AI's Projected Impact on Music Industry: 25% Income Loss by 2028

AI's Looming Impact on the Music Industry

A groundbreaking global economic study by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC) has revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly disrupt the music industry. The report predicts that by 2028, workers in the music and audiovisual sectors could lose nearly 25% of their income due to the rapid growth of generative AI 1

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Projected Growth and Revenue Shifts

The study forecasts an exponential expansion of the generative AI market from €3 billion in 2023 to €64 billion by 2028. This growth is expected to have a profound impact on traditional revenue streams for creators 2

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. By 2028, AI-generated music could account for:

• 20% of revenue on traditional streaming platforms
• 60% of music library revenue

Meanwhile, AI developers and providers in the music industry are projected to gain €4 billion, up from €0.1 billion in 2023 2

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Threats to Human Creativity

CISAC, representing over 5 million creators worldwide, warns that unchecked AI development will primarily benefit tech companies while threatening creators' rights and incomes. The report highlights a double threat faced by creators 3

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1. Loss of income from copyright violations by large language models
2. Reduced opportunities as AI-generated content competes with traditional works

Industry Reactions and Concerns

Björn Ulvaeus, CISAC president and former ABBA band member, emphasized the potential damage of poorly regulated AI to human creators' careers and livelihoods 4

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. The music industry has already begun taking defensive measures, with Sony Music Group warning companies against using its content for AI training without permission 1

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Call for Regulatory Action

The study underscores the urgent need for policymakers to step in and protect creators' rights. Australia and New Zealand were commended for their proactive approach in developing AI policies that balance creator protection with innovation 2

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. Key recommendations include:

• Introduction of standalone AI legislation
• Stronger protections for creative workers
• Safeguards for Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property

Global Impact and Future Outlook

The cumulative loss for music and audiovisual creators is estimated at €22 billion over a five-year period 4

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. While acknowledging AI's potential to enhance creativity, industry leaders stress the importance of fair compensation and ethical use of copyrighted material in AI development.

As the debate continues, the music industry faces a critical juncture, balancing the opportunities presented by AI with the need to protect the livelihoods of human creators.