Nvidia's Record-Breaking Earnings Fuel AI Boom Amid Market Scrutiny

Nvidia reports record sales as the AI boom continues | TechCrunch

Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, reported another quarter of sustained sales growth in its earnings statement Wednesday, with $46.7 billion in revenue, a 56% increase compared to the same period last year. That growth was largely fueled by AI-dominated data center business, which saw a 56% year-over-year increase in revenue. Nvidia also saw its net income grow substantially since last year. The company reported a net income of $26.4 billion in the second quarter, a 59% spike since the same period last year. All told, the company brought in $41.1 billion in revenue from data center sales in the quarter, suggesting that AI companies' demand for cutting-edge GPUs continues to grow. The company's most advanced generation of chips, Blackwell, accounted for $27 billion of those sales. "Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for," said CEO Jensen Huang in a statement accompanying the release. "The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center." The company made particular note of its role in the launch of OpenAI's open source gpt-oss models earlier this month, which involved processing "1.5 million tokens per second on a single NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 NVL72 rack-scale system." The earnings also gave a look at Nvidia's ongoing struggle to sell its chips in Chinese markets. The company reported no sales of its China-focused H20 chip to Chinese customers in the past quarter; Nvidia did report $650 million worth of H20 chips had been sold to a customer outside China. The United States has long restricted sales of advanced GPUs to Chinese customers - but the geopolitical situation has changed significantly under President Trump. The company is now permitted to sell chips to China as long as it pays a 15% percent export tax to the U.S. Treasury, as a result of an unconventional arrangement that legal scholars have described as an unconstitutional abuse of power. Still, the Chinese government has officially discouraged the use of Nvidia chips by local businesses, leading the company to reportedly halt production of the H20 chip earlier this month.

Nvidia Earnings Are the Stock Market Risk Event After Fed Rally

Traders are breathing easier heading into this week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts are coming. The next test for the stock market will be a read on what's been driving gains for the past few years: artificial intelligence euphoria. Sentiment was weak heading into Friday, with the S&P 500 Index falling for five straight sessions, its longest losing streak since January, as Wall Street pros pulled back on bets that the Fed was about to reduce borrowing costs. Powell's comments halted those concerns, sending the S&P 500 soaring to its best day since May and less than two points from a record.

Wall St Week Ahead Investors zero in on Nvidia results as US tech stocks waver

NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - A wobble in U.S. technology shares has raised the stakes for Nvidia Corp's (NVDA.O), opens new tab quarterly results on Wednesday, with earnings from the semiconductor giant posing a crucial test for the scorching AI trade. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab has pulled back this week from record levels, dragged lower by a roughly 3% drop so far this week in the heavyweight tech sector (.SPLRCT), opens new tab after a huge run for the group. Fueled by its dominant artificial intelligence (AI) products, Nvidia's massive share price gains have buoyed both the tech sector and the overall market in recent years. Last month, Nvidia became the first company to top $4 trillion in market value. Investors are now more "on edge" heading into Nvidia's results, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "When the group goes down and the most important stock in the group reports earnings, that is going to have a bigger impact than usual," Maley said. Nvidia's stock has climbed about 30% so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400% since October 2022. The California-based company has epitomized the broader AI excitement that has driven up shares of a raft of tech companies and others involved in AI infrastructure such as power generation and cooling systems. "Nvidia is almost looked at as a proxy to what is happening in artificial intelligence," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "There's definitely a read-through that happens to the broader AI trade, which has really been the main driver of the S&P 500's return this year." Analysts said possible reasons for recent tech stock weakness include cautionary AI industry developments, including comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that investors may be getting overexcited about AI. Nvidia's results will close out a second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season that has largely surpassed expectations and helped support equities. S&P 500 company earnings are on track to have climbed 12.9% from the year-earlier period, up from an expected 5.8% rise on July 1, according to LSEG IBES. Goldman Sachs strategists pointed to particular earnings strength so far for the "Magnificent 7" -- the group of megacap companies that includes Nvidia as well as Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab. Including estimates for Nvidia, the Magnificent 7 are on track to have increased earnings by 26% compared with 7% for the remaining 493 stocks in the index, the Goldman strategists said in a note. Nvidia is expected to post a 48% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $45.9 billion for its second fiscal quarter, according to LSEG data. Megacap tech companies focusing on AI have recently increased their estimates for capital spending, which should be favorable for Nvidia, said Paul Roach, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Nvidia's "commentary on the demand side... should be more bullish just because their largest customers have all kind of upped their capex guidance over the last few quarters," Roach said, adding that demand for Nvidia's products is also broadening beyond the largest tech companies ECONOMIC DATA Investors will also focus on U.S. economic data in the coming week, including on consumer sentiment and inflation. Despite the latest week's tech-driven declines, the S&P 500 remains up over 8% this year and stands less than 2% below its record closing high. As tech shares fell this week, some investors rotated into other areas of the market that have not been as strong in recent weeks, such as healthcare (.SPXHC), opens new tab and consumer staples (.SPLRCS), opens new tab. But major equity indexes will be hard-pressed to keep moving higher if tech falters, given its heavy presence in those indexes, Maley said. Tech is by far the largest of the S&P 500's 11 sectors, with a 33% weight. Nvidia alone has a nearly 8% weight in the index. "If these tech stocks continue to fall, that means the indexes will continue to fall," Maley said. "No way around it." Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by David Gregorio Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Can Nvidia results dispel creeping AI doubts?

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Questions are arising about when artificial intelligence will deliver its promised returns, meaning tech-concentrated U.S. equity indices sitting near record highs are vulnerable to a correction. Nvidia's quarterly results this week could therefore potentially be explosive - not just for the company's shares or the tech sector, but for all of Wall Street. The U.S. chipmaker and global AI leader is the world's most valuable company, with a market cap of $4.4 trillion. That's double the entire value of Germany's benchmark DAX and represents 8% of the S&P 500, the largest share for any single stock in the index's history. Nvidia is expected to report a 53% increase in revenue to $46.02 billion on Wednesday, according to the mean estimate from 40 analysts, based on LSEG data. That would be higher than the company's own guidance three months ago. Given Nvidia's unprecedented weight in the U.S. market, its earnings releases have become an event - almost akin to U.S. GDP or inflation statistics. But Wednesday's numbers will be scrutinized particularly closely given the questions being raised about whether we're seeing an AI bubble. 'OVEREXCITED' Doubt appears to be creeping in among investors about when and by how much - or even if - the eye-watering investment in AI projects and infrastructure will begin to pay off. And it's not just the bearish, contrarian, 'Magnificent Seven' short sellers peddling this narrative either. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes," said none other than ChatGPT founder Sam Altman earlier this month, according to The Verge. A recent Massachusetts Institute of Technology study found that 95% of companies are getting zero return on the billions of dollars they have plowed into Generative AI investments. More than 80% of companies have looked into or started using tools like ChatGPT and Copilot, but they only boost individual productivity, not firms' bottom line, the study found. Investors appear to be growing antsy, with some beginning to rotate out of expensive tech and growth stocks and into small caps and value names. In the last two weeks, the Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 1%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is up over 5%. That could just be a bit of mean reversion in thin August trading, but it's a nervy backdrop for Nvidia's earnings release. TRILLION DOLLAR BET One of the key worries being bandied about is the amount of money companies are investing in AI. The 'Magnificent Seven' U.S. tech giants have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years on AI-related investment. Morgan Stanley analysts predict nearly $3 trillion of global spending on data centers through 2028, with over $900 billion anticipated in 2028 alone. To put that into perspective, capex spending among all S&P 500-listed companies last year was around $950 billion. Analysts at McKinsey go even further. They estimate that investment in data centers worldwide will need to reach $6.7 trillion by 2030 - covering hardware, processors, memory, storage, and energy - to keep up with demand. With sums like that, the hurdles to making an attractive return on investment are huge. But so are the potential rewards if they do. Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that the long-term 'economic value creation' for S&P 500 companies from AI could reach $920 billion a year. In theory, this could increase the S&P 500 market's value by $13 trillion, using a 10-year average multiple of 18.5 times future earnings, or up to $16 trillion, based on the current market multiple of around 22. HIGH EXPECTATIONS But that's way down the line. It takes years for new technologies to be fully adopted, and although markets are forward-looking, investors can grow impatient if promised returns fail to materialize. Especially when share prices have run up in the meantime. We may already be starting to see that in the recent tech pullback. In the four months up to the mid-August high, U.S. tech shares gained 53%, the strongest performance over a comparable period since March 2000, Truist Investment Advisory's co-CIO Keith Lerner recently noted. "The rubber band for tech stretched too far - at least in the short term. Tech became overcrowded and vulnerable to negative headlines," Lerner says. Given Nvidia's prominence, a release of bumper figures could calm AI jitters, but its failure to meet analysts' lofty expectations could cause the tech snap-back to become a whole lot sharper. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Kirsten Donovan Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab * Suggested Topics: * Technology Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Jamie McGeever Thomson Reuters Jamie McGeever has been a financial journalist since 1998, reporting from Brazil, Spain, New York, London, and now back in the US again. His experience and expertise are in global markets, economics, policy, and investment. Jamie's roles across text and TV have included reporter, editor, and columnist, and he has covered key events and policymakers in several cities around the world.

Dominant AI trade confronts test as bellwether Nvidia reports earnings

NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The artificial intelligence theme that has propelled markets over the past couple years faces a crucial moment on Wednesday, when bellwether Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O), opens new tab reports its second-quarter results. Technology shares, including a number of signature stocks in the AI trade, have wobbled this month with investors pointing to some signs of caution emerging in the AI industry. The declines have taken some of the steam out of an array of tech and other stocks that have sizzled since chatbot ChatGPT unleashed a frenzy over the potential for AI about three years ago. An equal-weighted basket of 50 AI-related stocks tracked by Bespoke Investment Group -- which includes many of the world's biggest tech companies -- has soared nearly 170% since the end of 2022, as of Monday. "AI is a critical piece of what is driving stocks right now," said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. This year, strong gains for number of heavyweight tech stocks exposed to AI have helped power major equity indexes to record highs. Semiconductor giant Nvidia has ridden its position as the dominant AI player to become the first company to top $4 trillion in market value last month. Its more-than 30% gain this year alone has accounted for nearly one quarter of the S&P 500's 10.4% year-to-date total return as of Monday, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. More broadly, 10 top AI plays have contributed nearly half of the index's year-to-date return, according to BCA Research. Shares of data and analytics firm Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O), opens new tab, have doubled, while other chipmakers including Broadcom (AVGO.O), opens new tab and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab have also handily outpaced the broader market. Earlier in the reporting period, companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab unveiled significant capital spending, as AI helped results. AI stock enthusiasm has spread beyond tech and tech-related areas including to utilities and power equipment companies amid spiking energy demand expected to be needed to fuel the technology. Industrial firm GE Vernova (GEV.N), opens new tab and utilities sector members Constellation Energy (CEG.O), opens new tab and Vistra (VST.N), opens new tab are among the non-tech stocks that have put up strong gains in the past year, helped by AI excitement. The AI enthusiasm has helped drive stock valuations well above historical levels. The overall S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, last stood at 22.4 times, according to LSEG Datastream. That is near its highest level in over four years, and some 40% above its long-term average of 15.9. Tech -- which has by far the heaviest weighting in the S&P 500 of the 11 sectors -- has seen its forward P/E rise to 29.2, about 36% above its long-term average of 21.4, according to LSEG Datastream. "There is a risk that we have gotten a little bit ahead of our skis here and that some of the near-term expectations just won't be realized," BCA's Berezin said. The P/E valuations for both the tech sector and the S&P 500 are still below highs reached during the late 1990s and early 2000s, when many stock prices ran up to exorbitant levels during the dawn of the internet, leading to a steep fall for tech stocks in the ensuing years. However, investors have pointed to the increasing presence of the tech sector in market indexes as a sign the market may be overly dependent on the performance of the group. The tech sector comprises slightly over one-third of the overall S&P 500's market value, not far from the 35% level it reached in March 2000, according to LSEG Datastream. Meanwhile, the combined market cap of the 10 biggest AI plays, including Nvidia, Broadcom and Microsoft -- stood at $18 trillion, BCA said in a note last week. That amounts to about 33% of S&P 500 stock market capitalization, up from around 15% in late 2022, according to BCA. Market concentration risk is "real and rising," Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist for Ameriprise Financial, said in a note Nvidia's "commentary on Wednesday could help set the table for how AI trends develop into year-end and, by extension, for a market now anchored to a small group of very large and influential technology stocks," Saglimbene said. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Lance Tupper; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Nvidia earnings: AI demand, China, and what else to watch for

Aug 27 (Reuters) - AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, the dominating force behind the rally in the S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab since 2023, is set to report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after U.S. market close. Wall Street is holding its breath, and will scour the company's commentary for signs of a slowdown. Here is what to watch out for when the world's most valuable firm reports results: * While investors and analysts expect Nvidia to outperform market expectations on Wednesday, a key question is - by how much? After quarters of blazing triple-digit growth in 2024, the pace of Nvidia's revenue increases has slowed and the company is beating Wall Street estimates by smaller and smaller margins. For its second quarter ended July, the company is expected to report second-quarter revenue rose 53.2% to $46.02 billion, according to LSEG data, a far cry from the 122% growth rate it reported in the same period a year earlier. Gross margin - still eye-popping - is shrinking too. * Are concerns about the AI rally overblown? OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently said investors were "overexcited about AI". Tech firms including Meta (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab - big buyers of Nvidia's chips - are spending liberally on their AI plans, and even if they are starting to see the green shoots of returns, the same cannot be said about most other companies. Nvidia's commentary about demand will either put investors at ease or prompt a selloff in AI-related shares. * Will China buy Nvidia chips? The chipmaker recently agreed to pay the U.S. federal government 15% of the sales it made in China in exchange for export licenses. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies to limit purchases over security concerns. that Nvidia has told some suppliers to suspend production of its China-special H20 chips. Commentary from Nvidia's management on the potential for selling to China will be important for gauging future demand. * The company's product roadmap to address the China market is key, after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its next-generation advanced Blackwell chip to Beijing. Reuters has reported Nvidia is developing a new AI chip for China based on the Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there. * Supply of Nvidia's latest chips has fallen short of booming demand. A production ramp-up of its top-of-the-line Blackwell processors has proven to be challenging. Investors are watching out for commentary on how Nvidia's supply chains are powering up to deliver its sought-after processors. Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Stephen Coates Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Nvidia forecasts higher revenue as China clouds future

Aug 27 (Reuters) - Nvidia(NVDA.O), opens new tab forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, helped by robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips from cloud providers expanding infrastructure to power generative AI technology. The AI market bellwether expects revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the third quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. Shares of the world's most valuable firm fell 2.5% in extended trading. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's (.SPX), opens new tab year-to-date rise of nearly 10%. But the company has been caught in the crossfire of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as the world's two largest economies claw for dominance of generative AI technology. The company said it had not assumed any H20 chip shipments to China in the outlook and that there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter. Still, demand has surged for Nvidia's advanced chips that can speedily process the large amounts of data used by generative AI applications as businesses race each other to dominate the new technology. Big Tech companies including Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab have been spending liberally to support their AI ambitions, and Nvidia is the biggest beneficiary, with a significant chunk of this spending funneled toward its chips. The company said that about half of its $41 billion in data center revenue came from large cloud service providers during its fiscal second quarter. Enthusiasm for AI stocks, centered around Nvidia as Wall Street engaged in picks-and-shovels trading, has been the dominating force behind the rally of the S&P 500 Index over the last two years. In an unprecedented deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, Nvidia has agreed to pay the government 15% of some of its revenue in China in exchange for a reversal of restrictions that curbed sales of its H20 chips to China. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies about imports and sources said that Nvidia has halted production of H20 chips. Nvidia had in May expected the curbs to shave off $8 billion in sales from the July quarter. The company reported revenue of $46.74 billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of $46.06 billion. Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Max A. Cherney and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Maju Samuel, Sayantani Ghosh and Matthew Lewis Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

AI leader Nvidia forecasts third-quarter revenue above estimates

Aug 27 (Reuters) - Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, helped by robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips from cloud providers expanding infrastructure to power generative AI technology. The AI market bellwether(NVDA.O), opens new tab expects revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the third quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. Shares of the world's most valuable firm fell 5% in extended trading. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's (.SPX), opens new tab year-to-date rise of nearly 10%. Still, demand has surged for Nvidia's advanced chips that can speedily process the large amounts of data used by generative AI applications as businesses race each other to dominate the new technology. Big Tech companies including Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab have been spending liberally to support their AI ambitions, and Nvidia is the biggest beneficiary, with a significant chunk of this spending funneled toward its chips. Enthusiasm for AI stocks, centered around Nvidia as Wall Street engaged in picks-and-shovels trading, has been the dominating force behind the rally of the S&P 500 Index over the last two years. But the company has been caught in the crossfire of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as the world's two largest economies claw for dominance of generative AI technology. In an unprecedented deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, Nvidia has agreed to pay the government 15% of some of its revenue in China in exchange for a reversal of restrictions that curbed sales of its H20 chips to China. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies about imports and sources said that Nvidia has halted production of H20 chips. Nvidia had in May expected the curbs to shave off $8 billion in sales from the July quarter. The company reported revenue of $46.74 billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of $46.06 billion. It said there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter. Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Max A. Cherney and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Maju Samuel Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

Nvidia revenue jumps 56% on robust AI demand

Nvidia delivered solid results on Wednesday as the $4tn tech giant at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom signalled resilient growth, with markets jittery about whether the momentum around AI can continue. The company reported revenue of $46.7bn for the quarter to July 28, up 56 per cent year on year and slightly above consensus estimates of $46.5bn, according to Visible Alpha. Nvidia said it expected $54bn in sales for the current quarter, plus or minus 2 per cent, compared with expectations of $53.8bn. Its role in designing the advanced chips that are used to develop and run AI models such as ChatGPT has propelled it to become the world's most valuable group by market capitalisation and made it a bellwether for the AI boom. Nvidia's shares are up more than 35 per cent this year. But its stock took a hit last week during a widespread sell-off in companies linked to AI, after a negative report on its practical applications and comments by OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman about investors overhyping the technology. The shares were down about 1.5 per cent in after-hours trading on Wednesday. Net income jumped 59 per cent from last year to $26.4bn, against forecasts of $23.5bn. Earnings per share were $1.08, while adjusted gross margin was 72.7 per cent, slightly above consensus estimates of 72.3 per cent. Nvidia did not give expectations of future revenue from chip sales in China, which have been disrupted by US President Donald Trump's volatile trade policy towards Beijing. It said that despite no revenue from China during the quarter due to new US export controls, it had managed to sell $650mn of its China-specific H20 chips to a customer outside of the country.

