MIT Study Reveals AI Could Replace 11.7% of US Workforce Worth $1.2 Trillion

Not a developer? AI could still take your job, MIT study finds

AI's disruptive potential will vary across industries and jobs. When considering the specter of human workers losing their jobs to AI, most people will probably think of software engineers and other tech industry professionals in coastal cities like San Francisco and New York. But what if those roles were just the tip of the iceberg? Also: AI could double the US economy's growth rate over the next decade, says Anthropic Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published a study last week indicating that, indeed, the scale and distribution of AI-fueled automation is likely to be much more extensive than previously believed. Titled "Project Iceberg," the study found that current AI systems can already replace 11.7% of the US workforce, representing around $1.2 trillion of the total value of the country's labor market (which is worth more than $9.4 trillion total, according to the report). The study was based on a large-scale computer simulation of the US labor force powered by the Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. The researchers leveraged what they call "Large Population Models" -- AI systems that can represent the interplay of 151 million workers across 3,000 US counties, and exhibiting 32,000 individual workplace skills. The goal was to develop a detailed map of the particular jobs and industries AI can handle. This also provided the researchers with a snapshot of the actual economic output that can be generated by AI -- a matter of supreme significance to tech investors and state officials amid ongoing tremors about a possible AI bubble that could send shockwaves throughout the national economy. Also: AI buzzwords are wrecking your job search - here's what really matters All told, the study found that existing AI systems can automate around 11.7% of the total US workforce, while current adoption strategies focus on a relatively tiny number of tech jobs, cumulatively comprising only around 2.2% of the workforce. "This fivefold exposure difference is geographically distributed nationwide rather than concentrated in coastal hubs, indicating that workforce preparation strategies based on visible technology-sector signals may substantially undercount transformation potential," the authors wrote. It won't just be tech jobs; across all 50 states, roles that blend rote data-processing functions with human interaction -- such as HR, finance, and office administration -- will feel the effects of AI automation, the authors added. Also: How to learn ChatGPT in under an hour using my favorite guides and videos - for free Just as most of the mass of an iceberg is hidden from view beneath the waterline, the study found that the majority of workplace tasks that will be automated by AI are being excluded from mainstream discourse, which thus far has mainly focused on tech jobs. This, in turn, is creating a warped picture of what government officials and company executives should expect in the coming years. The report also emphasizes a region-specific approach to preparing workers for the coming wave of automation. For most businesses across the country, it won't be enough to simply copy the AI strategies deployed by tech companies -- whether that's layoffs, upskilling, or a combination of the two. Rust Belt states like Ohio and Michigan, for example, have a modest tech presence but many white-collar manufacturing jobs compared to the rest of the country, including financial analysis and administrative coordination, according to the report. Also: 3 ways AI agents will make your job unrecognizable in the next few years Mainstream narratives about the potential for job disruption in these states (and others) are misleading, the researchers contend, in that they overemphasize the tech industry and overlook the many other industries that will be transformed by AI. "States with small technology sectors underestimate the scale of their exposure, leaving them vulnerable when adoption accelerates in white-collar work," the authors wrote. The MIT study is more than just a state-of-the-union report about AI's potential for job displacement -- it's also intended to be a virtual sandbox in which concerned parties can analyze how their particular regions will be affected. After all, no two states, counties, or cities have identical labor markets; each is characterized by a unique fabric of industries and jobs that support their individual economic spheres. Understanding if and how AI tools can support or replace the workers in specific locations, therefore, will be an important step toward understanding the technology's impact on a larger scale. Also: Is AI a career killer? Not if you have these skills, McKinsey research shows "By simulating how capabilities may spread under alternative scenarios, Project Iceberg enables policymakers and business leaders to identify exposure hotspots, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation," the researchers wrote in their report, which was also coauthored by officials from the North Carolina General Assembly and the Utah Office of AI Policy, and other organizations. In an AI "action plan" published last month, Tennessee state officials wrote that they would use Project Iceberg "to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of AI on the Tennessee workforce." Utah policymakers are planning to follow suit, according to CNBC. The MIT study arrives on the heels of other efforts to assess the fine-grained impacts of AI upon the labor market, zooming in from an industry-focused view to gauge the degree to which the technology can handle specific workplace tasks. A new study from AI startup Anthropic, for example, found that people who used the company's Claude chatbot for assistance completed various tasks about 80% faster on average than those who didn't. The company concluded that those findings could cause the growth rate of the US economy to double over the next 10 years. Also: AI may take jobs, but it makes starting a business easier than ever - here's how Research from job search site Indeed published in September, moreover, shows that AI is more likely to transform jobs rather than replace them wholesale. The big takeaway from these recent findings, including the new MIT study, is that AI-powered automation will not take place along neat and predictable lines; rather, it will impact individual roles in unique ways, depending on a multitude of factors. This obviously complicates the picture for employers, since it basically negates the utility of a one-size-fits-all approach to AI upskilling for employees. This varied ripple effect throughout the labor market, as market research firm Gartner predicted last month, will cause "jobs chaos" in the coming years as business leaders race to come to grips with the changes affected by the technology within their particular workplaces.

