Researchers Criticize "Digital Twin of Earth" Concept, Highlighting Limitations of AI-Powered Climate Models

Digital Twins of the Earth is a misleading term as computer models are always a simplified representation of reality

The term Digital Twin of the Earth creates the idea of the availability of a highly accurate virtual copy of our planet, enabling researchers to predict the most complex future climate developments and extreme natural events. In fact, such a replica -- or model representation of the Earth systems -- is the goal of the Destination Earth project, funded by the European Union. This flagship initiative was launched in 2022 as a key pillar of the European Commission's efforts towards the Green Deal -- not without attracting criticism. "We have seen various highly critical papers and reports on the subject recently, and we are joining this discussion," said Professor Robert Reinecke of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). In an article published in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, Reinecke and his co-authors point out the lack of a clear definition of the term "Digital Twin of the Earth," which may be misleading. "All digital representations of our planet are model representations. As such, they will always be detached from reality -- as a map can never fully replicate the land it depicts," said Reinecke. Being an expert in the field of Earth system modeling, the Mainz-based geoscientist values the new detailed simulation models as tools to interrogate and assess theories about the world in ways not possible otherwise. At the same time, however, new methods and methodology are required to ensure that these models are appropriately used and interpreted. EU initiative Destination Earth to help climate change adaptation Destination Earth (DestinE) is a flagship initiative of the European Commission, aiming to develop a highly accurate digital model of the Earth -- a digital twin of our planet. It is based on Europe's High-performance computers (EuroHPC), including the LUMI supercomputer in Finland, as well as on Artificial Intelligence capacities. DestinE is now creating several digital replicas covering various aspects of the Earth system. By 2030, a full digital replica of the Earth should be available, which would then contribute to more accurate monitoring and predicting of the effects of climate change and natural disasters and support the design of adaptation strategies and mitigation measures. The Digital Twin concept has found its way into other fields as well: the German Federal Agency for Carthography and Geodesy is currently working on a digital, intelligent 3D image of Germany and the German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate is running a digital "hydro-twin" project. Misleading term for impossible representation of reality / Understanding the differences between the world and scientific modeling Professor Robert Reinecke and his two co-authors, Professor Francesca Pianosi of the University of Bristol in the UK and Alexander von Humboldt Professor Thorsten Wagener of the University of Potsdam, consider the term Digital Twin of the Earth problematic and inappropriate because "it suggests that we can create a digital representation that allows us to stress-test the structural properties of the Earth system with any desired degree of accuracy and precision," as they pointed out in their paper in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling. That is not the case, however, "as every model is a simplification of reality, and its creation requires simplifying assumptions that will unavoidably lead to uncertainties," the researchers continued. "We thus recommend refraining from using the term Digital Twin of the Earth," said Reinecke. Investing in methods to ensure appropriate use of models and data Reinecke and his team at the JGU Institute of Geography work with models that encompass the whole planet, and he understands the motivation of the EU initiative. Simulation models are excellent digital laboratories that allow researchers to interrogate and check their assumptions about the world in ways otherwise not possible in real-world experiments. According to Reinecke, however, the creation of new models with higher resolutions will not necessarily lead to an improvement in knowledge and results. Moreover, new complex models need new methodologies that will enable researchers to apply them. Simulation models usually need to be run over and over again, thousands to millions of runs, in order to understand how a model works and what factors play a role -- whether, for instance, certain input data has a particular effect on the model results. "We need to invest in new methodologies and methods that will ensure that we use them appropriately. We have sketched out preliminary ideas already and my team and I will continue to work on this in future." Finally, Reinecke and his co-authors state the question whether a Digital Twin of the Earth itself could represent a risk in that the "reductionist view of nature as a machine" may lead to the erosion of democratic principles "as they may end up being used as political instruments for justification and control." In this connection, the authors cite the cautionary tale of the map maker who is commissioned to create the perfect map. As they state in their contribution to Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling: "Such a map is as impossible as a perfect digital representation of reality. Scientists and decision-makers alike should not fall for this fallacy."

