Ukraine's Military Tech Innovation: Reshaping Modern Warfare and Global Defense Dynamics

How drones have transformed the nature of war

A couple of weeks ago, a German bestseller called If Russia Wins was translated into English -- and sparked a frisson in some Anglo-Saxon military circles. The book outlines a scenario in which Moscow launches a hybrid war, say by grabbing an Estonian town or island, setting off a Nato crisis. Fantastical? Yes, a few years ago. But not now; least of all given that Russian drones recently invaded Polish space. Nor that European governments are finally -- belatedly -- pledging to raise military spending; and Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, has just announced plans to create a "drone wall" on Europe's eastern flank, with Ukraine's help. Foreign policy wonks should pay attention. But so should investors and voters. For the "drone wall" is not just important in a geopolitical sense; it also highlights an increasingly crucial story about tech and innovation for the west. Indeed, if President Donald Trump really wants to bolster US power, his team should urgently read If Russia Wins -- and watch that drone wall. That is because the way Ukraine is defending itself has undergone an unexpected (and still often unrecognised) shift. Back in 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion, Kyiv had to use its existing Soviet-style kit plus Javelin shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles. Then came western donations of weaponry like Abrams tanks and Himars (high mobility artillery rocket systems). Next, Ukraine's army of software engineers started using hobby drones, made by Chinese companies such as DJI, first for surveillance, then attacks and defence. Now they are innovating to dramatically extend drone flight range, increase attack capabilities, "swarm" and avoid electronic jamming by using fibre optic cables, balloons and (most crucially) AI. The Russians are doing the same. And that has transformed the nature of war: a world where cheap drones can destroy ultra-expensive ships and planes changes the power dynamics and economics of combat. "Western systems which were impactful initially are now of very mixed effectiveness," David Petraeus, a former US army general, told a conference in Kyiv last week. Equally startling, while China has been responsible for 80 per cent of global drone production, Ukraine is now racing to become "China free", Oleksandr Kamyshin, a key political adviser, told me in Kyiv. Last year it produced more than 2mn drones. It could go above 10mn next year, if it has the funds. That means over half of Ukraine's drones are now domestically sourced -- and China is no longer the only global drone king. This is critical for Ukraine's defence, and might generate badly needed future export revenues too. Indeed, Ukraine is already considering exporting underwater drones, which it has used to push Russian ships out of the Black Sea so successfully that "we don't have a lot left to hit", one official tells me. But unfortunately, "Russians have been diligent pupils" in copying this innovation, admits Andriy Biletsky, a Ukrainian commander, and "are very good at scaling up". This creates an innovation race -- and puts Ukraine and Russia far ahead of Europe and America. In response, Nato officials now want to collaborate with Ukraine via partnerships, licensing and private capital investments. They are particularly keen to access the treasure trove of data collected by its drones to train future AI models. "Their equipment is already battle tested," notes Radek Sikorski, Poland's deputy prime minister. And that shifts the diplomatic power balance. Ukraine is no longer just begging for western help; it also has something Europe and America need. Collaborating will not be easy. Some western investors and governments are wary of investing in a war zone. Trust between Ukraine and America has collapsed. The Ukrainians are short of investment funds. There is also a culture clash around innovation models. Kamyshin says Russia uses a top-down, centralised product development system -- but Ukraine has an entrepreneurial ecosystem more akin to Silicon Valley, with fierce grassroots competition between manufacturers who jointly develop products with their "customers", ie the army. The former system is better for scale. However, the latter is more resilient and has speedier innovation. And since the European and American procurement systems are closer to the Russian model, importing the Ukrainian approach will be hard -- as any business school student would know. But American and European private capital investors and entrepreneurs are trying do precisely that. So are some governments. So let us pray that these European partnerships accelerate and that a dose of self-interest around AI keeps Trump engaged too. And if that Polish drone incursion -- and If Russia Wins -- finally gets European leaders to wake up, that would be a good outcome. For better or worse, Ukraine and the west both need each other now, not just to defend against Russia but a future China too.