MIT simulation shows AI can replace 11.7% of U.S. workers worth $1.2 trillion in salaries -- Iceberg Index tool shows jobs are affected in every state across the country

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index to simulate the entire U.S. workforce and see how they are affected by artificial intelligence and the government's policies surrounding it. According to a report by CNBC, the study found that as much as 11.7% of the entire U.S. workforce could already be replaced by AI, which is valued to cost $1.2 trillion in salaries and benefits in various industries, not just in the technology sector. "Basically, we are creating a digital twin for the U.S. labor market," ORNL director Prasanna Balaprakash told CNBC. The Iceberg Index records each of the individual 151 million workers and marks them with their associated skills, tasks, occupation, and location. It then relates this data to over 32,000 skills and more than 900 jobs spread across 3,000 counties, and then checks which of these can be replaced by current AI technologies. This allowed the researchers to use the Iceberg Index to forecast the impact of AI before it happened in the real world. The group's findings reveal that the widespread tech industry layoffs, which hit over 100,000 this year, are just the beginning, as many more positions in human resources, logistics, finance, and administration are at risk of being replaced by automation. The Iceberg Index does not exactly tell us which jobs will be replaced and when that will happen, but it gives a clearer picture of what many experts and industry leaders have been warning about -- that AI will leave a lot of white-collar people behind. Nevertheless, the simulation tool is more than just a canary in the coal mine. Instead, it's actively being used by policymakers to help plan for the future and reduce the risks on society. MIT and ORNL have partnered with Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah, using their labor data to help build the index, and now those three states are using it for planning, checking to see how different policies will play out in the field. "One of the things that you can go down to is county-specific data to essentially say, within a certain census block, here are the skills that is currently happening now and then matching those skills with what are the likelihood of them being automated or augmented, and what could that mean in terms of the shifts in the state's GDP in the area, but also in employment," North Carolina state Sen. DeAndrea Salvador said. The Iceberg Index helps governments check to see how a certain policy would impact the workforce before it even commits time and resources. This way, it can reduce the waste of taxpayer dollars on ineffective policies, ensuring that their workforces and the general population are prepared for an AI-powered future.

MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce

People walk on the campus of Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts, April 15, 2025. Massachusetts Institute of Technology on Wednesday released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care and professional services. The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The index simulates how 151 million U.S. workers interact across the country and how they are affected by AI and corresponding policy. The Iceberg Index, which was announced earlier this year, offers a forward-looking view of how AI may reshape the labor market, not just in coastal tech hubs but across every state in the country. For lawmakers preparing billion-dollar reskilling and training investments, the index offers a detailed map of where disruption is forming down to the zip code. "Basically, we are creating a digital twin for the U.S. labor market," said Prasanna Balaprakash, ORNL director and co-leader of the research. ORNL is a Department of Energy research center in eastern Tennessee, home to the Frontier supercomputer, which powers many large-scale modeling efforts. The index runs population-level experiments, revealing how AI reshapes tasks, skills and labor flows long before those changes show up in the real economy, Balaprakash said. The index treats the 151 million workers as individual agents, each tagged with skills, tasks, occupation and location. It maps more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties, then measures where current AI systems can already perform those skills. What the researchers found is that the visible tip of the iceberg -- the layoffs and role shifts in tech, computing and information technology -- represents just 2.2% of total wage exposure, or about $211 billion. Beneath the surface lies the total exposure, the $1.2 trillion in wages, and that includes routine functions in human resources, logistics, finance, and office administration. Those are areas sometimes overlooked in automation forecasts. The index is not a prediction engine about exactly when or where jobs will be lost, the researchers said. Instead, it's meant to give a skills-centered snapshot of what today's AI systems can already do, and give policymakers a structured way to explore what-if scenarios before they commit real money and legislation. The researchers partnered with state governments to run proactive simulations. Tennessee, North Carolina and Utah helped validate the model using their own labor data and have begun building policy scenarios using the platform.