Nvidia shares fall on a strong but not impenetrable quarter. There's still so much to like

Nvidia delivered a better-than-expected quarterly results Wednesday night, but a few blemishes in the report -- at least in the eyes of the market -- has shares of the leading AI chipmaker falling in extended trading. That's all some investors need to book profits in a stock that's nearly doubled off its April lows. Revenue grew 56% year over year to $46.7 billion, outpacing the $46.06 billion the Street was looking for, according to estimates compiled by data provider LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the three months ended July 27 increased to $1.05, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.01, LSEG data showed. Nvidia also announced its board approved a $6 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia's year-to-date stock performance. Bottom line Nvidia delivered a strong but not impenetrable quarter. And with the weight of the broader AI trade on its shoulders, it's hardly surprising to see the roughly 3% after-hours drop in the stock Wednesday night. Sure, the magnitude of the quarterly beat and upside to consensus guidance expectations may not be quite what Wall Street was looking for. And the revenues in Nvidia's crucial data center segment were a tad light. But it's clear that demand for Nvidia's chips was strong in the fiscal 2026 second quarter and only stands to strengthen in the coming months and production of its newest chip -- dubbed the GB300, part of the Blackwell generation -- accelerates ahead of an all-new Rubin family of chips set to debut next year. Nvidia's adoption of an annual product launch cycle makes it hard to keep up, but that's a high-quality problem for investors. The GB300, which was announced in March, is an upgraded version of the GB200, which began to roll out last year before ramping up in 2025. Remarkably, Rubin is already in the fabrication phase, Nvidia executives said on the call. Why we own it Nvidia's high-performance graphic processing units (GPUs) are the key driver behind the AI revolution, powering the accelerated data centers being rapidly built around the world. But Nvidia is more than just a hardware story. Through its Nvidia AI Enterprise service, Nvidia is building out its software business. Competitors : Advanced Micro Devices , Broadcom and Intel Most recent buy : Aug 31, 2022 Initiation : March 2019 "This year is obviously a record breaking year. I expect next year to be a record breaking year," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said. Supporting this view, Huang called out that that capital expenditures from the top four U.S. cloud service providers alone is tracking to be about $600 billion this year. Huang doesn't think it's unreasonable that Nvidia will grow to be the beneficiary of a "significant part of that." Again, that's only on the top four CSPs, not to mention the enterprise companies building on premises data centers. Longer-term, Nvidia thinks AI infrastructure spend will likely to hit $3 to $4 trillion by the end of the decade. Huang believes that Blackwell and Rubin will provide a strong opportunity to scale into that massive spend. CFO Colette Kress called out a few main drivers of the growth in annual AI spending, including the evolution in the very nature of AI computing less than three years since the launch of ChatGPT. The advent of reasoning agentic AI -- in simple terms, these are AI systems that take time to chew on a task before taking an action -- requires "orders of magnitude more training and inference compute," Kress said. Additionally, Kress cited the global buildout of sovereign AI infrastructure outside the U.S., enterprise AI adoption and "the arrival of physical AI and robotics." The profit-taking Wednesday night does not change the fact Nvidia still has a massive opportunity to keep growing as it supports the worldwide effort to build AI data centers, which Nvidia likes to call AI factories because they manufacture intelligence. We're also fully aware that with Nvidia's guidance, better than expected has simply become the default expectation. So while we once again saw Nvidia's revenue forecast for the current period come in north of the consensus estimate, some investors were likely looking for an even rosier guide -- the so-called whisper number on Wall Street. Plus, Nvidia's guidance does not include any contribution from sales of its H20 chip to Chinese customers given the geopolitical uncertainty that still remains despite the Trump administration's decision to walk back its April export ban. Management said on the call that there's customer interest in the chips and the supply is there. If the China situation gets more favorable for Nvidia, its guidance could prove conservative. Given the results and what we heard on the call, we continue to view Nvidia as an "own it, don't trade it" name. For the moment, we are putting our price target under review and maintaining our hold-equivalent rating, however. Commentary Coming into earnings, we wanted to get Huang and Co.'s thoughts on four key topics : Blackwell demand; the profit-margin impact of the transition from the GB200 to the GB300; total cost of ownership and lastly, the outlook on China. Here's a closer look at what we ended up hearing. 1. Blackwell demand : This is clearly showing no sings of letting up, with finance chief Kress calling out that cloud customers are expected to invest roughly $600 billion in data center architecture alone, almost double the spend that we saw just two years ago. On the call, Kress noted that a $3 million investment in the GB200 can lead to $30 million in token revenue. "The more you buy, the more you grow," as Huang likes to say. He repeated that line on Wednesday night's call. Clearly these chips pay for themselves and it's only getting better. In fact, thanks to the strength of Nvidia's developer ecosystem, Kress noted that Blackwell performance has more than doubled since launch as the software that runs on the hardware takes advantage of its capabilities. 2. GB300 transition : On the call, Kress called out that the GB300 has begun production shipments, adding that growth is aided by sales to so-called neoclouds (think companies like CoreWeave ), enterprises and sovereigns. "We are at the beginning of an industrial revolution that will transform every industry," she said, adding that she sees "significant long-term growth opportunities for Nvidia." While we didn't get any quantitative thoughts the GB300 margin impact, Nvidia's adjusted gross margin of 72.7% in the quarter was above Street expectations and Kress guided for a sequential improvement in the current period and reiterated its forecast of exiting the fiscal year in the mid-70s. No major curveballs there. Perhaps a key reason why: Kress described the manufacturing transition from the GB200 to the GB300 as "seamless" thanks to the shared rack architecture between the two products. Those comments were encouraging given some of the temporary hiccups Nvidia experienced when shifting from the Hopper architecture to the Blackwell generation. Production of the GB300 is now up to about 1,000 racks per week, and Kress said output is expected to accelerate throughout the third quarter as more capacity comes online. As a result, the team expects widespread availability in the back half of the fiscal year. Compared with Nvidia's older generation H100, the GB300 is delivering a 10x increase in inference performance with reasoning models (the latest version of large language models), according to management. 3. Total cost of ownership: One factor driving demand for Blackwell is energy efficiency gains being realized with new chips versus Hopper -- and this helps advance our understanding of the total cost of ownership of Nvidia's technology. This was an especially big theme of Jim's heading into the print. The crux of it all is whether Nvidia's customers are actually seeing a return by spending billions on its chips and the server systems and networking technology paired with them. Looking to the GB300 versus Hopper, in particular, Kress noted that a GB300 NVL72 AI factory can deliver a 10x increase in tokens per watt -- a massively important factor as energy is quickly proving to be a bottle neck in compute. Later in the call, Kress went on to say that Blackwell's efficiency gains are enabling companies to monetize their compute at unprecedented scale." That's a huge win for Nvidia and its customers as efficiency gains reduce the total cost of ownership as a data center can pump out significantly more compute without increasing power consumption. Huang elaborated on this dynamic in response to a question about why some of its customers continue to shell out money for Nvidia chips at the same time they're developing in-house chips. "Not only are we the most energy efficient, our [performance] per watt is the best of any computing platform. And in a world of power-limited data centers, [performance] per watt drives directly to revenues. And because the performance per dollar is so incredible, you also have extremely great margins." 4. H20 and China : Kress did confirm that some China customers have already received licenses from the U.S. government to resume purchases of the H20, a throttled-back version of Hopper chips designed to comply with Washington's previous export restrictions. However, despite the interest, nothing has yet been shipped based on those licenses as management is looking for more clarity from the U.S. and Chinese governments. As a result, Nvidia saw a $4 billion sequential decline in H20 sales -- though $650 million worth of H20 chips were sold to customers outside of China -- and opted to not include any H20 sales to China in its outlook. That's hardly surprising to us. Nevertheless, the opportunity remains, with Kress saying: "If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 billion to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3. And if we had more orders, we can bill more." Nvidia continues to work toward the approval of a Blackwell-generation chip into China, which Huang reiterated has immense long-term potential given the technology ecosystem in the country. He called it the second largest computing market in the world behind the U.S. He said by his estimation, China would be a $50 billion opportunity this year alone for Nvidia were the company able to address it with competitive products, growing at a rate of about 50% a year. Equally important, Huang called out all the innovation taking place in China, noting that "the vast majority of the leading open source models are created in China," and that "about 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China." As a result, he believes it important that American companies are allowed to address the Chinese market. Aside from the revenue opportunity, there is also the argument that it's to the U.S.'s advantage to standardize the world's AI research on American-developed hardware. Not only does it make others more reliant on the U.S., it also means that advances coming out of China -- think open source models like Deep Seek -- can be taken advantage of by U.S. developers also working within the Nvidia ecosystem. Time will tell if Blackwell receives approval from Washington to sell into the Chinese market, but Huang said he sees it as "a real possibility," adding "we just have to keep advocating, the sensibility of, and the importance of, American tech companies to be able to lead and win the AI race and help make the American tech stack the global standard." Guidance Looking to the third quarter, management's outlook was better than expected, though some may have been looking for the guidance to be further ahead of consensus estimates than it ultimately was. As we noted in our preview note, a beat with strong guidance was the minimum we needed to see given the recent strength in the stock. Revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, ahead of the $53.14 billion LSEG consensus estimate. Importantly, the company is not assuming any H20 shipments to China in this outlook. Adjusted gross margins are expected to be 73.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points, better than the 72.8% estimate compiled by FactSet. Expectations for adjusted operating expenses in the fiscal third quarter of $4.2 billion are about in line with expectations. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings after the bell

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attends the "Winning the AI Race" Summit in Washington D.C., U.S., July 23, 2025. Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the bell. Here's how Nvidia is expected to do versus LSEG consensus estimates: That would represent 53% year-over-year revenue growth for Nvidia, which carries a market cap of more than $4 trillion and is already the most valuable company in the world. That type of growth would add to a streak of explosive growth for the chipmaker, which has been on a tear since the arrival of OpenAI's ChatGPT in late 2022 ushered in the generative artificial intelligence era and created insatiable demand for graphics processing processing units, or GPUs. Nvidia's revenue growth has been driven by its data center business, which accounts for about 88% of the company's total sales. There are two key questions analysts will want Nvidia to answer about its data center business: How are the current generation of chips doing? And what's the state of the company's business in China? Analysts will want any color that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang can give them about how sales of the company's Blackwell chips are going. Earlier this year, Nvidia said that Blackwell sales would be limited by the number of racks the company can make, not how many customers wanted to buy them. Blackwell comes in several different configurations, including one called GB200 that are typically sold in a finished rack computer that has 72 GPUs and costs millions of dollars. "That's probably going to be the most important thing, because I think right now, demand is clearly outstripping supply," KeyBanc analyst John Vinh told CNBC. The other big question facing Nvidia is its China business. In 2023, it introduced a slowed-down chip, called the H20, specifically to comply with export controls to China. In April, the Trump administration said the H20 would require a license. A month later, Nvidia said it would lose out on $8 billion in sales to China. The Trump administration in July said it would grant those licenses. But the Chinese government has signaled in August that China-based technology companies should use homegrown chips, raising questions about demand in that country. Most analysts expect Nvidia to completely exclude China from its guidance. According to LSEG estimates, Nvidia is expected to guide to nearly $53 billion in sales for its fiscal third quarter, which would represent 51% annual growth.

Nvidia's quarterly report will gauge the temperature of the AI craze

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia is poised to release a quarterly report that's expected provide a better sense about whether the stock market has been riding on an overhyped bubble or whether it's being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. The financial results due out Wednesday afternoon have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers scattered throughout the boom. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion, shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

What Nvidia's earnings mean for the stock market and AI trade

Nvidia's closely watched earnings report showed weaker-than-expected sales at its data center business, though the stock's pullback in extended trading may prove short-lived with investors still believing in the artificial intelligence trade. The chipmaker beat Wall Street's expectations for fiscal second-quarter earnings and gave a stronger current-quarter revenue forecast than anticipated. But shares tumbled in after-hours trading as second-quarter data center revenue came in slightly below the Street's consensus view. Still, data center revenue soared 56% from a year ago and made up 88% of total sales. Nvidia said it didn't sell any of its H20 processors to customers in China during the period, but it released $180 million worth of inventory to a client based elsewhere. The knee-jerk reaction over the data center revenue miss may be more about how Wall Street calculated its estimates than it is about Nvidia's performance, said Gene Munster, a co-founder at Deepwater Asset Management. That's because changes to export rules for chips sent to China hurt the numbers, Munster said. He added, he wouldn't be surprised to see the stock trade higher in Thursday's session as investors realize that the miss doesn't bolster broader fears about the AI trade. "We knew there was going to be noise, and you got to work a little bit harder to get to the core of what's going on," Munster said. "This was not a resounding reassurance for the AI investors, because they don't want to have to do any math." Future of AI trade The report is being used as a gauge of how the AI trade will fare going forward. After two years of AI becoming increasingly mainstream and driving associated stocks up, questions linger around the longevity of the current boom. Wednesday's report come as AI plays have largely stalled out in recent weeks. Both shares of Nvidia and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) haven't seen much movement since August began. NVDA SMH 1M mountain Nvidia and SMH ETF, 1-month Nvidia has been viewed as a barometer for the broader AI industry given its size and leadership. It's become a favorite of retail investors in recent years and has been included in the "Magnificent Seven," a group that's been credited with driving the market to records. Despite that enthusiasm, earnings reports haven't been a positive catalyst for the stock recently. Following the prior four earnings releases, the stock was down a week and month later in all but one instance, according to JPMorgan data. Yet Munster said investors should focus more on the guidance -- which he described as good -- than short-term moves in the stock. "I think the stock rallies tomorrow, but the bear case is going to still float around," Munster said. "I don't know what these stocks are going to do over the next month," he added. "The outlook was really strong, and I think that eventually they'll be rewarded for that." Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland similarly described the immediate move as a knee-jerk over-reaction CNBC's "Fast Money" Wednesday night. "These numbers were just fine," he said Broader market implications What Nvidia's stock does from here can have big implications for the broader market, given its position as the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market cap. More than $1 million of that market value was earned this year alone. It also accounts for 8% of the S & P 500 . Given that, the looming question has been: Can the broad index continue rising to all-time highs -- as it did on Wednesday ahead of the report -- if such a big name sputters out? The market will likely enter a digestion phase if Nvidia shares don't rally in the near-term, said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He said the market's next leg higher is more likely to be driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans than it is the AI trade. While Nvidia may be in for a pullback, it's not unheard of for the stock to trade sideways before returning to a rally -- especially after its big run off April lows, Woods said. "I think this turns away the focus on the chip story and returns the focus back to the Fed," Woods said. "Nvidia is still trading near all time highs. ... This isn't going to be the catalyst to get us to that next level."

Nvidia Earnings Show Sales Jump Amid Strong Demand for A.I. Chips

Nvidia, the artificial intelligence chipmaker, was crowned the world's first $4 trillion public company last month and has become perhaps the most important factor determining the direction of the stock market. On Wednesday, the Silicon Valley company reported results that showed that spending on A.I. infrastructure remains robust, easing the anxieties of Wall Street and investors around the world. Concerns over whether tech companies would continue shelling out billions to build A.I. data centers -- spending that has helped prop up the economy -- had mounted in recent months. But Nvidia's sales rose 56 percent to $46.74 billion in the three months that ended in July, just topping Wall Street's expectations. Profit increased more than 59 percent to $26.42 billion. Revenue in the current quarter is projected to rise 54 percent from a year ago to $54 billion, as tech companies pour money into data centers. The forecast was in line with Wall Street's prediction for $53.9 billion, but the company said that its estimates didn't include any sales for China, which would lift its revenue higher. "The A.I. race is on," said Jensen Huang, Nvidia's chief executive, in a statement. He said the company's chips were "at its center." Shares of Nvidia fell more than 3 percent in after-hours trading. Nvidia's results have been closely watched since OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, igniting an A.I. boom. The company's fortunes have soared as tech companies have flocked to buy its chips, which are ideal for powering the development of A.I. Nvidia has grown into the market's most significant stock, accounting for 7.5 percent of every dollar in the S&P 500, up from 3 percent in December. Its results also influence the values of tech and energy companies with A.I. businesses. "The question has been: Will the A.I. wave continue or could it meaningfully slow down?" said Melissa Otto, the head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha. Failing to meet expectations would be "like a grenade on the market," she said. "It could blow up a lot of things." In recent months, demand for Nvidia's newest chip, the Blackwell, has been especially scrutinized. Sales of the product, released late last year, have accelerated, with the company distributing about 72,000 Blackwell chips a week for an estimated price of $30,000 each. The chip has contributed to increased spending on data centers by Meta, Google and other cloud computing companies. In July, Meta said it would spend $7 billion more on data centers than planned this year, and Google said it would spend an additional $10 billion. Yet Nvidia has faced challenges, namely getting caught in the broader U.S.-Chinese power struggle. China is the world's largest chip market, and Mr. Huang has said Nvidia needs to be there because half of the world's A.I. developers are Chinese. But it has needed permission from Washington and Beijing to operate there. In April, the Trump administration blocked Nvidia from selling its H20 chip, which was made specifically for Chinese companies, over concerns the chips could be used to help China's A.I. industry and military. After Mr. Huang lobbied to reverse that decision, President Trump agreed in August to allow the sales. China later summoned Mr. Huang to Beijing to discuss its concerns about the security of Nvidia's chips. It later discouraged Chinese companies from buying the H20. Analysts estimated that Nvidia would reap $16 billion in revenue from China this year and have projected that sales there could eclipse $56 billion next year, which would be a major boost to the company's total revenue. But Nvidia said in a news release that it has not assumed it will have any sales in China in the current quarter. Mr. Huang has spoken with the Trump administration about selling a modified version of the company's Blackwell chip, which would be 30 percent to 50 percent less powerful than the chips sold in the United States. Lennart Heim, a tech analyst at RAND Corporation, a think tank, said Chinese companies would most likely buy two of those chips at a premium price and piece them together to get more performance. "If this chip gets approved, there would be massive demand," Mr. Heim said. "It's significantly better than any chip China can produce, and they would love it."

Investors Expect Nvidia's Earnings to Move the S&P More Than Powell's Speech

When Nvidia, the chip producer, reports earnings next week, investors expect the S&P 500 to have a bigger reaction than when the Fed chair delivers a big speech on Friday. There are plenty of data points arriving over the coming weeks that could trip up the runaway stock market. On Friday, the Federal Reserve chair delivers a hotly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Not long after that, the Labor Department will release the latest update on hiring, and then there's an important reading on inflation. When stock investors look through the end of September, however, they are most focused on the news coming from just one company. A financial report released next Wednesday by Nvidia, the chip producer, is expected to produce the S&P's biggest one-day reaction over the next month. The forecast for that market move is reflected in recent options activity -- derivatives that give an investor the right to buy or sell a stock, or an index of stocks, at a future date for a preset price. Investors use options to make bets on the direction of the market and to protect against the potential for the market to move against them. According to S&P 500 options data from Citi Global Markets, investors are positioned for a 0.8-percentage-point move -- in either direction -- on Friday, depending on what the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, says in his speech at the central bank's annual conference at Jackson Hole. Prices for next Thursday -- the first chance investors have to react to Nvidia's earnings released the night before -- imply a move in the index of 0.9 percentage points in either direction. The Fed still looms large over financial markets, with policy decisions that can move markets around the world. But the fact that quarterly results from one technology company focused on artificial intelligence can match, in the view of equity investors, the impact of some of the most widely tracked economic data and central bank activity reflects the significant influence that a handful of behemoth tech companies have on today's stock market. "On a relative basis, Nvidia's earnings is the largest event for the S&P 500 for the next month," said Stuart Kaiser, an equity strategist at Citi. "For equity investors," he added, "particularly in the S&P 500, the A.I. theme, and the impact of that on returns, is on par with the Fed now." As Nvidia has grown, swelling to a $4 trillion valuation last month, so has its weighting in the S&P 500. It now makes up almost 8 percent of the index. The last time Nvidia reported earnings, in May, its stock rose 3.25 percent and the S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent. After reporting earnings in February, Nvidia sank over 8 percent and the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 percent. Nvidia has led rivals in the race to dominate the high-powered chips used to power A.I., and next week investors are looking for signs that the relentless demand for Nvidia's products will continue. The company's earnings could help answer another big question looming over the stock market: whether there is a bubble in A.I., as some have speculated this week. Other large companies in the index, like Apple and Microsoft, are also tied to the A.I. theme, so Nvidia's financial results are likely to affect these other big stocks as well. "It's always a big deal," said Stacy Rasgon, an Nvidia analyst at Morningstar, joking that he had perhaps become "jaded" by the frequency of big moves in Nvidia's stock price. For comparison, when Mr. Powell spoke at Jackson Hole last year, the S&P 500 rose a little over 1 percent. The year before, his remarks were followed by a 0.7 percent increase in the index. Mr. Powell's address this week could shift investors' expectations for monetary policy and cuts to interest rate, both of which are crucial inputs for modeling the path ahead for the economy and stock market. The Trump administration has repeatedly complained about the Federal Reserve's keeping rates elevated, calling on the central bank to lower them rapidly, which would probably make borrowing cheaper and accelerate the economy. It would also help President Trump fulfill a campaign promise to bring interest rates down. So far, the Fed has resisted, warning that rapidly lowering interest rates risks heating up the economy at the wrong time, potentially stoking inflation and raising prices for consumers.

