the ECB chief explained, referring to market ructions after Trump's 'reciprocal tariff' gambit last month. "The EU has a legitimate reason to turn its commitment to predictable policymaking and the rule of law into a comparative advantage," Lagarde added, underscoring the need for political and internal capital market reforms in the EU that would enable the bloc to seize this opportunity. Clearest of all was her plea for joint debt issuance to boost the scale of 'safe' euro assets, a move that is still controversial within Europe due to persistent German pushback. "Economic logic tells us that public goods need to be jointly financed," she said, re-upping the ECB's preference for expanding the pool of jointly issued euro assets. And she also pointedly underlined the attraction of Europe's military rearmament to official investors who "seek geopolitical assurance in another form: they invest in the assets of regions that are reliable security partners and can honour alliances with hard power." Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said the speech had a "battle cry" element to it. It's still anyone's guess what the outcome will be of the bilateral U.S.-EU trade talks come July's deadline and as a host of disagreements remain. Trump's jarring stop/start EU tariff announcements this past weekend make it difficult to sketch out a possible resolution, and many experts suspect Washington is intent on talking to individual countries to split the group. The tone of the ECB's stance suggests it's bracing for the risk of harsher standoffs ahead. What's more, Lagarde's statement comes as the euro's nominal broad exchange rate has soared to record highs, up almost 20% over the past decade. While that won't please many exporters in the bloc, it does suggest that the ECB - unlike the U.S. administration - is comfortable with its currency's structural strength and thus may be willing to ease policy accordingly. And that will help with the additional debt financing needed of Europe's ambitious new projects - most notably in defense, green energy and tech. On that financing need, central and private sector bankers tend to agree with former ECB chief Mario Draghi about the scale of what is needed, as outlined in his recommendations last summer. For example, BNP Paribas economist Laurent Quignon wrote on Tuesday about the total sums needed, as he made a pitch on what Europe can do this year to boost financing via changes to regulation, securitization and the banking union. Adding Draghi's call for annual energy and tech investments of up to 800 billion euros to an almost 200 billion euros of new defense spending and on top of ongoing commitments, he calculated an additional annual EU financing requirement of 1.5 trillion euros through 2028 and 1.4 trillion from then to 2030. That would be more than double the flows observed in the decade through 2024 - and about the same as the total amount of European money that has flowed into the U.S. equity market since 2012. Whatever the implications for exchange rate competitiveness, Europe now has a big bill to pay. Some 'exorbitant privilege' would help. Chart of the day 'Nvidia day' has become a moment of great excitement for markets in recent years, as the AI darling's stellar earnings and stock gains have typically impressed Wall Street. But investors are approaching today's announcement with caution. That's because Trump's administration, in a fresh effort to limit Beijing's access to cutting-edge technology, last month put export limits on Nvidia's H20 chip, a move the company said would result in $5.5 billion in charges. While the company is expected to report first-quarter revenue surged an annual 66.2% to $43.28 billion, analysts put the quarterly revenue hit ahead from the China chip curbs at anywhere from $3-$4.5 billion. Today's events to watch * Richmond Federal Reserve's May business surveys (10:00 AM EDT); Dallas Federal Reserve May service sector survey (10:30 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve releases minutes of last policy meeting; New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari speak * U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5-year notes, $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes * U.S. corporate earnings: Nvidia, Agilent, Salesforce, Synopsys, Nordson Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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EMEA Morning Briefing : Nvidia Earnings in Focus
France consumer spending; Germany unemployment; trading update from Kingfisher Opening Call: European stock futures inched higher early Wednesday. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar strengthened; Treasury yields were little changed; while oil futures rose and gold fell. Equities: European futures pointed to a stronger open on Wednesday, after the S&P 500 rose more than 2%, its largest single-day gain since May 12. Wall Street is betting that the worst of President Trump's trade war is in the rearview mirror. The on-again, off-again dance of tariff talks and tentative deals has kept investors on edge, with hopes now rising that last week's threats were more a negotiating tactic than a sign of a renewed trade war. "We just need to get past this uncertainty so companies and consumers can plan ahead," said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management. All eyes are on Nvidia ahead of its earnings due later today. Megacap technology stocks have received a huge boost in May as investors worried about tariffs have turned to technology names as a port in the storm. Forex: Sharp falls in 30-year Treasury yields and a notable rebound in U.S. consumer confidence have reduced "core USD risks that markets have been angsting over in recent weeks--debt sustainability and the U.S. growth outlook," Westpac Strategy said. Hence, the "sell America" trade is understandably on the backfoot, Westpac added. Bonds: Treasury yields fell overnight, after a sale of new two-year notes drew modestly firmer overall demand. The sale, to be followed by auctions of five-year and seven-year paper later in the week, was the first auction of benchmark U.S. debt since Moody's lowered its triple-A credit rating on the federal government. Energy: Oil strengthened amid prospects of new U.S. sanctions against Russia, which could affect oil supplies. Trump on Tuesday expressed renewed frustration with Russian President Putin, saying the Russian leader was "playing with fire" as peace talks with Ukraine have faltered. Trump over the weekend indicated that he was considering sanctions against Moscow, the WSJ reported, citing people familiar with the matter, who also said the sanctions could come as soon as this week. Metals: Signs of progress in U.S.