Sam Altman Predicts AGI by 2030, Foresees Major AI Impact on Jobs and Economy

Sam Altman predicts Artificial General Intelligence by 2030, says AI will take over 40% of tasks

Serving tech enthusiasts for over 25 years. TechSpot means tech analysis and advice you can trust. Crystal ball: Sam Altman has given another prediction on when artificial general intelligence (AGI) - an AI vastly smarter than humans - will arrive: the OpenAI boss said that "superintelligence" will be here by 2030. He also said that 30-40% of tasks that happen in the economy today will be taken over by AI in the not very distant future. Jan Philipp Burgard, editor-in-chief of the Die Welt newpaper, interviewed Altman on behalf of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network this week in Berlin. Altman was in Germany's capital to receive this year's Axel Springer Award. The interview covered several areas, including the development of an AI superintelligence. Altman said that the latest GPT-5 model is in many ways smarter than a lot of people, himself included, but an actual superintelligent AI will emerge before the end of the decade. "If we don't have models [by 2030] that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised," he said. We've already seen thousands of people laid off as a result of generative AI, either directly or indirectly. Burgard asked Altman what percentage of today's jobs are likely to disappear in the foreseeable future. Altman, not wanting to paint too pessimistic a picture, pointed out that many jobs from 30 years ago do not exist today, even without the influence of AI. The CEO was less willing to put a figure on what percentage of jobs will be taken by AI; instead, he claimed 30-40% of tasks that "happen in the economy" will be done by AI in the not very distant future. When asked about what advice he would give to his son so his job won't be replaced by AI in 30 years, Altman said, "the meta-skill of learning how to learn, of learning to adapt, learning to be resilient to a lot of change. Learning how to figure out what people want, how to make useful products and services for them, how to interact in the world." Altman was also asked if he agreed with AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, who said that the relationship between superintelligence and humans is roughly the same as the relationship between humans and ants. Does Altman fear that AI could eventually view us as ants and destroy us? Unsurprisingly, Altman thinks AGI will treat humanity as a loving parent. This is similar to the views of AI "godfathers" Geoffrey Hinton and Meta's Yann LeCun, who recently said that building "maternal instincts" into AI models was important to ensure that "they really care about people." Altman did admit that there could be side effects and consequences to using AGI that we don't understand, "And so it is very important that we align it to human values. But we get to align this tool to human values and I don't think it'll treat humans like ants. Let's say that." Burgard broached the subject of many tech companies reversing their previous liberal-democratic leanings to show support for Donald Trump. Altman said he believes the tech industry should work with whomever the US president is, adding that there has been some welcome policy changes since Trump was inaugurated this year, citing a "more general pro-business climate and pro-tech climate." Altman finished by saying he expects more presidents and leaders around the world to use AI for decisions. Given the controversy Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stirred up after revealing that he regularly consults AI chatbots in his role as head of government, plenty of people will likely disagree with Altman on this one. Finally, Altman confessed that unlike many users, he doesn't turn to ChatGPT for help with relationship issues.

Sam Altman thinks AI will surpass human intelligence by 2030. His rival AI billionaires say it'll be even sooner | Fortune

Sam Altman has made his boldest prediction yet about when AI will surpass human intelligence. Altman, always the AI optimist, has previously touted AI's potential to someday outthink humans, but the technology's past three years of progress since OpenAI kicked off the AI arms race with ChatGPT's release has shown him this moment could come sooner rather than later. "I would certainly say that by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised," he said in an interview with German newspaper die Welt. The company's newest AI model is already smarter than him, Altman added, and the future looks even more optimistic. While AI may still not be able to do some things humans can do easily, models developed as soon as 2026 could be "quite surprising," and progress rapidly, Altman said. "I can easily imagine a world where 30% to 40% of the tasks that happen in the economy today get done by AI in the not very distant future," he said. Altman's prediction is slightly less optimistic than that of other AI researchers and CEOs who have said the tech will make significant progress in just a couple of years. Former OpenAI employee and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stands out for his belief that AI will beat out humans "in almost everything" by 2027. Elon Musk, the founder of xAI known for his rosy predictions, believes AI will surpass the intelligence of the smartest human by next year. Yet, Altman noted that humans, despite the capacity of high-powered technology, will always care about what other humans are doing. "I think these qualities will be increasingly important in the world of AI," he said. "We'll have an incredible tool at our disposal, but we still have to figure out what to do, what other people want, and what other people will find useful." Pushing the limits To be sure, as the fifth most popular website in the world, according to Altman, ChatGPT is already limited by the large amounts of energy and massive data centers it needs to operate. Altman previously said the company has built models more advanced than GPT-5, but can't release them publicly because it doesn't have the appropriate infrastructure. Still, Altman is optimistic. In Abilene, Texas, OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank are rapidly building out an 800-acre data center complex that will serve as the flagship site for the Trump-approved "Stargate" infrastructure project. OpenAI and Oracle also said they are working together to build five new data center complexes across the U.S. over the next few years, Fortune's Sharon Goldman reported. "This site is just a small fraction of what we're building. All of that still won't be enough to serve even the demand of ChatGPT," he said during an event at the Texas site this week. All of this infrastructure will help AI meet the ambitious mission of redefining the world, but Altman thinks the technology is well on its way. "In another couple of years, it will become very plausible for AI to make, for example, scientific discoveries that humans cannot make on their own," he told die Welt. "To me, that'll start to feel like something we could properly call superintelligence."