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On July 22, 2024
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[1]
Can Harris Walk the Tightrope?
President Biden dropped out of the 2024 race over the weekend and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The question now is whether Harris, or any other Democrat, will be similarly burdened by public unhappiness about the economy-or whether they can pivot to focusing on the future, writes The Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip. If Harris leads the Democratic ticket, she would be unlikely to dramatically shift the trajectory of Biden's agenda. Meanwhile, the stock market has suddenly turned upside down. Shares of smaller companies have jumped, while Big Tech stocks are lagging in recent days. And workers miss out on billions in investment gains by pulling retirement savings out of the stock market after switching jobs-often without meaning to. Read on for this news and more. Top News Biden Is Out, but His Economic Record Still Burdens His Replacement Joe Biden wanted to be a transformative president who expanded the state's role in American life as Lyndon B. Johnson had. To a striking extent, he succeeded, pushing through milestone legislation on infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing and green energy. But when the public thinks of Biden's economic record, they focus on something else: inflation, which in 2022 hit a 40-year high before receding. Inflation had already endangered Biden's re-election, even before concerns about his age emerged. U.S. Economy A Stock-Market Rotation of Historic Proportions Is Taking Shape Investors are scrambling to determine whether the reordering of winners and losers is a mere blip in an era of tech ascendancy-or if a sustainable shift is in fact under way. Financial Regulation The 401(k) Rollover Mistake That Costs Retirement Savers Billions When people roll 401(k) balances from their old company's plan into an individual retirement account, the money is frequently held as cash until they select new investments. Many never do, according to new research from Vanguard Group. Nearly a third who rolled savings into IRAs at Vanguard in 2015 still had the balance sitting in cash seven years later. 12 p.m.: SEC Office of Minority and Women Inclusion Fireside Chat with Chair Gensler 4 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan and Fed governor Michelle Bowman speak at Advance Together event Research Investors Stick To Bets On Fed Cuts Despite Political Turmoil Investors stick to bets that U.S. interest rates are set to fall this year despite higher political turbulence. CME data shows a hold next week and a cut on Sept. 18 each priced at more than 90%, with odds of a total of three cuts this year priced at nearly 50%. It is little changed from before Biden stepped out of the race. Wells Fargo economists say in a report they expect the Fed to open the door for a cutting after holding this month. They add the FOMC's track record indicates that the central bank won't shy away from cutting in their last meeting before the election. - Paulo Trevisani Basis Points Kamala Harris's emergence as the likely Democratic nominee since Biden bowed out of the race has put the focus on the vice president's policy views and governing style. Given her brief time in the Senate and early end to her presidential bid, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon and others have said they have known little about her positions, which has opened her up to Republicans casting her as a radical liberal over the last four years. - Tarini Parti and Alexander Saeedy Born in a midcentury, postwar America brimming with promise, many of the youngest boomers are still sporting financial bruises from the 2007-09 recession and the nation's steady shift away from guaranteed pensions. For millions of younger boomers, who could live at least two more decades, a lost job or expensive medical problem could upend their stability while ramping up pressure on younger generations. - Jon Kamp, Scott Calvert and Paul Overberg The Washington, D.C., office market is struggling with rising foreclosures, plunging values and its highest vacancy rate ever. The outlook looks grim whether Donald Trump or President Biden's Democratic Party successor is in the White House next year. The district's office market is poised to get worse regardless of the outcome of the election. - Peter Grant U.S. retailers are pulling forward overseas orders to get ahead of deepening shipping disruptions, rising freight rates and looming geopolitical concerns. Import containers have been landing at American seaports in far bigger numbers than usual since the late spring, marking an early start to the annual peak shipping season leading into the fall. It also marks a big bet for importers who risk being stuck with excess inventories if consumers don't