Ukraine courts foreign cash for military 'Silicon Valley'

Lviv (Ukraine) (AFP) - At the opening of Ukraine's biggest defence tech fair, arms executives and government officials were welcomed by a giant movie screen blaring an action-style trailer with heavy base undertones. The two-day event is part of Ukraine's bid to position itself as a leader in military innovation and encourage hesitant foreign investment, more than three and a half years into the Russian invasion. "We need to forget Silicon Valley -- it's the past. Ukraine is the future," Europe's Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius said at the event, which began Tuesday and the details of which were only made public Friday. The crowd, gathered in the western city of Lviv, applauded. The idea that Ukraine's Western allies could learn from Kyiv has taken on new weight after more than a dozen Russian drones flew through Poland's airspace last week. Moscow has denied targeting the NATO member, but for some, the incident exposed the alliance's weaknesses. Seen from Kyiv, the scrambling of jets and firing of advanced missiles to try to down the drones was an outdated -- and far too expensive -- response. "We understood a very simple truth: that we do not have those capabilities which Ukraine has, to fight against drone invasion," Kubilius said. - Buzzing robots - To counter nightly Russian drone attacks, Ukraine has developed a suite of cheap and effective tools, like electronic jammers and interceptor drones. It has been downing more than 80 percent of the thousands of Russian drones that are fired at it every month, AFP analysis of Kyiv's air force data shows. On the other hand, the scrambled NATO forces shot down under five of the 20-odd that flew through Poland last week. Kyiv's strategy has been to repurpose basic consumer tech for military purposes -- such as strapping explosives to small first-person-view drones that are used to film aerial landscapes or stunts. Their unmistakable buzz filled the exhibition zone at the Lviv fair. Futuristic robots resembling oversized remote-controlled cars -- designed to ferry weapons to the front or evacuate wounded soldiers from the battlefield -- were also on display. Adding to the Silicon Valley vibe, young engineers hovered over sleek screens showing how they could be integrated with artificial intelligence. "This is a display to show that Ukraine is tech-savvy and growing. That you need to be in Ukraine if you're in defence tech," said Thomas Moreau from the French defence trade association GICAT. 'Peanuts' But beyond flashy displays, there is still a long way to go. Foreign investment in Ukraine's military tech is "peanuts," said Yaroslav Azhnyuk, the CEO of Fourth Law, which makes AI systems for attack drones. He said the West was missing the urgency of the situation, stressing the only way to beat Russia was by winning the technological arms race. "It's like watching the sequel of 'Don't Look Up'," he said, referring to the dystopian movie where scientists try to alert oblivious and disinterested officials about an imminent catastrophe. Foreign companies announced plans to invest over $100 million in Ukrainian defence technology during the event, organiser Brave1, a government platform overseeing military innovation, said. AI drone company Swarmer closed the largest public deal, securing $15 million from US investors. For comparison, an MP said recently that Ukraine is spending some $170 million a day on the war. Attendees told AFP that investment faces barriers, including strict regulations that de facto ban exports amid shortages. "Ukraine has unique experience and technologies it's ready to share," said Oleksandr Yarmak, a commander within the Nemesis military unit. "But we have little time for this amid daily combat," he added. Officials are keen to share their knowledge of battlefield-proven tech, and Kyiv is pushing for other solutions -- like joint investments abroad. Ukraine and Poland on Thursday created a group to share training and operational knowledge on drone threats. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently announced the first co-production deal in Denmark, while more than 25 companies are moving some production to Ukraine, Defence Minister Denys Shmygal said Friday. Event organiser Brave1 is patient. "It's a learning curve that we are going through," Artem Moroz, its head of investor relations, told AFP. "As time goes on, the investment rounds are getting bigger."