MIT study says agentic AI can already replace 11% of the US workforce

Serving tech enthusiasts for over 25 years. TechSpot means tech analysis and advice you can trust. The trillion-dollar question: Is AI technology actually going to disrupt the job market in the US and elsewhere in the world? While the jury is still out, new speculative exercises are trying to answer this most important question of our digitally-entrapped society. Teams from MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have developed a novel way to simulate AI's potential impact on US jobs. The effort produced the Iceberg Index, a digital twin of the national labor market. Researchers launched Project Iceberg earlier this year to simulate an AI-powered workforce alongside more than 151 million human workers. The "sandbox" exercise leverages ORNL's powerful supercomputer infrastructure, offering insights into AI technologies' potential to replace real-world jobs. According to CNBC, MIT's study of the simulation shows that a theoretical AI workforce could already cover 11.7 percent of the US labor market. In terms of wages, the impact could reach as much as $1.2 trillion across the finance, healthcare, and professional services industries. Project Iceberg evaluated 151 million US workers, considering their skills, tasks, and locations. The simulation mapped more than 32,000 professional skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties. Finally, researchers assessed the ability of AI agents to perform the same skills and professions. The team admits that the Iceberg Index cannot predict precisely how the workplace will evolve. However, it collaborated with state authorities to run a proactive simulation of agentic AI's impact. Local governments provided labor data to feed the model, and MIT researchers outlined the reskilling workers will likely need in the near future. The Iceberg Index can reportedly describe the replacement of human jobs in a specific county, down to individual census blocks. Furthermore, the project simulates the job market across all 50 US states, rather than focusing only on tech hubs in coastal regions, as traditional assessments have done. North Carolina state Senator DeAndrea Salvador closely collaborated with MIT on Project Iceberg and claims the simulation can test various scenarios for AI in the workforce. Researchers hope the study can proactively inform policymakers about the investments needed for training programs or infrastructure plans before committing actual funds. Currently, predictions about AI in the job market are about as reliable as the average chatbot interaction. Market data show that organizations have sometimes had to rehire former employees after attempting to replace them with AI. Meanwhile, a new bipartisan bill aims to require corporations to disclose which jobs are being replaced by AI.

MIT Report Claims 11.7% of U.S. Labor Can Be Replaced with Existing AI

Last week, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published a study claiming that AI is already capable of replacing 11.7% of existing U.S. labor. It’s certainly the kind of eye-popping study guaranteed to get a lot of eyes on researchers’ work at a time of shaky faith in AI, as stockholders might want some reassurance that their AI investments are going to pan out. The report on this research is called “The Iceberg Index: Measuring Skills-centered Exposure in the AI Economy,†but it also has its own dedicated page called “Project Iceberg†that lives on the MIT website. Compared to the research paper, the project page has a lot more emoji. Where the paper on the study comes across sort of like a warning about AI tech, the project page, which is headlined “Can AI Work with You?†feels more like an ad for AI, in part thanks to text like this: "AI is transforming work. We have spent years making AIs smartâ€"they can read, write, compose songs, shop for us. But what happens when they interact? When millions of smart AIs work together, intelligence emerges not from individual agents but from the protocols that coordinate them. Project Iceberg explores this new frontier: how AI agents coordinate with each other and humans at scale." The titular “Iceberg Index†comes from an AI simulation that uses what the paper called “Large Population Models†that apparently ran on processors housed at the federally funded Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is affiliated with the Department of Energy. Legislators and CEOS seem to be the target audience, and they’re meant to use Project Iceberg to “identify exposure hotspots, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation.†The Large Population Modelâ€"should we start shortening this to LPM?â€"claims to be able to digitally track the behavior of 151 million human workers “as autonomous agents†with 32,000 trackable “skills,†along with other factors like geography. The director of AI Programs at Oak Ridge explained the project to CNBC this way: “Basically, we are creating a digital twin for the U.S. labor market.†The overall finding, the researchers claim, is that current AI adoption accounts for 2.2% of “labor market wage value,†but that 11.7% of labor is exposedâ€"ostensibly replaceable based on the model’s understanding of what a human can currently do that an AI software widget can also do. It should be noted that humans in actual jobs constantly work outside their job descriptions, handle exceptional and non-routine situations, and areâ€"for nowâ€"uniquely capable of handling many of the social aspects of a given job. It’s not clear how the model accounts for this, although it does note that its findings are correlational not causal, and says “external factorsâ€"state investment, infrastructure, regulationâ€"mediate how capability translates to impact.†However, the paper says, “Policymakers cannot wait for causal evidence of disruption before preparing responses.†In other words, AI is too urgent to get hung up on the limitations of the study, according to the study.

