Recursion Pharmaceuticals: AI-Driven Drug Discovery Faces Challenges Amid Market Skepticism

Cathie Wood Is Betting on This AI Stock: Is It a Buy? | The Motley Fool

Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the way we do business. Companies are racing to implement it in umpteen different ways, knowing that the most successful will reap immense financial benefits. That's why investors are also searching for the most exciting AI stocks, but picking the right one might not be easy. How about getting some inspiration from famous investors? Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, has several AI stocks in her investment management firm's actively managed ETFs. One of them is Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX -2.08%), a company looking to use AI to revolutionize the drug development process. Should investors follow Cathie Wood's lead? Recursion Pharmaceuticals runs a virtual laboratory that uses an operating system (OS) with an AI-powered algorithm to test (virtually) clinical compounds against human genes to predict the most promising candidates to send to clinical trials. If the company's approach proves successful, it could significantly decrease the time and money drugmakers spend developing their products to send to market. Considering that a drug's development can exceed $2 billion for up to a decade, there is a market for what Recursion Pharmaceuticals is attempting. Imagine the cost savings it could incur and pass on to patients if it decreases the time to discover a medicine by a factor of 10, as it might be able to do. Recursion could also license its OS to other drugmakers if it proves successful. Between that and fundamentally changing the way drugmakers operate, Recursion Pharmaceuticals has the potential to deliver outsized returns to its shareholders. Yet, the stock makes a tiny percentage of Ark Invest's combined holdings, less than 0.01% as of this writing. It could be that despite how promising Recursion looks, Cathie Wood and her team think there are even better plays out there. Or, more likely, Recursion's project still looks speculative, so the famed investor is hedging her bet. After all, the company has no products on the market. It has produced some results, though. The company spends a little over $5 million before sending an investigational new drug application (approval before a drug can start clinical trials) versus the industry average of over $25 million. Recursion Pharmaceuticals also spends 11 months before identifying lead candidates -- the average for the industry is 30 months. Still, until Recursion's products make it to the market, it will be hard for the company to win over investors. Recursion Pharmaceuticals went public in 2021. Since then, the company has lost 78% of its value. However, it is entering a critical stretch. Recursion will have several data readouts from phase 1 and 2 clinical trials in the next 18 months. Each positive result could be a small vote of confidence in favor of Recursion's aims. There is no guarantee that things will turn out that way, though, and if the biotech records mostly failures, its shares will sink. Of note, Recursion's first such data readout came in last month, and it was a success. Its REC-994 hit its safety and tolerability primary endpoint in a phase 2 study in treating symptomatic cerebral cavernous malformation. In another positive note, Recursion has entered into agreements with several pharmaceutical giants: Roche, Sanofi, and Bayer. It's always a good sign when smaller drugmakers enter into such partnerships with larger ones; it's a sign that some of its candidates may look promising. It also means Recursion is much less likely to run into funding issues or, for that matter, to succumb to unexpected regulatory roadblocks, at least for those programs it is developing with its bigger partners. Even considering this aspect of Recursion'a business, it remains a risky biotech company. Interested investors should proceed with caution. Following Cathie Wood's lead, initiating a small position in the company would be best, potentially increasing it as Recursion Pharmaceuticals proves that its approach works.

Down 57% in 2024, Is Recursion Pharmaceuticals a Buy on the Dip? | The Motley Fool

This clinical-stage drugmaker's AI platform could speed up the development process, but initial results were disappointing. The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is pushing up the overall stock market, but not every AI stock is performing well. Shares of Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX 1.51%) are down by more than half from a peak they set this spring. The start-up drugmaker disappointed investors with lackluster results for its lead candidate in September. Luckily, it has a deep pipeline of less-advanced candidates that could allow its AI-powered platform to redeem itself. Recursion Pharmaceuticals shares have been a disaster for investors who've been holding them. After falling by more than half in less than a year, though, the stock could be a bargain now. Here's a look at what went wrong and some upcoming catalysts that could push the stock higher down the road to see if this stock is a bargain at its beaten-down valuation. Recursion has built a platform that uses AI and automation to select therapeutic targets and new drug candidates that act on them. Recently, it lowered the time it takes to advance a new program from target selection to clinical-stage testing to under 18 months. This means its already robust pipeline of clinical-stage new drug candidates could get a lot larger. In early September, Recursion reported results from the first placebo-controlled trial with one of its candidates, REC-994. The company is testing it as a treatment for cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM), a progressive condition that affects over 360,000 diagnosed patients in the U.S. and EU. The brains and spinal cords of patients with CCM are fed by malformed blood vessels. Oxidative stress is thought to be responsible, so REC-994, a superoxide dismutase inhibitor also known as tempol, could alleviate the condition. Any drug developer worth their salt probably doesn't need an AI platform to tell them a condition caused by oxidative stress could be alleviated with an antioxidant. Nevertheless, that's the story investors bought with both hands when this stock's market cap shot above $6 billion in 2021. According to the company, tempol's potential in CCM was demonstrated using the earliest version of the company's foundational technology. Recursion's stock price got hammered in September because tempol wasn't very effective, which could mean its AI platform is a dud too. After 12 months of treatment, patients who received the highest dose tested showed a trend toward improvement compared to those randomized to receive a placebo. Unfortunately, the measurements weren't strong enough to be considered statistically significant. In August, Recursion told investors to expect data from 10 clinical trials over the next 18 months. The REC-994 program is the only one that's produced results so far, which suggests there will be nine more readouts over the next 16 months. In June 2022, Recursion began the phase 2/3 Poplar trial with REC-2282. This is a pan-HDAC inhibitor for the treatment of brain and spinal cord tumors that are driven by NF2 mutations. Top-line results from the initial, open-label portion of the study should be ready before the end of 2024. In the first half of 2025, there should be results from an open-label phase 2 trial with REC-4881 and a variety of cancer patients with inoperable tumors driven by AXIN1 or APC mutations. We'll also see how REC-4881 performs in a placebo-controlled trial with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) patients. After REC-994's disappointing data, expectations aren't nearly as high as they used to be. The company's market cap has fallen to about $1.9 billion at recent prices. A rousing success for REC-2282 this year, or REC-4881 in 2025, could reignite some confidence in Recursion's platform and drive the stock higher. Unfortunately, $1.9 billion is still a rich valuation for a clinical-stage company that hasn't produced convincing placebo-controlled results for any of its candidates yet. Recursion will take a lot of shots on goal over the next 16 months. Unfortunately, there still isn't any reason to assume the candidates its AI platform selects have a better chance of becoming commercial-stage products than candidates discovered the old-fashioned way. The best move for everyday investors is to stay on the sidelines until after Recursion shows successful results from a controlled study and proves its platform has some value.