Digital twins of the Earth: Researchers are critical of the term

The term "digital twin of the Earth" creates the idea of the availability of a highly accurate virtual copy of our planet, enabling researchers to predict the most complex future climate developments and extreme natural events. In fact, such a replica -- or model representation of the Earth systems -- is the goal of the Destination Earth project. This flagship initiative was launched in 2022 as a key pillar of the European Commission's efforts towards the Green Deal -- not without attracting criticism. "We have seen various highly critical papers and reports on the subject recently, and we are joining this discussion," said Professor Robert Reinecke of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). In an article published in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, Reinecke and his co-authors point out the lack of a clear definition of the term "digital twin of the Earth," which may be misleading. "All digital representations of our planet are model representations. As such, they will always be detached from reality -- as a map can never fully replicate the land it depicts," said Reinecke. Being an expert in the field of Earth system modeling, the Mainz-based geoscientist values the new detailed simulation models as tools to interrogate and assess theories about the world in ways not possible otherwise. At the same time, however, new methods and methodology are required to ensure that these models are appropriately used and interpreted. EU initiative Destination Earth to help climate change adaptation Destination Earth (DestinE) is a flagship initiative of the European Commission, aiming to develop a highly accurate digital model of the Earth -- a digital twin of our planet. It is based on Europe's High-performance computers (EuroHPC), including the LUMI supercomputer in Finland, as well as on Artificial Intelligence capacities. DestinE is now creating several digital replicas covering various aspects of the Earth system. By 2030, a full digital replica of the Earth should be available, which would then contribute to more accurate monitoring and predicting of the effects of climate change and natural disasters and support the design of adaptation strategies and mitigation measures. The digital twin concept has found its way into other fields as well: the German Federal Agency for Carthography and Geodesy is currently working on a digital, intelligent 3D image of Germany and the German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate is running a digital "hydro-twin" project. Professor Robert Reinecke and his two co-authors, Professor Francesca Pianosi of the University of Bristol in the UK and Alexander von Humboldt Professor Thorsten Wagener of the University of Potsdam, consider the term "digital twin of the Earth" problematic and inappropriate because "it suggests that we can create a digital representation that allows us to stress-test the structural properties of the Earth system with any desired degree of accuracy and precision," as they point out in their paper. That is not the case, however, "as every model is a simplification of reality, and its creation requires simplifying assumptions that will unavoidably lead to uncertainties. We thus recommend refraining from using the term 'digital twin of the Earth,'" said Reinecke. Investing in methods to ensure appropriate use of models and data Reinecke and his team at the JGU Institute of Geography work with models that encompass the whole planet, and he understands the motivation of the EU initiative. Simulation models are excellent digital laboratories that allow researchers to interrogate and check their assumptions about the world in ways otherwise not possible in real-world experiments. According to Reinecke, however, the creation of new models with higher resolutions will not necessarily lead to an improvement in knowledge and results. Moreover, new complex models need new methodologies that will enable researchers to apply them. Simulation models usually need to be run over and over again, thousands to millions of runs, in order to understand how a model works and what factors play a role -- whether, for instance, certain input data has a particular effect on the model results. "We need to invest in new methodologies and methods that will ensure that we use them appropriately. We have sketched out preliminary ideas already and my team and I will continue to work on this in future." Finally, Reinecke and his co-authors state the question whether a digital twin of the Earth itself could represent a risk in that the "reductionist view of nature as a machine" may lead to the erosion of democratic principles "as they may end up being used as political instruments for justification and control." In this connection, the authors cite the cautionary tale of the map maker who is commissioned to create the perfect map. As they state in their contribution to Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling: "Such a map is as impossible as a perfect digital representation of reality. Scientists and decision-makers alike should not fall for this fallacy."