More job cuts on the way? MIT study claims AI could currently replace 12% of total US jobs market

MIT's study is a great tool for policymakers to target specific populations A new MIT study indicates 11.7% of the US labor market could currently be replaced by artificial intelligence, representing a loss of $1.2 trillion in wages across sectors like finance and healthcare. The study bases its figures on the Iceberg Index, a labor simulation tool built jointly between MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which analyzes 151 million US workers, 923 different occupations and over 32,000 skills. MIT splits AI's effects on the US workforce into 'visible' impacts, such as tech sector layoffs and role shifts, and 'hidden' impacts, such as changes to HR, logistics and administration. Although 'visible' job losses in tech and computing roles are largely concentrated in tech hubs, 'hidden' redundancies are much broder geographically, covering all 50 states including rural areas, not just cities. States such as Delaware, South Dakota, North Carolina and Utah show higher 'hidden' exposure than California, which is home to a large concentration of tech firms. MIT stressed the Iceberg Index isn't a job loss prediction tool, but rather a tool that helps visualize which tasks AI can already handle. But it's still proven useful in policymaking, with Tennessee citing Iceberg in its official AI Workforce Action Plan and Utah preparing a similar move. North Carolina Senator DeAndrea Salvador also praised the index for its county-level detail (it covers about 3,000 US counties), which is helpful for mapping economic impacts on a local scale. MIT explains that the research can be useful for policymakers to identify exposure hotspots in order to prioritize training, upskills and infrastructure investments. These places can also be good test locations before the US commits to spending billions on workforce programs. "The Iceberg Index provides measurable intelligence for critical workforce decisions: where to invest in training, which skills to prioritize, how to balance infrastructure with human capital," the researchers concluded.

MIT report: AI can already replace nearly 12% of the U.S. workforce | Fortune

Artificial intelligence is now advanced and cheap enough to perform work equal to nearly 12% of U.S. jobs, according to a new MIT study -- news that's likely further to intensify pressure on employers, workers, and policymakers to prepare for rapid shifts in business and the economy. MIT's research, written in October but released on Wednesday, estimates that current AI systems could already take over tasks tied to 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, representing about 151 million workers and roughly 11.7% of total wage value, or around $1.2 trillion in pay. Unlike earlier estimates that focused on theoretical "exposure" to automation, the MIT research focuses on jobs where AI can perform the same tasks at a cost that's either competitive with or cheaper than human labor. The findings come from Project Iceberg, a large-scale labor simulation developed by MIT in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, home to the Frontier supercomputer. The model creates what researchers describe as a "digital twin of the U.S. labor market," simulating 151 million workers as individual agents, each with specific skills, occupations and locations. It tracks more than 32,000 skills across 923 job types in 3,000 counties and maps them against what current AI systems can already do. "We're effectively creating a digital twin of the U.S. labor market," Prasanna Balaprakash, a director at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-leader of the study, told CNBC. MIT's report makes it clear that the 11.7% figure reflects technical capability and economic feasibility, not a prediction that those jobs will disappear on a set timetable. It also highlights a gap between what is visible today and what is possible. AI adoption so far has been concentrated in tech work, particularly coding, representing about 2.2% of wage value, or roughly $211 billion in pay. But the researchers find that AI is already capable of handling cognitive and administrative tasks across finance, healthcare, and professional services that together represent around $1.2 trillion in wages -- about five times the currently visible impact. Early analysis points to significant exposure in white-collar, knowledge-heavy fields that were once seen as relatively insulated from automation. Finance, healthcare administration, human resources, logistics, and professional services such as legal and accounting work are among the areas where existing AI tools, including large language models (LLMs) and other software agents, can already execute many routine tasks. In other words, much of the potential disruption sits in more traditional back-office and professional roles that have drawn less public attention in AI debates. At the same time, MIT researchers and other economists caution that capability does not automatically translate into widespread job losses. Earlier work from MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory found that, for many roles, fully replacing human workers with AI remained too expensive or impractical in the near term, even where the technology could perform the tasks. Separate research from MIT Sloan concluded that, from 2010 to 2023, AI exposure did not lead to broad net job losses and often coincided with faster revenue and employment growth at adopting firms. The Iceberg Index is not designed to forecast specific layoffs. Instead, it gives policymakers and business leaders a way to stress-test different scenarios before they commit training dollars, infrastructure spending or new regulations. Tennessee, North Carolina and Utah have already begun using the platform to evaluate how AI might reshape their workforces and to inform state-level AI workforce action plans, the MIT report said. For companies, the study illustrates that the window to treat AI as a distant future issue is closing. For governments, it raises practical questions about how to retrain workers, support regions and sectors with high exposure, and adapt tax and social safety net systems to a labor market where software can already do a meaningful share of the work.