'It's Not Going to Slow Down': The Tech Stock Everyone Is Watching This Week

Wall Street is narrowing in on must-watch tech giant Nvidia (NVDA) this week, as the $4 trillion semiconductor company reports earnings amid an ongoing skid in the technology sector. "When the group goes down and the most important stock in the group reports earnings, that is going to have a bigger impact than usual," Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Reuters. That impact has analysts rushing to change their projections for the release of Nvidia's quarterly report on Wednesday, with multiple influential predictions now adjusted to show a higher price target of $194 per share for that 12-month period, the highest amount for which the shares have ever traded. The stock closed up more than 3% at the end of trading Friday at $177.99 amid a broader market rally led by other tech and finance companies. We covered the crypto companies that pushed that surge earlier today. "What you’re seeing is the recognition that growth at Nvidia is rock solid," Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, told Bloomberg. "Analysts are raising projections because they simply need to, the stock is not going to slow down." It's been quite a year for Nvidia. The stock has been caught in the Trump administration's tariff wars and fell sharply in April. It has since clawed back about three-quarters of those losses. But that dip followed a chilly beginning to 2025, as it became clear that even Nvidia would have tough competition from compatriot company DeepSeek, which rolled out a discount AI model that astonished the market. Recently, the stock wobbled this week as the broader AI market felt the effects of being dubbed a "bubble" by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. More immediately, Nvidia has signaled it is willing to play ball with Trump's aggressive attempts to take stakes in major tech companies like Apple and AMD, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Friday. Huang said that Nvidia is in talks with the American government to produce a new computer chip, a move that coincides with a joint announcement that the U.S. will take a 10% ownership slice of Intel. “I’m offering a new product to China for ... AI data centers, the follow-on to H20,†Huang said. But he added that “That’s not our decision to make. It’s up to, of course, the United States government. And we’re in dialogue with them, but it’s too soon to know.†In the wake of Altman's comments, however, Nvidia's share price fell to $174 from $182 in 48 hours, as proponents of the AI bubble theory came out in force. Still, no matter how much external pressure Nvidia feels from competitors and a rapidly evolving landscape of technology, it still remains the dominant player because of its sheer size and faster moves out of the starting blocks with its AI. It also has far more reach and potentially a wider variety of clients for its more diversified set of products. "[Nvidia] commentary on the demand side... should be more bullish just because their largest customers have all kind of upped their capex guidance over the last few quarters," Roach told Reuters. In fact, it is so big and has grown at such a scorching pace that if its quarterly revenue is up less than 70% year over year when it reports Wednesday, the company would likely see its share price fall. A growth in revenue at that rate would be a major coup for most other companies, 24/7 Wall Street points outâ€"for Nvidia, however, it would alarm investors who are spooked by the idea that it may eventually even slow down.

Nvidia Earnings Expectations Buoy Market Ahead of Report Nvidia Q2 2026 earnings

The S&P 500 surged ahead of earnings results to hit a record high of 6,481.40 Wednesday just ahead of quarterly earnings from the world's largest company, chipmaker Nvidia. "Nvidia is going to produce humongous revenue gains over the next nine months, on top of an already humongous revenue base," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital, told Reuters. "Investors should prepare themselves for a world where Nvidia is a double-digit percentage of the S&P 500." Why do Nvidia's earnings move the market so much? Nvidia dominates the AI market, which means the company's earnings results are highly anticipated each quarter. But the stakes were particularly high going into Wednesday's earnings. Last month, Nvidia became the first company to hit $4 trillion market value, and the pressure was on for the tech giant to justify that valuation. Also weighing on investors were talks of an AI bubble, stemming from a worrisome new AI report from MIT researchers. The report spooked investors with its finding that despite the bold investments, AI pilot programs in the corporate world have failed to translate to substantial revenue gains. Investor fears were stoked further when in the same week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed that he believes AI is a bubble. Trump/China trade tensions weigh on Nvidia Back in May, Nvidia executives had to revise their revenue expectations for this quarter down by about $8 billion due to President Trump's decision to impose export control restrictions on the company's sales to China. The company has been on a policy rollercoaster ride in its efforts to sell AI chips in China, one of Nvidia's major markets, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates. After banning the sale of Nvidia's H20 chips to China, President Trump reversed that decision in July, thanks to Huang's efforts. In first quarter earnings, Nvidia incurred $4.5 billion in charges from excess H20 inventory. Nvidia executives had shared that they expected to have recorded an additional $2.5 billion in H20 chip sales, but it failed to materialize due to the restrictions. But in exchange for the policy reversal, Trump demanded that Nvidia and competitor AMD both give the U.S. government a 15% cut of their chips revenue in China. In response to that, Beijing has reportedly started raising concerns about Nvidia's chips having kill switches and backdoors, and urged Chinese companies to not use them. Nvidia's robotics bet The numbers come as Nvidia has started to grow its bet on robotics and autonomous vehicles in the past few months. At the company's annual shareholders meeting in June, Huang said that he expects robotics to provide the largest growth for the company after AI. The two combined, he told investors, represent "a multitrillion-dollar growth opportunity."

"AI overhype" or the real deal? Nvidia earnings will provide answers

Why it matters: The bellwether AI stock has mushroomed into an outsized force in the S&P 500, now accounting for about 8% of the index. * That's the highest weight of any single stock since data collection started in 1981, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk. The big picture: Nvidia earnings reports have become arguably the single most important quarterly release for the broader market. * "The worries are that if Nvidia doesn't deliver, then all the worries about AI overhype and extreme valuations wouldn't look so misplaced," writes Hardika Singh, analyst at Fundstrat. "And if not for Nvidia, can the AI party go on?" Zoom in: The market will be focused a few key issues, including: How Nvidia addresses ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. * The company agreed to give the U.S. 15% of the China sales of its H20 chips in exchange for export allowances, but Beijing has reportedly urged companies not to buy them, concerned about their security and miffed about their downgraded specs. * Per The information, Nvidia has now halted production of the H20 while CEO Jensen Huang works to reassure Beijing on the security issue. * "If that report is correct, then we're going to want to hear a lot more detail from Nvidia as they're reportedly about to introduce a newer chip, the B30A, that is intended to replace the H2O," writes Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar. What the company says about future demand from hyperscalers for AI infrastructure. * "This tech bull market in our view is being fueled by the biggest transformational tech spending cycle in the last 40 years," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives writes. * "The June quarter message from Big Tech: investment in AI will exceed expectations for the next year, a sign we are still early in the buildout," writes analyst Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. "A closer look at the comments suggests that when Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet report September and December results, they should all guide for a measurable increase in capex in CY26 compared to current expectations." Whether an earnings beat is enough to inspire investors to keep buying the stock, which is up more than 30% this year. * The market is accustomed to Nvidia topping expectations, so it's more a question of how much it would actually take to wow investors. * "The bear-case argues that the exuberance toward NVDA is well-priced into the stock and, at current levels, there is a slim margin of error for the company in terms of supply-side execution," according to Stifel analyst Ruben Roy. The bottom line: The report will influence the ongoing debate on whether the market is experiencing an AI bubble.

Nvidia set to report second quarter earnings in test of AI boom

All eyes will be on chipmaker's latest financials as company sets tone for the rest of the artificial intelligence industry Nvidia is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, in a first test of investor appetite since last week's mass AI-stock selloff. All eyes will be on the chipmaker's latest financials as the company sets the tone for the rest of the AI industry after a turbulent week in the sector. Several tech stocks saw shares tumble last week amid growing questions over whether AI-driven companies are being overvalued, including an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail to grow company's revenues and statements from the OpenAI chief executive, Sam Altman, who said investors were possibly overhyping several companies. Nvidia, which became the first company to reach a $4tn market cap in July, saw a 3.5% drop in shares early last week - its biggest drop in months. Stocks recovered modestly by early Wednesday, in anticipation of the company's pivotal earnings report. Still, some analysts remain bullish on the so-called AI revolution, especially as major technology companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet are investing heavily in AI infrastructure. "We are still in the early days of the AI revolution as the use cases are just starting to massively expand as more companies recognize the value creation being driven by a handful of tech companies," said the Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. Those companies include Nvidia, Ives said. "This week will be another flex the muscles moment for Jensen [Huang] and Nvidia as well as the AI revolution bull thesis," Ives said. Wall Street expects the company to post $1.01 in earnings per share on $46.05bn in revenue, according to Fact Set data. That's despite an expected hit to the company's bottom line from the restrictions on sales to China. Earlier this year, Trump banned AI chip sales in China, a move that resulted in a $4.5bn blow to Nvidia's finances during its fiscal first quarter. In August, the company agreed to give the US government a 15% cut of its H20 chips to China in return for export licences. China, in turn, has voiced security concerns over the chips, and is ramping up production of its own domestic alternatives. Experts expect the restrictions to have some impact on the company's earnings. Though Nvidia's chief executive, Jensen Huang, initially projected the company would lose $8bn in the second quarter due to the ban on China chip sales, that was before the company struck a deal with the US government. Analysts expect the company to continue to perform well but are wary of how these various external factors will affect the level of growth. "The continued growth in financials and product demand, coupled with sustained demand for datacenter products like Blackwell, highlights their strong leadership position," Forrester's senior analyst Alvin Nguyen said in a statement. "It'll be interesting to see how geopolitical tensions, particularly around China, impact expected demand and revenue. The evolving AI ecosystem, adoption of Nvidia's AI software, and innovations like on-chip photonics and robotics are key factors shaping their technological edge and new market opportunities."

AI mania or AI bubble? Nvidia's earnings -- and its China exposure -- will decide how Wall Street answers that question

Nvidia's earnings aren't just about Nvidia anymore. The $4 trillion chipmaker's quarterly financials have become a litmus test for the AI boom -- and, by extension, for the whole stock market. Constituting 8% of the market cap-weighted in S&P 500 Index and with an unrivaled grip on the chips that power generative AI, Wall Street now treats Nvidia's results more like a macroeconomic indicator than as a report card on a single company. The earnings announcement has even become a cultural phenomenon complete with watch parties. Investors are bracing for the company's latest quarterly results due after Wednesday's market close, with trading in Nvidia options implying expectations that the stock will move 6%, up or down -- equal to a $260 billion-dollar change in Nvidia's market value. In the three months since the company last gave investors a quarterly update, back in May, Nvidia's stock has surged 35%. But the tension surrounding what is already the most closely watched earnings event of the season has been ratcheted up by recent jitters over what some worry is a dangerous financial bubble in AI-related stocks. And uncertainty about Nvidia's China business continues to loom large. Wall Street analysts are looking for Nvidia's Q2 revenue to surge 53% year-over-year to $46 billion, at the high end of Nvidia's guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales, the crux of Nvidia's business, are expected to come in close to $40 billion. But with Nvidia's shares having gained so much in recent months, a miss on Wednesday, or cautious guidance tied to China restrictions, could send the stock plummeting. Nvidia may remain one of the greatest beneficiaries of the generative AI boom, but a critical part of the company's business has also become a geopolitical football as the U.S. and China compete for technological dominance. In April, Washington began requiring export licenses for the company's H20 chips -- stripped-down versions of Nvidia's top-of-the-line AI chips that were specifically designed to comply with the U.S. export controls that took effect in late 2022 and were tightened again in 2023. Those tighter export licenses forced the company to take a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 tied to unsold inventory and purchase commitments. From there, things only got more complicated for Nvidia's China business. After Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, the White House said it would permit the company to sell H20s after all. Nvidia applied for export licenses but faced extensive delays, thanks to the tougher U.S. stance and Chinese buyers hesitating to commit to purchasing. Then, earlier this month, Nvidia and AMD struck a deal with the Trump administration to grant licenses in exchange for a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement on China chip sales. But, as shipments of H20 chips resumed, China began discouraging companies from buying them, expressing concerns that the information Nvidia was asking customers to submit for U.S. government review could contain sensitive information. The Chinese government also reportedly claimed it had found evidence that Nvidia's chip might contain backdoors that would allow U.S. spy agencies to extract data on how they were being used. In addition, comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about providing China with Nvidia's "fourth-best chips" were considered "deeply insulting" by Chinese officials, according to the Financial Times. Finally, last week Huang announced in Taipei that Nvidia has started winding down production of the H20 chip and begun work on a more powerful successor, saying the company was working on offering a "new product for AI data centers," modified to reduce some of its performance, as required by the United States. He said he was seeking the Trump administration's approval to sell the chip. "It's up to, of course, the United States government," Huang said. "And we're in dialogue with them, but it's too soon to know." As a result of all the uncertainty, analysts predict Nvidia will not allude to China revenue in the earnings report. "I suspect they will not count, nor forecast China revenue, there's too much uncertainty involved," said Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cabrian-AI Research. Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, told Fortune that Nvidia now has two primary groups to please: stockholders and the Trump administration. "They're caught between a rock and a hard place," he said. "It's a really strange situation we're in now where the government in the U.S. actually has their hands into the pockets, into the wallets of these companies." Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia faces another challenge: growing unease that the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble. This would strike at the heart of Nvidia's business and its stratospheric valuation -- the company trades at more than 40 times its projected earnings -- which rely on ever-growing demand for its powerful GPUs. Nvidia's growth is heavily concentrated in a handful of cloud giants, including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft, as well as highly-funded AI startups like OpenAI. If those companies slow spending, Nvidia could suddenly lose its biggest buyers. "I do believe that everyone's concerned about an AI bubble," said Freund, though he added that those concerns have lasted for three years already. He did not, he emphasized, think it would pop now. "I think there still two to five years of growth left," he said. Gold agreed, saying there were "at least several quarters, if not a couple of years of good profits" for Nvidia, but he cautioned at some point, if the market crashed, that money spent on chips would go away. "It concerns me," he said. "This time, I'm sure the earnings will still be great -- [Nvidia is] selling everything they can build at a ridiculously inflated prices, which is fine, if you can get away with that." But from a broader market perspective, he added, the massive AI data center build-outs "can't go on forever." That's why, said Freund, Huang is actually working to get investor attention to shift from the data center-centric view to other areas of Nvidia's business, including its automotive and robotics work: "That's his game right now, how to get investors to shift to a more holistic view of AI as it moves out of the data center and into the real world." But those investors are likely more interested in the here and now -- what tomorrow's numbers show. Let the watch parties begin.

Nvidia beats on $46.7B revenue -- and no China H20 sales

Nvidia is once again putting the market's AI obsession under the microscope. The company reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings after the bell on Wednesday, posting revenue of $46.7 billion and earnings per share of $1.05 (non-GAAP) -- topping Wall Street's consensus forecast of about $46 billion in revenue and $1.01 EPS. That top line was up 56% from a year earlier and 6% from the prior quarter, underscoring the still-insatiable demand for Nvidia's AI accelerators. Its data center division -- the beating heart of the AI boom -- delivered $41.1 billion in revenue, also up 56% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Within that, Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture surged 17% sequentially as shipments ramped. Gaming, its legacy business, added $4.3 billion, up 49% year-over-year. Other divisions also delivered double-digit growth. Professional Visualization revenue rose 32% from a year ago to $601 million, while Automotive climbed 69% to $586 million, reflecting Nvidia's push into robotics and autonomous driving platforms. Though those areas are still small compared with its data center business, those lines are increasingly positioned as future growth pillars. Shares were little changed in after-hours trading, reflecting a market that had already priced in a swing of about 8-10%. With a market capitalization hovering above $4.4 trillion, Nvidia has become the single most important stock in the S&P 500 -- accounting for roughly 8% of the entire index. Profitability also surged. Net income nearly hit $26.4 billion (GAAP) for the quarter, up 59% year-over-year. Gross margins climbed to 72.7% on a non-GAAP basis, excluding one-time adjustments linked to its H20 chip inventory. Free cash flow reached $13.5 billion, giving Nvidia ample room to fund both research and shareholder returns. And shareholder returns are now a headline in their own right. The company returned $24.3 billion to investors in the first half of the year through buybacks and dividends, and its board just added another $60 billion to its repurchase authorization -- without expiration. That buyback firepower is among the largest ever announced by a U.S. corporation. The geopolitical wild card increasingly lives in Washington, not Santa Clara. U.S. export restrictions continue to block Nvidia's most advanced chips from reaching China. The company has created workarounds such as the H20, but those shipments have been whipsawed by shifting licensing rules. In the second quarter, no H20 sales were made to China, though Nvidia booked about $650 million in H20 sales to a non-Chinese customer and recorded a one-time $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory. Meanwhile, Beijing regulators have discouraged adoption over security concerns, highlighting how policy rather than technology can dictate demand. Looking ahead, guidance will be just as closely watched as the backward-looking numbers. Nvidia told investors it expects revenue of about $54 billion (up 2%) in the third quarter, with non-GAAP gross margins in the 73-74% range. That outlook assumes no H20 shipments to China, suggesting any policy shifts could create upside. CEO Jensen Huang was characteristically bullish: "Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for," he said in a press release, adding that demand is "extraordinary" and production is "ramping at full speed." CFO Colette Kress said the company expects to exit the fiscal year with margins in the mid-70s, pointing to sustainable profitability even amid volatile geopolitics. Beyond the quarter, Nvidia's results are a proxy for the broader AI economy. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are projected to spend more than $325 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, much of it on AI infrastructure. Each cloud capex update now serves as a shadow earnings guide for Nvidia. Still, the longer Nvidia dominates, the more rivals circle the moat. AMD is pushing its MI300 accelerators, while hyperscalers are designing their own silicon. Even modest defections could shave billions off Nvidia's trajectory. And because Taiwan's TSMC manufactures most of its chips, any disruption in the supply chain -- from fabs to high-bandwidth memory -- could rattle results. For now, though, the story remains familiar: Nvidia delivers another blowout quarter, and the market keeps rewarding it. But with a sky-high valuation riding on quarterly beats -- and policy risks that can rewrite its order book overnight -- the stakes for Huang's empire have never been higher.

Nvidia's earnings report will show whether AI boom is overhyped or not

Nvidia became the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. The latest financial results are due on Wednesday afternoon. They have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers at the center of the boom. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion. That was shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007.

Nvidia beats Q2 estimates, forecasts higher revenue as stocks slide

The AI market bellwether expects revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the third quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. Shares of the world's most valuable firm fell 2.5% in extended trading. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's year-to-date rise of nearly 10%. But the company has been caught in the crossfire of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as the world's two largest economies claw for dominance of generative AI technology. The company said it had not assumed any H20 chip shipments to China in the outlook and that there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter.

Nvidia beats forecasts, but weaker data center sales drag down stock - SiliconANGLE

Nvidia beats forecasts, but weaker data center sales drag down stock In what has become the most highly anticipated report of the tech earnings season, Nvidia Corp. couldn't quite make investors happy. The maker of graphics processing units that power the latest artificial intelligence boom posted revenue of $46.7 billion for the 2026 fiscal second quarter, up 56% year-over-year and ahead of the consensus analyst estimate of $46.1 billion. Earnings per diluted share of $1.05 also beat estimates of $1.01. However, the company slightly missed its data center sales forecasts, sending the stock down more than 3% in early after-hours trading. The Data Center division generated sales of $41.1 billion, up 56% from $26.2 billion a year earlier, but just short of the $41.3 billion analysts had expected. The company's newest AI offering, the Blackwell Data Center platform, grew 17% sequentially over the previous quarter. Chief Executive Jensen Huang (pictured) said production of the Blackwell Ultra chip line is proceeding at full throttle and "demand is extraordinary." "They're going to get criticism for missing the data center number, but I don't think a slight miss on a huge number like that indicates any weakness in their business," said Scott Bickley, an advisory fellow at Info-Tech Research Group Inc. AI-optimized rack-based systems, which are a major product expansion area for Nvidia, are seeing widespread adoption, said Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress. "The current run rate is back at full speed, producing approximately 1,000 racks per week," she said. "This output is expected to accelerate even further throughout the third quarter as additional capacity comes online." Another growth category- networking - delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, up 46% sequentially and 98% over a year ago. Automotive revenue of $586 million was up 69% from a year ago, driven by strong adoption of new self-driving platforms. The company's gross margin of 72.7% was up sharply from 61% a year ago but down sequentially from 75.7% last quarter. Gaming revenue hit a record $4.3 billion, up 14% over last quarter increase and 49% over a year ago. Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue of around $54 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The figure included no shipments to China. Sales to China continue to overhang Wall Street's expectations. Although the company booked no sales of its H20 chip to Chinese customers during the quarter because of government restrictions, it released $180 million worth of H20 inventory for sale outside of China. The H20 is a specialized, less powerful version of the company's advanced AI chips, designed specifically to navigate U.S. export controls. Despite its lower power compared to the company's top-tier chips, the H20's utility in inference and its inclusion of high-bandwidth memory are important to Chinese tech firms as they develop their own AI capabilities. "U.S. government officials have expressed an expectation that the government will receive 15% of the revenue generated from licensed H20 sales, but to date, the USG has not published a regulation codifying such requirement," Kress said. "We have not included H20 in our Q3 outlook as we continue to work through geopolitical issues." Executives said export restrictions weigh on revenues. "If geopolitical tensions subside, we anticipate $2 billion to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3," Kress said. Nvidia executives and industry watchers said Nvidia's long-term outlook continues to dazzle. "Judging by the litany of partnerships that they listed on the press release, you can see them expanding into customized use cases and moving into other geographies outside of China," said Info-Tech's Bickley. "It seems like they're securing their hold in this space." Huang said the transition to agentic AI and reasoning systems could be a major growth driver going forward. "Where chat bots used to be one shot, AI now does research, thinks and creates a plan. It's called long thinking," he said. "The computation necessary for reasoning agentic AI models could be a hundred or a thousand times that of one-shot models. The amount of computation that has resulted from agentic AI has grown tremendously." Although Nvidia faces no immediate headwinds , its $4.4 trillion valuation and reliance on a few large hyperscaler customers has contributed to market jitters. With many people in the industry warning that AI is in a bubble, the question is how big the impact on Nvidia will be if and when it bursts. "Its stock is 10% of the value of the Nasdaq," Bickley said. "Once you get the numbers that big, at some point, they're going to tip over." But Huang said the long-term opportunity remains huge. "Over the next five years are going to scale into effectively a $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity," he said, noting that capital expenditures by the top four cloud service providers alone have grown by about $600 billion over the last two years. "We are in the beginning of this buildout in the technology advances have enabled AI to adapt and solve problems to many different industries," he said. Kevin Cook, senior stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research Inc., noted that Huang had characterized the opportunity at $1 trillion just a year ago. "Jensen said 'The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center,'" he said. "Nvidia is not in a race with anyone because they own 90% market share." Speaking before earnings were announced, Forrester Research Inc. senior Analyst Alvin Nguyen said Nvidia retains a "strong leadership position. The evolving AI ecosystem, adoption of Nvidia's AI software, and innovations like on-chip photonics and robotics are key factors shaping their technological edge and new market opportunities," he said.

