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[Editorial] Is the Korean economy prepared to weather compounding crises?
Amid anticipation of an Iranian response to a recent Israeli offensive and worries about economic stagnation in the US, stock markets throughout Asia tanked on Monday as investors fell into a widespread panic, making for the worst "Black Monday" in history. Compounding crises in both the US and the Middle East are aggregating with fears about an AI bubble and markets around the world are roiling. The South Korean government needs to thoroughly analyze and observe market conditions and act swiftly to minimize damage to the South Korean market. At one point during trading, the KOSPI index fell over 10%, compared to the previous day, on the Korea Exchange on Monday. The index somewhat recovered later to close the day at a drop of 8.77%. After both the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ indexes fell over 8%, the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker, a regulatory emergency measure that halts all trading, for the first time in nearly four and a half years. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell 12.4%, and markets in Taiwan, Singapore, and Australia all took massive dives. The crash in key markets around the world seems to have been caused by worries about an economic recession in the US, where the unemployment rate was reported to be 4.3% in July, the highest in three years. Fears of a recession were coupled with concerns over a bubble related to AI firms, which saw astronomical rises before the crash. South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued a press release on this day saying that it will "maintain a high level of vigilance." It went on to say that the government and the Bank of Korea will "keep a 24-hour monitoring system for financial markets at home and abroad and respond according to contingency plans if necessary under a close collaboration among relevant agencies." A decisive factor that could exacerbate economic anxiety is another hot war in the Middle East. An Israeli offensive in Iran killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31. Iran has vowed retaliation. During his meeting with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Tehran on Friday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, "This was a grave mistake by the Zionist regime that will not go unanswered." During a meeting with his G7 counterparts on Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that it's possible that Iran and Hezbollah, an anti-Israeli militant group based in Lebanon, would attack Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours. While the war in Gaza, which began last October, is causing much suffering among the Palestinians, the pain it has caused the global economy is relatively minor. Yet if the longtime enemies of Israel and Iran engage in a full-scale hot war, the conflict could easily spread to the wider Middle East. This would disrupt the flow of crude oil from the Middle East to East Asia. Now is not the time for South Korean politicians to squabble amongst each other. They need to prepare for the external shocks that lie ahead.
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Beware of external woes
Authorities, market should remain ready to employ contingency plans South Korea's stock markets, which had been rattled the previous day by fears of a potential U.S. economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rebounded, Tuesday, providing relief to investors and policymakers. The main KOSPI index recovered 3.3 percent to close at 2,522.1, Tuesday, after a sharp drop of 8.77 percent the day before. The secondary Kosdaq also gained 6 percent to finish at 722.87, following an 11.3 percent decline the previous day. The steep losses had prompted authorities to activate circuit breakers for both the KOSPI and Kosdaq, marking the first use of those measures in four years and five months. With the markets rebounding, the prevailing view is that a recession in the world's largest economy is not imminent. Financial authorities in Korea moved swiftly on Tuesday to urge calm, emphasizing that the recent decline was confined to the stock market and not reflective of broader economic conditions. They suggested that Seoul should treat this scare as a warning and focus on strengthening its economic fundamentals. Fears of a possible recession and stock sell-offs had already been evident in U.S. markets late the previous week. The situation intensified with the U.S. Labor Department's announcement on Friday, which revealed that the American economy added just 114,000 jobs in July, marking the second- worst performance in the past 43 months. Additionally, U.S. unemployment rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level in nearly three years. The situation was further compounded by disappointing quarterly earnings from major U.S. tech companies, which even sparked concerns about a potential "AI bubble." Finance Minister Choi Byung-mok stressed in a meeting with Bank of Korea Gov. Rhee Chang-yong, Kim Byoung-hwan, chief of the Financial Services Commission and others, Tuesday, that the government has policy tools necessary to deal with any contingencies. In the U.S., there is significant criticism of the Federal Reserve for missing the optimal timing to implement a rate cut, with many observers anticipating a substantial 0.5 percentage point reduction. Some have even called for an earlier, emergency cut. The BOK will likely face pressure to align its policies with the Fed's moves. However, the central bank faces a challenging dilemma with rising housing prices and increasing household debt. The Korean government also bears some responsibility for delaying the implementation of the second-stage stress-based debt-to-service ratio for loans. The best course of action would be to proceed with the planned implementation in September. Policymakers need to address the real estate and housing market more proactively and move beyond their current complacency. As the U.S. has re-emerged as Korea's largest export market, its economic slowdown and skepticism about the artificial intelligence sector could complicate the recovery of Korean semiconductors. Korea Inc. has been struggling post-pandemic, with the economy contracting by 0.2 percent in the second quarter of this year. The government must act decisively and address both external and internal factors impacting the economy. One of its most pressing tasks is to manage the heated housing sector. Policymakers, known for their elite backgrounds, need to develop a plan to stabilize housing prices while minimizing negative impacts. Meanwhile, the National Assembly must put an end to the cycle of partisan conflict, where the opposition's slew of impeachment and special counsel bills are met with filibusters and presidential vetoes from the ruling party. With new leaderships established in both the ruling People Power Party and the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, bipartisan cooperation is essential to prioritize the nation's economic stability.
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South Korea faces a severe demographic crisis with record-low birth rates and an aging population. The government's policies have been ineffective, calling for urgent and comprehensive reforms.
South Korea is grappling with a demographic crisis of unprecedented proportions. The country's total fertility rate has plummeted to a mere 0.78 in 2022, setting a new global low
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. This alarming figure is far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, signaling a looming demographic disaster that threatens the nation's social and economic fabric.Despite the gravity of the situation, the South Korean government's efforts to address the declining birth rate have been largely ineffective. Since 2006, over 280 trillion won ($213 billion) has been invested in various initiatives aimed at encouraging childbirth and supporting families
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. However, these policies have failed to reverse the downward trend, raising questions about their efficacy and implementation.The root causes of South Korea's low fertility rate are complex and multifaceted. Economic pressures, including high housing costs, expensive education, and a competitive job market, have made many young Koreans hesitant to start families
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. Additionally, traditional gender roles and workplace cultures that are often unfriendly to working parents contribute to the problem.The declining birth rate, coupled with increasing life expectancy, is rapidly aging South Korea's population. This demographic shift poses significant challenges to the country's economic future. The shrinking workforce and growing elderly population will strain pension systems, healthcare services, and overall economic productivity
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.Experts argue that the government's approach to the demographic crisis requires a fundamental overhaul. Rather than focusing solely on financial incentives, policies must address the underlying social and economic factors deterring young people from having children
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. This includes tackling issues such as gender inequality, work-life balance, and the high costs of raising children.Related Stories
Addressing South Korea's demographic challenges will require a long-term, comprehensive strategy. This may involve reevaluating traditional notions of family, work, and success. Encouraging a more balanced and family-friendly work culture, promoting gender equality, and creating a supportive environment for child-rearing are crucial steps
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.South Korea's situation is not unique, as many developed countries face similar demographic challenges. However, the severity of Korea's case stands out. Learning from countries that have successfully implemented family-friendly policies and cultural shifts could provide valuable insights for Korean policymakers
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