AI can replace nearly 12% of U.S. workers: MIT study

A Dexmate robot demonstration at the Nvidia booth during the Nvidia GTC (GPU Technology Conference) in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images) AI is able to replace nearly 12% of the U.S. workforce, according to a new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The survey simulated over 151 million U.S. workers interacting with AI tools across the country using a so-called "Iceberg Index" as a metric to measure automation potential. It was unveiled in August by MIT and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and captures the extent to which AI can perform occupational tasks. The study surveyed 32,000 skills across 923 jobs in 3,000 counties across the U.S., going beyond large coastal cities to dig deeper. The automation shown in the study was heavily concentrated among white-collar jobs in the finance, administrative and the professional services sector, encompassing $1.2 trillion in wages. Policymakers are hotly debating the extent to which the so-called AI revolution will disrupt the U.S. economy through job losses resulting from automation. Last week, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia warned that job seekers fresh out of college face new barriers stemming from companies employing AI to complete tasks that are common in first jobs. He said in a CNBC interview that he believed a 25% unemployment rate among recent college graduates was possible if policymakers do nothing about AI. However, other experts say that widespread automation hasn't taken root in the U.S. economy yet. An October analysis from the Yale Budget Lab said that there hasn't been "discernible disruption" since ChatGPT was introduced three years ago. "Historically, widespread technological disruption in workplaces tends to occur over decades, rather than months or years," the Yale paper said.

AI can already do the work of 12% of America's workforce, MIT researchers find

Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting. Artificial intelligence can do the work currently performed by nearly 12% of America's workforce, according to a recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The researchers, relying on a metric called the "Iceberg Index" that measures a job's potential to be automated, conclude that AI already has the cognitive and technical capacity to handle a range of tasks in technology, finance, health care and professional services. The index simulated how more than 150 million U.S. workers across nearly 1,000 occupations interact and overlap with AI's abilities. Specifically, it measures exposure to AI capabilities and how the rapidly emerging technology overlaps with workers' occupational skills. The study doesn't seek to shed light on how many workers AI may already have displaced or could supplant in the future. To what extent such tools take over job functions performed by people depends on a number of factors, including individual businesses' strategy, societal acceptance and possible policy interventions, the researchers note. AI's uses extend far beyond some of its most visible applications, such as writing computer code, the researchers note. Among the ways employers across different industries are using AI: The study analyzed workers' distinct skills and compared them to the abilities of more than 13,000 AI tools. In some cases, AI can augment human efforts, while in other types of work the technology is far more transformative, according to the researchers. For example, AI can streamline filling out paperwork, freeing nurses up to spend more time with patients. It can also quickly and accurately produce software code, forcing software engineers with limited skills to shift their focus. In addition, "[F]inancial analysts will not disappear, but AI systems may demonstrate capability across significant portions of document-processing and routine analysis work," the researchers said. "This reshapes how roles are structured and which skills remain in demand, without necessarily reducing headcount." AI is also already doing some of the entry-level jobs that have historically been reserved for recent college graduates or relatively inexperienced workers, the report notes. "AI systems now generate more than a billion lines of code each day, prompting companies to restructure hiring pipelines and reduce demand for entry-level programmers," the researchers wrote. "These observable changes in technology occupations signal a broader reorganization of work that extends beyond software development."