-EU trade talks could cap gold's gains. Trump's recent decision to delay tariffs on EU imports allows additional time for talks, Sucden Financial said. This delay has helped to ease fears of a near-term escalation and has underpinned risk appetite globally, it said. - Iron ore declined in Asia as sentiment remains subdued. China's struggling property sector is weighing on demand, with reports suggesting that several steel mills in Shandong province have begun curbing output in response, ANZ said. Still, demand for steel from other sectors may surprise on the upside. Data on infrastructure investment and activity in heavy industry, such as railways and shipbuilding, shows strong growth in recent months, ANZ noted.. TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES Wall Street Bets the Worst of Trump's Trade War Is Behind It Wall Street is betting that the worst of President Trump's trade war is in the rearview mirror. The latest example came Tuesday, when news of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU powered a 2% increase in the S&P 500. It was the largest single-day gain since May 12, when a rollback of tariffs between the U.S. and China spurred an even larger market rally. Markets Are on Bond-Auction Watch This Week. These Are the Ones to Worry About. Global markets were back on bond auction watch this week as the U.S. Treasury looked to sell another $183 billion in coupon-paying paper, days after the House of Representatives approved legislation that would greatly increase the national debt. The Treasury kicked things off Tuesday with a $69 billion sale of new two-year notes that drew modestly firmer overall demand. It finished with a yield of 3.955%, around 1 basis point, or hundredth of a percentage point, lower than just prior to the auction. Putin Has Retooled Russia's Economy to Focus Only on War Russia's successes on the front lines in Ukraine are a big reason why Vladimir Putin isn't yet ready to sign up to President Trump's peace efforts. Some of his neighbors fear the success of the war machine now driving its economy means he never will. In the early stages of the war, the Russian president put the country on a footing for a long conflict. Putin retooled the economy to churn out record numbers of tanks and howitzers, while using sizable signing bonuses of up to a year's salary to raise a massive army. At one point, more than a thousand recruits were signing up each day to fight. Supreme Court Declines to Take Up Challenge to Big Arizona Copper Project The Supreme Court cleared a major obstacle for a giant copper project in Arizona being developed by the world's two most valuable mining companies, declining to review a case from a coalition of Native American people, religious groups and others who say the planned mine will destroy a sacred site. The project, called Resolution Copper, has been under development by mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Group for roughly two decades. The companies say the mine could supply as much as a quarter of current U.S. demand for copper, a metal viewed as essential to everything from electric vehicles to the data centers powering the AI boom. SpaceX's Spacecraft Makes It to Space, but Then Tumbles The bumpy ride continued for Elon Musk's 400-foot-tall rocket and spacecraft. SpaceX launched the latest flight test for its Starship vehicle at around 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, but fell short of carrying out planned experiments. The company had looked to complete a fuller mission than in the previous two flight tests conducted this year. Both of them ended in abrupt explosions of Starship spacecraft, the debris briefly halting flights in parts of the Caribbean. 06:45/FRA: Apr Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods 07:55/GER: May Labour market statistics (incl unemployment) 23:01/UK: Apr UK monthly automotive manufacturing figures 23:01/UK: CBI Service Sector Survey All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones. Write to us at [email protected] We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions. This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
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Nvidia reports record quarterly revenue but warns of potential impact from tighter U.S. export controls on AI chips to China. Investors remain optimistic, sending shares up despite cautious guidance.
Nvidia, the leading AI chip designer, announced record quarterly revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 on Wednesday
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. This impressive performance comes as the company continues to dominate the artificial intelligence chip market, riding the wave of AI enthusiasm that has swept through the tech industry.Source: Market Screener
Despite the strong results, Nvidia warned that tighter U.S. curbs on exports of its AI chips to China, a key semiconductor market, could impact second-quarter revenue
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. This cautionary note highlights the ongoing tensions between the U.S. tech industry and China trade policies, which have become increasingly complex in recent years.Investors appeared to shrug off these concerns, sending Nvidia's shares up as much as 4% immediately after the earnings release
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. This positive reaction suggests that the market remains confident in Nvidia's long-term growth prospects, despite potential short-term headwinds.Nvidia provided guidance for the second quarter, expecting revenue of around $45 billion
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. While this figure fell slightly short of analysts' average estimate by nearly $1 billion, it still represents significant growth. The company's long-term revenue outlook remains ambitious, with consensus estimates for fiscal year 2030 reaching approximately $375 billion2
.Nvidia's performance has broader implications for the tech sector and financial markets. The company's shares have rebounded 50% since the market low on April 7, outperforming both the Roundhill 'Magnificent Seven' ETF and the broader Nasdaq
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. This resurgence underscores Nvidia's central role in the AI boom and its influence on market sentiment.Source: Reuters
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The challenges Nvidia faces with export controls to China reflect the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding advanced technologies. As tensions between the U.S. and China continue, the tech industry finds itself navigating a delicate balance between growth opportunities and regulatory compliance
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.To address the export restrictions, Nvidia is reportedly planning to launch a new chipset for China at significantly lower prices than the currently restricted H20 model
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. This move demonstrates the company's agility in adapting to regulatory challenges while maintaining its competitive edge in the global market.Nvidia's latest earnings report paints a picture of a company at the forefront of the AI revolution, delivering strong financial results while navigating complex geopolitical and regulatory challenges. As the AI industry continues to evolve, Nvidia's performance will likely remain a key indicator of both technological progress and the state of global trade relations in the tech sector.
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