Oracle's AI Forecast Boosts S&P 500 Amid Middle East Tensions and Boeing Setback

3 Sources

The S&P 500 ended higher as Oracle's strong AI outlook fueled tech optimism, counterbalancing Middle East concerns and Boeing's decline following a tragic plane crash.

Oracle's AI Forecast Ignites Market Rally

The S&P 500 concluded Thursday's trading session on a positive note, primarily driven by Oracle's robust outlook on artificial intelligence (AI). Oracle's shares surged to record highs, climbing 13.3% after the cloud service provider raised its annual revenue growth forecast, citing strong demand for its AI-related services 123. This development not only boosted Oracle but also had a ripple effect on other tech giants, with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom each gaining over 1% 2.

Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, commented on the significance of Oracle's performance, stating, "Oracle is another piece in the mosaic of AI capex spending and the ongoing need for more compute that feeds into the AI revolution" 123. This sentiment underscores the growing importance of AI in driving market trends and investor confidence.

Boeing Setback and Middle East Tensions

While the tech sector celebrated, Boeing faced a significant setback. The aircraft manufacturer's shares fell by almost 5% following a tragic incident involving an Air India 787-8 Dreamliner jet. The plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Ahmedabad, India, resulting in over 200 fatalities 123. This event not only impacted Boeing's stock but also raised concerns about aviation safety.

Adding to market complexities, rising tensions in the Middle East weighed on global markets. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the relocation of U.S. personnel from the region, citing potential dangers. The ongoing nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, with the next round scheduled in Oman, further contributed to market uncertainty 123.

Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Expectations

Source: Economic Times

Source: Economic Times

The market's performance was also influenced by recent economic data. Softer-than-expected producer price data and initial jobless claims suggested a potential weakening in the labor market. These indicators helped alleviate investor concerns about tariff-driven price pressures and bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve 123.

Traders are now projecting a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain current rates at its upcoming policy meeting next week 123.

Market Performance and Sector Analysis

The S&P 500 closed at 6,045.26 points, marking a 0.38% increase. The Nasdaq gained 0.24%, reaching 19,662.49 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 42,967.62 points 3. Trading volume was notably high, with 23.5 billion shares traded, significantly above the 20-session average of 18.0 billion shares 3.

Among the S&P 500 sectors, utilities led the gains with a 1.26% increase, followed closely by information technology, which rose 1.01% 3. The positive sentiment extended to gold miners as well, with companies like Newmont, Harmony Gold, and AngloGold Ashanti seeing substantial gains as bullion prices reached a one-week high 23.

Future Outlook and Recession Probability

Despite the day's gains, the S&P 500 remains approximately 2% below its February record high. However, investor optimism is buoyed by expectations of potential trade agreements between the U.S. and several countries in the coming weeks 123.

In a positive development for economic outlook, Goldman Sachs reduced its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 35%, citing decreased uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies 123. This adjustment reflects growing confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst global trade tensions and technological advancements, particularly in the AI sector.

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