Nvidia's quarterly report will gauge the temperature of the AI craze

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia is poised to release a quarterly report that's expected provide a better sense about whether the stock market has been riding on an overhyped bubble or whether it's being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. The financial results due out Wednesday afternoon have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers scattered throughout the boom. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion, shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

Chip giant Nvidia to report earnings as some warn of AI 'bubble'

It comes after President Trump temporarily banned its sale of chips to China. An earnings report to be released by chip giant Nvidia on Wednesday will offer a window into the health of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, which in recent years has become a key engine for stock market gains and economic growth. Nvidia, the $4 trillion company behind many of the chips fueling AI products, has expanded at a breakneck pace since an AI boom set off by the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2022. The California-based company saw its stock price soar nearly 700% over the ensuing two years. Analysts expect Nvidia to record $46.2 billion in revenue over three months ending in June, which would amount to a 53% jump compared to a year earlier. That would mark robust growth but it would come in well below a 122% spike in revenue enjoyed in the same quarter a year ago. Alongside continued growth, the company is weathering new challenges. President Donald Trump barred the sale of chips to China earlier this year, before revoking the ban in July. A month later, Trump struck an agreement with Nvidia allowing the company to sell chips in China if the firm hands over 15% of revenue generated by the exports to the U.S. Speaking at the White House earlier this month, the president recounted the agreement with Nvidia. "I said, 'If I'm going to do that, I want you to pay us as a country something, because I'm giving you a release,'" Trump said. In May, the company said it expected to suffer an $8 billion loss as result of restrictions imposed upon chip exports. In recent weeks, some prominent figures have warned of an AI bubble, casting doubt on the sustainability of the sector's gangbusters growth. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo, said last month that the AI bubble may exceed the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, suggesting that the top firms are overvalued. In an interview earlier this month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also said the AI industry had become a bubble. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes," Altman told tech publication The Verge. Still, the AI sector remains a bright spot for the U.S. economy. AI-related spending added a 0.5 percentage point boost to annualized gross domestic product growth over the first half of 2025, Pantheon Macroeconomics found.

Nvidia's quarterly report will gauge the temperature of the AI craze

SAN FRANCISCO -- Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia is poised to release a quarterly report that's expected provide a better sense about whether the stock market has been riding on an overhyped bubble or whether it's being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. The financial results due out Wednesday afternoon have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers scattered throughout the boom. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion, shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

Nvidia's earnings report will help to show whether the AI boom is overhyped or gaining steam

SAN FRANCISCO -- Chipmaker Nvidia will release a quarterly report Wednesday that could provide a better sense of whether the stock market has been riding an overhyped artificial intelligence bubble or is being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. The latest financial results are due out Wednesday afternoon. They have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers at the center of the boom. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion. That was shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

Nvidia's Quarterly Report Will Gauge the Temperature of the AI Craze

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia is poised to release a quarterly report that's expected provide a better sense about whether the stock market has been riding on an overhyped bubble or whether it's being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. The financial results due out Wednesday afternoon have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers scattered throughout the boom. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion, shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

Nvidia Earnings Are About to Move the Entire Stock Market

Want more stock market and economic analysis from Phil Rosen directly in your inbox? Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily's newsletter. One way or another, Nvidia is about to move markets. The most important stock in the world reports earnings after the bell Wednesday, and it's reliably the most market-moving release each quarter. Options data implies a 6 percent move in either direction this afternoon, a swing of roughly $260 billion in value. That would be below its three-year average of about 7.6 percent, according to data from ORATS. With a $4.34 trillion market capitalization, Nvidia now accounts for 7.9 percent of the S&P 500 -- the largest index weighting for any stock in history. Jay Woods, chief market strategist for Freedom Capital Markets, noted that Nvidia also dominates ETF exposure: "The bar keeps getting higher and the chipmaker keeps exceeding it," Woods said. "The growth projections continue to expand exponentially and there's been no slowdown in sight." Here's what Wall Street expects for Nvidia's fiscal second quarter, per LSEG: Only Nvidia shareholders would call those figures a slowdown. The same quarter last year, the chipmaker reported revenue and earnings growth of 122 percent and 151 percent, respectively. "The worries are that if Nvidia doesn't deliver, then all the worries about AI overhype and extreme valuations wouldn't look so misplaced," the Fundstrat team wrote in a note Tuesday. "And if not for Nvidia, can the AI party go on? Huang is the 'godfather of AI' after all." Investors will also be watching for updates related to China and tariffs. In April, President Trump had banned the sale of key chips to China, only to reverse the decision in July. The White House later worked out a deal for Nvidia to give the government 15% of the revenue secured from its H20 chip sales to China. "I bet that there'll be a dip in the stock, not necessarily after they report, but sooner or later and it'll probably be a result of Chinese trade talks and not the company's fundamentals at all," said Paul Meeks, managing director for Freedom Capital Markets. The final deadline for the 2025 Inc. Best in Business Awards is Friday, September 12, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply now.

AI bubble worries grow ahead of Nvidia earnings

Concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble across the U.S. technology sector are simmering ahead of the second-quarter earnings report from Nvidia, to be released after financial markets close on Wednesday. The maker of processors for data centers and server farms is seen as a bellwether for the AI subsector of the tech industry, which is facing concerns over its long-term profitability after huge investments in the wake of the 2022 release of OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot. Traders are bracing for swings upwards of 6 percent, or $260 billion, in the company's stock value, according to options pricing data, compared to moves of about 3 percent over the past several quarters. "The big event in corporate earnings will be Nvidia's results on Wednesday, which come as tech stocks had seen their biggest five-day pullback since April prior to Friday's rally," Deutsche Bank's Peter Sidorov and others wrote in a Monday note to investors. The pullback followed comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman about how AI might be experiencing a bubble, which is a period of sustained overvaluation that eventually pops when investors get cold feet or don't get the returns they expected. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes," Altman told The Verge. Others in the field of AI and analytics have expressed similar concerns about a possible bubble following the rapid adoption of the new technology. "It's had by ten times, fifty times the fastest adoption of any type of computer application ever. I don't know how much more it could bubble beyond the obvious success that it's already had," Jed Dougherty, head of AI architecture at Dataiku, an AI platform company, told The Hill. But despite AI's widespread usage and the aggressive marketing push from companies and tech investors, the prospects for profitability are far from a lock. A recent report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) found that 95 percent of organizations using AI are not making any money off of it despite the widespread promotion of the technology. "Just 5 percent of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable [profit and loss] impact. This divide does not seem to be driven by model quality or regulation," the researchers found. The report described the status of AI's commercial applicability as "high adoption, low transformation," noting that only two of eight major economic sectors were showing any "meaningful structural change." Media and professional services were the industries in which workflows were substantially affected by AI while healthcare, pharmaceuticals, retail, finance, manufacturing and energy saw little or no change related to the technology. Dataiku's Dougherty said that companies are nervous to relinquish control of essential business operations like sales and supply chain management to AI. "Having chatbots give advice is great, but having them replace workflows is really scary," he said. "Companies are much more concerned about putting into place truly autonomous systems that are making decisions about their business, even if those decisions are relatively low-level." Tech companies famously prioritize user adoption and market share over revenue growth, going into debt on the assumption that they'll be able to monetize themselves after they establish a customer base. But with 95 percent of companies not making any money off AI three years after its highly publicized arrival, the trend is nerve wracking for many investors. Facebook, which took five years to initially turn a profit, is considering downgrading its AI unit, the New York Times reported earlier this month. Total investment in the sector is difficult to estimate, since much of it is private, though investment firm Warden Capital estimated direct spending in AI-related chips and data centers at about $220 billion earlier this year. Whether future profitability can match and exceed that expenditure, or it falls short and exposes a bubble, remains to be seen. "It's kind of like the dot-com [era]," Jason Bishara, financial practice leader with NSI Insurance Group, told The Hill, speaking of general market conditions responding to surges in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors. "When the dot-coms collapsed and the vast majority of them disappeared, the good ones rose to the top and a lot of people made fortunes on them," he said. What's been lost in the marketing, lobbying and deregulatory push surrounding AI, tech workers say, is the fact that "AI" is actually a catch-all phrase that describes many different types of software products, some of which may be more commercially viable than others. Large language models based on machine learning can be structurally very different from the facial and voice recognition software based on neural networks, which are a type of filtering algorithm. Some of these formulas are better thought of as developments of older analytics software than a fundamentally new technology. "There's really a spectrum," Dougherty said. Even in the cases where it's commercially viable, AI could -- and has -- run afoul of the law, further limiting its use and making companies vulnerable to legal action. AI has exhibited racial bias when it comes to offering mortgage loans to aspiring homeowners, and it's been used in an algorithmic price-fixing scheme, according to the Justice Department. There are all sorts of other potential legal violations that the software could unwittingly commit as it seeks to optimize commercial returns. Another sign of potential stress in the tech sector came in the form of an unexpected 10-percent, $10 billion government stake in chipmaker Intel, which the Trump administration announced last week. Intel warned of "adverse reactions" from shareholders as a result of the government stake. The Company may experience other adverse consequences resulting from the announcement or completion of the transactions," the company wrote in an SEC filing. "Given the scarcity of recent US precedents ... it is difficult to foresee all the potential consequences."

Nvidia Reports Earnings Today. What You Need To Know

As the world's most valuable company, a big post-earnings move in Nvidia's value would have a broader market impact. Nvidia (NVDA), the AI chipmaker at the heart of the artificial intelligence boom, is set to release its second-quarter earnings after markets close later today, in what could prove to be a market-moving event. Shares were little changed near $182 in recent trading ahead of the results, though the stock has added more than a third of its value in 2025 as demand for its AI hardware surged. Analysts expect the chipmaker's sales could reach another quarterly record, estimates compiled by Visible Alpha show, despite an anticipated hit from China export curbs, with Nvidia's position as the world's largest AI chipmaker making it a bellwether for the industry. After Nvidia recently struck a revenue-sharing agreement with the Trump administration in exchange for licenses to resume sales of key AI chips to China, investors will likely be watching closely for what CEO Jensen Huang has to say about the company's outlook, as well as any updates on its next-generation product pipeline. Recent options pricing suggests traders anticipate Nvidia's stock could stand to move more than 6% by the end of the week, in what would be its biggest post-earnings move in more than a year. And as the world's most valuable company, Nvidia commands more influence over the S&P 500 than any other, with a reaction in its stock likely to have a broader market impact. The benchmark index edged 0.2% higher in recent trading ahead of the results, hovering just under its intraday highs and on track to close at a record if those gains hold. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.)

What Wall Street Analysts Think of Nvidia's Stock Ahead of Earnings

The company warned it could face an $8 billion hit from China export curbs. Nvidia (NVDA) is set to release its latest quarterly results after the market closes today, with analysts expecting the most valuable company in the world's sales could reach another record high, despite an anticipated hit from export curbs. The AI chipmaker is projected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 for the second quarter on an over 50% year-over-year jump in revenue to $46.52 billion, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. CEO Jensen Huang could also provide more details during the company's earnings call about the timing of new products, including Nvidia's next-generation Rubin lineup and a more powerful AI chip tailored for China's market. In May, Nvidia warned it could face an $8 billion hit from China export restrictions, and although the company recently struck a 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the Trump administration to resume sales of its H20 chip in China, Wednesday's report will still reflect the full impact of the restrictions. Despite near-term trade policy headwinds, Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the chipmaker's prospects. Of the 14 analysts with current ratings surveyed by Visible Alpha, 13 call the stock a "buy," compared to one "hold" rating. Their targets range from $155 to $225, with the majority above $200, suggesting significant upside from Tuesday's close around $182. "Expectations have risen ahead of Nvidia's earnings, and we think rightfully so," Morgan Stanley analysts said last week, as they raised their target to $206 from $200, citing strong AI demand signals. UBS also raised its target, to $205 from $175, while Wedbush boosted its to $210 from $175. Shares of Nvidia were little changed Wednesday morning ahead of the results, and have added over a third of their value in 2025 so far.

Nvidia Earnings Live: AI Chipmaker's Results Expected to Spur Big Stock Price Move

Stay tuned here for the details from the earnings report, the market reaction and analysis. Traders Expect Big Post-Earnings Stock Price Move Nvidia's stock is expected to move approximately 6.2% in either direction by the end of the week, according to options pricing data. That big of a move from Tuesday's close would put shares at either $192.88, an all-time high that translates to a $4.7 trillion market capitalization, or $170.66, its lowest price since mid-July. Nvidia has reported earnings 10 times since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked the AI craze that's made it the world's most valuable company. The stock posted double-digit gains in the days after four of those reports, most recently in May 2024. But Nvidia's earnings have struggled recently to clear the exceptionally high bar set by Wall Street. In the past four quarters, Nvidia stock has moved an average of 3.2% between reporting earnings and the end of the week. On only one of those occasions -- the most recent report in May -- did Nvidia finish the week above where it was before reporting earnings. Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia's report Wednesday for confirmation that AI demand remains strong. Hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) all recently stood by plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data center infrastructure and other capital goods, citing robust demand for AI and cloud computing. Nvidia, with an estimated 80% to 90% share of the AI chip market, should be the biggest beneficiary of that spending. Wall Street will also be hoping for updates on sales to China. Nvidia warned in May that the Trump administration's decision to tighten China export controls could cost it up to $8 billion in the second quarter. Earlier this month, Nvidia and competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) struck a deal with the Trump administration that allows them to resume sales of key AI chips to China in exchange for a 15% cut. That deal came too late to have any impact on Wednesday's results, but it should be factored into Nvidia's guidance. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia. Of the 14 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha with current ratings on Nvidia's stock, 13 rate it a "buy" and one gives it a neutral "hold" rating. Their targets range from $155 to $225, with the majority above $200. The stock was little changed near $182 in late trading Wednesday.

Nvidia's Earnings Pull Just Ahead of Estimates

Nvidia (NVDA) reported quarterly earnings just slightly ahead of Wall Street analysts' expectations, as its sales climbed to a record high. The AI chipmaker posted adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share on revenue that soared 56% year-over-year to a record $46.74 billion in the second quarter. Nvidia's quarterly sales and earnings were just above analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. (Investopedia's live coverage of the results is here.) The company's data center sales, which comprise the bulk of its revenue, climbed to a record $41.1 billion, though that figure slightly missed Street projections. Nvidia said its results were boosted by the release of $180 million tied to sales of inventory of its H20 chips, which were prohibited in China during the quarter by the Trump administration's export controls, to a customer outside China. CEO Jensen Huang had warned ahead of the results that it could take a hit to the tune $8 billion from H20 curbs. The chipmaker said that without its sales of previously reserved H20 chips outside of China, it would have reported EPS of $1.04. Nvidia projected third-quarter revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, which would be a another record high. However, that doesn't take into account potential H20 sales to China, which are allowed to resume, thanks to a recent 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the Trump administration. Wall Street analysts had called for revenue of $53.8 billion. The chipmaker said its board also approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks. Nvidia shares declined about 3% in after-hours trading. The stock added more than a third of its value in 2025 through Wednesday's close.

What Wall Street Analysts Think of Nvidia's Stock Ahead of Earnings Wednesday

The company warned it could face an $8 billion hit from China export curbs. Nvidia (NVDA) is set to release its latest quarterly results after the market closes Wednesday, with analysts expecting the most valuable company in the world's sales could reach another record high, despite an anticipated hit from export curbs. The AI chipmaker is projected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 for the second quarter on an over 50% year-over-year jump in revenue to $46.45 billion, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. CEO Jensen Huang could also provide more details during the company's earnings call about the timing of new products, including Nvidia's next-generation Rubin lineup and a more powerful AI chip tailored for China's market. In May, Nvidia warned it could face an $8 billion hit from China export restrictions, and although the company recently struck a 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the Trump administration to resume sales of its H20 chip in China, Wednesday's report will still reflect the full impact of the restrictions. Despite near-term trade policy headwinds, Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the chipmaker's prospects. Of the 13 analysts with current ratings surveyed by Visible Alpha, 12 call the stock a "buy," compared to one "hold" rating. Their targets range from $155 to $225, with the majority above $200, suggesting significant upside from Friday's close around $178. "Expectations have risen ahead of Nvidia's earnings, and we think rightfully so," Morgan Stanley analysts said earlier this week, as they raised their target to $206 from $200, citing strong AI demand signals. UBS also raised its target, to $205 from $175, while Wedbush boosted its to $210 from $175. Shares of Nvidia climbed close to 2% Friday afternoon amid a broader market rally and have added roughly a third of their value in 2025 so far.

After Months of Calm, Nvidia Earnings Could Spark a Big Stock Market Move

The tech rally stalled last week amid concerns about stretched valuations and uncertain returns on AI investments. All eyes are on Nvidia heading into the artificial intelligence chip giant's second-quarter earnings report, due after markets close on Wednesday. As the world's most valuable public company, Nvidia (NVDA) has more influence than any over the value of the S&P 500 and the more than $1 trillion indexed to it. With a market capitalization of about $4.4 trillion, Nvidia accounts for about 8% of the benchmark index, a whole percentage point more than its next largest component, Microsoft (MSFT). Nvidia's stock is expected to post its biggest post-earnings stock move in over a year, according to recent options pricing. That could translate into a market response that resembles that of a pivotal piece of economic data more than a single company's earnings report. Options data suggests traders expect the S&P 500 to move about 0.8% in either direction on Thursday, the first day of trading after Nvidia's report. The S&P 500 moved more than 0.8% on about a third of all trading days this year through Monday. But that figure is inflated by the tariff tumult that gripped markets in March and April, when the index jumped or fell by at least one percentage point on more than half of trading days. So far in the relatively calmer second half of the year, the index has moved more than 0.8% approximately one out of every five days. Nvidia's size isn't the only reason its earnings might move the whole market. It has also become an AI bellwether that can move the stocks of AI beneficiaries spanning a range of industries. The company's results, as a gauge of AI demand, exert significant influence over other semiconductor stocks. When Nvidia's results sent its shares plunging more than 8% in late February, the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped more than 6%, and not just because Nvidia accounts for about 9% of the index. The stocks of fellow chipmakers Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) tumbled more than 7% the same day, as did chip fabrication equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT). As the notion of what constitutes an "AI stock" has expanded, so has Nvidia's influence. Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST), nuclear power providers that have struck major data center deals with the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet (GOOGL), plunged more than 7% and 12%, respectively, following Nvidia's results in February. Server makers Dell (DELL) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw their shares fall nearly 7% and 16%, respectively, while software provider Palantir (PLTR) slid 5%. The ripple effects of Nvidia's earnings could be even more pronounced now because AI beneficiaries and the "Magnificent Seven," after big gains this year, make up more of the S&P 500 than they did in February. Palantir rose 75% in the past 6 months, while Nvidia competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained more than 50%. Broadcom, one of just nine U.S. companies worth more than $1 trillion, is up more than 35% in the same period. Before Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech sent stocks soaring last Friday, tech and AI stocks were having a rough week. Palantir last Wednesday notched its longest losing streak in more than a year. An ETF tracking the "Magnificent Seven" stocks slid 3.5% over the first four days of the week. Investor concerns about an AI bubble, which have repeatedly bubbled up over the past few years, resurfaced last week. Wall Street was unnerved by an MIT survey that found nearly all companies have seen no material benefits from their AI investments. And Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, reportedly said the prior week that investors had become "overexcited" about AI. Those headlines amplified worries that tech valuations had become stretched after a strong rebound off April's "Liberation Day" lows. The S&P 500 IT sector index has risen 50% since bottoming out on April 8, far outpacing the 29% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole.

