Trump approves Nvidia H200 exports to China with 25% revenue cut, sparking national security debate

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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The US government has approved Nvidia's sale of H200 AI chips to China, with the US taking a 25% cut of sales. The decision reverses previous AI chip export curbs and has sparked intense debate among experts and lawmakers who warn it could help China close the gap in the AI race, while supporters argue controlled access maintains US technological superiority.

Trump Reverses Course on Nvidia H200 Exports to China

President Donald Trump has authorized the sale of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China, marking a significant shift in US chip policy that has ignited fierce debate over national security concerns and America's technological edge. The Department of Commerce will allow Nvidia to ship H200 chips to approved Chinese customers, with the US government taking a 25% cut of sales to support American jobs and manufacturing

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. The decision reverses AI chip export curbs that had effectively locked China out of accessing advanced US semiconductor technology.

Source: New York Post

Source: New York Post

The H200, based on Nvidia's previous-generation Hopper design with access to 141GB of HBM3E memory, is six times more powerful than the H20 chip currently available in China but about 10 times less powerful than Nvidia's cutting-edge Blackwell chip, which remains restricted

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. Trump emphasized that Nvidia's Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips are not part of this deal, with the same approach set to apply to AMD, Intel, and other American companies

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Source: Japan Times

Source: Japan Times

Experts Warn of Handing Away US Advantage

The decision has drawn sharp criticism from national security experts who argue it undermines America's position in the AI race. Jake Sullivan, former Biden-era national security advisor who helped design previous export restrictions, called Trump's move "nuts," telling The New York Times that "China's main problem is they don't have enough advanced computing capability." Sullivan warned that "we are literally handing away our advantage" and that "China's leaders can't believe their luck"

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The timing appears particularly critical given that Huawei, China's leading AI chip maker, is estimated to be about two years behind Nvidia's technology. By approving Nvidia H200 exports, critics argue Trump may unwittingly help Chinese chip makers catch up to Nvidia's capabilities

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. Congressional lawmakers have also expressed alarm, with Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and Democratic Senator Chris Coons introducing the Secure and Feasible Exports Act (SAFE) Chips Act on December 4, which would block advanced AI chip exports to China for 30 months

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The Strategic Rationale Behind Controlled Access to Advanced Chips

Trump was reportedly persuaded by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and his "AI czar" David Sacks that restricting sales would only ensure Chinese chip makers captured the entire domestic market, allowing firms like Huawei to shore up revenue for R&D

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. The counter-argument centers on keeping China's AI industry dependent on US chips while generating substantial revenue—potentially $10-15 billion annually according to Bloomberg Intelligence—that Nvidia could reinvest into maintaining its technological lead

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Source: ET

Source: ET

Under the new framework, each H200 must be manufactured by TSMC, shipped to the US for inspection, and then re-exported to China, with a 25% import duty collected at the US checkpoint

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. This approach represents a shift from outright denial to managed access, with officials concluding that permitting H200 sales while keeping newer architectures restricted could slow China's push for chip independence without surrendering the US technological lead

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China's Response and Market Dynamics

Chinese regulators have begun internal reviews following the announcement, with officials from the National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting with major tech companies including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent to assess projected demand for H200 GPUs

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. Sources indicate regulators may impose import limits tied to domestic procurement, requiring companies to demonstrate investment in Chinese AI accelerators from Huawei's Ascend or Cambricon's Siyuan series

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The situation is complicated by China's September ban, when the Cyberspace Administration of China prohibited domestic companies from buying Nvidia's chips in favor of supporting domestic chip manufacturing

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. However, the H200's substantial performance advantage—reportedly double the speed of Chinese-produced hardware—and access to the CUDA ecosystem with its AI design and development tools may prove irresistible

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. Zhang Yuchun, a general manager at SuperCloud, told Reuters that "the training of leading Chinese AI models still relies on Nvidia cards," expecting major Chinese tech companies to purchase H200 GPUs "in a low key manner"

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Supply Constraints and Long-Term Implications

Nvidia's ability to meet Chinese demand may be limited, as the company has deprioritized H200 manufacturing to focus on ramping production of Blackwell-class B100 and B200 GPUs while preparing its Rubin successor

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. The supply chain reality suggests this policy shift may generate less revenue than the $10-15 billion annual estimate, potentially undermining the economic rationale for the decision.

The move ends a freeze that led to Nvidia losing its entire Chinese market share and disrupted development plans for large-scale AI models in the region

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. Yet the decision's impact on trade tensions and the broader semiconductor supply chain remains uncertain. With on-again, off-again tariffs creating inconsistency and even spurring smuggling operations, the effectiveness of export restrictions in maintaining US technological superiority faces ongoing scrutiny

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. As China continues developing domestic alternatives while US policy oscillates between restriction and controlled access, the question of whether this approach preserves or erodes America's AI advantage will likely define the next phase of US-China tech competition.

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