UK Military Chief Warns: Nation Must Prepare for Potential War Within Three Years

UK must be ready for war within three years, head of British Army warns

Britain's army must be ready within three years to fight a war against an "axis of upheaval" of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, the force's new chief has warned. General Sir Roly Walker predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin will emerge from his invasion of Ukraine "very, very dangerous" and "wanting retribution" against countries like the UK that supported the Ukrainian armed forces, whether Moscow wins or loses. "The point here is when you think they [the Russians] are down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance," he told a briefing with journalists on the sidelines of the army's annual public conference. Speaking unusually bluntly for a serving officer, General Walker also cautioned about the potential of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a desire by Iran to develop nuclear weapons and the threat posed by North Korea. He described how these countries are creating a relationship between each other - sharing weapons and technologies - and how this challenge could converge by 2027 to 2028. "That is why you get to this point by... 2027-2028 this convergence may have reached some sort of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with them in isolation - a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules based system - I think is significantly diminished," he said. "A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world." Read more: New defence secretary says military's problems 'much worse' than thought Given the threats, General Walker said there was an "urgent need" for the British Army to rebuild its ability to deter future wars with credible fighting power. The commander also warned the army would lose if they stick with old ideas about warfare instead of adapting to embrace new technologies that are transforming the battlefield. "I am saying we are not on an inexorable path to war but what we do have is an absolute urgency to restore credible hard power in order to underwrite deterrence," he said. He described it as a "not the war plan", which he set out in a speech, also on Tuesday, at the army's Land Warfare Conference in London. The general said he aims to double the ability of the army to fight and kill by 2027 and to destroy an enemy force of at least three times their size by the end of the decade. But the chief of the general staff said this would not require more troops or money - though he cautioned against any further cuts to the size of the army and its budget. The new government last week launched a sweeping review of defence, which will likely lead to cuts in capability unless the Treasury commits to a significant increase in the defence budget. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income from just over 2% at present, but has yet to specify a timeframe. But many defence insiders believe even that level of boost is still too small for what would be needed for the UK credibly to fight any kind of war, let alone a full-scale war of survival. General Walker said the key - given the lack of time to procure new, large weapons systems - was to innovate and adapt, using autonomous weapons, artificial intelligence and other forms of new technology to make soldiers more effective killers, as Ukraine's military is doing against Russia. "We have just enough time... to prepare, act, and assure the re-establishment of credible land forces to support a strategy of deterrence," he said in his speech. Read more on Sky News: Experts want clear timeframe on Starmer's defence pledge IT outage should be 'wake-up call for governments' Addressing the state of the army, hollowed out by decades of cost-saving cuts since the end of the Cold War, the new chief offered a reality check and tried to make a virtue of his force's reduced size. "We are, in fact, a medium-sized army," he said - describing this as a feature that should be embraced and saying it was "out of date" to evaluate strength from "raw troop numbers". The much more meaningful metric is the fighting power of the force. "If we can double then triple our fighting power, any British land force will be able to destroy a force at least three times its size and keep on doing that," he said. "That way we will have every confidence in being ready and able to fight anyone and win."