MIT's new 'Iceberg Index' study claims AI already has the 'cognitive and administrative' capability to replace 11.7% of the US workforce

Have I ever mentioned that I, for one, welcome our new LLM overlords? No? Well, now I have and with that sentiment of self-serving surrender comes news from the researchers at MIT. They have a new way to measure how AI is going to impact the labour market, you see, and this "Iceberg Index" now idicates that fully 11.7% of the US workforce could already be replaced by AI. That equates to $1.2 trillion in annual wages, according to MIT, and 17.7 million jobs. So, what is this Iceberg Index and how does it work? According to MIT, it's "a skills-centered KPI for the AI economy. It measures the percentage of wage value of skills that AI systems can perform within each occupation, revealing where human and AI capabilities overlap." "Basically, we are creating a digital twin for the US labor market," Prasanna Balaprakash, ORNL director and co-leader of the research, told CNBC. The Index works by treating the US's 151 million workers as individual autonomous agents, each tagged with various skills, occupations and locations. The model includes 32,000 skills, and 923 occupations across 3,000 counties, then measures where current AI systems can already perform those skills. It then calculates "the wage value of skills AI systems can perform." And that's where you get your $1.2 trillion and 17.7 million jobs. The "Iceberg" riff alludes to the MIT's findings that "visible AI adoption concentrated in computing and technology (2.2% of wage value, approximately $211 billion) represents only the tip of the iceberg." In other words, the obvious things that AI can do and that pose an immediate threat to very specific computing and technology jobs are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the "exposure" of the entire jobs market to the impact of AI. MIT and the research team say that the Iceberg Index is not meant to be a prediction engine, but instead is meant to help "policymakers and business leaders identify exposure hotspots, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation." Exactly what any of we mere mainstream mortals should make of all this, is hard to say. AI is clearly going to have a huge impact, but the specifics seem very hard to pin down. However, just to exit all this on a somewhat positive note, I'm reminded of an archived BBC documentary titled, "Now the Chips are Down." It was originally broadcast in 1978 and attacked the then novel subject of "silicon chips." Among the opening gambits of the film are these dispassionately delivered observations: "A chip can be made to anything from arithmetic to reading a book. Such chips will totally revolutionise our way of life. They are the reason why Japan is abandoning its ship building and why our children will grow up without jobs to go to." Well, that was the late 70s and it didn't quite play out like that, did it? I mean, chips can definitely now read books. But there were more jobs for people born in the 1970s and 1980s than ever before. So maybe there's hope yet for us all.

MIT study finds AI is already capable of replacing 11.7% of U.S. workers

A new study from MIT that shows that AI might be poised to replace a lot more jobs than what initial estimates might predict. According to researchers, a hidden mass of data reveals that AI is currently capable of taking over 11.7% of the labor market. The new estimate comes courtesy of a project called The Iceberg Index, which was made through a partnership between MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), a federally funded research center in Tennessee. According to its website, the Iceberg Index "simulates an agentic U.S. -- a human-AI workforce where 151M+ human workers coordinate with thousands of AI agents." In simpler terms, the tool is designed to simulate precisely how AI is poised to disrupt the current workforce, down to specific local zip codes. The Iceberg Index model treats America's 151 million workers as individual agents, each categorized by their skills, tasks, occupation, and location. In total, it maps more than 32,000 skills and 923 occupations across 3,000 counties. In an interview with CNBC, Prasanna Balaprakash, ORNL director and co-leader of the research, described this as a "digital twin for the U.S. labor market." Using that base of data, the index analyzes to what extent digital AI tools can already perform certain technical and cognitive tasks, and then produces an estimate of what AI exposure in each area looks like. Already, state governments in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah are using the index to prepare for AI-driven workforce changes. Here are three main takeaways from the study:

MIT: AI capability outpaces current adoption by five times

A new MIT study indicates artificial intelligence can perform work equivalent to 11.7% of U.S. jobs, potentially affecting 151 million workers. The research, conducted by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory under Project Iceberg, estimates current AI systems could manage tasks representing 11.7% of the U.S. labor market. This figure equates to approximately $1.2 trillion in wages. This analysis differs from previous estimates by focusing on jobs where AI performs tasks at a cost competitive with or cheaper than human labor. Project Iceberg developed a labor simulation, described as a "digital twin of the U.S. labor market," according to Prasanna Balaprakash, a study co-leader and director at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This model simulates 151 million workers with specific skills, occupations, and locations. It tracks over 32,000 skills across 923 job types in 3,000 counties, mapping them against current AI capabilities. The 11.7% figure reflects AI's technical capability and economic feasibility, not a prediction of immediate job displacement. AI adoption has largely focused on tech work, particularly coding, representing about 2.2% of wage value, or approximately $211 billion in pay. Researchers found AI is capable of handling cognitive and administrative tasks in finance, healthcare, and professional services, collectively representing around $1.2 trillion in wages. This is about five times the currently observed impact. Significant exposure is noted in white-collar, knowledge-intensive fields. These include finance, healthcare administration, human resources, logistics, and professional services such as legal and accounting. Existing AI tools, including large language models (LLMs), can execute many routine tasks in these areas. Much of this potential disruption is concentrated in traditional back-office and professional roles. MIT researchers caution that capability does not automatically translate to widespread job losses. Earlier work from MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory indicated that fully replacing human workers with AI remained too expensive or impractical in the near term for many roles. Separate research from MIT Sloan concluded that AI exposure from 2010 to 2023 did not lead to broad net job losses and often coincided with faster revenue and employment growth at adopting firms. The Iceberg Index serves as a tool for policymakers and business leaders to evaluate scenarios before committing resources. Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah are already using the platform to assess AI's potential impact on their workforces and to inform state-level AI workforce action plans, as stated in the MIT report. The study highlights a narrowing timeframe for companies to address AI as a future issue. For governments, it raises questions about worker retraining, supporting affected regions and sectors, and adapting tax and social safety net systems for a labor market where software can perform a meaningful share of work.

