Trump Administration Maintains Strict Blackwell GPU Export Ban to China Despite Trade Truce

Reviewed byNidhi Govil

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President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent affirm that Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell AI chips will remain restricted to the US, with China potentially gaining access only when the technology becomes outdated in future generations.

Trump Administration Reinforces Blackwell Export Restrictions

President Donald Trump has definitively stated that China will not gain access to Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell AI chips, maintaining strict semiconductor export controls despite recent diplomatic progress between the two nations. Speaking to CBS News, Trump declared that "the most advanced, we will not let anybody have them other than the United States," referring specifically to Nvidia's flagship Blackwell GPUs including the B100, B200, and Blackwell Ultra B300 models

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Source: Market Screener

Source: Market Screener

This position was subsequently reinforced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC that while Blackwell chips represent "the crown jewel" of current AI technology, there may be opportunities for China to access them in the future when they become outdated

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. Bessent suggested that "given the incredible innovation that goes on at Nvidia, where the Blackwell chips may be two, three, four down their chip stack in terms of efficacy, and at that point they could be sold on."

Diplomatic Discussions and Trade Implications

The semiconductor restrictions remained a contentious issue even during recent diplomatic engagement between the two superpowers. Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in South Korea, where they reached a historic trade truce pausing the ongoing trade war for one year

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. However, Trump later confirmed that Blackwell chips were not discussed during their private conversations, stating "we did discuss chips" but clarifying that "they're going to be talking to Nvidia and others about taking chips"

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Source: Economic Times

Source: Economic Times

Prior to the meeting, Trump had signaled potential discussions about Nvidia's "super duper chip," referring to the GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip, claiming the technology puts the U.S. "about 10 years ahead of anybody else in chips" .

Market Impact and Industry Response

The export restrictions have had dramatic consequences for Nvidia's business in China. CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged that the company is now "100% out of China," describing a collapse from "95% market share to 0%" as both U.S. export controls and Chinese procurement policies squeezed the company from both sides

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. Huang stated that "in all of our forecasts, we assume zero for China," effectively eliminating what was once roughly a quarter of Nvidia's data-center revenue.

Source: Economic Times

Source: Economic Times

Beijing has responded by warning state-linked firms against purchasing Nvidia products over national security concerns and encouraging procurement of domestic alternatives such as Huawei's Ascend line

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. This dual pressure from both governments has created an unprecedented situation where a major technology market has been completely severed.

Future Technology Access and Policy Framework

The current policy framework requires chipmakers like AMD and Nvidia to share 15% of their revenue from Chinese sales with Washington, a requirement that would extend to any future China-specific variants

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. Rumors suggest Nvidia is developing a B30A China-exclusive variant featuring half the performance and memory of the regular B300, designed to meet export control requirements, though no official announcement has been made.

Bessent noted that technological evolution outpaces negotiation timelines, meaning "the silicon is what leads the conversation." He suggested that by the time any potential deal could be struck, next-generation products might already be available, potentially rendering current discussions obsolete

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. With Nvidia's Vera Rubin architecture expected to succeed Blackwell next year, the timeline for potential Chinese access to current-generation technology remains uncertain.

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