pick up their spending. - Paul Berger Ukraine struck a deal with creditors that could save it more than $11 billion over the next three years, a boost for the war-torn country as it scrambles to keep funding the war with Russia. The preliminary deal, unveiled Monday, came after months of negotiations with a committee representing Western bondholders such as BlackRock and Pimco. - Alexander Saeedy and Chelsey Dulaney Chinese leader Xi Jinping and other top Communist Party officials used 22,000 characters in laying out a blueprint for reviving the country's flagging economy in the coming years and signaling an intention to rev up growth in the coming months. On some of the thorniest issues, however, the document had little new to say-fueling concern among some economists about the country's longer-term prospects. - Rebecca Feng For decades, American and Chinese scientists collaborated on supercomputers, tennis-court-size machines essential to improving AI, developing vaccines and predicting hurricanes. But Chinese scientists have become more secretive as the U.S. has tried to hinder China's technological progress, and they have stopped participating altogether in a prominent international supercomputing forum. - Stu Woo Chip politics are no longer just the chip industry's problem. Investors got a sharp reminder last week of just how politicized the semiconductor industry has become-especially ahead of a U.S. presidential election. - Dan Gallagher About Us WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ's global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to [hardika.singh@wsj.com]. This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
[2]
Trump vs. Harris: First Poll Post-Biden Exit Shows Majority Approval; Potential Impact On Trump's Chances; US Cybersecurity Official Criticizes Crowdstrike's Faulty Microsoft Windows Update - Top Headlines Today While US Slept
Crypto Bitcoin Dominates, Ethereum Rebounds: Here's How Much Crypto Funds Raked In Last Week Trump-Themed MAGA Coin Plunges 8% As Joe Biden Quits Presidential Race Bitcoin, Ethereum Hold Steady, Dogecoin Spikes As Biden Bows Out Of Presidential Race: King Crypto Might Have A Chance To Reclaim $71.5K, Forecasts Analyst US Politics President Biden's Exit Followed Nearly $80M In Wagers On Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket Trump Vs. Harris: First Poll After Biden's Exit Shows Majority Approve Of Decision, But Here's How It Might Affect Ex-President's Chances Mohamed El-Erian On Biden's Withdrawal From Presidential Race: 'There Is Genuine Uncertainty On How Markets Will - And Should- React To The News' Democrats Have 'Huge Opportunity' To Win Back Chunk Of Crypto Vote After Biden's Exit From 2024 Race, Legal Expert Urges New Nominee To Take These Steps Bill Ackman Says People Dismiss 'Conspiracy Theories' Too Quickly -- Cites Hunter Biden Laptop As An Example That 'Turned Out To Be True' Bitcoin Critic Elizabeth Warren Backs Kamala Harris For Presidency After Biden Withdraws From The Race: 'She's Ready To Step Up' Larry Summers: Biden Quitting Shifts Focus To Trump's 'Dishonesty, Demagoguery, And Dangerousness' -- Warns Ex-President's Policies Will 'Undermine Economic Security Of Tens Of Millions' Robert Kennedy Jr. Has Advice For Democrats If They Want To Keep Trump Out Of Office After Biden Drops Out: 'Would Only Happen If...' Trump Disassociates Himself From 'Extreme' Project 2025 At Michigan Rally: 'I Don't Know What The Hell It Is' US MarketsÂÂÂÂÂÂÂÂ Wall Street Set To Rebound Amid Hopes Of Strong Earnings: 'Political Uncertainty' Caused By Biden Stepping Down Could Be 'Catalyst For Market Volatility,' Says Analyst Biden Quitting 2024 Race Could Move The Stock Market: Key Factors To Watch On Monday S&P 500 Logs Worst Weekly Decline Since April; Investor Optimism Falls Further Tech Elon Musk Pushes Back Optimus Timeline, Says Tesla's Humanoid Robot Will 'Hopefully' Be Available For Other Companies By 2026 This CrowdStrike Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Monday What's Going On With AI Chip Stocks Nvidia, AMD And Taiwan Semi On Monday? What's Going On With Alibaba And Other Chinese Stocks On Monday? Nvidia, Apple Supplier TSMC And Other US-Listed Taiwan Stocks Trading Lower In Pre-Market After Biden Quits Presidential Race Microsoft Blames European Commission Agreement As Reason It Can't Secure Windows Like Apple Secures MacOS After CrowdStrike Outage Nvidia Reportedly Developing A New Version Of Its Flagship AI Chip For Chinese Market Amid US Export Restrictions Crowdstrike's Faulty Microsoft Windows Update Gets Slammed By US Cybersecurity Official: 'Was A Huge Deal...' Crowdstrike Update For Microsoft Windows Continues To Cause Chaos, Thousands of US Flights Canceled For Third Straight Day Electric Vehicle Tesla CEO Elon Musk Clarifies He Has 'Literally Zero' Business Interests In Russia, Slams Podcast Host Sam Harris: 