OECD Report: Generative AI to Transform High-Skilled Jobs in Metropolitan Areas

GenAI comes for jobs once considered 'safe' from automation

Specialty in cognitive non-routine tasks means high-skilled city workers affected Jobs in geographical areas and scope once thought to be at low risk of automation are soon to be the most affected by generative AI, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). "Generative AI will transform many jobs, but its impact will be greatest in regions that have been least exposed to past waves of automation," the OECD stated in its Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024 report, released late last week. The impact of generative AI on the roles will be even greater and more wide-sweeping than it was for previous automated technologies, the report said. Previously, automation affected more rural and manufacturing jobs, but generative AI's specialty lies in cognitive non-routine tasks, meaning it will affect more high-skilled workers and women than previous automation technologies. This also means its impact will be seen in metropolitan areas, where these roles are typically based. The OECD puts out a version of this report annually, reflecting major changes and disruptions in the job market for that year. The 2024 report focused on the geography of generative AI, while the 2023 version focused on examining the landscape of green jobs. The latest report measured the impact of generative AI by how much of workers' tasks could become at least 50 percent faster through its use. Currently, this applies to 25 percent of the labor market in OECD countries and 20 percent of these staffers' tasks. This number is expected to grow as the technology matures - to a point where up to 70 percent of these employees could have half of their tasks done at least 50 percent faster with generative AI. The industries most exposed are education, ICT, and finance. But just because a job is "affected" by generative AI doesn't mean the role itself will go away. In the past decade, automation has not led to widespread employment declines and it boosted productivity. Regions with higher risk of automation experienced a 5.6 percent increase in labor productivity over five years. While there have been some job losses, most regions have experienced a surplus in job creation, though these jobs may not directly benefit those displaced by automation. Whether AI will help or hinder a workforce is all in how the technology is applied. For example, it can help unlock untapped talent in low-skilled workers or make once inaccessible jobs achievable for those with disabilities, noted the OECD. AI can be used to supplement workers where feasible, which can ease labor shortages and the effects of an aging workforce. Solving those problems effectively with automation and generative AI will require policies across all member regions, the OECD stated. "Targeted programs should focus on addressing place-specific obstacles, whether they relate to a region's attractiveness to workers and capital, the quality of regional education and training systems, or regulatory frameworks," it concluded. ®

AI reckons it can do all jobs, even those thought previously 'safe'

Experts are calling for more detailed policies to protect displaced workers Although early concerns that AI could replace human workers have largely been squashed, every now and then we hear of another study that says otherwise, and OECD's Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024 report certainly gives that impression. The report explores how cognitive non-routine tasks, such as those performed by highly-skilled professionals, are increasingly within the scope of AI. Up until now, low-skilled, repetitive and administration tasks have been most affected by the technology, which has the power to process huge amounts of data very quickly to get routine tasks done. Unlike earlier automation trends that primarily impacted manufacturing and automotive roles, generative AI is now promising to change roles in education, finance and IT. The study found that GenAI already affects around a quarter of jobs, but OECD doesn't seem too concerned about AI actually replacing human workers. Instead, the study likens the emerging tech to automation, which actually led to a net creation of jobs despite some being lost for good. OECD's report also suggests that AI could be used to tackle the ongoing skills shortage by increasing accessibility to those who might not have previously been able to undertake certain roles. Looking ahead, OECD says that the "uneven recovery" seen post-pandemic cannot repeat itself as AI progresses. It calls for more effective collaboration between the public and private sectors to create policies that advocate workers' rights and to invest in upskilling and reskilling initiatives. The study calls specifically for policies that identify opportunities where AI can drive regional growth, build awareness of AI's benefits for workers and employers, improve the uptake of AI tools across small businesses, establish frameworks to control AI risks and provide tailored support for displaced workers.