Wall Street Week Ahead: Investors zero in on Nvidia results as US tech stocks waver

Nvidia's earnings are a key test for the AI market. Tech stocks recently declined. Nvidia's results will impact the tech sector and overall market. Investors are watching closely. Nvidia's growth has fueled AI excitement. Analysts cite AI industry developments as reasons for caution. Economic data and consumer sentiment will also be in focus. A wobble in U.S. technology shares has raised the stakes for Nvidia Corp's quarterly results on Wednesday, with earnings from the semiconductor giant posing a crucial test for the scorching AI trade. The heavyweight tech sector slumped 1.6% on the week after a huge run for the group, dragging on key indexes. The sector's weekly decline moderated on Friday as stocks broadly rallied after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared to pave the way for imminent interest rate cuts. Fueled by its dominant artificial intelligence (AI) products, Nvidia's massive share price gains have buoyed both the tech sector and the overall market in recent years. Last month, Nvidia became the first company to top $4 trillion in market value. Investors are now more "on edge" heading into Nvidia's results, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "When the group goes down and the most important stock in the group reports earnings, that is going to have a bigger impact than usual," Maley said. Nvidia's stock has climbed more than 30% so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400% since October 2022. The California-based company has epitomized the broader AI excitement that has driven up shares of a raft of tech companies and others involved in AI infrastructure such as power generation and cooling systems. "Nvidia is almost looked at as a proxy to what is happening in artificial intelligence," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "There's definitely a read-through that happens to the broader AI trade, which has really been the main driver of the S&P 500's return this year." Analysts said possible reasons for recent tech stock weakness include cautionary AI industry developments, including comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that investors may be getting overexcited about AI. Also, a study from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology cast doubt on returns from AI investments. Nvidia's results will close out a second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season that has largely surpassed expectations and helped support equities. S&P 500 company earnings are on track to have climbed 12.9% from the year-earlier period, up from an expected 5.8% rise on July 1, according to LSEG IBES. Goldman Sachs strategists pointed to particular earnings strength so far for the "Magnificent Seven" -- the group of megacap companies that includes Nvidia as well as Apple and Microsoft. Including estimates for Nvidia, the Magnificent 7 are on track to have increased earnings by 26% compared with 7% for the remaining 493 stocks in the index, the Goldman strategists said in a note. Nvidia is expected to post a 48% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $45.9 billion for its second fiscal quarter, according to LSEG data. Megacap tech companies focusing on AI have recently increased their estimates for capital spending, which should be favorable for Nvidia, said Paul Roach, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Nvidia's "commentary on the demand side... should be more bullish just because their largest customers have all kind of upped their capex guidance over the last few quarters," Roach said, adding that demand for Nvidia's products is also broadening beyond the largest tech companies Investors will also focus on U.S. economic data in the coming week, including on consumer sentiment and inflation. Despite the latest tech declines, the S&P 500 eked out a gain on the week and is up about 10% this year, around record-high levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record high close on Friday. As tech shares fell this week, some investors rotated into other areas of the market that have not been as strong in recent weeks, such as healthcare and consumer staples . But major equity indexes will be hard-pressed to keep moving higher if tech falters, given its heavy presence in those indexes, Maley said. Tech is by far the largest of the S&P 500's 11 sectors, with a 33% weight. Nvidia alone has a nearly 8% weight in the index. "If these tech stocks continue to fall, that means the indexes will continue to fall," Maley said. "No way around it."

Are Nvidia stocks the single biggest factor behind S&P 500, US stock market's swing? Investors will be surprised to details

Nvidia has grown, swelling to a $4 trillion valuation last month, so has its weighting in the S&P 500. It now makes up almost 8 per cent of the index. Nvidia and Federal Reserve's announcement related to interest rate cut are perhaps the most pivotal factors that could trip up the runaway stock market. Chip producer Nvidia's financial report, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, is expected to produce the S&P's biggest one-day reaction over the next month. Nvidia Impact on US Stock Market As Nvidia has grown, swelling to a $4 trillion valuation last month, so has its weighting in the S&P 500. It now makes up almost 8 per cent of the index. The last time Nvidia reported earnings, in May, its stock rose 3.25 per cent and the S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent. After reporting earnings in February, Nvidia sank more than 8 per cent and the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 per cent. Nvidia has led rivals in the race to dominate the high-powered chips used to power AI, and next week investors are looking for signs that the relentless demand for Nvidia's products will continue. The company's earnings could help answer another big question looming over the stock market: whether there is a bubble in AI, as some have speculated this week. Other large companies in the index, like Apple and Microsoft, are also tied to the AI theme, so Nvidia's financial results are likely to affect these other big stocks as well. "It's always a big deal," said Stacy Rasgon, an Nvidia analyst at Morningstar, joking that he had perhaps become "jaded" by the frequency of big moves in Nvidia's stock price. US Fed Impact on Wall Street On Friday, the Federal Reserve chair delivers a hotly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Not long after that, the Labor Department will release the latest update on hiring, and then there's an important reading on inflation. The forecast for that market move is reflected in recent options activity -- derivatives that give an investor the right to buy or sell a stock, or an index of stocks, at a future date for a preset price. Investors use options to make bets on the direction of the market and to protect against the potential for the market to move against them. According to S&P 500 options data from Citi Global Markets, investors are positioned for a 0.8-percentage-point move -- in either direction -- on Friday, depending on what the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, says in his speech at the central bank's annual conference at Jackson Hole. Prices for next Thursday -- the first chance investors have to react to Nvidia's earnings released the night before -- imply a move in the index of 0.9 percentage points in either direction. The Fed still looms large over financial markets, with policy decisions that can move markets around the world. But the fact that quarterly results from one technology company focused on artificial intelligence can match, in the view of equity investors, the impact of some of the most widely tracked economic data and central bank activity reflects the significant influence that a handful of behemoth tech companies have on today's stock market. "On a relative basis, Nvidia's earnings is the largest event for the S&P 500 for the next month," said Stuart Kaiser, an equity strategist at Citi. "For equity investors," he added, "particularly in the S&P 500, the AI theme, and the impact of that on returns, is on par with the Fed now." For comparison, when Powell spoke at Jackson Hole last year, the S&P 500 rose a little more than 1 per cent. The year before, his remarks were followed by a 0.7 per cent increase in the index. Powell's address this week could shift investors' expectations for monetary policy and cuts to interest rates, both of which are crucial inputs for modeling the path ahead for the economy and stock market. The Trump administration has repeatedly complained about the Federal Reserve's keeping rates elevated, calling on the central bank to lower them rapidly, which would probably make borrowing cheaper and accelerate the economy. It would also help President Donald Trump fulfill a campaign promise to bring interest rates down. So far, the Fed has resisted, warning that rapidly lowering interest rates risks heating up the economy at the wrong time, potentially stoking inflation and raising prices for consumers. Q1. Who is US Fed Chairman? A1. US Fed Chairman is Jerome Powell. Q2. What is valuation of Nvidia? A2. As Nvidia has grown, swelling to a $4 trillion valuation last month, so has its weighting in the S&P 500. It now makes up almost 8 per cent of the index. The last time Nvidia reported earnings, in May, its stock rose 3.25 per cent and the S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent. After reporting earnings in February, Nvidia sank more than 8 per cent and the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 per cent.

Big Nvidia quarterly results today - Here's what to expect from Jensen Huang-led AI titan

Nvidia Q2 earnings 2025: Nvidia is set to wrap up Big Tech's earnings season today as it reports its second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday. The company, led by CEO Jensen Huang, will report its earnings following a string of major policy shifts from the Trump administration that directly impact its business in China, as per a report. Recently, US president Donald Trump reversed his earlier ban on Nvidia's chip sales to China. The ban was lifted in July, but replaced with a new requirement that Nvidia must now pay the US government a 15% fee on all chip sales into China, as per a Yahoo Finance report. Nvidia had said during its Q1 earnings call that it expected to take an $8 billion hit to its Q2 bottom line due to the initial ban, according to the report. The situation remains complex, especially as Nvidia prepares a new chip for the Chinese market based on its Blackwell architecture, a move that will require Trump's approval, according to the Yahoo Finance report. ALSO READ: Is AI therapy safe? Hidden risks you must know before using chatbots for mental health Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor shipments into the US unless companies commit to domestic manufacturing, but Nvidia is expected to be exempt from the tariff, as per the report. The geopolitical backdrop adds extra weight to what is already a highly anticipated report. Nvidia shares were up 35% year to date and nearly 44% over the past 12 months as of Tuesday, and the company also became the first to see its market cap exceed $4 trillion in July, as per the Yahoo Finance report. ALSO READ: How the US army is using TikTok and Instagram influencers to recruit new Gen Z soldiers? Bloomberg consensus estimates of analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 on revenue of $46.2 billion for this quarter, as per the Yahoo Finance report. While the chipmaker had reported adjusted EPS of $0.68 and revenue of $30 billion in the same quarter last year, which is a 49% and 53% year-over-year EPS and revenue growth, respectively, as per the report. This time last year, Nvidia saw 151% EPS growth and 122% revenue growth in Q2, driven by the AI boom, according to the report. But that pace has since moderated, and analysts are watching closely to see where the company is headed now. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis anticipates that the AI chip firm's growth will bottom out at 50%, which could help "attract more momentum investors and translate to multiple expansion," as quoted by Yahoo Finance. Most of Nvidia's revenue continues to come from its data center business, which is expected to hit $41.2 billion in Q2, up from $26.2 billion the year prior and Gaming, the company's second-largest segment, is projected to reach $3.8 billion, as reported by Yahoo Finance. ALSO READ: Apple's iPhone 17 launch may spark stock sell-off! What every investor needs to know today Investors will also be paying close attention to Nvidia's continued shipment scaling of the GB200 super chip, the ramp-up of the upcoming Blackwell Ultra chip, and any updates on AI spending and China sales during the earnings call, according to the report. KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh said that, "Given improving GB200 rack manufacturing yields at server [original design manufacturers], which we believe are approaching 85%, we believe rack shipments are on track to exit [calendar fourth quarter] at 15K-17K racks and believe full-year [Grace Blackwell] rack shipments are tracking closer to 30K, vs. our prior [estimate] of 25K," as quoted by Yahoo Finance. ALSO READ: Your paychecks could shrink as student loan wage garnishment resumes soon - here's how borrowers can prepare However, he also warned that Nvidia's Q3 guidance could fall short of expectations if the company chooses not to include direct revenue from chip sales in China for the period, according to the report. Meanwhile, Baird senior research analyst Tristan Gerra offered a positive outlook for Nvidia's Q2 earnings, driven by strong GB200 sales, as per Yahoo Finance. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson raised the firm's price target for Nvidia from $175 to $210, citing continued strong demand and shipments, according to the report. Bryson said, "We continue to believe growth in announced hyperscale spend is largely going to build out AI capabilities and in particular ends up flowing to [Nvidia], which supplies a disproportionate amount of the AI server value," as quoted by Yahoo Finance. Options traders are preparing for a major swing in Nvidia's stock, with estimates suggesting the company's market value could move by as much as $260 billion following the results, according to the report. ALSO READ: Apple quietly fixes the most annoying AirPods problem with this hidden iPhone update The report also comes amid new challenges in China. The Chinese government recently warned local firms against using Nvidia's chips, citing "backdoor" security concerns, reported Yahoo Finance. Nvidia has dismissed the charge and is currently working with Chinese authorities to address the issue, as per the report. When will Nvidia report Q2 earnings? Nvidia will report its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, August 27. What are analysts expecting from Nvidia? Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.01 and revenue of $46.2 billion, showing strong year-over-year growth.

Nvidia in focus after Fed raises rate cut hopes

Traders anticipate Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The stock market faces a test with artificial intelligence. Nvidia Corp will report quarterly earnings. Nvidia's performance is crucial for the stock market. Its results could fuel or halt the market rally. Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth. Options traders anticipate a significant move in either direction. Investors are watching closely. Traders are breathing easier heading into this week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts are coming. The next test for the stock market will be a read on what's been driving gains for the past few years: artificial intelligence euphoria. Sentiment was weak heading into Friday, with the S&P 500 Index falling for five straight sessions, its longest losing streak since January, as Wall Street pros pulled back on bets that the Fed was about to reduce borrowing costs. Powell's comments halted those concerns, sending the S&P 500 soaring to its best day since May and less than two points from a record. Now comes Nvidia Corp, which is set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday after the market close. Traders are hoping it can shore up fears about AI spending and effectively confirm that the stock market's latest rally isn't just a technology bubble. "Nvidia is crucial for the stock market because any signs of further strength will be the fuel to light this market on fire," according to Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners. "The looming risk is all this AI investment may be peaking if it doesn't deliver and its outlook is cautious, which would rattle markets." He owns shares but said he has begun to add hedges after its huge run. Nvidia's size, it's the biggest weight in the S&P 500 at almost 8%, and its position at the center of AI development have made it a bellwether of the broader market. The tech giant's chips are everywhere, 40% of its revenue comes from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.com-all are among the Top 10 weightings in the S&P 500. All of which makes Nvidia's quarterly earnings report, as well as its forward outlook, a major market event. "The pressure's still really intense," said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. "So much of the market the last couple of years has been built on Nvidia and its friends. So I'm a little nervous." This is not to say that investors have no idea what Nvidia's results will show. Its megacap customers reported mostly solid results earlier in the earnings season, including pledges to increase the billions of dollars they've been pouring into capital expenditures. That's encouraging for the chipmaker's earnings and outlook. "Oftentimes Nvidia reports at a time when technology comes into question, and it certainly has over the course of two weeks," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "Nvidia has the potential to be a positive catalyst." Nvidia shares jumped 1.7% on Friday, snapping a three-day streak of declines, its longest losing streak in a month, and putting the stock less than 3% from the record high it hit earlier in August. Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to report $1.01 in adjusted earnings per share in its fiscal second quarter, a 48% jump from the previous year, on revenue of more than than $46 billion, up 54% from the same quarter a year ago. Of course, just as a strong report could boost Nvidia shares and lead the market higher, any miss-real or perceived-could stop the rally in its tracks and add significant weight to the downside. Options traders are pricing in a 6% move in either direction, according to data by Bloomberg.

Nvidia earnings on deck today: Brown Shipley offloads 3,351 NVDA shares worth $18.5M -- red flag or routine trim for the AI stock rally?

With Nvidia set to report earnings today, investors are watching closely as Brown Shipley trims its $18.5 million NVDA stake. Is this selling a signal of AI bubble fatigue, or can Nvidia's results crush doubts and keep the rally alive? As Nvidia prepares to release its earnings today, all eyes are not only on the numbers but also on signals from big institutional investors. One such signal came when Brown Shipley, a UK-based wealth manager, disclosed selling 3,351 shares of Nvidia -- worth about $18.5 million. For a stock that has become the face of the AI boom, even a modest sell-off sparks debate: is this a routine portfolio adjustment or an early warning of fatigue in the AI trade? Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results after U.S. markets close today, August 27, with investors bracing for one of the most closely watched earnings events of the year. The stakes could not be higher: Wall Street will use Nvidia's numbers to gauge whether the artificial intelligence rally still has legs, or if lofty expectations risk running ahead of reality. Adding intrigue, UK-based wealth manager Brown Shipley disclosed it sold 3,351 Nvidia shares this week, worth about $18.5 million -- a relatively small stake reduction, but one that landed just before earnings. With Nvidia's valuation stretched and sentiment fragile, even small institutional moves are drawing attention. Nvidia will release results for Q2 FY2026 after the closing bell today, with its earnings call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time. Export restrictions on H20 chips remain a drag, though a new U.S. government arrangement allows Nvidia to resume sales into China by sharing 15% of revenues from certain AI chips. For most investors, 3,351 shares may not sound like much. But when each Nvidia share trades north of $5,500, the total value is striking. The timing adds weight -- coming just as Nvidia gears up for its quarterly report, a moment that often sets the tone for broader tech markets. Portfolio managers like Brown Shipley typically trim positions either to lock in profits or reduce exposure to volatility ahead of major catalysts. Nvidia's earnings are exactly that kind of event: high-reward, but equally high-risk if the company falls short of Wall Street's towering expectations. Last quarter, Nvidia delivered another blockbuster revenue print, but profits were dented by a $4.5B charge tied to new export licensing rules for China. Gross margins sank well below expectations to 60.5%. Still, management painted a picture of unrelenting AI demand -- from hyperscalers, cloud providers, and governments building "AI factories." Nvidia also highlighted deeper partnerships across networking, healthcare, and robotics to broaden its moat. Nvidia's bullish long-term narrative rests on its aggressive product cadence. Production of Blackwell Ultra GPUs begins later this year, already sold out months in advance. Its next-generation Rubin architecture is slated for 2026, with Rubin Ultra superchips to follow in 2027. The company's "AI Factory" concept -- full-stack systems where raw data enters and processed intelligence emerges -- is central to its strategy. That framing resonates with governments and corporates looking to secure AI infrastructure at scale. China remains a wildcard. Officially, 13% of Nvidia's FY2025 revenue came from the country, but actual exposure may be higher due to re-routed orders. The revenue-sharing deal with Washington could boost sales by over 10% if China demand rebounds, though the 15% levy trims some of that upside. Longer term, geopolitical uncertainty and competition from alternative AI chips -- including more efficient models from Chinese firms -- pose risks to Nvidia's dominant position. According to LSEG data, 58 of 65 analysts still rate Nvidia a "buy" or "strong buy." Just one calls it a "sell." But enthusiasm has cooled slightly since Q1, with valuation the key sticking point: Nvidia trades at 33x forward earnings, a lofty multiple for a hardware company. Price targets have nonetheless moved higher -- from $163 after Q1 to $191 now -- implying ~9% upside. The real test is whether tonight's results justify those targets or force a rethink. Nvidia shares have doubled since spring, but momentum has wavered in August. The stock slipped below its 20-day moving average last week and faces resistance near $184. A strong report could break that ceiling toward $196. A miss, however, risks sending shares back toward $165 support. Nvidia's Q2 earnings aren't just about one company. They're a proxy for the entire artificial intelligence trade. If growth remains explosive, the AI bubble narrative will look premature. But if Nvidia shows cracks -- in demand, margins, or guidance -- the correction many fear could accelerate.

Nvidia earnings, share price show AI-giant is on track to achieve historic $5 trillion market valuation feat

Nvidia earnings results report shows that the company has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. Nvidia earnings results were out on Wednesday and data showed that the US Chipmaker is well on track to reach $5 trillion market valuation. Nvidia Corporation became the first company reach a stagger market valuation of $4 trillion. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's year-to-date rise of nearly 10 per cent. On Wednesday, Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, helped by robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips from cloud providers expanding infrastructure to power generative AI technology. The AI market bellwether expects revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2 per cent, in the third quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. But the company has been caught in the crossfire of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as the world's two largest economies claw for dominance of generative AI technology. The company said it had not assumed any H20 chip shipments to China in the outlook and that there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter. Still, demand has surged for Nvidia's advanced chips that can speedily process the large amounts of data used by generative AI applications as businesses race each other to dominate the new technology. Big Tech companies including Meta Platforms and Microsoft have been spending liberally to support their AI ambitions, and Nvidia is the biggest beneficiary, with a significant chunk of this spending funneled toward its chips. The company said that about half of its $41 billion in data center revenue came from large cloud service providers during its fiscal second quarter. Enthusiasm for AI stocks, centered around Nvidia as Wall Street engaged in picks-and-shovels trading, has been the dominating force behind the rally of the S&P 500 Index over the last two years. In an unprecedented deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, Nvidia has agreed to pay the government 15 per cent of some of its revenue in China in exchange for a reversal of restrictions that curbed sales of its H20 chips to China. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies about imports and sources said that Nvidia has halted production of H20 chips. Nvidia had in May expected the curbs to shave off $8 billion in sales from the July quarter. The company reported revenue of $46.74 billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of $46.06 billion. Q1. How have Nvidia shares performed? A1. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's year-to-date rise of nearly 10 per cent. Q2. What is Nvidia's current position on sale of H20 chips to China? A2. Nvidia said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook.

