Global Digital Evolution Index Reveals Post-Pandemic Slowdown and AI's Impact on Digital Economies

New global index defines what makes digital economies resilient and inclusive

Digital Planet, published by The Fletcher School at Tufts University, has unveiled the Digital Evolution Index charting the progress 125 economies around the world have made in advancing their digital economies, developing artificial intelligence (AI), and integrating connectivity into the lives of billions. This latest edition of the index illustrates global digital development, provides insights into the key factors driving change and momentum, and explores the implications for economies grappling with the aftermath of a global pandemic, while contemplating a future shaped by AI. The emerging post-pandemic landscape of the digital planet is not characterized by rapid digital transformation but rather by slowing growth. This global digital deceleration is particularly noteworthy in measures of demand and institutions. Gender and class digital inclusion metrics, in particular, appear to be plateauing. Since 2019, institutions' ability to regulate technological innovation, foster trust, and achieve bureaucratic efficiency has stagnated. Notably, AI is creating an amplification effect, accelerating existing digital advantages and reinforcing the dominance of digitally advanced economies. This suggests a potential "winner-takes-most, if not all," scenario in the relationship between AI and digital development. As AI increasingly drives innovation and competitiveness, countries that fall behind in AI investment and adoption may find it increasingly challenging to close the gap. Other key findings include: "The Digital Evolution Index reveals a crucial inflection point in the global digital landscape. As digital technologies account for an increasingly significant portion of the overall economy, the post-pandemic digital deceleration we are witnessing isn't merely a temporary slowdown but signals the beginning of a fundamental restructuring of digital economies worldwide," said Bhaskar Chakravorti, Chair of Digital Planet and Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School. "As AI amplifies existing advantages and creates what could become a 'winner-take-most' scenario, we are seeing new challenges emerge in the form of potential tariffs and growing policy debates around taxing digital services. This comes at a critical time when the digital component of economies is expanding rapidly. "Leaders must navigate these complex trade tensions while ensuring their increasingly digital-dependent economies can harness AI's transformative potential. The diverse models we are observing across regions offer valuable lessons in building resilient digital economies amid these evolving global pressures." A global outlook on digital evolution Digital Evolution captures an economy's historical momentum from the physical past to the digital present. Mapping over 92% of the world's population and drawing on 15 years of data, Digital Evolution measures 184 indicators in 125 economies across four key pillars: institutional environment, demand conditions, supply conditions, and the capacity for innovation and change. These are segmented into four categories:

New Global Index Defines What Makes Digital Economies Resilient and Inclusive | Newswise

Newswise -- Digital Planet, published by The Fletcher School at Tufts University has unveiled the Digital Evolution Index, charting the progress of 125 economies around the world have made in advancing their digital economies, developing artificial intelligence (AI), and integrating connectivity into the lives of billions. This latest edition of the index, developed in collaboration with Mastercard, illustrates global digital development, provides insights into the key factors driving change and momentum, and explores the implications for economies grappling with the aftermath of a global pandemic, while contemplating a future shaped by AI. The emerging post-pandemic landscape of the digital planet is not characterized by rapid digital transformation but rather by slowing growth. This global digital deceleration is particularly noteworthy in measures of demand and institutions. Gender and class digital inclusion metrics, in particular, appear to be plateauing. Since 2019, institutions' ability to regulate technological innovation, foster trust, and achieve bureaucratic efficiency has stagnated. Notably, AI is creating an amplification effect, accelerating existing digital advantages and reinforcing the dominance of digitally advanced economies. This suggests a potential "winner-takes-most, if not all," scenario in the relationship between AI and digital development. As AI increasingly drives innovation and competitiveness, countries that fall behind in AI investment and adoption may find it increasingly challenging to close the gap. Other key findings include: Progress to Digital Parity: Digital inclusion has slowed globally, with Europe and Central Asia leading in gender digital inclusion, while Africa and the Middle East lag despite making strides. Low-income countries face challenges due to economic and social factors, with the rural-urban digital divide remaining especially persistent across most regions. The Resilience of Digital Entrepôts: Small nations serving as digital hubs have demonstrated remarkable resilience during and after the pandemic by emphasizing agility, openness, and support for innovation. These digital entrepôts now serve as potential models for cross-border cooperation in the AI era. China's Mobile-First Ascension: China has become the first primarily mobile-driven economy to reach the Stand Out Zone, despite having lower PC/laptop ownership compared to its peers. Its success with mobile super apps across various income groups presents an aspirational model for other mobile-first developing nations such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Three-Speed Digital Transformation: Europe's digital landscape has evolved into three distinct clusters (Established, Surging, and Emerging economies), creating an interdependent ecosystem despite varying development rates. This three-speed model offers diverse pathways to digital advancement and creates natural policy laboratories, with Europe's digital future reliant on effective cross-cluster collaboration. "The Digital Evolution Index reveals a crucial inflection point in the global digital landscape. As digital technologies account for an increasingly significant portion of the overall economy, the post-pandemic digital deceleration we are witnessing isn't merely a temporary slowdown but signals the beginning of a fundamental restructuring of digital economies worldwide," said Bhaskar Chakravorti, Chair of Digital Planet and Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School. "As AI amplifies existing advantages and creates what could become a 'winner-take-most' scenario, we are seeing new challenges emerge in the form of potential tariffs and growing policy debates around taxing digital services. This comes at a critical time when the digital component of economies is expanding rapidly. Leaders must navigate these complex trade tensions while ensuring their increasingly digital-dependent economies can harness AI's transformative potential. The diverse models we are observing across regions offer valuable lessons in building resilient digital economies amid these evolving global pressures." A Global Outlook on Digital Evolution Digital Evolution captures an economy's historical momentum from the physical past to the digital present. Mapping over 92% of the world's population and drawing on 15 years of data, Digital Evolution measures 184 indicators in 125 economies across four key pillars: institutional environment, demand conditions, supply conditions, and the capacity for innovation and change. These are segmented into four categories: The Digital Evolution Index, researched and authored by The Fletcher School faculty and students with the support of Mastercard, provides world-leading, state-of-play reporting on the progress that countries have made in advancing their digital economies. About Digital Planet Digital Planet, an interdisciplinary research initiative of The Fletcher School's Institute for Business in the Global Context, is dedicated to understanding the impact of digital innovations on the world and providing actionable insights for policymakers, businesses, investors, and innovators.