US export rules greenlight H200 sales to China, but strict limits put American buyers first

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The US Department of Commerce approved limited exports of Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X AI chips to China under strict conditions. Chinese buyers can only receive up to 50% of units sold to US customers, and domestic demand must be fully met first. However, China's customs authorities have reportedly told agents the H200 is not permitted entry, creating uncertainty despite the formal approval.

US Export Rules Allow H200 Sales to China With Major Restrictions

The U.S. Department of Commerce has unveiled new regulations permitting limited exports of advanced AI processors to China, most notably the Nvidia H200 AI chip and AMD Instinct MI325X, but with conditions that effectively prioritize American buyers and drastically limit volumes

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. The new US export rules mark a shift in trade policy, moving beyond simple performance thresholds to implement complex supply chain controls that treat China as a secondary market for AI hardware.

Source: Wccftech

Source: Wccftech

Under the regulations released by the Bureau of Industry and Security, approved devices must feature a total processing performance score below 21,000 points and total DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s

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. The AMD Instinct MI325X delivers 1,300 TFLOPS of FP16 performance with a TPP score of 20,800, paired with 256 GB of HBM3E memory and 6 TB/s bandwidth. Nvidia's H200 offers 989.5 TFLOPS of FP16 throughput, translating to a TPP score of 15,832, alongside 141 GB of HBM and 4.8 TB/s bandwidth

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. Both advanced AI processors fall below the stated thresholds and qualify for potential shipment.

Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

50% Shipment Limit Creates Significant Barrier for China AI Development

The most significant constraint involves the 50% shipment limit, which caps aggregate China-bound shipments at no more than half of the same product shipped to US customers

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. Exporters must prove that domestic demand is fully met, that no US orders are delayed, and that advanced-node foundry capacity serving US customers is not diverted

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. This approach effectively treats China as a market for AI processor leftovers, with volumes limited by US shipment history. If a company supplied 100,000 processors to American clients, it cannot ship more than 50,000 to Chinese customers simultaneously

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The chip export restrictions also require every shipment to undergo verification in an independent US-headquartered testing laboratory with no financial ties to the exporter or importer

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. Exporters must meet strict Know Your Customer and cloud computing usage rules, disclose end users, prevent unauthorized remote access, and bar transfers of model weights or trained algorithms to restricted parties such as Chinese military or secret service organizations

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. China cannot use the chips for military use under the new regulations

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China's Response Creates Uncertainty Despite US Approval

Despite the formal US approval, Chinese customs authorities told customs agents this week that Nvidia's H200 chips are not permitted to enter China

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. Chinese government officials also summoned domestic technology companies to meetings where they were explicitly instructed not to purchase the chips unless necessary

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. The wording from officials was described as severe, essentially constituting a ban for now, though this might change should circumstances evolve

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. It remains unclear whether Beijing wants to ban the H200 outright so domestic chip companies can flourish, or whether these measures could serve as a bargaining tactic in talks with Washington

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Market Impact and Demand for Advanced AI Processors

Alibaba shares jumped as much as 4.8% in Hong Kong on initial optimism about potential H200 access, with other Chinese AI firms like Kuaishou Technology and JD.com also gaining more than 4% each

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. Alibaba has told Nvidia privately that it is interested in ordering more than 200,000 units of the H200

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. Chinese technology companies have placed orders for more than two million H200 chips priced at around $27,000 each, far exceeding Nvidia's inventory of 700,000 chips

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Source: Benzinga

Source: Benzinga

Access to these semiconductors would help Chinese firms upgrade and run their models for AI model training as they seek to compete with OpenAI and other US rivals

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. While Chinese chipmakers like Huawei have developed AI processors such as the Ascend 910C, the H200 is considered far more efficient for large-scale training of advanced AI models

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. The H200 delivers roughly six times the performance of the previously available H20, making it highly attractive

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Nvidia and AMD shares stayed flat following the announcement, suggesting investors don't see the new rules as likely to deliver a flood of sales and revenue

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. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang previously stated the company's share of the AI chip market in China had shrunk to zero after earlier restrictions

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. Nvidia responded to the new regulations by stating they "applaud President Trump's decision to allow America's chip industry to compete to support high paying jobs and manufacturing in America"

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. The regulations aim to ensure US national security benefits while maintaining leadership in artificial intelligence

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. GPUs like the H200 represent older technology compared to Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell and upcoming Rubin chips, which were not part of the approved exports

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. The complex interplay between US trade policy and China's response will shape the future of High-Performance Computing access and competitive dynamics in AI development.

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