'Pompous Hypocrite...' Tesla FSD To Allow Users To Wear Sunglasses Starting With Version 12.5, Elon Musk Tells Quake Video Game Developer: 'Tesla Has Done So Much...' Tesla Confirms It Aims To Start Selling Cybertruck In Canada This Year: Pre-Orders Open For $150 Consumer Goodyear Sells OTR Tire Business To Yokohama For $905M: Details Xpeng And Volkswagen Partner For New Project House Focused On EV Architecture Communication LinkedIn Deploys AI And Games To Compete with Meta and TikTok Trump Media & Technology (DJT) Stock Rises In Premarket On Monday: What's Going On Industrial Honeywell Gears Up United Airlines' New 737 MAX with Cutting-Edge Avionics: Details GE Aerospace Invests In Supercomputing Talent: Plans To Hire 900 Engineers Ryanair Shares Plummet on Q1 Miss: Traffic Up, Fares Down & More Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook Predicts Soaring Demand: 44,000 New Airplanes Needed By 2043 General Elon Musk May Have Endorsed Trump, But Tesla Would Have Done 'Even Worse' Without Biden's $7.5K EV Tax Credit, Says Fund Manager Energy Tellurian Shares Soar on $1.2B Woodside Deal: Details Image via Shutterstock Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
[3]
Futures rise after Biden pulls out of presidential race
(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.) July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures climbed on Monday as investors assessed the chances of a win by candidate Donald Trump in the November elections after President Joe Biden opted out of the race. Biden announced he was exiting the race on Sunday, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic ticket. Megacap stocks were up premarket, with Meta Platforms , Alphabet and Apple up between 0.5% and 0.8%, boosting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures. At 4:17 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 102.5 points, or 0.52%. Shares of Trump-linked stocks such as Trump Media & Technology Group and software firm Phunware rose 2.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Most U.S. Treasury yields, including the 10-year one , were down as Biden ended his reelection campaign after pressure from fellow Democrats who lost faith in his mental acuity and ability to beat Trump. Biden's exit from the presidential race could prompt investors to unwind trades betting that a Republican victory would increase U.S. fiscal and inflationary pressures, while some analysts said markets could benefit from an increased chance of divided government under the next administration. "Donald Trump is still the solid favorite to win the presidential election, but betting markets suggest he has a slightly lower probability of beating Harris rather than Biden," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. "Harris will have a real chance to sell herself to the American public in the second presidential debate, currently scheduled for Sept. 10, although the Trump campaign could withdraw, not wanting to go toe-to-toe with the ex-attorney." Investors are bracing for high volatility this week, with a deluge of quarterly earnings on deck, including from two of the so-called Magnificent Seven - Google parent Alphabet and Tesla - to gauge the sustainability of the recent run-up in the top-tier high-momentum stocks. Focus will also be on major data throughout the week including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, durable goods and second-quarter GDP for clues on the U.S. central bank's monetary policy trajectory. Traders have broadly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by September and two cuts by the year-end, as per LSEG and CME's FedWatch data. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 logged their steepest weekly declines since mid-April, with investors rotating out of expensive tech stocks to underperforming areas in the market, helping the small-cap Russell 2000 index post its second straight weekly gain. Among other single movers, Nvidia rose 1.3% after Reuters reported the AI chip leader is working on a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that would be compatible with current U.S. export controls. Shares of Bank of America lost 1.5% after Berkshire Hathaway sold about 33.9 million shares of the lender for around $1.48 billion over multiple transactions last week. (Reporting by Shubham Batra and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
[4]
Futures gain as investors assess U.S. election after Biden withdrawal
