Nvidia prepares to ship up to 80,000 H200 AI chips to China as political hurdles loom

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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Nvidia plans to deliver up to 80,000 H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year, marking the first legal export of this caliber since 2022. The shipments follow Donald Trump's policy reversal allowing sales with a 25% revenue share to the US Treasury. But Beijing hasn't approved purchases yet, and bipartisan opposition in Washington threatens the deal as China weighs the impact on its domestic chipmaking industry.

Nvidia H200 Shipments to China Mark Major Policy Shift

Nvidia is preparing to deliver between 40,000 and 80,000 H200 AI chips to China before the mid-February Lunar New Year holiday, marking the first time high-end AI chips of this caliber would be legally exported to the country since 2022. According to Reuters, the Nvidia H200 shipments will be drawn from existing inventory, with the company indicating it can meet initial demand for 5,000 to 10,000 H200 modules pending government approval in Beijing

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. The deal follows a dramatic policy reversal by the Donald Trump administration, which overrode existing US export controls in early December to allow AI chip sales to China under strict conditions

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Source: SiliconANGLE

Source: SiliconANGLE

Trump Administration Enables Sales With 25% Tax Requirement

The Biden administration's export controls on AI chips to China, which began in 2022 and expanded through 2023, had cut off access to Nvidia's A100, H100, and H200 silicon over national security concerns. In response, Nvidia designed lower-performing parts specifically for the Chinese market, with the H20 being the most powerful of these restricted variants

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. The Trump policy reversal now allows H200 chips to be sold into China provided each deal is subject to inter-agency approval and includes a 25% tax paid to the US Treasury. The decision does not extend to Nvidia's current Blackwell or upcoming Rubin GPUs, effectively granting limited access to older silicon while keeping cutting-edge hardware firmly out of reach

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Political Hurdles Threaten Deal on Both Sides

Significant political hurdles remain despite Trump's approval. Beijing has not yet cleared the shipments, and Chinese officials have convened emergency meetings to determine how to respond to the potential influx of advanced AI processors

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. One proposal under consideration would require all H200 purchases to be bundled with a minimum ratio of domestic chips, thereby preserving demand for China's domestic chipmaking industry vendors like Cambricon and Moore Threads

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. On the US side, bipartisan opposition has emerged with vocal pushback from lawmakers. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Gregory Meeks wrote to the Commerce Department demanding disclosure of license details and a briefing before any approvals are issued

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. House Republicans introduced a bill that would allow Congress to block advanced AI chip exports, while House Democrats proposed legislation prohibiting sales of America's most advanced chips to China

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H200 Performance Creates Dilemma for China's Tech Ambitions

The H200 is a Hopper-based GPU that dramatically outpaces the H20 variant, offering approximately six times more power than the downgraded chip Nvidia designed to bypass restrictions

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. Chinese technology giants including Alibaba and ByteDance have expressed strong interest in acquiring the chips for AI training applications

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. The H200 is far more powerful than any domestically produced alternative, including Huawei's Ascend 910C, which trails significantly in both raw throughput and memory bandwidth

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. This performance gap creates a dilemma for China's domestic chip ambitions, as reliance on Nvidia's technology may hinder progress toward a self-sufficient AI hardware stack just as it begins to mature.

Source: Tom's Hardware

Source: Tom's Hardware

Production Restart and Market Implications

Nvidia had largely transitioned away from Hopper-class manufacturing to focus on next-generation designs, but the company has signaled it will take new H200 orders starting in 2026 following the green light from Washington

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. According to Reuters, production of Hopper GPUs could resume at foundry partner TSMC with additional capacity available starting in the second half of 2026

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. CEO Jensen Huang estimated that China would have been a $50 billion market in 2025 if the company had been allowed to sell competitive products in the region

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. However, Hopper sales have fallen off considerably, accounting for $2 billion in sales in Q3, with H20 sales only representing $50 million due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China

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. Analysts at Jefferies voiced skepticism about whether the chip would ultimately be allowed, noting considerable uncertainty around investor confidence despite the potential opportunity

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. The chip war dynamics suggest that while the deal addresses short-term problems for Nvidia by monetizing inventory that might otherwise depreciate, the long-term implications for both US-China tech relations and China's semiconductor self-sufficiency remain unclear.

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