AI can already do the work of 12% of America's workforce, MIT researchers find

Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting. Artificial intelligence can do the work currently performed by nearly 12% of America's workforce, according to a recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The researchers, relying on a metric called the "Iceberg Index" that measures a job's potential to be automated, conclude that AI already has the cognitive and technical capacity to handle a range of tasks in technology, finance, health care and professional services. The index simulated how more than 150 million U.S. workers across nearly 1,000 occupations interact and overlap with AI's abilities. Specifically, it measures exposure to AI capabilities and how the rapidly emerging technology overlaps with workers' occupational skills. The study doesn't seek to shed light on how many workers AI may already have displaced or could supplant in the future. To what extent such tools take over job functions performed by people depends on a number of factors, including individual businesses' strategy, societal acceptance and possible policy interventions, the researchers note. AI's uses extend far beyond some of its most visible applications, such as writing computer code, the researchers note. Among the ways employers across different industries are using AI: "[F]inancial analysts will not disappear, but AI systems may demonstrate capability across significant portions of document-processing and routine analysis work," the researchers said. "This reshapes how roles are structured and which skills remain in demand, without necessarily reducing headcount." The study analyzed workers' distinct skills and compared them to the abilities of more than 13,000 AI tools. In some cases, AI can augment human efforts, while in other types of work the technology is far more transformative, according to the researchers. For example, AI can streamline filling out paperwork, freeing nurses up to spend more time with patients. It can also quickly and accurately produce software code, forcing software engineers with limited skills to shift their focus. But AI is already doing some of the entry-level jobs that have historically been reserved for recent college graduates or relatively inexperienced workers, the report notes. "AI systems now generate more than a billion lines of code each day, prompting companies to restructure hiring pipelines and reduce demand for entry-level programmers," the researchers wrote. "These observable changes in technology occupations signal a broader reorganization of work that extends beyond software development."

MIT Says AI Can Replace 11.7% of US Workforce | PYMNTS.com

By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions. That represents about $1.2 trillion in wages tied to potentially automatable work across finance, healthcare and professional services. The estimate comes from MIT's new labor analysis tool, the Iceberg Index, developed with Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The platform models how 151 million U.S. workers interact with thousands of AI tools to measure technical task exposure rather than forecast whether or when jobs will be eliminated. The study represents the first attempt to map AI capabilities against the entire U.S. labor market at the county level, CNBC reported Wednesday. Tennessee has already incorporated the findings into its statewide Artificial Intelligence Advisory Council Action Plan, and Utah is preparing a similar report. Visible AI adoption in computing and technology accounts for only 2.2% of wage value exposure, or roughly $211 billion, the report said. The remaining exposure reflects tasks that AI can perform today, even if no employer has automated them yet. The Iceberg Index maps AI system capabilities onto occupational skill requirements. Researchers cataloged more than 13,000 AI tools and aligned them with Bureau of Labor Statistics taxonomies covering 32,000 competencies across 923 occupations in about 3,000 counties. Each occupation's skills are weighted by importance, automatability and wage value. A skill is considered automatable when AI tools exist that a language model can use to execute that task. Research co-leader Prasanna Balaprakash of Oak Ridge National Laboratory described the platform as building a "digital twin for the U.S. labor market," per CNBC's report. The index measures exposure, not adoption, workforce displacement or policy impacts. Real-world outcomes depend on employer decisions, regulation, job design and reskilling capacity. AI deployment is concentrated in technology occupations, employing about 1.9 million workers. Software engineers, data scientists and program managers show the highest degree of overlap with existing AI capabilities. Washington leads the nation with 4.2% exposure in tech roles, followed by Virginia at 3.6% and California at 3%. The broader 11.7% figure reflects capability in document processing, financial analysis and routine administrative tasks. Exposure extends to routine functions in human resources, logistics, finance and office administration, CNBC reported. The study distinguishes between task replacement and task augmentation. Some AI systems can fully automate specific functions, while others support workers by handling repetitive or low-judgment components. Many exposed jobs may shift toward hybrid models rather than vanish. MIT economist David Autor told an audience at the MIT AI Conference in March that AI will likely augment human expertise more frequently than replace it. Exposure is not concentrated solely in coastal technology hubs. South Dakota, North Carolina and Utah show higher index values than California or Virginia when administrative and financial sectors are included. Industrial states also show high cognitive-task exposure. Tennessee registers 11.6% while Ohio reaches 11.8%, driven by administrative coordination and professional services embedded within manufacturing supply chains. The study used the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to examine whether exposure clusters in specific industries or spreads broadly. Northeastern states tend to show concentrated exposure led by finance and technology, while Manufacturing Belt states display more distributed patterns across logistics, production, administration and services. MIT researchers also developed an interactive simulation environment that allows states to model policy scenarios, including training investments and workforce funding before implementation.