To repel Russia, Ukraine wants Western allies to invest in its defense industry

KYIV, Ukraine -- With little chance of NATO membership for Ukraine, the country's Western allies have bought into an alternate strategy for helping it repel Russian aggression: invest billions in Ukraine's weapons industry so it can better defend itself. If the strategy works, Ukraine's weapons industry will eventually be able to help equip U.S. and European armies, too, with cutting-edge drones and other military technology being developed in the midst of its war with Russia. One recent advance in Ukraine's homegrown arsenal is a quadcopter drone that can evade Russian jamming devices, fly more than 20 kilometers (12 miles) and drop six kilograms (13 pounds) of guided explosives onto tanks and other high-value targets. "The Ukrainians are the leaders in the world in terms of drone technology," Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration's special envoy for Ukraine said last week at a conference in Kyiv. "We are working with Ukrainians now to make sure we have got this drone technology exchange, which I think is very important." Europeans have been taking the threat from Russia more seriously since the second Trump administration began signaling that NATO members shouldn't be overly reliant on the U.S. to defend them. Anxieties across Europe were heightened last week after Russian drones launched from Belarus were shot down in Polish airspace. For its part, Ukraine is seeking investment to triple its weapons production, become less reliant on Western partners to fight Russia - and hopefully deter future conflicts. Ukraine's weapons industry now meets nearly 60% of its army's needs, up from 10% when Russia's full-scale invasion began 3 1/2 years ago, according to its defense minister. But its military budget -- $64 billion in 2024 -- is less than half the size of Russia's, which is why it turns to Western allies for weapons and, increasingly, money. In addition to any private investment, and in lieu of NATO membership, security guarantees for Ukraine will likely center on European governments investing in its army -- essentially paying Kyiv to build its own weapons and plugging in production gaps with mutually beneficial joint ventures. European countries are eager to do this, said Fabien Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Ukraine has the advantage of having battle-tested systems, of having quite low production costs and having entities in place capable of producing these systems rapidly." For both sides, the war has necessitated fast cycles of innovation as a matter of survival. How quickly a weapon can be developed, shipped to an army unit and improved upon is a matter of life and death. Like most defense companies in Ukraine, the maker of the R-34 quadcopter drone -- FRDM -- communicates with soldiers at all hours of the day and quickly incorporates feedback. Its founder, Vadym Yunyk, is guided by the motto: Robots should die in the front lines, not people. That underscores one of Ukraine's disadvantages in this war -- its lack of soldiers, which has been a key driver of innovation for Ukrainian defense companies. Investments in artificial intelligence and robotics are enabling Ukraine to do what its allies could scarcely have imagined before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. With help from drones and autonomous vehicles, Ukrainian forces can now strike targets with remote-controlled weapons further afield and more precisely, as well as deliver supplies and evacuate the wounded from the front lines without risking other soldiers' lives. Ukraine's small first-person view, or FPV, drones, are responsible for nearly 70% of Russian losses in manpower and weaponry within 15 kilometers of the front line, according to Ukrainian officials. At the other end of the spectrum are its deep strike drones, which can reach over 1,000 kilometers to hit targets deep inside Russian territory. FRDM's quadcopter lies somewhere in the middle. The latest version of the weapon was modified from an earlier model to fly three times farther and carry more guided bombs. "We learned very quickly how to scale any production. If the government places an order to produce 10,000 drones a year instead of 3,000, I will be capable of doing this in a month and a half," Yunyk said. Drones aren't the only area where Ukrainian defense companies are leveraging technology to offset Russia's much bigger and better-equipped army. Ukr Armo Tech's armored personnel carrier, known as the Gurza-1, comes with sophisticated modifications designed to absorb drone strikes and better protect Ukrainian infantrymen, CEO Hennadii Khirhii said. The Gurza-2, a more agile vehicle that can carry more men, will soon go into production. Ukr Armo Tech produced 500 vehicles last year for the Ukrainian army, but Khirhii said it has plans to triple capacity. "Even in the traditional subsector of armored vehicles, we are way ahead of some European companies," said Pavlo Verkhniatskyi, a defense industry expert based in Kyiv. "We know the calibers the Russians are using to shoot vehicles, we know the special munitions they use to penetrate armor," he said. "All this knowledge is put into vehicles produced here." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that, with greater financial support from Europe, Ukraine's army and defense industry can become a "steel porcupine" that will make the country less vulnerable to attack in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine is capable of producing at least $30 billion of weapons annually -- or roughly three times what currently is budgeted for. It isn't just money Ukraine is seeking; it also envisions licensing and manufacturing deals with Western arms companies. Ukraine believes it has expertise to share. What it has learned from more than three years of war with Russia is that 21st century weapons manufacturers must be able to adapt and deliver to the battlefield more quickly than their predecessors. "It's not just about your ability to feed the stocks," said Arsen Zhumadilov, the head of the state's procurement agency. Yunyk said European defense companies have mid- to long-term planning, but they have yet to implement the kind of processes that allow for the type of innovation and rapid turnaround necessitated by modern warfare. "If you want equipment relevant for today's war conditions that is the only approach you can take," he said. Denmark was the first country to directly finance Ukrainian defense companies, rather than donate weapons. And earlier this month, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was partnering with Danish companies to build components for Ukrainian missiles and drones at a factory in Denmark -- out of reach from Russian attacks. Britain has said it has similar plans. Ukraine is set to receive 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion) from a collection of countries, including Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Norway and Iceland, to produce artillery, strike drones, missiles and anti-tank systems. And Germany has made a similar deal, though terms haven't yet been made public. Ukraine is also hoping for more joint ventures, said Zhumadilov. "When they enter the market they invest into the production and then they have their government pay for our ability to buy it and deliver it to the battlefield," he said. "This is the best."