Michael Burry Bets $1 Billion Against AI Bubble as Market Faces Reality Check

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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The investor famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash has placed massive bets against AI giants Nvidia and Palantir, warning of an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash. His positions have sparked heated responses from tech CEOs and renewed scrutiny over AI valuations.

The Big Short Investor Takes Aim at AI

Michael Burry, the legendary investor who predicted the 2008 housing market crash and inspired the Oscar-winning film "The Big Short," has set his sights on what he believes is the next major financial bubble: artificial intelligence

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. Recent regulatory filings reveal that Burry's hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, has taken massive put option positions against two AI darlings - $187.6 million against Nvidia and a staggering $912 million against Palantir

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Source: Futurism

Source: Futurism

These positions, totaling nearly $1.1 billion, represent approximately 80% of Burry's portfolio, signaling an extraordinary level of conviction in his bearish AI thesis

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. The timing of these disclosures has sent shockwaves through the market, with both Nvidia and Palantir experiencing significant declines following the news.

Market Reactions and Executive Pushback

The revelation of Burry's positions has triggered immediate market volatility, with approximately $500 billion wiped off technology stocks overnight

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. Nvidia shares dropped nearly 4% while Palantir plummeted 9% as investors reassessed their exposure to AI companies

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Palantir CEO Alex Karp responded with visible frustration to Burry's bet against his company. "I do think this behavior is egregious and I'm going to be dancing around when it's proven wrong," Karp told CNBC

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. He dismissed Burry's strategy as "bats*** crazy," arguing that shorting companies "making all the money" defies logic

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also defended the AI sector during a visit to Downing Street, telling Sky News that the industry is "long, long away" from a Big Short-style collapse. Huang emphasized that AI represents "the beginning of a very long build out" and highlighted the profitability driving continued infrastructure investment

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Source: Sky News

Source: Sky News

Historical Parallels and Warning Signs

Burry's skepticism extends beyond individual stock picks to broader structural concerns about the AI market. Days before his positions were disclosed, he posted cryptic messages on X (formerly Twitter), including charts comparing current U.S. tech capital expenditure growth to the 1999-2000 tech bubble

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. One particularly telling post featured declining year-over-year growth in cloud segments of Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

Experts have increasingly drawn parallels between today's AI boom and the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000, erasing approximately $5 trillion in market value

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. Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok noted that "the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s," while the Bank of England warned that current stock valuations are comparable to dot-com bubble peaks

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Source: Axios

Source: Axios

Circular Investment Concerns

A key element of Burry's thesis centers on what he views as problematic circular dealmaking within the AI industry. His social media posts highlighted a Bloomberg diagram showing Nvidia at the center of interconnected AI investments

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. This web of multibillion-dollar partnerships between tech giants with overlapping interests has created a system where companies essentially invest in each other, potentially inflating valuations artificially

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Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has also expressed concerns about AI sector valuations, suggesting the market is in "bubble territory" though he expects any correction to occur gradually rather than suddenly

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Track Record and Market Impact

Burry's reputation stems from his prescient 2005 bet against the U.S. mortgage market, which generated a 489% return when the housing bubble collapsed in 2008

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. However, his track record isn't perfect - he called for investors to "sell" in January 2023, only to admit he was "wrong" two months later as the Nasdaq 100 surged over 21%

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The influence of Burry's positions extends beyond institutional investors, as retail traders closely monitor and often copy his moves through Reddit threads and Discord chats

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. This retail following is particularly significant for Palantir, where individual investors own roughly half of all shares

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