US stock market prediction: Nvidia, US economic data to dictate Wall Street this week. What to expect?

Nvidia's stock has climbed more than 30 per cent so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400 per cent since October 2022. US stock market will have a busy week ahead as traders await Nvidia Corp's quarterly results on Wednesday, with earnings from the semiconductor giant posing a crucial test for the scorching AI trade. Investors will also focus on U.S. economic data in the coming week, including on consumer sentiment and inflation. Despite the latest tech declines, the S&P 500 eked out a gain on the week and is up about 10 per cent this year, around record-high levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record high close on Friday. The heavyweight tech sector slumped 1.6 per cent on the week after a huge run for the group, dragging on key indexes. The sector's weekly decline moderated on Friday as stocks broadly rallied after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared to pave the way for imminent interest rate cuts. Fueled by its dominant artificial intelligence (AI) products, Nvidia's massive share price gains have buoyed both the tech sector and the overall market in recent years. Last month, Nvidia became the first company to top $4 trillion in market value. Investors are now more "on edge" heading into Nvidia's results, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Nvidia's stock has climbed more than 30 per cent so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400 per cent since October 2022. The California-based company has epitomized the broader AI excitement that has driven up shares of a raft of tech companies and others involved in AI infrastructure such as power generation and cooling systems. Analysts said possible reasons for recent tech stock weakness include cautionary AI industry developments, including comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that investors may be getting overexcited about AI. Also, a study from researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology cast doubt on returns from AI investments. Goldman Sachs strategists pointed to particular earnings strength so far for the "Magnificent Seven" -- the group of megacap companies that includes Nvidia as well as Apple and Microsoft. Including estimates for Nvidia, the Magnificent 7 are on track to have increased earnings by 26 per cent compared with 7 per cent for the remaining 493 stocks in the index, the Goldman strategists said in a note. Megacap tech companies focusing on AI have recently increased their estimates for capital spending, which should be favorable for Nvidia, said Paul Roach, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Q1. What are top three indexes of US stock market? A1. Top three indexes of US stock market are S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq. Q2. When is Nvidia results? A2. Nvidia results will be announced on August 27, 2025 at 4 PM (EDT).

Wall Street Analysts Expect This Popular AI Stock Could Face Challenges Ahead | The Motley Fool

For the most part, analysts are optimistic about the report, due out after the close of trading on Aug. 27. Consensus forecasts have the semiconductor company growing earnings 48.5% year over year, to $1.01 per share, as insatiable demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips drives a near-53% rise in revenue to almost $46 billion. That's a lot of money Nvidia will be raking in for a single quarter. This is one of the primary reasons why a staggering 58 analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence give Nvidia stock either a "buy" or an "outperform," or an equivalent rating -- versus only one single analyst who says "sell." And yet, not everything's unicorns and rainbows for Nvidia stock. As the final countdown to earnings day begins, two separate Wall Street analysts chimed in Wednesday morning to raise reservations about Nvidia stock and the challenges that lie ahead for it. First up was Deutsche Bank, where analyst Ross Seymore set a price target of $155 that implies the stock could fall 12% over the next 12 months. Ordinarily, the prospect of a 12% near-term loss in a stock would inspire an analyst to recommend selling that stock. But perhaps fearing to deviate too far from the herd on this popular AI stock, Seymore only reiterated a "hold" rating on Nvidia. (Seymore is still one of only a half-dozen analysts with neutral ratings on Nvidia). No matter. Whether any one analyst thinks Nvidia is a "buy" or just a "hold" probably shouldn't concern us as much as why he rates the stock as he does. And in Seymore's case, the answer couldn't be clearer: Writing on StreetInsider.com on Wednesday, Seymore warns that U.S. trade restrictions on semiconductor exports to China will cost Nvidia about $8 billion in "foregone" revenue in Q2. True, a resumption of shipments upon receiving export licenses from the Trump administration should help rectify this situation by Q3. But there's a cost to that solution -- specifically, the Trump Administration's requirement that, to obtain export licenses, Nvidia must fork over 15% of any revenue it generates in China to the IRS. With China accounting for roughly $17 billion of Nvidia's revenue over the last 12 months, that could amount to a $2.6 billion drag on Nvidia's profits over the next 12 months. Investment bank KeyBanc shares Deutsche Bank's concerns about Nvidia and China. On the one hand, KeyBanc anticipates Nvidia could book $2 billion to $3 billion in revenue from selling H20 and B40 chips in China next quarter. On the other hand, the banker believes this revenue is unreliable and dependent upon the receipt of export licenses from Washington. For this reason, KeyBanc warns Nvidia may "exclude direct revenue from China" when giving revenue guidance next week, potentially creating a kind of guidance miss that could send Nvidia shares lower. KeyBanc also cites the "potential 15% tax on AI exports" from the U.S. side as a risk, and adds that "pressure from the [Chinese] government for its AI providers to use domestic AI chips" could dampen Nvidia's China revenues even further -- adding a third risk that Deutsche didn't mention! Now, I hope I haven't painted too bleak a picture for you here. Fact is, despite his reservations, Deutsche analyst Seymore still expects Nvidia to report a "typical" earnings beat next week, exceeding the company's $45 billion revenue forecast by about $2 billion. Blackwell revenue is ramping, says Seymore, more than doubling sequentially between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, to $24 billion. With the prospect of an imminent earnings beat, it makes sense that Seymore would hesitate to recommend selling Nvidia stock -- even if he does feel it's a bit overpriced. Furthermore, KeyBanc agrees that Blackwell production is ramping, and a new Blackwell Ultra (B300) chip is on the way, potentially boosting revenue even more in Q3. For these and other reasons, KeyBanc not only still rates Nvidia stock "overweight" (i.e., buy). KeyBanc actually raised its price target on the stock to $215 on Wednesday. That's the real question, isn't it? Wall Street's confident Nvidia will "beat" on Q2 next week. It's just worried that Nvidia will "miss" on guidance for Q3. Longer-term, though, is Nvidia stock a buy or isn't it? Here's how I look at it, and I'll keep this really simple: Valued at 4.28 trillion dollars, earning nearly $77 billion in annual profit, and backing that up with roughly $72 billion in annual free cash flow, Nvidia stock costs about 55 times trailing earnings and about 59 times free cash flow. For Nvidia stock to be a clear-cut buy, I'd want to see the stock growing earnings at least 50% annually over the next five years. The best that Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to do, however, is 30% annual growth -- even with nine out of 10 analysts polled saying Nvidia stock is a buy.

Prediction: Nvidia Won't Be Able to Live Up to Wall Street's Sky-High Expectations on Aug. 27 | The Motley Fool

Nvidia is priced for perfection in a market and trend that are anything but perfect. Arguably the most important data release of the entire third quarter is just days away. Following the closing bell on Wednesday, Aug. 27, Wall Street's largest publicly traded company, and the innovative leader fueling the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), Nvidia (NVDA 1.65%), will report its fiscal second-quarter operating results (its fiscal year ends in late January). No technological advancement has been hotter on Wall Street than AI. Empowering software and systems with AI so they can make split-second decisions and grow more efficient over time without human intervention is a game changer that can accelerate growth in most industries around the globe. In Sizing the Prize, analysts at PwC pegged the economic impact of AI at $15.7 trillion come 2030. While an approximately 1,100% increase in Nvidia's stock since the start of 2023 signals that the company is firing on all cylinders, a case can be made that the face of the AI revolution is priced for perfection in a market and trend that are anything but perfect. Despite its near-parabolic ascent, Nvidia will likely struggle to live up to Wall Street's sky-high expectations on Aug. 27. In terms of AI-graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia has been the kingpin. Its Hopper (H100) and Blackwell GPUs have been deployed more than any other chips in high-compute data centers, with the respective compute capabilities of Nvidia's hardware standing tall when compared to the competition. But what's been even more important than Nvidia's competitive advantages is persistent AI-GPU scarcity. The law of supply and demand states that when demand for a good or service outpaces its supply, the price of said good or service will climb until demand tapers. With an impressive backlog for its AI-GPUs, Nvidia has been able to command a premium price for its hardware, which in turn sent its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin to a high of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. As long as this AI-advanced chip scarcity persists, Nvidia's gross margin is golden. The problem for Nvidia is that it's no longer the only rodeo in town. Advanced Micro Devices and China-based Huawei are external competitors that are actively ramping up production of their data-center chips. However, the biggest threat to Nvidia's GAAP gross margin potentially comes from within. Nvidia's top customers, in terms of net sales, have consistently been members of the "Magnificent Seven." Most of these leading clients are internally developing AI GPUs and solutions to use in their respective data centers. Even though these chips are no threat to Nvidia's compute advantages, they are considerably cheaper and not backlogged like Blackwell. In my view, it's inevitable that internal chip development will cost Nvidia precious data center real estate. More importantly, this internal development is working against the AI-GPU scarcity that Nvidia has held so dear. As the insatiable demand for AI-accelerating chips calms, Nvidia should see its pricing power and GAAP gross margin fade over time. We've already been witnessing steady gross margin erosion for more than a year. In addition to gross margin being front and center, Nvidia is going to have a near-impossible task of justifying its valuation premium amid a historically pricey market. To be abundantly clear, I believe Nvidia is deserving of a valuation premium thanks to its competitive advantages. The issue, while subjective, is how far this premium can be stretched before it becomes excessive. Historical precedent tells us that industry leaders of next-big-thing trends have a relatively short leash when it comes to extended valuations. Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter-century ago, prominent internet leaders like Cisco Systems, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 31 to 43, respectively. Except for Palantir Technologies, whose P/S ratio recently entered a separate orbit, no megacap company on the leading edge of a game-changing technology has been able to maintain a P/S ratio in the 30 to 40 range for a substantial length of time. Less than a week ago, Nvidia's trailing-12-month P/S ratio was hovering north of 30. While its P/S ratio will decline a bit when it reports projected year-over-year sales growth of 53% in the fiscal second quarter, it'll still be tipping the scales at a multiple that's far above anything that's been historically sustainable. On top of being individually pricey, Nvidia is one of a handful of high-growth tech stocks that have lifted the S&P 500's (^GSPC 1.52%) Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to its third-highest multiple during a continuous bull market when back-tested 154 years. Previously documented occasions when the stock market was this expensive were eventually followed by declines of 20% or more in the benchmark S&P 500. Pardon the pun following the gross margin discussion above, but there's simply no margin for error. The final piece of the puzzle that helps explain why Nvidia is positioned to disappoint come Aug. 27 (and beyond) has to do with history. For the better part of the last three decades, investors have been privy to no shortage of next-big-thing trends and game-changing innovations. While many of these trends went on to positively impact corporate America, including the advent of the internet, all endured early-stage bubble-bursting events. The problem with hyped innovations is that investors consistently overshoot when it comes to widespread adoption timelines and early-stage utility. For example, businesses didn't fully understand how to make the internet revolution work in their favor until many years after it went mainstream. It takes time for game-changing innovations to mature, which makes it unlikely that artificial intelligence has done so in a little over two years. While demand for AI-data center infrastructure and AI software has been impressive, most businesses aren't yet optimizing their AI solutions, nor are many generating a positive return on their AI investments. These are telltale signs that investors have, yet again, overestimated how impactful artificial intelligence will be, at least in the early going. No megacap company's growth has been more reliant on investor euphoria surrounding the evolution of AI than Nvidia, which has added close to $4 trillion in market cap in less than three years. Even the slightest hiccup can disrupt this hype. To reiterate, Nvidia is a solid and time-tested company that isn't going anywhere. But it's far from perfect -- and perfection is all Wall Street will settle for at this point.

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before Aug. 27? History Provides a Clear and Compelling Answer. | The Motley Fool

The AI chipmaker is scheduled to report results later this week. Can the stock continue its historic climb? The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) over the past few years has created quite a conundrum for investors. Some fear the easy money has already been made, while others believe the adoption of AI will continue for years to come. Lest there be any doubt, I'm firmly in the second camp. Developers continue to come to terms with the potential applications of this groundbreaking technology, and the research is ongoing. If one company represents the tug-of-war between the near limitless potential and the wall of worry surrounding AI, it would be Nvidia (NVDA 1.65%). The company pioneered the graphics processing units (GPUs) that have become the gold standard for powering generative AI applications. As such, much is riding on Nvidia's quarterly results, particularly as the stock is within striking distance of a new all-time high. Some investors are wondering whether they should lay out their hard-earned money to buy the stock before its highly anticipated financial report on Aug. 27 or wait until the results are in. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, a look back at Nvidia's history provides a compelling answer. It has been a busy few months since Nvidia reported its most recent quarterly results. After much lobbying by CEO Jensen Huang, the Trump administration has lifted the moratorium on Nvidia's H20 chip, with the company agreeing to pay 15% from its chip sales to China. After concerns were raised, Nvidia has provided assurances to the Chinese government that its chips contain no backdoors, no kill switches, and no spyware. Huang also confirmed recent reports that Nvidia is developing a new AI data center processor based on its Blackwell architecture for its Chinese customers. And despite decelerating growth, Nvidia set a high bar with its most recent financial results. During its fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended April 27), Nvidia delivered record revenue of $44.1 billion, which soared 69% year over year and 12% sequentially. Excluding a one-time charge related to the moratorium on its H20 chips, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) jumped 62% to $0.96. The company's data center segment, which includes chips used for AI, cloud computing, and data centers, was the star of the show. Revenue for the segment surged 73% to $39 billion, as AI chips continued to fly off the shelves. Nvidia is scheduled to report its second-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, and investors will be keeping their eyes peeled for signs that demand for AI is waning. Three months ago, management's forecast suggested these strong secular tailwinds would continue. For the second quarter, Nvidia guided for revenue of $45 billion, representing growth of about 50%. The chart below illustrates Nvidia's stock price movements over the past three years. The purple circles denoted by the letter E mark when the company released its financial reports. In all but three of these instances, or 75% of the time, the stock climbed in the wake of Nvidia's earnings report, fueled by investors piling into the stock. What sparked most of these moves higher was the combination of better-than-expected results and management raising its forecast. Management's strong track record suggests that Nvidia is well positioned to continue its history of "beat and raise." It's important to give this some context. Investor sentiment isn't reliable, but it tends to drive stock price moves higher and lower. There's no way to know for sure how investors will take the results on a given day, so I don't generally recommend date-driven stock buying. That said, history shows that Nvidia tends to move higher in the days and weeks following its financial report. Wall Street rarely agrees on anything, so it's worth mentioning that a majority of analysts who cover Nvidia believe the stock has further to climb. Of the 65 analysts who offered an opinion (thus far) in August, a whopping 89% have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, and only one recommends selling. Loop Capital analyst John Donovan recently became Nvidia's biggest cheerleader, maintaining a buy rating with a Street-high price target of $250. This represents potential upside of 43% compared to the stock's closing price on Thursday. The analyst cites channel checks with cloud providers and other large-scale chip buyers in suggesting that Wall Street continues to underestimate the demand for AI-centric processors. One final item of note. Nvidia stock is currently selling for 30 times next year's earnings. While that's certainly a premium, the company's track record and the secular tailwinds of AI suggest the stock still has room to run -- though it will inevitably experience some turbulence along the way.

Wall Street Isn't Expecting a Big Pop for Nvidia Stock on Aug. 27. Here's Why Analysts Could Be Wrong. | The Motley Fool

The fingernail-biting phase with Nvidia (NVDA 1.65%) should now be over. Sure, the chip stock plunged 37% at one point this year. However, it has since rebounded strongly. Nvidia's stock is now up more than 30% year to date. Could Nvidia's momentum accelerate with a potential catalyst only a few days away? The company reports its fiscal 2026 second-quarter results on Aug. 27. Wall Street doesn't appear to be expecting a big pop for Nvidia. But analysts could be wrong. To be sure, Wall Street is looking for great numbers from Nvidia's fiscal Q2 update. The consensus estimate is for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01. If Nvidia hits that mark, it will represent year-over-year growth of 48.5%. The average estimate among analysts for the company's fiscal Q2 revenue is $46 billion. In the same period last year, Nvidia generated revenue of a little over $30 billion. If the company meets Wall Street's projection, its revenue will soar roughly 53.1% year over year. Those estimates clearly don't reflect low expectations for Nvidia. However, analysts nonetheless don't seem to think the Q2 update will serve as a significant catalyst for the stock. How can we know that? Just look at Wall Street's price targets for Nvidia. The average price target for the stock is only around 8% higher than the current share price. Keep in mind, though, that this is a 12-month target. If analysts think that Nvidia's share price will be only 8% or so higher a year from now, they're almost certainly not anticipating a big move this week. Nvidia's stock could still soar after the company reports its fiscal Q2 results, though. One possibility is that Nvidia delivers much higher earnings than expected. This isn't an unlikely event: The GPU maker has easily topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters. Granted, Nvidia's past earnings beats haven't always caused its share price to surge by a jaw-dropping level. For example, the company's adjusted earnings per share were $0.06 higher than the Wall Street consensus in fiscal Q1. Nvidia's stock rose around 3% the next day -- not bad, but not anything to get excited about. However, surprisingly strong fiscal Q2 results just might be enough to fire up investors. If Nvidia does deliver much better news than expected, it will probably be because of its new Blackwell GPUs. CFO Colette Kress said in the fiscal Q1 earnings call that the Blackwell ramp-up has been "the fastest in our company's history." I suspect that a more plausible reason Nvidia's stock could take off following its Q2 update is if management gives especially bullish commentary in the earnings call. There have been solid hints from several of Nvidia's major customers in their own recent quarterly updates to support this scenario. Amazon, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, and Meta Platforms discussed increased investments in AI infrastructure, which will probably translate to more demand for Nvidia's chips. Investors could also applaud any positive updates from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on progress toward selling more advanced AI chips to China. Huang recently stated that the company is talking with the U.S. government about this possibility. Will Nvidia's share price pop after the company's fiscal Q2 update? We won't know for sure until later this week. However, I think Wall Street is probably right about one thing: The stock remains a good pick. Of the 65 analysts surveyed by LSEG in August who cover Nvidia, 58 rated the stock as a "buy" or a "strong buy." Many of these analysts might not look for Nvidia's share price to rise appreciably over the next few days, but they seem to be optimistic about the longer term.

