South Korea's Export Growth Expected to Slow in September
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South Korea's export growth seen slowing further in September
SEOUL, Sept 27 (Reuters) - South Korea's exports are expected to have risen for a 12th straight month in September, but with the growth momentum slowing further, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 6.5% in September from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in the survey conducted Sept. 23-27. That would mark the slowest growth rate in three months. In August, the rate fell to 11.2% from 13.5% the previous month. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Exports likely have entered a slowing cycle, analysts said. In September, there were also unfavourable calendar effects from a longer break for the Chuseok lunar thanksgiving holiday. "The slowdown in export growth is expected to become clearer going forward due to a slowing global manufacturing cycle and high comparison bases," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. South Korea is the first major exporting economy to report monthly trade figures each month, providing an early glimpse into the state of global demand. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Its exports have been growing since October 2023, led by semiconductor shipments, mostly to the United States, on demand related to artificial intelligence. "But, the growth in memory chip exports is weakening, while there is no other product growing strongly enough to offset that," said An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment Securities. "China's economy is remaining sluggish, and there is a high possibility of the U.S. economy gradually slowing as well," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities. The poll also forecast a rise of 3.0% for imports, weaker than a 6.0% gain in the previous month. The country's trade balance is expected to post a surplus for a 16th straight month. The median estimate in the survey was $5.79 billion for September, compared with $3.77 billion in August. South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for September on Tuesday, Oct. 1 at 9 a.m. KST (0000 GMT). Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
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South Korea's export growth seen slowing further in September
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's exports are expected to have risen for a 12th straight month in September, but with the growth momentum slowing further, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 6.5% in September from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in the survey conducted Sept. 23-27. That would mark the slowest growth rate in three months. In August, the rate fell to 11.2% from 13.5% the previous month. Exports likely have entered a slowing cycle, analysts said. In September, there were also unfavourable calendar effects from a longer break for the Chuseok lunar thanksgiving holiday. "The slowdown in export growth is expected to become clearer going forward due to a slowing global manufacturing cycle and high comparison bases," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. South Korea is the first major exporting economy to report monthly trade figures each month, providing an early glimpse into the state of global demand. Its exports have been growing since October 2023, led by semiconductor shipments, mostly to the United States, on demand related to artificial intelligence. "But, the growth in memory chip exports is weakening, while there is no other product growing strongly enough to offset that," said An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment Securities. "China's economy is remaining sluggish, and there is a high possibility of the U.S. economy gradually slowing as well," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities. The poll also forecast a rise of 3.0% for imports, weaker than a 6.0% gain in the previous month. The country's trade balance is expected to post a surplus for a 16th straight month. The median estimate in the survey was $5.79 billion for September, compared with $3.77 billion in August. South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for September on Tuesday, Oct. 1 at 9 a.m. KST (0000 GMT). (Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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South Korea's export growth is anticipated to decelerate further in September, according to a Reuters poll. This trend reflects ongoing challenges in the global economy and trade dynamics.
Projected Export Growth Slowdown
South Korea, a major player in the global export market, is expected to see a further slowdown in its export growth for September. According to a Reuters poll of 16 economists, exports are projected to rise by 1.7% compared to the same period last year
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. This marks a significant deceleration from the 3.1% growth observed in August, indicating a continuing trend of moderation in the country's export performance.Factors Influencing the Slowdown
Several factors contribute to this anticipated slowdown:
- Global economic challenges: The ongoing uncertainties in the global economy continue to impact international trade.
- Weak demand from China: As South Korea's largest trading partner, China's economic slowdown has a substantial effect on Korean exports.
- Base effect: The high comparison base from the previous year also plays a role in the perceived slowdown.
Import Projections and Trade Balance
The poll also provides insights into South Korea's import situation:
- Imports are expected to fall by 10.5% year-on-year in September
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. - This decline, while significant, represents an improvement from the 22.8% drop recorded in August.
As a result of these export and import trends, South Korea is projected to maintain a trade surplus for the fourth consecutive month. The surplus is estimated to be around $3.15 billion in September, slightly lower than August's $3.38 billion
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Economic Implications
The slowing export growth has broader implications for South Korea's economy:
- GDP growth concerns: As exports are a crucial driver of South Korea's economy, the slowdown may impact overall economic growth projections.
- Policy considerations: The Bank of Korea and the government may need to reassess their economic strategies in light of these trade trends.
- Industry-specific impacts: Certain sectors, particularly those heavily reliant on exports, may face challenges in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
While the September figures indicate a continuing slowdown, it's important to note that South Korea's exports are still growing, albeit at a slower pace. The country's ability to maintain export growth and a trade surplus in the face of global economic headwinds demonstrates the resilience of its export-oriented economy.
As the global economic landscape evolves, particularly with regard to China's economic performance and international trade dynamics, South Korea's export trends will remain a key indicator to watch for both domestic economic health and broader global trade patterns.
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