AI already capable of replacing 11.7% of U.S. workforce, MIT study finds (SP500:)

A new study released by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, potentially impacting $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, healthcare, and professional services. The research, conducted using a labor MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. jobs, impacting $1.2 trillion in wages. Routine roles in HR, logistics, finance, and office administration are most exposed beyond just tech jobs. Policymakers can use it to identify exposure hotspots and test training or policy interventions before large investments.

Artificial Intelligence Can Already Replace 12 Percent of U.S. Jobs, MIT Study Finds

Meanwhile, one of the 'godfathers' of AI warns that the new technology will destroy millions of jobs and create massive unemployment. A new study from MIT suggests that artificial intelligence could already replace nearly 12 percent of the U.S. labor market, affecting jobs that account for as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, healthcare, and professional services. The research, conducted with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, used a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index to model how AI affects 151 million American workers. The index maps more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations and measures where current AI systems can already perform those skills. Researchers found that the most visible job shifts in tech represent just a small fraction -- 2.2 percent, or $211 billion -- of the total wage exposure. The larger, submerged part of the "iceberg" includes $1.2 trillion in wages across functions like human resources, logistics, and office administration -- areas often overlooked in automation forecasts. Rather than predicting specific job losses, the researchers say the index provides a snapshot of AI's current capabilities to help policymakers make informed decisions. Several state governments, including Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah, have already partnered with the researchers to run simulations and build policy scenarios. "Project Iceberg enables policymakers and business leaders to identify exposure hotspots, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation," the report says. One North Carolina state senator, DeAndrea Salvador, who worked on the project, highlighted the tool's ability to provide localized data. "One of the things that you can go down to is county-specific data to essentially say, within a certain census block, here are the skills ... and what could that mean in terms of the shifts in the state's GDP in that area, but also in employment," she said, according to CNBC. The study also challenges the idea that AI's impact will be limited to coastal tech hubs, showing that exposed occupations are spread across all 50 states. Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton, one of the so-called "godfathers" of AI, continues to voice dire warnings about the technology. During a conversation with Senator Bernie Sanders at Georgetown University last week, Mr. Hinton argued that AI's rapid deployment will be unlike past technological revolutions. "The people who lose their jobs won't have other jobs to go to," Mr. Hinton said. "If AI gets as smart as people -- or smarter -- any job they might do can be done by AI." Mr. Hinton, who won a Turing Award for his pioneering work on the neural networks that underpin modern generative AI, has previously expressed regret over his life's work. He believes the AI industry cannot be profitable without replacing human labor and has warned that we are less than 20 years away from artificial general intelligence, an AI with human or superhuman intelligence. Strikingly, Mr. Hinton now claims that the latest models like the unreleased GPT-5 "know thousands of times more than us already." However, some experts disagree, pointing out that while large language models are trained on vast amounts of data, they don't truly "know" or understand the information. Furthermore, attempts to replace workers with AI agents have often failed, particularly in customer service roles. Despite these setbacks, Mr. Hinton remains concerned. He argued that billionaires like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg haven't considered the economic consequences of mass unemployment. "If the workers don't get paid, there's nobody to buy their products," he said.