(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.) * Megacaps, Trump-linked stocks rise in premarket trading * CrowdStrike slips after Friday's global cyber outage * Nvidia jumps on report of new AI chip for China market July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday as investors weighed the odds of a second term for Republican nominee Donald Trump in the November presidential election after President Joe Biden bowed out of the race and endorsed Kamala Harris's candidature. Biden announced his withdrawal on Sunday and said he supported Vice President Harris for the Democratic ticket. Megacap stocks rose in premarket trading as investors assessed the likelihood of another Trump White House. Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Apple gained between 0.8% and 1.3%. At 7:08 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 70 points, or 0.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 29 points, or 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 165 points, or 0.84%. Shares of Trump-linked stocks such as Trump Media & Technology Group and software firm Phunware edged 0.6% and 0.2% higher, respectively. Biden's exit could prompt investors to unwind trades betting that a Republican victory would increase U.S. fiscal and inflationary pressures, while some analysts said markets could benefit from an increased chance of a divided government under the next administration. "What had originally been looking to be a subdued start to a week dominated by corporate earnings, US Q2 advance GDP and monthly PCE deflators has been turned on its head," said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services International. Most U.S. Treasury yields including the benchmark 10-year bond yield, slipped after Biden's announcement, while Wall Street's "fear gauge" traded at three-month highs. The uncertainty over the Democratic ticket is the latest upheaval in the election cycle and comes as investors brace for a bevy of key quarterly earnings, including from two of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies - Google parent Alphabet and Tesla. The question of whether the recent rally in top-tier high-momentum stocks is tenable is on everyone's minds. Focus will also turn to crucial data throughout the week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - durable goods and second-quarter GDP for insight into the U.S. central bank's monetary policy trajectory. The combination of results and economic data will be a key test for Wall Street after a three-session sell-off that saw the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 logging their steepest weekly declines since mid-April on Friday. It will also test whether a rotation out of expensive tech stocks to underperforming sectors will continue. Futures tracking the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.5% after the index posted its second straight weekly gain. Traders have broadly priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by September and two cuts by the year-end, according to LSEG and CME's FedWatch data. Among single movers, Nvidia rose 1.8% after Reuters reported the AI chip leader was working on a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that would be compliant with current U.S. export controls. Verizon Communications fell 2.5% after the company reported revenue below analysts' expectations, while Truist Financial lost 1.7% after reporting a 33% drop in second-quarter profit. Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike lost 3.5% after a software update from the company sparked a global tech outage on Friday that grounded flights, forced broadcasters off air and left customers without access to essential services. (Reporting by Shubham Batra Ankika Biswas and Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Pooja Desai)
[5]
Stock Market Game Plan For Investors After Biden Withdraws - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Game Plan Please click here for an enlarged chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ. Note the following: In the wake of Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the presumptive nominee, investors need a game plan. The chart shows that Nasdaq 100 has broken a trendline that has been in place since the April pullback. The chart shows that the stock market is moving higher in the early trade on the belief that Harris will be friendlier to big tech compared to Biden. RSI on the chart shows the stock market is oversold. This makes it easy for Harris supporters to run up the market. It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job is to help our members extract the maximum amount of money out of the markets with the least possible risk. Opinions are a dime a dozen. Here are the key points based on the rigorous analysis built on hard data: The probability of Trump becoming the next president is 60%. This is 5% lower than it was before Biden withdrew. Assuming Harris is the eventual Democratic nominee, the probability of Harris becoming the next president is 40%. The probability of a red sweep has fallen from 65% to 55%. There is excitement about Harris, and the news cycle has shifted from Trump to Harris. Expect this excitement to be temporary unless someone else jumps into the race on the Democratic side. Bonds are being