Why Aug. 27 Could Be a Catalyst-Driven Day for Nvidia's Stock | The Motley Fool

Nvidia is the ultimate artificial intelligence stock and the largest company by market cap. The biggest company by market cap in the world is set to report its second quarter earnings for its fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Aug. 27. Then CEO Jensen Huang and the rest of Nvidia's (NVDA 1.10%) management team will hold a conference call with investors to discuss the results, take questions from Wall Street analysts, and provide some commentary on the red-hot artificial intelligence sector. It could prove to be a big moment for the stock. Nvidia, the ultimate pick-and-shovels play for artificial intelligence, has now been the ultimate darling on Wall Street for the past several years. The business flourished, the margins are incredible, and Huang is arguably the most closely followed CEO on Wall Street. Here's why Aug. 27 could be a catalyst-driven day for the stock. Whenever investors go into an earnings call, the most basic -- and also one of the most important -- things they look at are the numbers. How much earnings per share and revenue did the company generate in the quarter and how does that stack up compared to consensus estimates? Consensus numbers compile an average of all the estimates from Wall Street analysts covering a stock. In the second quarter, Nvidia is expected to post $0.95 of diluted earnings per share (EPS) or adjusted EPS of $1.01, according to data from Visible Alpha, which compiled estimates from 24 analysts. Meanwhile, revenue is projected to come in at $46.38 billion. These estimates are calling for a significant increase in EPS and revenue from the same quarter a year ago, in which the company posted $0.67 diluted EPS on revenue of just over $30 billion. However, gross margins will likely be lower than the 75.1% the company posted last year. On a full-year basis, Wall Street is expecting the company to post $4.17 diluted EPS, or $4.42 operating EPS, with total revenue of over $204 billion, up roughly 56% year over year. Most analysts are optimistic going into the call. Wedbush analysts Matt Bryson and Antoine Legault recently reiterated an outperform on the stock and hiked their price target from $175 to $210. "We continue to believe growth in announced hyperscale spend is largely going to build out AI capabilities and in particular ends up flowing to NVDA which supplies a disproportionate amount of the AI server value," the two wrote in a research note. "As such, we view CQ2 CSP (cloud service providers) capex results as supportive of this thesis, with hyperscale spend up 67% Y/Y (+23% Q/Q), marking an acceleration from CQ1." One of the big stories for Nvidia right now has to do with its business in China. Not only have tariffs made things more difficult, but President Donald Trump's administration temporarily restricted Nvidia from selling chips to China, a market that previously made up a significant amount of revenue for the company, requiring Nvidia to first obtain export licenses. As a result, Nvidia took a $5.5 billion charge earlier this year "associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments and related reserves." Earlier this month, media outlets reported that Nvidia and other players in the microchip sector had come to an agreement with the Trump administration that would allow them to sell chips in China, but would also require them to give 15% of their Chinese chip sales to the U.S. government. Reuters also recently reported that Nvidia is working on a scaled-back Blackwell chip that Trump may allow the company to sell in China. This chip would be more powerful than the less-advanced H20 chips Nvidia has been selling to China under previous government restrictions. Interestingly, media outlets also recently reported that Nvidia has instructed some of its suppliers to stop production on its H20 chips as China raised questions about the chips' security. That only adds to the confusion, so some clarity on what's going on with its business in China could be helpful. "If NVDA were to include China in its guidance, we believe it would contribute an incremental $2-3 billion in revenue," KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh said in a recent research note. It's important for investors to understand that catalysts can go both ways. If Nvidia misses estimates or provides guidance that is lower than analysts were expecting, the stock could struggle. Additionally, if Nvidia's management team doesn't discuss China or mentions it very little, the stock could also struggle. That's why investors should focus on a longer-term horizon -- investing based on quarterly results is extremely difficult. Trading at about 40 times forward earnings, Nvidia's stock isn't cheap. However, viewed as the ultimate play for AI, a technology expected to change everything, valuation may be less important to the market right now. Long-term believers in AI can certainly continue to hold the stock long term. However, understanding what could potentially move a stock will help investors make better, more rational decisions on their investing journey.

Meet the Magnificent "Ten Titans" Growth Stock With a 7.5% Weighting in the S&P 500 That Could Single-Handedly Move the Stock Market on Aug. 28 | The Motley Fool

In just a few years, Nvidia has become the most valuable company in the world, and also one of the most profitable. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hovering around all-time highs. A big part of the rally is investor excitement for sustained artificial intelligence (AI)-driven growth and adjustments to Federal Reserve policy that open the door to interest rate cuts. While investor sentiment and macroeconomic factors undoubtedly influence short-term price action, the stock market's long-term performance ultimately boils down to earnings. Nvidia is the largest -- with a 7.5% weighting in the index. The other Titans are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Broadcom, Tesla, Oracle, and Netflix. Aside from its value, Nvidia is also a major contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth. Megacap tech companies influence the value of the S&P 500 and its earnings. And since many of the top earners are growing quickly, the market arguably deserves to have a premium valuation. Since the start of 2023, Nvidia added roughly $4 trillion in market cap to the S&P 500. But it also added over $70 billion in net income -- as its trailing-12-month earnings went from just $5.96 billion at the end of 2022 to $76.8 billion today. That's like creating the combined earnings contribution of Bank of America, Walmart, Coca-Cola, and Costco Wholesale in the span of less than three years. Nvidia's value creation for its shareholders, and the scale of just how big the business is from an earnings standpoint, is unlike anything the market has ever seen. But investors care more about where a company is going than where it has been. Expectations are high for Nvidia to continue blowing expectations out of the water. Over the last three years, Nvidia's stock price rose after its quarterly earnings report 75% of the time. Analysts have spent the last few years flat-footed and scrambling to raise their price targets as Nvidia keeps raising the bar. It looks like they aren't making that mistake any longer -- as near-term forecasts are incredibly ambitious. As mentioned, Nvidia's trailing-12-month net income is $76.8 billion, which translates to $3.10 in diluted earnings per share (EPS). Consensus analyst estimates have Nvidia bringing in $1 per share in earnings for the quarter it reports on Wednesday and $4.35 for fiscal 2026. Going out further, analyst consensus estimates call for 37.8% in earnings growth in fiscal 2027, which would bring Nvidia's diluted EPS to $6 per share. Based on Nvidia's current outstanding share count, that would translate to net income of $107.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and $148.5 billion in fiscal 2027. Unless other leaders like Alphabet, Microsoft, or Apple accelerate their earnings growth rates, Nvidia could become the most profitable U.S. company by the time it closes out fiscal 2027 in January of calendar year 2027. These projections strike at the core of why some investors are willing to pay so much for shares in the business today. Nvidia can single-handedly move the stock market due to its high weighting in the S&P 500. However, its influence goes beyond its own stock, as strong earnings from Nvidia could also be a boon for other semiconductor stocks, like Broadcom. But the ripple effect is even more impactful. In Nvidia's first quarter of fiscal 2026, four customers made up 54% of total revenue. Although not directly named by Nvidia, those four customers are almost certainly Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms. So strong earnings from Nvidia would basically mean that these hyperscalers continue to spend big on AI -- a positive sign for the overall AI investment thesis. However, Nvidia's long-term growth and the stickiness of its earnings ultimately depend on its customers translating AI capital expenditures (capex) into earnings -- which hasn't really happened yet. Cloud computing hyperscalers are spending a lot on capital expenditures (capex) as a percentage of revenue -- showcasing accelerated investment in AI. But eventually, the ratio should decrease if investments translate to higher revenue. Investors may want to keep an eye on the capex-to-revenue metric because it provides a reading on where we are in the AI spending cycle. Today, it's all about expansion. But soon, the page will turn, and investors will pressure companies to prove that the outsize spending was worth it. Almost all of Nvidia's revenue comes from selling graphics processing units, software, and associated infrastructure to data centers. And most of that revenue comes from just a handful of customers. It doesn't take a lot to connect the dots and figure out just how dependent Nvidia is on sustained AI investment. If the investments pay off, the Ten Titans could continue making up a larger share of the S&P 500, both in terms of market cap and earnings. But if there's a cooldown in spending, a downturn in the business cycle, or increased competition, Nvidia could also sell off considerably. So it's best only to approach Nvidia with a long-term investment time horizon, so you aren't banking on everything going right over the next year and a half. All told, investors should be aware of potentially market-moving events but not overhaul their portfolio or make emotional decisions based on quarterly earnings.

Nvidia Earnings Day Has Arrived, and This Metric Will Determine If It's Incredible or Terrible News (Hint: It's Not Sales or EPS)

This is the premier operating metric for investors to home in on after the closing bell. Over the past three years, nothing has garnered more attention on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with AI to make split-second decisions without the need for human oversight is a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity. While a long list of companies has benefited from the evolution of AI, Nvidia (NVDA 1.10%) currently finds itself atop the pedestal. It's added $4 trillion in market value since the end of 2022, with its graphics processing units (GPUs) acting as the "brains" powering decision-making in AI-accelerated data centers. Perhaps nothing is more important to Wall Street and investors than being able to dive into Nvidia's quarterly operating results, which are due after the closing bell today, Aug. 27. Although Wall Street's largest publicly traded company has made it a habit of handily outpacing consensus revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates from analysts, there's a less-talked-about metric that'll ultimately determine if Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter operating results are incredible or terrible news. The stage is set for Nvidia to shine When Nvidia lifts the proverbial hood just hours from now, Wall Street will be looking for the company to have generated $46 billion in second-quarter sales for fiscal 2026 (its fiscal year ends in late January), and deliver $1.01 per share in EPS. Nvidia has surpassed consensus EPS projections by $0.04 to $0.06 in each of the previous four quarters. Beyond these headline numbers, there are other figures and timelines investors will be focusing on. For example, the Donald Trump administration somewhat recently gave Nvidia the green light to export its H20 chip to China, the world's No. 2 economy by gross domestic product. During the final two years and change of the Joe Biden administration, and Trump's first six months in office for his second term, the export of high-powered AI-GPUs and related equipment to China was restricted. With these exports now back on the table, investors will be keen to see how this impacts the company's full-year sales guidance. Additionally, CEO Jensen Huang's innovation timeline is bound to come into focus. Huang has stated his intent to bring a new AI-advanced chip to market on an annual basis. Investors should expect updates on the ramp up of Blackwell Ultra shipments in the latter-half of 2025, as well as development projections for Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra, which are believed to be coming to market by 2026 and 2027, respectively. Both will be operating on the all-new Vera processor. Huang's conference call commentary is also known for highlighting newly developed partnerships and collaborations, as well as those currently in the works. For instance, Huang has built a close-knit relationship with the world's largest chip fabrication company Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (commonly known as "TSMC"), whose packaging technology of high-bandwidth memory is a necessity for AI-accelerated data centers. Nvidia would love to increase production of new/existing AI chips to China, and working closely with TSMC can make that happen. While the stage would appear to be set for Nvidia to thrive, there's another metric that stands head-and-shoulders above Blackwell Ultra updates, recent partnerships, and even fiscal 2026 full-year sales guidance. It's time to shine a light on gross margin The one metric that has the potential to make or break Nvidia is its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin guidance. Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has soared thanks to the AI revolution. After hovering in the low-to-mid 60% range, its gross margin catapulted to a peak of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. This spike is a direct reflection of demand for its Hopper chip handily outstripping supply, which allowed Nvidia to charge a hearty premium of 100% to 300% per chip, relative to its peers. This premium pricing power is probably one of the main reasons Jensen Huang wants to bring a new AI-GPU to market on an annual basis. Being able to maintain his company's compute edge should, on paper, afford Nvidia a reason to charge a premium for its hardware. But a solid argument can be made that AI-GPU scarcity has been the primary driver of Nvidia's soaring gross margin. A lack of available product has potentially mattered much more than Nvidia boasting superior data-center GPUs. What puts the company's gross margin forecast squarely in the spotlight is the undeniable ramp in external and internal competition Nvidia is now contending with. Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has declined for four consecutive quarters. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts. Most investors are closely following the development and production ramp of Advanced Micro Devices Instinct series AI-accelerating chips, as well as the rollout of China-based Huawei's AI solutions. However, the greatest threat to Nvidia's gross margin possibly comes from within. Many of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are members of the "Magnificent Seven." Industry-leading businesses with boatloads of cash flow and mammoth data center needs are spending big bucks on Hopper and Blackwell chips. The problem is these same businesses are also internally developing AI-GPUs for use in their data centers. Though they're not an external threat to Hopper or Blackwell, they're less costly, more readily available, and poised to take up valuable data center real estate. There's also the unknown of whether Huang's aggressive innovation cycle will ultimately end up hurting his company. Bringing advanced chips to market every 12 months threatens to rapidly depreciate the value of prior-generation AI-GPUs, such as Hopper. This could encourage businesses to delay upgrade cycles and/or opt for less costly but still very effective prior-generation AI-GPUs. Both decisions would be detrimental to Nvidia's GAAP gross margin. All of these fears may be playing out before our very eyes. Excluding the steep drop-off in gross margin during the previous quarter, which was related to a charge on H20 chips for China, the company's GAAP gross margin has fallen for four consecutive quarters. Nvidia's GAAP gross margin will clue Wall Street and investors into whether AI-GPU scarcity still persists, and if the company has maintained, or expects to retain, its premium pricing power. It's the premier operating metric to home in on after the closing bell.

Time To Buy? Riding High On AI

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify. It's that time of the quarter again! Nvidia (NVDA) will report its latest results after the closing bell, marking the last "Magnificent 7" member to reveal its numbers. The company's figures are watched far and wide - not only because they can impact hundreds of ETFs - but also because Nvidia is the clear leader of the AI revolution that has bolstered the overall market. By the numbers: Only a month ago, Nvidia became the first company in the world to reach the $4T valuation milestone amid expectations that hyperscalers will continue to build out their infrastructure, given consistent raises in capex projections. While there have been some concerns about how long those mega investments will keep up, Nvidia has continued to broaden its product pipeline (Blackwell Ultra and Jetson Thor), as well as expand into new markets (China, UAE and Saudi Arabia). Can the most valuable company in the world reach another record high? Quite possibly. Options trading already indicates that big price swings could be in store, with a gain or loss of as much as 6% for Nvidia in after-hours trading. Expectations are key here, so look beyond the consistent double-beat streak to guidance, as well as what analysts feel about the latest growth rates and projections. What else to watch: Pay close attention to China, which will likely be part of the post-earnings call with CEO Jensen Huang. An unconventional deal was recently cut for Nvidia (NVDA) to sell to China in exchange for paying the U.S. government 15% of those revenues, but the Chinese government later warned local companies of potential "backdoor security risks." Nvidia then reportedly halted production of those H20 chips, though Huang told reporters last week that "hopefully the response we've given to the Chinese government will be sufficient."

Nvidia Makes Bold Bet on Future As Earnings Loom

Nvidia (NVDA) is attempting to extend AI beyond the server rack and into the real world. The centerpiece is Jetson AGX Thor, a Blackwell-class processor designed to run autonomously on robots, production lines, and medical equipment, rather than just cloud data centers. As Nvidia's latest financial earnings report comes in after the bell on Aug. 27, the question isn't whether it can produce faster chips; it's whether Jetson can transform the advantage into a profit center without sacrificing premium margins. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The play extends Nvidia's entire stack-GPUs, high-speed networking, and CUDA/NIM software-to where latency and reliability are most important. Early activity from major robotics and logistics companies suggests that the flywheel is starting. Investors will look for signs of edge mix and price, how supply and export laws impact the deployment, and whether software attachment may make Jetson feel like a subscription rather than a cycle. Guidance should nudge rather than answer those questions. What Nvidia's Been Lining Up On the rack-scale side, Blackwell systems like the GB200 NVL72 connect 72 GPUs to a single NVLink domain, allowing large language model training and speedier real-time inference. The goal is performance without requiring a complete rebuild of the data center. Networking has also been gaining traction. Spectrum-X/Spectrum-XGS and the InfiniBand stack connect clusters so that AI traffic flows with less contention and higher determinism. And the software scaffolding becomes thicker. CUDA is the on-ramp, while AI Enterprise and NIM microservices are the "make it run anywhere" layers, which might shift more of the model toward recurring income rather than one-time cycles. Independent counts still place Nvidia around the ~80% mark in high-end AI chips, explaining why roadmaps continue to focus on this area despite the expansion of bespoke hardware. The wildcards haven't gone away-export constraints in China and tight packaging/HBM dynamics continue to affect what ships when-so keep an eye out for color on mix, availability, and how much of the stack is monetized in software. Bloomberg/Getty Images Nvidia Still Dominates the AI Server Market TrendForce estimates Nvidia powers ~90% of GPU-based AI servers and ~64% of all. AI chips globally (even after accounting for custom silicon), proving its grip on the market remains strong despite growing internal chip efforts from cloud giants. The runway is massive. Dell'Oro forecasts global data-center capex will top $1 trillion by 2029, driven by AI infrastructure. Bank of America expects AI accelerators to account for 65%+ of data-center spend by 2030, with Nvidia keeping an ~80% share. Meanwhile, Jetson Thor is pushing Nvidia's edge AI strategy forward - targeting robots, humanoids, and medical devices. From the cloud to the warehouse floor, Nvidia's end markets are expanding fast. If forecasts hold, its dominance may be just getting started. Nvidia's Jetson Thor Ushers in a New Era of Physical AI Nvidia just got in the robotics arms race - launching Jetson AGX Thor, its newest Blackwell-powered platform designed to supercharge the age of physical AI. Thor delivers a staggering 2,070 FP4 teraflops of AI compute with 128GB of memory, all within a 130-watt power envelope. That's 7.5x more AI compute and 3.5x better energy efficiency than its predecessor, Jetson Orin. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang didn't mince words: "We've built Jetson Thor for the millions of developers working on robotic systems that interact with and increasingly shape the physical world... Jetson Thor is the ultimate supercomputer to drive the age of physical AI and general robotics." Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Caterpillar, Figure, and Meta have already adopted it, and others, like OpenAI and John Deere, are actively testing it. "The development of capable humanoid robots hinges on our ability to run powerful AI models directly on the robot," said Figure CEO Brett Adcock. "Jetson Thor's server-class performance... allows us to deploy the large-scale generative AI models necessary for our humanoids." Amazon Robotics' Tye Brady called it a game-changer for logistics: "NVIDIA Jetson Thor offers the computational horsepower and energy efficiency necessary to develop and scale the next generation of AI-powered robots." Caterpillar's Joe Creed added, "Jetson Thor offers the AI performance we need... enhancing precision, reducing waste and improving safety." What to Watch in Nvidia's Q2 Earnings Nvidia plans to report after the bell on Wednesday, Aug. 27. The press announcement is normally released between 4:20 and 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET (2:00 p.m. PT). For many investors, the earnings report is the event to watch, apart from NVDA's AI ventures. What actually matters now? Guidance. Investors want to hear: * How rapidly Blackwell ramps up as Hopper demand begins to slow * Whether supply is still constraining shipments * Where gross margins are headed * If data center capex is expanding * How China and networking is evolving * How much software attachment contributes The call will also discuss hyperscaler spending intentions, the balance of inference and training, and Nvidia's buyback speed. What's next for Nvidia's stock price The setting is simple: a strong beat-and-raise might sustain the AI surge, but any signs of slower orders, packaging issues, or margin pressure could cause a reversal. Margins will be sharply focused. Management previously reported ~71.8% GAAP and ~72.0% non-GAAP gross margins, however China licensing and H20 product dynamics may pose a downside risk. The focus remains squarely on the Data Center, where Visible Alpha consensus is around $41 billion, driven by early Blackwell/GB200 traction and relieving networking bottlenecks. Q3 guidance is essential. Investors want to know how Blackwell and Rubin will be implemented, what hyperscaler capex patterns are, and whether the supply-demand balance will remain tight. The previous quarter established a high benchmark, with $44.1 billion in overall revenue and $39.1 billion from Data Center. To impress investors this time, Nvidia will likely need another beat-and-raise, sustained margins of around 72%, and confident commentary on GB200 uptake. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published August 27, 2025 at 9:47 AM.

Nvidia's earnings report will help to show whether the AI boom is overhyped or gaining steam

SAN FRANCISCO -- Chipmaker Nvidia will release a quarterly report Wednesday that could provide a better sense of whether the stock market has been riding an overhyped artificial intelligence bubble or is being propelled by a technological boom that's still gathering momentum. Nvidia become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market value of $4 trillion last month, and its stock price has gained another 13% since then to create an additional $500 billion in shareholder wealth. The latest financial results are due out Wednesday afternoon. They have become a key AI barometer during the past two years because Nvidia makes most of the chips that power the technology in vast data centers at the center of the boom. This summer's run-up has continued Nvidia's jaw-dropping rise from early 2023, when the company's market value was hovering around $400 billion. That was shortly after OpenAI's late 2022 release of its ChatGPT chatbot triggered the biggest craze in technology since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007. While the technology industry has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, it's also been a boon for the overall stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained 68% since the end of 2022, with AI fervor fueling much of the investor optimism. But even amid the general euphoria, there recently have been murmurs about whether AI mania will prove to be an echo of the late 1990s dot-com boom that culminated in an excruciating stock market meltdown in 2000 that eventually drove the U.S. economy and plunged Silicon Valley into a funk that lasted several years before the tech industry began to thrive again. Investors were recently spooked by a combination of an MIT report that said 95% of AI pilots fail and comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman floating the idea that the artificial intelligence market is in a bubble. And by some metrics, the stock prices of tech companies at the AI are looking frothy. For instance, Nvidia is trading at about 40 times its future earnings, roughly double the rate that investors traditionally believe is a reasonable level. Meanwhile, the market value of Microsoft, another AI leader, is hovering just below $4 trillion, while the values of other fellow pacesetters Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Google parent Alphabet currently range from $1.9 trillion to $2.5 trillion. Nvidia is expected to post another quarter of robust growth for the May-July period of its fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by FactSet research predict Nvidia will earn $1.01 per share, excluding certain items unrelated to its ongoing business, which would be a 49% increase from the same time last year. The analysts anticipated Nvidia's revenue would rise 53% from a year ago to about $46 billion. Those gains reflect the financial tsunami flooding the AI market as the biggest players spend heavily to build and expand data centers needed to power the technology. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are collectively budgeting more than $325 billion for investments in AI this year. With its dominant position in the AI chip market, Nvidia is reaping the benefits of that intense demand. Even so, the trajectory of Nvidia's growth has been tapering off. If analyst projections pan out, Nvidia's revenue growth for its latest quarter will be significantly lower than the 122% increase it posted during the same period last year. And Nvidia has also been losing business because of President Donald Trump's trade war with China. Following a ban on its AI chip sales in China, which resulted in a $4.5 billion blow to its finances during its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia estimated that the restrictions would cost it about approximately $8 billion in sales in this during the past quarter. Trump took the China handcuffs off of Nvidia earlier this month in return for a 15% cut of the company's sales in that country -- a compromise CEO Jensen Huang is expected to discuss with analysts while he shares his perspective on the state of the AI market on a call with investors.