Britain must be ready for war in three years, says Army chief

General Sir Roly Walker warns a 'very dangerous' Russia might attempt to seek revenge on West for aiding Ukraine Britain must be ready to fight a major war in three years, the new head of the Army has said, as he warned Russia will seek revenge on the West for aiding Ukraine. General Sir Roly Walker, Chief of the General Staff, said the Army needed to rapidly modernise to double its ability to kill the enemy by 2027 and triple it by the end of the decade. In his first major intervention since assuming the role last month, the former SAS officer said Britain must be able to "deter or fight a war in three years". He warned that in the second half of this decade, Russia, China and Iran could group to put the West under pressure and achieve their individual goals. Sir Roly pointed to a scenario whereby a "very, very dangerous" Russia emerges from Ukraine, either defeated or as victors, China invades Taiwan and Iran becomes more aggressive. "That is why you get to this point by ... 2027-2028 this convergence may have reached some sort of mutual singularity and your ability to deal with them in isolation - a specific crisis that can be managed by the rules-based system - I think is significantly diminished," Sir Roly said. "A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world." Land forces 'not as strong as could be' His comments came hours after Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the professional head of the armed forces, said Britain's land forces were "not as strong as we could be". Both were speaking at the start of a major review of defence policy by the new Labour government, Sir Roly did not call for more troops or extra money, pushing back against a "big army" mindset. Sir Roly did not call for more troops or extra money, pushing back against a "big army" mindset. Instead, he said he wants fighting units to increase their "lethality" through better use of technology and smarter tactics, as has been demonstrated in Ukraine. The ambition would be for a British brigade combat team of around 7,000 to be able to defeat a Russian combined arms army of approximately 21,000. Much of the strategy depends upon getting cutting-edge software, including artificial intelligence, into the hands of frontline troops and improving the flow of data, both between units and with commanders. 'Russia will want retribution' Describing the potential threat in Europe, he said that however the Ukraine war ended, "I think Russia will emerge from it probably weaker objectively, or absolutely, but still very, very dangerous, and wanting some form of retribution for what we have done to help Ukraine." "By any measure, they have lost hundreds of thousands of casualties, and if they carry on as they are it's going to take them five years just to take the Dombas. "So that's a hell of a price that they paid. And the lesson from history is that the Russians don't forget, and they will come back to get their revenge." Speaking at the Royal United Services land warfare conference, Sir Roly added: "Each time you think Russia is down they come flying back." He said military chiefs should embrace the army's status as "medium-sized", and use it as a catalyst to modernise so that "any British land force will be able to destroy an enemy three times its size". The central strategy, he said, should be to improve the army's fighting power to convince Nato's enemies that they could not win a quick victory, thus deterring them from aggression. "We have just enough time ... to prepare, act, and assure the re-establishment of credible land forces to support a strategy of deterrence," he said. "We will sense twice as far, decide in half the time, and deliver effects over double the distance with half as many munitions. "Our Ukrainian partners are beginning to do this with great results now, marrying cheap and expendable sensors and effectors to smart software that is coming from British coders." Sir Roly warned that "if we fight with the old ideas, the chances are we lose". He pointed to an "air-land" doctrine developed in the 1980s, based on the premise of control of the air and an ability to launch simultaneous deep strikes into the enemy's territory. This has been "severely" hampered by the advances in anti-air systems, as demonstrated in Ukraine. Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, has pledged to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent but has not given a target date, in contrast to the former Conservative government which had given a deadline of 2030. Despite his criticisms of Britain's state of readiness, Sir Tony was bullish about Nato's relative strength compared to President Putin's forces. Describing Russia's situation in Ukraine as "dire" he said it would take five years to rebuild its army following the losses it had sustained in its full-scale invasion. "Russia has lost 555,000 men and our assessment is that it would take Putin five years to reconstitute the Russian army to where it was in February 2022, and another five years beyond that to rectify the weaknesses that the war has revealed." He said the British army needed to be properly equipped with hypersonic missiles and "battalions of attack drones" to play its full part in Nato's defence of Europe, should Russia invade a member state. However, Sir Tony said Russia still posed a threat below the level of an invasion into a Nato member state, which would trigger the alliance's Article 5 protocol for mutual defence. "While Putin may not directly attack a Nato member in such an overt manner as to trigger Article V, we have seen that he's able to threaten us in other ways, in cyber and space and underwater, where our energy infrastructure and digital networks are most vulnerable," he said.