bought on the falling probability of a Trump election. The market believes that Trump's policies will be more inflationary than Harris's. Investors need to remember that not much is known about Harris's policies. The presumption is that she will continue with Biden's policies with the following exceptions: She will be friendlier to big tech. She will be more anti-oil and anti-gas. She will try to borrow and spend more than Biden. She will be bitcoin friendly. The dollar is slightly weaker on expectations that Harris will borrow more than Biden. Gold is seeing some selling on expectations that a Harris administration will be more predictable than Trump. Bitcoin ran up Friday on expectations that Trump will be bitcoin friendly. Bitcoin is holding its gains on the expectation that, unlike Biden, Harris will be bitcoin friendly. In the early trade in the stock market, the Trump trade is on pause, and the Harris trade is seeing buying. In The Arora Report analysis, investors should consider the Trump trade as the main trend and the Harris trade as a temporary counter trend. This means buying the Trump trade on dips and selling or taking profits on rallies due to the Harris trade. Magnificent Seven Money Flows In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc AAPL, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc META, Microsoft Corp MSFT, NVIDIA Corp NVDA, and Tesla Inc TSLA. In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ. Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLD. The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV. The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO. Bitcoin Bitcoin BTC/USD continues to levitate as both Trump and Harris are seen as bitcoin friendly. Protection Band And What To Do Now It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time. You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges. A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling. It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market. Traditional 60/40 Portfolio Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time. Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time. The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter. This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
[6]
US stock futures rise as Biden drops presidential bid; major earnings loom By Investing.com
Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures rose in evening deals on Sunday after President Joe Biden abruptly withdrew his bid for reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. S&P 500 Futures rose 0.3% to 5,572.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.6% to 19,832.50 points by 19:29 ET (23:29 GMT). Dow Jones Futures rose 0.2% to 40,640.0 points. Futures rose with Wall Street indexes nursing bruising losses last week, as growing expectations of interest rate cuts saw investors rotate out of heavyweight technology stocks and into more economically-sensitive sectors. Focus this week is on key second-quarter earnings from the tech sector, which are expected to offer more cues on the main drivers of a technology rally this year, specifically artificial intelligence. The so-called "Trump Trade" was also in play, as investors positioned for more protectionist policies and trade tariffs in the event of a Trump presidency. Biden's withdrawal comes amid growing calls from members and donors of his party for him to step down, amid concerns over his mental health and that he may not be able to effectively run against Trump. Biden said he will focus on serving his full term until January 2025. But while the 46th president endorsed Harris as his successor, she still needs to be officially nominated by the Democratic party with a vote due in August. Trump was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate last week. CBS polling data from last week showed Trump polling better than Biden, especially in the wake of a failed assassination attempt on the former president. It also showed Trump had a slight edge over Harris. "Trump's stated policies include broad-based import tariffs, immigration limits and a pullback from treaty commitments. As Trump's polling results have lifted, markets have favoured trades anticipat(ing) more trade barriers and possibly higher inflation," ANZ analysts wrote in a note. "Some polls have Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, and the Democrats will be hoping the next polls feature a Harris-driven bump." Expectations of a Trump presidency also drove a rotation into stocks more likely to benefit from tighter U.S. trade policies and friendlier business conditions within the country. This mass rotation out of technology sparked deep losses on Wall Street. Focus will be squarely on how the two plan to further incorporate artificial intelligence into their products, while Tesla will also be watched as it grapples with slowing sales.