AI leader Nvidia forecasts third-quarter revenue above estimates

Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, helped by robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips from cloud providers expanding infrastructure to power generative AI technology. The AI market bellwether expects revenue of US$54 billion, plus or minus 2 per cent, in the third quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of US$53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company said it has not assumed any shipments of its H20 chips to China in the outlook. Shares of the world's most valuable firm fell 5 per cent in extended trading. Nvidia shares have gained more than a third so far in 2025, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index's year-to-date rise of nearly 10 per cent. Still, demand has surged for Nvidia's advanced chips that can speedily process the large amounts of data used by generative AI applications as businesses race each other to dominate the new technology. Big Tech companies including Meta Platforms and Microsoft have been spending liberally to support their AI ambitions, and Nvidia is the biggest beneficiary, with a significant chunk of this spending funneled toward its chips. Enthusiasm for AI stocks, centered around Nvidia as Wall Street engaged in picks-and-shovels trading, has been the dominating force behind the rally of the S&P 500 Index over the last two years. But the company has been caught in the crossfire of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as the world's two largest economies claw for dominance of generative AI technology. In an unprecedented deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, Nvidia has agreed to pay the government 15 per cent of some of its revenue in China in exchange for a reversal of restrictions that curbed sales of its H20 chips to China. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies about imports and sources said that Nvidia has halted production of H20 chips. Nvidia had in May expected the curbs to shave off US$8 billion in sales from the July quarter. The company reported revenue of US$46.74 billion for the second quarter, beating estimates of US$46.06 billion. It said there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter. --- Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Max A. Cherney and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Maju Samuel

Nvidia Earnings Preview: Can the AI Giant Keep Soaring to a $5T Market Cap? | Investing.com UK

Looking for actionable trade ideas? Subscribe now to unlock access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners for up 50% off amid the summer sale! Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the undisputed leader in AI accelerators and graphics processing units (GPUs), is set to report its fiscal second-quarter results after market close at 4:20 PM ET today. A call with CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. Consensus expectations indicate another period of standout growth, as the tech behemoth capitalizes on the dominant demand for AI infrastructure and accelerated computing. NVDA shares are currently trading at $181.72, valuing the Santa Clara-based chip titan at a market cap of roughly $4.4 trillion and making it the most valuable company in the world. Implied volatility points to a post-earnings move of +/-8% in either direction. Source: Investing.com With Wall Street bracing for a market cap swing of up to $260 billion after the report, this is a referendum on the entire AI-fueled tech rally. Here's what you need to know heading into the print: Analysts are expecting blowout growth across key metrics, driven by Nvidia's dominance in the AI hardware market. Source: Investing.com The year-over-year growth forecasts for Nvidia are figures that seem to belong to a hyper-growth startup, not one of the world's largest companies. The insatiable demand from cloud giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Google, as well as from sovereign nations building their own AI infrastructure, has created a demand tsunami for Nvidia's H100 and new Blackwell-generation GPUs. Nvidia is expected to beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. The Jensen Huang-led company has a long and consistent history of delivering results that surpass even the most bullish forecasts. The real drama, however, lies in the quality of that beat and, most critically, the forward guidance. The forecast for the next quarter is the most critical number in the entire report. It must come in comfortably above current expectations to signal that this unprecedented growth momentum is not slowing down. Most analysts remain bullish, but there's rising caution: KeyBanc warns Nvidia might guide below consensus for Q3 due to China uncertainty. At the same time, Morgan Stanley and Evercore raised targets but flagged export headwinds. Nvidia's report will send powerful ripples across the entire market, creating clear winners and losers based on the outcome. If Nvidia delivers a strong beat and raises guidance: This will be seen as a green light for the entire AI trade. It will validate the massive capital expenditures of cloud providers and provide a powerful tailwind for the entire semiconductor sector (Advanced (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO)), server makers (Super Micro (NASDAQ:SMCI), Dell (NYSE:DELL)), and AI-related software companies. As Nvidia has been the primary driver of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains, a strong report could ignite a broader market rally and reaffirm the tech-led bull market. If Nvidia meets estimates but provides in-line or cautious guidance: This is the nightmare scenario for the bulls. It would be interpreted as the first sign that the AI growth story is peaking, feeding concerns of a potential "AI bubble". Such a result would likely trigger significant, immediate profit-taking in Nvidia's stock and spark a sell-off across the entire AI ecosystem. Given the market's heavy concentration in Nvidia and other tech giants, a miss or weak guidance could be the catalyst for a much-needed market correction. The question Wall Street is asking is not if Nvidia will beat estimates, but by how much, and whether its forward guidance can possibly justify the stock's meteoric rise and the lofty valuations of countless other companies riding its coattails. *** InvestingPro provides a comprehensive suite of tools designed to help investors make informed decisions in any market environment. These include: Subscribe to InvestingPro at up to 50% off to see how simple smart investing can be when you have the right tools at your fingertips. Disclosure: At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ). I am also long on the Invesco Top QQQ ETF (QBIG), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), and VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH). I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies' financials. The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.

Nvidia options suggest mind-blowing $270 billion move in stock By Investing.com

Investing.com -- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings after the bell on Wednesday are set to test both the AI trade and broader market sentiment, with options markets signaling the potential for a record swing. Contracts imply a 6.1% move in either direction, which translates into about $270 billion in market value -- a shift larger than the market capitalization of most S&P 500 companies. Despite the staggering figure, it is actually the smallest expected post-earnings swing since the first quarter of 2024, when options priced in a bigger move. Over the last eight quarters, realized earnings-day swings have averaged 5.9%, consistently lower than the 8.6% average implied by options. Ahead of the results, analysts remain focused on whether Nvidia can deliver another beat-and-raise quarter. Piper Sandler expects "another positive quarter" with upside potential from both U.S. hyperscaler spending and renewed demand from China. The broker, which raised its price target on the stock to $225 from $180, forecasts roughly $45.1 billion in July-quarter revenue, in line with guidance, but sees potential for stronger results once China sales resume under the new licensing framework. It estimates China demand could add about $6 billion in the October-quarter sales, ramping further in 2026. Moreover, Piper Sandler analysts said they are "encouraged by hyperscaler commentary around capex plans" for the second half of 2025 and next year, "which should continue to pressure NVDA to meet this demand." Bank of America is similarly constructive, flagging "healthy beat/raise" potential on strong demand for Nvidia's latest Blackwell architecture and resilient AI capex across major cloud players. The bank projects July-quarter sales of $47 billion versus the $45 billion company guide and sees October-quarter revenues reaching $54 billion, or up to $60 billion if H20 chip shipments to China restart. Gross margins are expected to approach 73-74% by the third quarter, with an incremental boost possible if written-down inventory is utilized. It estimates fiscal 2026 revenues could rise toward $210-215 billion, with pro forma EPS between $4.70 and $4.80, above consensus. Looking further ahead, BofA believes Nvidia's fiscal 2027 earnings could approach $7 a share, compared with the current $5.87 consensus, if the AI market grows to about $341 billion from its $309 billion estimate, sustaining a 60% annual growth rate in 2026, in line with 2025.

Investors zero in on Nvidia results as US tech stocks waver

NEW YORK (Reuters) -A wobble in U.S. technology shares has raised the stakes for Nvidia Corp's quarterly results on Wednesday, with earnings from the semiconductor giant posing a crucial test for the scorching AI trade. The benchmark S&P 500 has pulled back this week from record levels, dragged lower by a roughly 3% drop so far this week in the heavyweight tech sector after a huge run for the group. Fueled by its dominant artificial intelligence (AI) products, Nvidia's massive share price gains have buoyed both the tech sector and the overall market in recent years. Last month, Nvidia became the first company to top $4 trillion in market value. Investors are now more "on edge" heading into Nvidia's results, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "When the group goes down and the most important stock in the group reports earnings, that is going to have a bigger impact than usual," Maley said. Nvidia's stock has climbed about 30% so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400% since October 2022. The California-based company has epitomized the broader AI excitement that has driven up shares of a raft of tech companies and others involved in AI infrastructure such as power generation and cooling systems. "Nvidia is almost looked at as a proxy to what is happening in artificial intelligence," said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. "There's definitely a read-through that happens to the broader AI trade, which has really been the main driver of the S&P 500's return this year." Analysts said possible reasons for recent tech stock weakness include cautionary AI industry developments, including comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that investors may be getting overexcited about AI. Nvidia's results will close out a second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season that has largely surpassed expectations and helped support equities. S&P 500 company earnings are on track to have climbed 12.9% from the year-earlier period, up from an expected 5.8% rise on July 1, according to LSEG IBES. Goldman Sachs strategists pointed to particular earnings strength so far for the "Magnificent 7" -- the group of megacap companies that includes Nvidia as well as Apple and Microsoft. Including estimates for Nvidia, the Magnificent 7 are on track to have increased earnings by 26% compared with 7% for the remaining 493 stocks in the index, the Goldman strategists said in a note. Nvidia is expected to post a 48% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $45.9 billion for its second fiscal quarter, according to LSEG data. Megacap tech companies focusing on AI have recently increased their estimates for capital spending, which should be favorable for Nvidia, said Paul Roach, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. Nvidia's "commentary on the demand side... should be more bullish just because their largest customers have all kind of upped their capex guidance over the last few quarters," Roach said, adding that demand for Nvidia's products is also broadening beyond the largest tech companies ECONOMIC DATA Investors will also focus on U.S. economic data in the coming week, including on consumer sentiment and inflation. Despite the latest week's tech-driven declines, the S&P 500 remains up over 8% this year and stands less than 2% below its record closing high. As tech shares fell this week, some investors rotated into other areas of the market that have not been as strong in recent weeks, such as healthcare and consumer staples. But major equity indexes will be hard-pressed to keep moving higher if tech falters, given its heavy presence in those indexes, Maley said. Tech is by far the largest of the S&P 500's 11 sectors, with a 33% weight. Nvidia alone has a nearly 8% weight in the index. "If these tech stocks continue to fall, that means the indexes will continue to fall," Maley said. "No way around it." (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by David Gregorio)

Wall St Week Ahead-Investors zero in on Nvidia results as US tech stocks waver

NVIDIA Corporation is the world leader in the design, development, and marketing of programmable graphics processors. The group also develops associated software. Net sales break down by family of products as follows: - computing and networking solutions (77.8%): data center platforms and infrastructure, Ethernet interconnect solutions, high-performance computing solutions, platforms and solutions for autonomous and intelligent vehicles, solutions for enterprise artificial intelligence infrastructure, crypto-currency mining processors, embedded computer boards for robotics, teaching, learning and artificial intelligence development, etc.; - graphics processors (22.2%): for PCs, game consoles, video game streaming platforms, workstations, etc. (GeForce, NVIDIA RTX, Quadro brands, etc.). The group also offers laptops, desktops, gaming computers, computer peripherals (monitors, mice, joysticks, remote controls, etc.), software for visual and virtual computing, platforms for automotive infotainment systems and cloud collaboration platforms. Net sales break down by industry between data storage (78%), gaming (17.1%), professional visualization (2.5%), automotive (1.8%) and other (0.6%). Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: the United States (44.3%), Taiwan (22%), China (16.9%) and other (16.8%).

Nvidia earnings: AI demand, China, and what else to watch for

(Reuters) - AI chipmaker Nvidia, the dominating force behind the rally in the S&P 500 index since 2023, is set to report second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after U.S. market close. Wall Street is holding its breath, and will scour the company's commentary for signs of a slowdown. Here is what to watch out for when the world's most valuable firm reports results: 1. While investors and analysts expect Nvidia to outperform market expectations on Wednesday, a key question is - by how much? After quarters of blazing triple-digit growth in 2024, the pace of Nvidia's revenue increases has slowed and the company is beating Wall Street estimates by smaller and smaller margins. For its second quarter ended July, the company is expected to report second-quarter revenue rose 53.2% to $46.02 billion, according to LSEG data, a far cry from the 122% growth rate it reported in the same period a year earlier. Gross margin - still eye-popping - is shrinking too. 2. Are concerns about the AI rally overblown? OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently said investors were "overexcited about AI". Tech firms including Meta and Microsoft - big buyers of Nvidia's chips - are spending liberally on their AI plans, and even if they are starting to see the green shoots of returns, the same cannot be said about most other companies. Nvidia's commentary about demand will either put investors at ease or prompt a selloff in AI-related shares. 3. Will China buy Nvidia chips? The chipmaker recently agreed to pay the U.S. federal government 15% of the sales it made in China in exchange for export licenses. But Beijing has cautioned domestic companies to limit purchases over security concerns. Reports have emerged that Nvidia has told some suppliers to suspend production of its China-special H20 chips. Commentary from Nvidia's management on the potential for selling to China will be important for gauging future demand. 4. The company's product roadmap to address the China market is key, after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its next-generation advanced Blackwell chip to Beijing. Reuters has reported Nvidia is developing a new AI chip for China based on the Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there.5. Supply of Nvidia's latest chips has fallen short of booming demand. A production ramp-up of its top-of-the-line Blackwell processors has proven to be challenging. Investors are watching out for commentary on how Nvidia's supply chains are powering up to deliver its sought-after processors. (Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Stephen Coates)

Dominant AI trade confronts test as bellwether Nvidia reports earnings

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The artificial intelligence theme that has propelled markets over the past couple years faces a crucial moment on Wednesday, when bellwether Nvidia Corp reports its second-quarter results. Technology shares, including a number of signature stocks in the AI trade, have wobbled this month with investors pointing to some signs of caution emerging in the AI industry. The declines have taken some of the steam out of an array of tech and other stocks that have sizzled since chatbot ChatGPT unleashed a frenzy over the potential for AI about three years ago. An equal-weighted basket of 50 AI-related stocks tracked by Bespoke Investment Group -- which includes many of the world's biggest tech companies -- has soared nearly 170% since the end of 2022, as of Monday. "AI is a critical piece of what is driving stocks right now," said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. This year, strong gains for number of heavyweight tech stocks exposed to AI have helped power major equity indexes to record highs. Semiconductor giant Nvidia has ridden its position as the dominant AI player to become the first company to top $4 trillion in market value last month. Its more-than 30% gain this year alone has accounted for nearly one quarter of the S&P 500's 10.4% year-to-date total return as of Monday, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. More broadly, 10 top AI plays have contributed nearly half of the index's year-to-date return, according to BCA Research. Shares of data and analytics firm Palantir Technologies, have doubled, while other chipmakers including Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices have also handily outpaced the broader market. Earlier in the reporting period, companies such as Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet unveiled significant capital spending, as AI helped results. AI stock enthusiasm has spread beyond tech and tech-related areas including to utilities and power equipment companies amid spiking energy demand expected to be needed to fuel the technology. Industrial firm GE Vernova and utilities sector members Constellation Energy and Vistra are among the non-tech stocks that have put up strong gains in the past year, helped by AI excitement. The AI enthusiasm has helped drive stock valuations well above historical levels. The overall S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, last stood at 22.4 times, according to LSEG Datastream. That is near its highest level in over four years, and some 40% above its long-term average of 15.9. Tech -- which has by far the heaviest weighting in the S&P 500 of the 11 sectors -- has seen its forward P/E rise to 29.2, about 36% above its long-term average of 21.4, according to LSEG Datastream. "There is a risk that we have gotten a little bit ahead of our skis here and that some of the near-term expectations just won't be realized," BCA's Berezin said. The P/E valuations for both the tech sector and the S&P 500 are still below highs reached during the late 1990s and early 2000s, when many stock prices ran up to exorbitant levels during the dawn of the internet, leading to a steep fall for tech stocks in the ensuing years. However, investors have pointed to the increasing presence of the tech sector in market indexes as a sign the market may be overly dependent on the performance of the group. The tech sector comprises slightly over one-third of the overall S&P 500's market value, not far from the 35% level it reached in March 2000, according to LSEG Datastream. Meanwhile, the combined market cap of the 10 biggest AI plays, including Nvidia, Broadcom and Microsoft -- stood at $18 trillion, BCA said in a note last week. That amounts to about 33% of S&P 500 stock market capitalization, up from around 15% in late 2022, according to BCA. Market concentration risk is "real and rising," Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist for Ameriprise Financial, said in a note Nvidia's "commentary on Wednesday could help set the table for how AI trends develop into year-end and, by extension, for a market now anchored to a small group of very large and influential technology stocks," Saglimbene said. (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; additional reporting by Lance Tupper; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski)

AI bellwether Nvidia forecasts Q3 revenue above forecasts

(Reuters) -AI chipmaker Nvidia, the dominating force behind the U.S. stock market rally since 2023, forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday. Helped by robust demand for its artificial intelligence chips from cloud providers expanding infrastructure to power generative AI technology, Nvidia expects revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the third quarter. That compared with analysts' average estimate of $53.14 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. Shares of the world's most valuable firm were down 2% in extended trading, paring steeper initial losses after the report. NVDA gained more than a third so far in 2025 to outpace the benchmark S&P 500 Index's year-to-date rise of nearly 10%. COMMENTS: DIMITRI ZABELIN, SENIOR ANALYST, AI, PITCHBOOK, SAN FRANCISCO, CA "Since the onset of the AI boom in late 2022, the company has largely beaten forecasts, propelled by explosive growth in its data center division. "As U.S. hyperscaler demand continues to expand, Nvidia is diversifying by turning to sovereign buyers to anchor the next wave of adoption, positioning national governments as strategic clients for its hardware. "PitchBook's comp sheet analysis also shows hyperscalers and AI infrastructure leaders outperforming benchmarks, underscoring durable demand for compute hardware as governments and enterprises step up procurement." LARRY TENTARELLI, CHIEF TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, BLUE CHIP DAILY TREND REPORT "In the very short-term, the stock is seeing some downside testing, as they did not drastically exceed the consensus forecasts. Beyond the short-term volatility, Nvidia remains the benchmark Artificial Intelligence stock and the most direct way to invest in the theme. "The AI trade has been the major driver of this bull market over the past 30 months and we expect that both AI and Nvidia will continue to lead. "CEO Jensen Huang's comments on the conference call will be closely monitored by markets, but barring any slowdown comments from Huang, we would be buyers of Nvidia on any near-term weakness. In our view, this is the dominant AI market leader to own." CHUCK CARLSON, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, HORIZON INVESTMENT SERVICES, HAMMOND, INDIANA The results "were okay. They weren't blow-the-doors-off, but nor were they bad. And I think the stock price movement is going to depend a lot on what they say on the earnings call, especially if they give color on China." "I think people were a little disappointed in the data center number, which looks like the sequential growth was about 5% ... and I think people might have been looking for a little bit more on that side." "I'm not surprised that the stock in the after-market is down a bit, but it is not down a ton, especially given the strength that the stock is showing so far this year." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)

'More room to run' for AI-related stocks, market expert says

STORY: AI hype has helped push U.S. stocks to fresh records this year. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently said investors were "overexcited about AI." Tech firms including Meta and Microsoft are spending liberally on their AI plans, and even if they are starting to see the green shoots of returns, the same cannot be said about most other companies. Leading AI chip maker Nvidia reports earnings after the market close on Wednesday. While investors and analysts expect Nvidia to outperform market expectations, a key question is - by how much? As revenue growth slows, the company is beating estimates by smaller and smaller margins.