UK to 'Double Fighting Power in Three Years,' Top British General Says

The head of the British Army has said the United Kingdom will "double its fighting power" by 2027 and then triple the lethality of its army by 2030. The NATO country plans to have its land forces ready to deter but ultimately win a war within three years. "I have a bold ambition to double our fighting power in three years and triple it by the end of the decade," General Sir Roly Walker, the new chief of the British Army, said during a land warfare conference in London on Tuesday. The term "fighting power" does not refer to doubling and then tripling the British Army's manpower but is measured by other factors, such as doubling the amount of time an armed forces can endure a conflict, using half the amount of munitions for the same impact, or double the distance a force can detect the enemy. "We have just enough time" to "prepare, act, and assure the reestablishment of credible land forces to support a strategy of deterrence," Walker said. There is an "absolute urgency to restore credible, hard power," he added while insisting that war was not inevitable. It is understood that this vision will have the U.K. prepared to deter and, if that fails, win a war by around 2027 or 2028. Alarm bells have long been ringing over the state of the British Army as NATO nations across Europe move to quickly build up their defense industries and military forces while hiking up defense spending. This is particularly acute on NATO's eastern flank, with Poland upping its defense spending to 5 percent next year. Senior British military and government figures have said the British Army has suffered from years of underinvestment, and Britain's new defense minister, John Healey, described the force as "hollowed out" during a speech in London on Monday. General Sir Patrick Sanders, the former British Army chief who left the position last month, warned earlier this year that the U.K. needed to take "preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing." The British land forces will need to be able to destroy an enemy "three times its size," Walker said. "My vision for the British Army is to field fifth-generation land forces that set the joint force up for that 'unfair fight,'" Walker said. The phrase "unfair fight" refers to having confidence that the army's strength will deter any adversary and that any fight that took place could be quickly won. Walker said that these fifth-generation forces will use "advanced technologies," such as artificial intelligence. The threat facing the British army and NATO countries will be more acute by 2027 because of a "convergence" of factors, the British army chief said. In a few years, there will be more pressing threats from Iran and its nuclear weapons development, from China with its belligerence toward Taiwan, from North Korea and a battle-scarred Russia, Walker said. "If we are to deter an increasingly aligned axis of upheaval, we need to apply all strengths as a strong democracy against the weaknesses of their rigid, autocratic regimes." Regardless of the outcome of the full-scale war in Ukraine -- which Moscow has been fighting since it launched its February 2022 invasion -- Russia will be "very, very dangerous" in the late 2020s and will be "wanting retribution for the support given to Ukraine." "When you think they're down, they will come roaring back to get their vengeance," Walker said. A deadline of 2027 will also coincide with a round of NATO military drills known as Steadfast Defender 27. This year's Steadfast Defender 24 exercises were NATO's largest since the Cold War.

British defence chief vows to triple fighting power but shies away from conscription

Adm Sir Tony Radakin says British army could justify extra investment if its effectiveness improves Britain's most senior military officer has promised the army will double its lethality in three years, but backed away from the idea of endorsing conscription in his first speech following the general election. Adm Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of defence staff, said that the British army could justify extra investment if its effectiveness improved, though he stopped short of asking for more money while Labour ministers reviewed the public finances. The head of the armed forces said the army was "focused on doubling the fighting power of land forces by 2027 and to triple it by the end of the decade" and argued that politicians would respond if land forces could do more for less. Labour has begun a strategic defence review after the general election, at a time when the size of the British army is at its smallest for 300 years and when there are calls to boost defence spending in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But while the government has agreed to lift defence spending from the current level of 2.32% of GDP - £64.6bn - to 2.5%, it has not yet committed to a firm timetable. Ministers want to look at the nation's books before deciding what is possible. "Politics responds to positive reasons to invest," Radakin told the Land Warfare conference, and argued that "the ambition grows" the more the military is able to "make the case for a stronger and more capable army". However, Radakin did not call for a return to national service, a surprise election promise made by the defeated Conservatives, and said the UK's national security did not depend on an army enlarged by young conscripts. "Poland is doubling the size of its army over the next decade. The Baltic and Nordic states are talking about mass resilience and conscription. That is understandable. They border Russia. The threat is close. Our geography is different," Radakin said. Several months before the election, in January, the former army chief Sir Patrick Sanders suggested that a form of conscription to create a citizens' army on the Nordic model may be necessary, arguing that the UK was in a "pre-war" moment. Sanders has since retired from the military and Radakin and his successor, Sir Roly Walker, are carefully aligning the army's ambitions with Labour. The party dismissed Sunak's national service plan as a gimmick during the election campaign. However, the British army's full-time strength has fallen below the previous government's target of 73,000, while considerable supplies of munitions and equipment have been donated to Ukraine. Radakin said the army had "near-term financial challenges to work through". There had been "historic under-investment" and there were "deficiencies in people, equipment, stockpiles, training and technology". Military chiefs believe that the combined threat from Russia, even though it is embroiled in a costly war in Ukraine, China and possibly Iran and North Korea is increasing and will become sharper by 2027 or 2028. It is not clear how increasing lethality will be measured, but the army believes it can make better use of armed drones - a mainstay of the battlefields in the east of Ukraine - and deploy advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence. At the same time, Ukraine's military has demonstrated it has been able to make effective use of weapons the UK and other Nato countries were retiring, leaving the army to consider whether older munitions are being rendered obsolete too quickly. Radakin said it was important not to over-exaggerate any threat posed by Russia, and repeated a Ukrainian figure that the invaders had lost 550,000 killed or wounded since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. It would take a while for Moscow to rebuild, he argued. "It would take Putin five years to reconstitute the Russian army to where it was in February 2022, and another five years beyond that to rectify the weaknesses that the war has revealed."