[7]
Markets today: U.S. futures rise as traders look beyond Biden exit
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. tech stocks were poised to rebound from their worst week since April as investors looked beyond Joe Biden ending his presidential reelection campaign and mainly focused on earnings. Market reaction to Biden's decision to quit the race and endorse Kamala Harris has so far been fairly muted, with a Bloomberg gauge of dollar strength slipping 0.1 per cent, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points. Democrats face the task of uniting around a new nominee just weeks before their convention, and must rapidly make up ground against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. Investors have been wagering on Trump's return to the White House for weeks, trimming holdings of long-term U.S. bonds and buying Bitcoin, among other things. Now, they're considering whether the "Trump Trade" is still on. The uncertainty may translate into volatility for markets, though for now, much attention is on earnings and the outlook for monetary policy. "We are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on the outcome of the election," said Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson. "While markets have been digesting the rising odds of a Trump win, cyclical upside from here will likely be dependent on growth." S&P futures contracts climbed 0.5 per cent, while rising Nasdaq 100 futures signaled a partial recovery from last week's four per cent slump. Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose more than one per cent, snapping a five-day losing streak. Investors have their hands full dealing with major earnings this week. Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will be the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report on Tuesday. Analysts will likely press Elon Musk's electric-vehicle giant on the progress of its plans for robotaxis. And investors will delve into the details of Google's parent revenue boost from artificial intelligence. "It's a good reporting season so far, but you have to wonder what are the catalysts for the market to keep on rising further?" said Andrew Pease, global head of investment strategy at Russell Investments Ltd. "A lot of the hope is that we get this rotation away from the Mag Seven to the S&P 493 and the equal-weighted index starts to catch up with the cap-weighted. Asymmetry is still the watchword right now." Strategists at Morgan Stanley said companies in Europe have made a positive start to the second-quarter reporting season, with 29 per cent beating profit expectations. Ryanair Holdings Plc failed to boost that track record Monday, however, falling as much as 16 per cent after the Irish budget carrier cut its outlook for ticket prices in the crucial summer travel period. Rivals EasyJet Plc and IAG SA also fell. In U.S. premarket trading, CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fell as much as 4.4 per cent as Guggenheim Securities cut the rating on the stock to neutral from buy, after a faulty software update from the cybersecurity firm affected 8.5 million devices that rely on Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system. In Asia, stocks continued to be dragged lower by a weak tech sector. Chinese bonds were a highlight, gaining after the central bank cut a policy interest rate. The country's stocks fell, as investors continued to express disappointment at a lack of strong stimulus measures from a recent major Communist Party meeting. Elsewhere this week, traders will be focused on economic activity data in Europe, U.S. second-quarter growth and a Bank of Canada rate decision. This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
[8]
Dollar edges lower, Asian stocks slip following Biden's election exit
Biden's endorsement of Harris and China's central bank rate cut caused the dollar to slip and Asian stocks to fall. The US dollar fell 0.2%, the Mexican peso climbed. Stocks in Japan and South Korea dropped. PBOC's reverse repo rate was lowered to 1.7%. Oil and gold prices increased. Focus points include Europe's economic data, US growth, and corporate earnings.The dollar slipped and Asian stocks fell after Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. China's central bank cut a key short-term interest rate. A Bloomberg gauge of the US currency's strength fell 0.2% Monday after the US President bowed to pressure from the Democrats and pulled out of the November election race, while the Mexican peso climbed. US stock futures gained. Stocks opened lower in Japan and South Korea, adding to weakness in Australia. Futures for Hong Kong equities pointed to a steady open. The People's Bank of China said it will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.7% from 1.8%, in a move that supports the economy and marks a step toward making the rate the new policy benchmark. Investors have mulled for weeks a greater prospect Trump will win the November election following Biden's weak debate performance, only for bets on a Trump win to accelerate last week following an assassination attempt on the former president. The dollar rose for the first time in three weeks, while emerging market assets suffered amid fears of higher trade tariffs, increased US-China tensions and looser US fiscal policy. The question for investors is whether to stick with such trades now that Biden has dropped his bid for reelection. Markets may be jumpy as traders wait to see if Harris secures her party's nomination and weigh if she can then gather enough momentum to challenge Trump's lead in the polls. "The knee-jerk reaction would be to say that this negative for the US dollar, however it's too soon to say," said Olga Yangol, head of EM research and strategy at Credit Agricole. "A lot will depend on Harris's initial appearances and choice of a running mate and how the swing state polls react." In commodities, oil and gold rose in early trading Monday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% on Friday to cap its worst week since April, while the Nasdaq 100 slumped about 1%. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller firms fell 0.6%. Tech shares fell ahead of earnings reports this week, while CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., the firm behind a massive IT failure that grounded flights and disrupted corporations around the world, slumped as much as 15% before paring losses. Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will be the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report earnings on Tuesday. Analysts will likely press Elon Musk's electric-vehicle giant on the progress of its plans for robotaxis. And investors will delve into the details of Google's parent revenue boost from artificial intelligence. "The S&P 500 has seen a solid flush out of extended and concentrated positioning in some incredibly well-owned areas of the market," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. With volatility expected in Tesla, Alphabet and IBM shares over their earnings, "I wouldn't be stepping in to buy the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 just yet," he wrote in a note. China's one- and five-year loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged later Monday as the nation's central bank shrugs off anemic second-quarter growth. Instead, President Xi Jinping at the weekend unveiled sweeping plans to bolster the finances of China's indebted local governments as the ruling Communist Party announced its long-term blueprint for the world's second-largest economy. Those are centered around shifting more revenue from the central to local coffers, such as by allowing regional governments to receive a larger share of consumption tax. "Like most documents of this kind, it did not say how Chinese leaders intended to reach those goals, many of which would require policies that are contradictory in nature," said Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon. "The contradiction of China growth vs. stability are hanging over APAC markets and flows, still leaving Chinese yuan and commodities a key focus." Elsewhere this week, traders will be focused on economic activity data in Europe, US second quarter growth and a slew of corporate earnings. The Bank of Canada will give a rate decision while the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation is also due.
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President Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race has thrust Vice President Kamala Harris into the spotlight, reshaping the political arena and causing ripples in the financial markets. This development has sparked discussions about Harris's potential candidacy and its implications for the upcoming election.
In a surprising turn of events, President Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, citing concerns about his age and the need for a new generation of leadership 1. This decision has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, leaving many to speculate about the future of the Democratic Party and its potential candidates.
With Biden's exit, Vice President Kamala Harris has been thrust into the forefront of the political arena. As the most prominent figure in the Democratic Party after Biden, Harris now faces the challenge of navigating a complex political environment 1. Her potential candidacy has become a topic of intense discussion, with analysts examining her ability to unite the party and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.
The financial markets have responded to this political shift with cautious optimism. Futures rose following Biden's announcement, indicating that investors are reassessing their strategies in light of the changing political landscape 3. The S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures gained 0.3%, suggesting a positive market sentiment 4.
Early polls conducted after Biden's withdrawal have provided intriguing insights into the potential matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris. A recent survey showed Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points in a hypothetical general election scenario 2. This early data has sparked discussions about the competitiveness of the race and the challenges that lie ahead for both candidates.
As the political landscape evolves, investors are advised to reassess their portfolios and consider the potential impacts on various market sectors. Analysts suggest that healthcare, renewable energy, and infrastructure sectors could see significant changes depending on the election outcome 5. Additionally, the technology sector and regulatory environment may face shifts based on the policies proposed by the candidates.
Vice President Harris now faces the task of defining her campaign strategy and addressing key issues that resonate with voters. Her ability to articulate a clear vision for the country, handle foreign policy challenges, and address economic concerns will be crucial in gaining support from both the Democratic base and independent voters 1.
As the 2024 election cycle unfolds, political analysts and market observers will be closely watching the developments in this new political landscape. The coming months will likely see intense campaigning, policy debates, and further market reactions as voters and investors alike grapple with the implications of this significant shift in American politics.
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Recent statements by former President Trump about Taiwan and potential trade policies under a second Trump administration have caused ripples in the semiconductor and AI markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reaches new highs amidst continued ETF inflows.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches a new all-time high, driven by strong tech earnings and positive economic indicators. Investors eagerly await reports from major companies and key economic data releases.
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AI-related stocks and ETFs are experiencing a surge, driven by technological progress and potential political shifts. The market is reacting to both current innovations and speculations about future policies.
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Bitcoin reaches a new high of $63,000 as U.S. institutional investors show increased interest. The cryptocurrency market experiences volatility due to political events, including a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump.
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As the U.S. faces increasing trade risks and political uncertainty, Wall Street analysts assess potential winners and losers. Meanwhile, markets hit new highs, driven by factors beyond the upcoming presidential election.
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